Best MLB earned runs matchups — Saturday, May 23, 2026
Every starting pitcher on the Saturday, May 23, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by projected earned runs allowed. Run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Results show how each call played out.
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload9.5 BF
Expected batters faced9.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.1 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Willy Adames (R)11.7%1.4
2. Luis Arraez (L)11.7%1.0
3. Casey Schmitt (R)11.7%1.0
4. Rafael Devers (L)11.7%1.0
5. Matt Chapman (R)11.7%1.0
6. Daniel Susac (R)11.7%1.0
7. Bryce Eldridge (L)11.7%1.0
8. Harrison Bader (R)11.7%1.0
9. Drew Gilbert (L)11.7%1.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 0.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+210-300
We project 1.1 ER vs the 0.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload9.9 BF
Expected batters faced9.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.1 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Byron Buxton (R)11.7%1.9
2. James Outman (L)11.7%1.0
3. Austin Martin (R)11.7%1.0
4. Josh Bell (R)11.7%1.0
5. Kody Clemens (L)11.7%1.0
6. Victor Caratini (R)11.7%1.0
7. Orlando Arcia (R)11.7%1.0
8. Brooks Lee (R)11.7%1.0
9. Ryan Kreidler (R)11.7%1.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 0.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+200-300
We project 1.1 ER vs the 0.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload13.5 BF
Expected batters faced13.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)11.7%2.0
2. Alex Bregman (R)11.7%2.0
3. Michael Busch (L)11.7%2.0
4. Nico Hoerner (R)11.7%2.0
5. Kevin Alcántara (R)11.7%1.6
6. Seiya Suzuki (R)11.7%1.0
7. Moisés Ballesteros (L)11.7%1.0
8. Carson Kelly (R)11.7%1.0
9. Dansby Swanson (R)11.7%1.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload19.5 BF
Expected batters faced19.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.2 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Danny Jansen (R)11.7%3.0
2. Brandon Nimmo (L)11.7%2.5
3. Michael Helman (R)11.7%2.0
4. Andrew McCutchen (R)11.7%2.0
5. Jake Burger (R)11.7%2.0
6. Evan Carter (L)11.7%2.0
7. Ezequiel Duran (R)11.7%2.0
8. Justin Foscue (R)11.7%2.0
9. Kyle Higashioka (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+120-175
DKDraftKings+106-140
FANFanatics+120-170
We project 2.2 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.5%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.4 BF
Expected batters faced21.4
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.4 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Ketel Marte (L)11.7%3.0
2. Corbin Carroll (L)11.7%3.0
3. Geraldo Perdomo (L)11.7%3.0
4. Nolan Arenado (R)11.7%2.4
5. Ildemaro Vargas (L)11.7%2.0
6. Gabriel Moreno (R)11.7%2.0
7. Jose Fernandez (R)11.7%2.0
8. Tim Tawa (R)11.7%2.0
9. Ryan Waldschmidt (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
DKDraftKings-156+117
We project 2.4 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)6.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.5 BF
Expected batters faced21.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.4 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Nick Gonzales (R)11.7%3.0
2. Konnor Griffin (R)11.7%3.0
3. Bryan Reynolds (R)11.7%3.0
4. Marcell Ozuna (R)11.7%2.5
5. Spencer Horwitz (L)11.7%2.0
6. Jhostynxon Garcia (R)11.7%2.0
7. Brandon Lowe (L)11.7%2.0
8. Oneil Cruz (L)11.7%2.0
9. Endy Rodríguez (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-125-115
DKDraftKings-103-129
We project 2.4 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.6 BF
Expected batters faced21.6
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.4 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. JJ Wetherholt (L)11.7%3.0
2. Iván Herrera (R)11.7%3.0
3. Alec Burleson (L)11.7%3.0
4. Jordan Walker (R)11.7%2.6
5. Nolan Gorman (L)11.7%2.0
6. Masyn Winn (R)11.7%2.0
7. Bryan Torres (L)11.7%2.0
8. César Prieto (L)11.7%2.0
9. Victor Scott II (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.7 BF
Expected batters faced21.7
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Ronald Acuña Jr. (R)11.7%3.0
2. Michael Harris II (L)11.7%3.0
3. Matt Olson (L)11.7%3.0
4. Ozzie Albies (L)11.7%2.7
5. Dominic Smith (L)11.7%2.0
6. Austin Riley (R)11.7%2.0
7. Mauricio Dubón (R)11.7%2.0
8. Mike Yastrzemski (L)11.7%2.0
9. Chadwick Tromp (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-145+105
BOVBovada-135-105
DKDraftKings-151+114
FANFanatics-135-105
We project 2.5 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.2 BF
Expected batters faced22.2
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)11.7%3.0
2. Miguel Andujar (R)11.7%3.0
3. Gavin Sheets (L)11.7%3.0
4. Manny Machado (R)11.7%3.0
5. Bryce Johnson (L)11.7%2.2
6. Jackson Merrill (L)11.7%2.0
7. Ty France (R)11.7%2.0
8. Freddy Fermin (R)11.7%2.0
9. Sung-Mun Song (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+120-165
BOVBovada+130-170
We project 2.5 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.2 BF
Expected batters faced22.2
From recent starts1
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Shohei Ohtani (L)11.7%3.0
2. Mookie Betts (R)11.7%3.0
3. Freddie Freeman (L)11.7%3.0
4. Andy Pages (R)11.7%3.0
5. Will Smith (R)11.7%2.3
6. Kyle Tucker (L)11.7%2.0
7. Teoscar Hernández (R)11.7%2.0
8. Miguel Rojas (R)11.7%2.0
9. Santiago Espinal (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-120-115
DKDraftKings+101-134
FANFanatics-125-115
We project 2.5 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.2 BF
Expected batters faced22.2
From recent starts1
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Carlos Cortes (L)11.7%3.0
2. Nick Kurtz (L)11.7%3.0
3. Shea Langeliers (R)11.7%3.0
4. Brent Rooker (R)11.7%3.0
5. Tyler Soderstrom (L)11.7%2.3
6. Zack Gelof (R)11.7%2.0
7. Henry Bolte (R)11.7%2.0
8. Jeff McNeil (L)11.7%2.0
9. Darell Hernaiz (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-140+100
DKDraftKings-116-115
FANFanatics-140+100
We project 2.5 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.3 BF
Expected batters faced22.3
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Jake McCarthy (L)11.7%3.0
2. Hunter Goodman (R)11.7%3.0
3. TJ Rumfield (L)11.7%3.0
4. Tyler Freeman (R)11.7%3.0
5. Troy Johnston (L)11.7%2.3
6. Ezequiel Tovar (R)11.7%2.0
7. Sterlin Thompson (L)11.7%2.0
8. Chad Stevens (R)11.7%2.0
9. Kyle Karros (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+105-150
BOVBovada+110-150
DKDraftKings+103-137
FANFanatics+105-150
We project 2.5 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)21.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.5 BF
Expected batters faced22.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. George Springer (R)11.7%3.0
2. Daulton Varsho (L)11.7%3.0
3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)11.7%3.0
4. Davis Schneider (R)11.7%3.0
5. Myles Straw (R)11.7%2.5
6. Ernie Clement (R)11.7%2.0
7. Andrés Giménez (L)11.7%2.0
8. Kazuma Okamoto (R)11.7%2.0
9. Tyler Heineman (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-125-110
BOVBovada-125-115
DKDraftKings-120-110
FANFanatics-125-115
We project 2.5 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.5 BF
Expected batters faced22.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. James Wood (L)11.7%3.0
2. Luis García Jr. (L)11.7%3.0
3. José Tena (L)11.7%3.0
4. CJ Abrams (L)11.7%3.0
5. Dylan Crews (R)11.7%2.5
6. Jacob Young (R)11.7%2.0
7. Nasim Nuñez (L)11.7%2.0
8. Jorbit Vivas (L)11.7%2.0
9. Keibert Ruiz (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+110-155
DKDraftKings+116-154
We project 2.5 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.6 BF
Expected batters faced22.6
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Jeremy Peña (R)11.7%3.0
2. Isaac Paredes (R)11.7%3.0
3. Zach Dezenzo (R)11.7%3.0
4. Christian Walker (R)11.7%3.0
5. Jake Meyers (R)11.7%2.6
6. Cam Smith (R)11.7%2.0
7. Nick Allen (R)11.7%2.0
8. Brice Matthews (R)11.7%2.0
9. César Salazar (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-185+125
BOVBovada-180+140
DKDraftKings-146+110
FANFanatics-180+125
We project 2.6 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.7 BF
Expected batters faced22.7
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Blake Dunn (R)11.7%3.0
2. Elly De La Cruz (L)11.7%3.0
3. JJ Bleday (L)11.7%3.0
4. Sal Stewart (R)11.7%3.0
5. Eugenio Suárez (R)11.7%2.7
6. Matt McLain (R)11.7%2.0
7. Spencer Steer (R)11.7%2.0
8. P.J. Higgins (R)11.7%2.0
9. Dane Myers (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
BOVBovada-150+110
DKDraftKings-148+111
FANFanatics-155+110
We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.7 BF
Expected batters faced22.7
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Carson Benge (L)11.7%3.0
2. Bo Bichette (R)11.7%3.0
3. Juan Soto (L)11.7%3.0
4. Tyrone Taylor (R)11.7%3.0
5. Mark Vientos (R)11.7%2.7
6. A.J. Ewing (L)11.7%2.0
7. Marcus Semien (R)11.7%2.0
8. MJ Melendez (L)11.7%2.0
9. Luis Torrens (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+125-175
BOVBovada+150-200
We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.5%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.7 BF
Expected batters faced22.7
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Jackson Chourio (R)11.7%3.0
2. Brice Turang (L)11.7%3.0
3. Andrew Vaughn (R)11.7%3.0
4. Christian Yelich (L)11.7%3.0
5. Gary Sánchez (R)11.7%2.7
6. Jake Bauers (L)11.7%2.0
7. Blake Perkins (L)11.7%2.0
8. Joey Ortiz (R)11.7%2.0
9. David Hamilton (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+100-145
BOVBovada+100-140
DKDraftKings+113-151
We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)6.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.0 BF
Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts1
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. JJ Wetherholt (L)11.7%3.0
2. Iván Herrera (R)11.7%3.0
3. Alec Burleson (L)11.7%3.0
4. Jordan Walker (R)11.7%3.0
5. Thomas Saggese (R)11.7%3.0
6. Masyn Winn (R)11.7%2.0
7. Bryan Torres (L)11.7%2.0
8. Yohel Pozo (R)11.7%2.0
9. Victor Scott II (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
BOVBovada-125-115
DKDraftKings-119-111
We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.0 BF
Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts3
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. J.P. Crawford (L)11.7%3.0
2. Julio Rodríguez (R)11.7%3.0
3. Josh Naylor (L)11.7%3.0
4. Randy Arozarena (R)11.7%3.0
5. Luke Raley (L)11.7%3.0
6. Cole Young (L)11.7%2.0
7. Dominic Canzone (L)11.7%2.0
8. Jhonny Pereda (R)11.7%2.0
9. Colt Emerson (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-130-110
DKDraftKings-113-117
FANFanatics-130-110
We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.2 BF
Expected batters faced23.2
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Trea Turner (R)11.7%3.0
2. Kyle Schwarber (L)11.7%3.0
3. Bryce Harper (L)11.7%3.0
4. Alec Bohm (R)11.7%3.0
5. Brandon Marsh (L)11.7%3.0
6. Bryson Stott (L)11.7%2.2
7. J.T. Realmuto (R)11.7%2.0
8. Adolis García (R)11.7%2.0
9. Justin Crawford (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-145+100
DKDraftKings-129-103
FANFanatics-140+100
We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.5 BF
Expected batters faced23.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Sam Antonacci (L)11.7%3.0
2. Munetaka Murakami (L)11.7%3.0
3. Miguel Vargas (R)11.7%3.0
4. Colson Montgomery (L)11.7%3.0
5. Chase Meidroth (R)11.7%3.0
6. Andrew Benintendi (L)11.7%2.5
7. Randal Grichuk (R)11.7%2.0
8. Derek Hill (R)11.7%2.0
9. Drew Romo (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-130-110
DKDraftKings-115-115
FANFanatics-130-110
We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.6 BF
Expected batters faced23.6
From recent starts5
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Travis Bazzana (L)11.7%3.0
2. José Ramírez (L)11.7%3.0
3. Chase DeLauter (L)11.7%3.0
4. Kyle Manzardo (L)11.7%3.0
5. Rhys Hoskins (R)11.7%3.0
6. Daniel Schneemann (L)11.7%2.6
7. Angel Martínez (L)11.7%2.0
8. Steven Kwan (L)11.7%2.0
9. Patrick Bailey (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-145+100
DKDraftKings-129-103
We project 2.7 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.5%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.6 BF
Expected batters faced23.6
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Xavier Edwards (L)11.7%3.0
2. Liam Hicks (L)11.7%3.0
3. Otto Lopez (R)11.7%3.0
4. Kyle Stowers (L)11.7%3.0
5. Jakob Marsee (L)11.7%3.0
6. Connor Norby (R)11.7%2.6
7. Owen Caissie (L)11.7%2.0
8. Graham Pauley (L)11.7%2.0
9. Joe Mack (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+110-155
DKDraftKings+115-152
FANFanatics+110-155
We project 2.7 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.7 BF
Expected batters faced23.7
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. JJ Bleday (L)11.7%3.0
2. Elly De La Cruz (L)11.7%3.0
3. Sal Stewart (R)11.7%3.0
4. Nathaniel Lowe (L)11.7%3.0
5. Eugenio Suárez (R)11.7%3.0
6. Spencer Steer (R)11.7%2.7
7. Blake Dunn (R)11.7%2.0
8. Tyler Stephenson (R)11.7%2.0
9. TJ Friedl (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.4 BF
Expected batters faced24.4
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Jarren Duran (L)11.7%3.0
2. Mickey Gasper (L)11.7%3.0
3. Wilyer Abreu (L)11.7%3.0
4. Willson Contreras (R)11.7%3.0
5. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)11.7%3.0
6. Nick Sogard (L)11.7%3.0
7. Caleb Durbin (R)11.7%2.4
8. Connor Wong (R)11.7%2.0
9. Isiah Kiner-Falefa (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-165+120
BOVBovada-150+110
DKDraftKings-143+107
We project 2.7 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.9 BF
Expected batters faced24.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.8 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Maikel Garcia (R)11.7%3.0
2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)11.7%3.0
3. Vinnie Pasquantino (L)11.7%3.0
4. Salvador Perez (R)11.7%3.0
5. Carter Jensen (L)11.7%3.0
6. Jac Caglianone (L)11.7%3.0
7. Isaac Collins (L)11.7%2.9
8. Michael Massey (L)11.7%2.0
9. Kyle Isbel (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+105-150
DKDraftKings+112-149
We project 2.8 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.9 BF
Expected batters faced24.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.8 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Zach Neto (R)11.7%3.0
2. Mike Trout (R)11.7%3.0
3. Vaughn Grissom (R)11.7%3.0
4. Jorge Soler (R)11.7%3.0
5. Jo Adell (R)11.7%3.0
6. Jose Siri (R)11.7%3.0
7. Oswald Peraza (R)11.7%2.9
8. Sebastián Rivero (R)11.7%2.0
9. Donovan Walton (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
DKDraftKings-155+116
We project 2.8 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
21 with a ERLive count — updates as games play
1
Michael LorenzenP
COL@AZ· proj #5
5ERFinal
T1
Kyle LeahyP
STL@CIN· proj #16
5ERFinal
3
Robert GasserP
MILvsLAD· proj #10
4ERFinal
T3
Paul SkenesP
PIT@TOR· proj #13
4ERFinal
T3
Chase PettyP
CINvsSTL· proj #19
4ERFinal
T3
Freddy PeraltaP
NYM@MIA· proj #24
4ERFinal
7
Chris PaddackP
CINvsSTL· proj #7
3ERFinal
T7
Zac GallenP
AZvsCOL· proj #12
3ERFinal
T7
Colin ReaP
CHCvsHOU· proj #15
3ERFinal
T7
Slade CecconiP
CLE@PHI· proj #21
3ERFinal
T7
Adrian HouserP
SFvsCWS· proj #22
3ERFinal
T7
George KirbyP
SEA@KC· proj #27
3ERFinal
T7
Nathan EovaldiP
TEX@LAA· proj #28
3ERFinal
14
Jovani MoránP
BOSvsMIN· proj #2
2ERFinal
T14
J.T. GinnP
ATH@SD· proj #9
2ERFinal
T14
Grant HolmesP
ATLvsWSH· proj #14
2ERFinal
T14
Roki SasakiP
LAD@MIL· proj #18
2ERFinal
18
Walbert UreñaP
LAAvsTEX· proj #4
1ERFinal
T18
Patrick CorbinP
TORvsPIT· proj #6
1ERFinal
T18
Andre PallanteP
STL@CIN· proj #25
1ERFinal
T18
Taj BradleyP
MIN@BOS· proj #26
1ERFinal
How the board graded
Share of our top-ranked hitters that hit the mark, next to the season-to-date rate.
Top 5
2/450%
season 52%-2 pts-4% ROI
Top 10
5/863%
season 52%+11 pts-6% ROI
Top 20
10/1856%
season building
Top 50
15/2560%
season building
Full slate
15/2560%
season 49%+11 pts-9% ROI
“Hit” is the green check on the card — the mark. Pools are our pre-game top-ranked matchups; only settled (final) outcomes count. Season-to-date is every graded day this season.
Best MLB Earned Runs Matchups — Saturday, May 23, 2026
Bryan Hudson (CWS) is the top earned runs spot on the Saturday, May 23, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 1.1 ER, with Jovani Morán (BOS) right behind. Every starter is ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. It's the read DFS and pitcher-prop players make before lock.
Top spot: Bryan Hudson
Bryan Hudson (CWS) tops the Saturday, May 23, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 1.1 ER vs SF. Run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes.
The rest of the top of the board
Jovani Morán (BOS) (97) — about 1.1 ER vs MIN.
Kai-Wei Teng (HOU) (74) — about 1.5 ER vs CHC.
Walbert Ureña (LAA) (35) — about 2.2 ER vs TEX.
Michael Lorenzen (COL) (23) — about 2.4 ER vs AZ.
Patrick Corbin (TOR) (22) — about 2.4 ER vs PIT.
How it played out
The top 10 starts averaged 1.8 ER. Bryan Hudson finished with 0. Every projection is graded against the box score.
How to read the earned runs board
Each starter's score (0–100) ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. We project a earned runs count for the start and grade it against what actually happened.
Which pitcher has the best earned runs matchup today (Saturday, May 23, 2026)?
Bryan Hudson (CWS) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 1.1 ER against SF.
What are the best pitcher earned runs props today?
The top projected starts on Saturday, May 23, 2026: Bryan Hudson (~1.1 ER), Jovani Morán (~1.1 ER), Kai-Wei Teng (~1.5 ER), Walbert Ureña (~2.2 ER), Michael Lorenzen (~2.4 ER). The full board ranks every starter.
How is the earned runs score calculated?
Ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected earned runs count alongside, and graded against the box score.
Can I use this for pitcher props or DFS?
Yes — the board surfaces the best earned runs spots and projects a number. Where there's a posted line we show the over/under and which side our projection leans. We show the data and grade it, not picks.
