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Best MLB earned runs matchups — Thursday, July 23, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Thursday, July 23, 2026 slate — ranked by projected earned runs allowed. Tap any card for the full breakdown.

12:15 PM ETSDSDawayATLATLhomeTop matchup1001:10 PM ETMINMINawayCLECLEhomeTop matchup303:07 PM ETTBTBawayTORTORhomeTop matchup785:15 PM ETAZAZawaySTLSTLhomeTop matchup876:40 PM ETKCKCawayDETDEThomeTop matchup77
PROJ10 on a projected lineup — updates ~2h before first pitch
#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher earned runs Rate6.4% Runs / BF

vs LHB7.8%
vs RHB7.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)22.7%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection1.8 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)13.4%3.0
2. Luis Rengifo (R)11.5%3.0
3. Manny Machado (R)12.3%3.0
4. Ty France (R)12.4%3.0
5. Jackson Merrill (L)10.8%3.0
6. Luis Campusano (R)12.6%2.1
7. Xander Bogaerts (R)11.0%2.0
8. Jake Cronenworth (L)10.7%2.0
9. Jase Bowen (R)11.7%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Chris Sale's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate11.3% Runs / BF

vs LHB9.9%
vs RHB13.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.5%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload16.3 BF

Expected batters faced16.3
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection1.9 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. JJ Wetherholt (L)14.4%2.0
2. Iván Herrera (R)11.4%2.0
3. Alec Burleson (L)12.6%2.0
4. Jordan Walker (R)12.0%2.0
5. Lars Nootbaar (L)12.2%2.0
6. Masyn Winn (R)9.3%2.0
7. Nathan Church (L)9.0%2.0
8. Blaze Jordan (R)10.7%1.3
9. José Fermín (R)9.0%1.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Brandon Pfaadt's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate9.3% Runs / BF

vs LHB6.9%
vs RHB12.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.8%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.1 BF

Expected batters faced22.1
From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.0 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Yandy Díaz (R)12.2%3.0
2. Jonathan Aranda (L)9.8%3.0
3. Junior Caminero (R)11.1%3.0
4. Cedric Mullins (L)11.5%3.0
5. Chandler Simpson (L)11.5%2.1
6. Victor Mesa Jr. (L)14.2%2.0
7. Taylor Walls (L)12.5%2.0
8. Richie Palacios (L)13.0%2.0
9. Hunter Feduccia (L)10.3%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Shane Bieber's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate6.8% Runs / BF

vs LHB9.5%
vs RHB6.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)21.8%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.5 BF

Expected batters faced23.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.0 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Carter Jensen (L)11.0%3.0
2. Lane Thomas (R)10.5%3.0
3. Vinnie Pasquantino (L)11.1%3.0
4. Salvador Perez (R)10.1%3.0
5. Michael Massey (L)13.4%3.0
6. Isaac Collins (L)11.2%2.5
7. Starling Marte (R)10.7%2.0
8. Josh Rojas (L)11.7%2.0
9. Andrew Velazquez (L)11.7%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Troy Melton's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate7.6% Runs / BF

vs LHB8.1%
vs RHB9.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)5.2%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.8 BF

Expected batters faced21.8
From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.1 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Kevin McGonigle (L)14.2%3.0
2. Dillon Dingler (R)13.6%3.0
3. Colt Keith (L)12.8%3.0
4. Riley Greene (L)14.7%2.8
5. Spencer Torkelson (R)11.2%2.0
6. Kerry Carpenter (L)11.7%2.0
7. Zach McKinstry (L)11.7%2.0
8. Hao-Yu Lee (R)11.3%2.0
9. James Outman (L)11.2%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Randy Dobnak's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate8.3% Runs / BF

vs LHB8.2%
vs RHB9.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.2%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.2 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Ketel Marte (L)11.7%3.0
2. Geraldo Perdomo (L)14.4%3.0
3. Corbin Carroll (L)14.0%3.0
4. Adrian Del Castillo (L)12.6%3.0
5. Max Kepler (L)11.5%3.0
6. Pavin Smith (L)10.9%2.4
7. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (R)10.4%2.0
8. Ildemaro Vargas (L)11.6%2.0
9. Tommy Troy (R)12.6%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+100-135
DKDraftKings-103-129
FANFanatics-105-135

We project 2.2 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Michael McGreevy's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate11.3% Runs / BF

vs LHB9.8%
vs RHB12.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.3%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.5 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Trevor Larnach (L)13.1%3.0
2. Brooks Lee (L)10.4%3.0
3. Kody Clemens (L)11.3%3.0
4. Josh Bell (L)10.8%3.0
5. Royce Lewis (R)12.3%2.8
6. Victor Caratini (L)10.1%2.0
7. Alan Roden (L)9.7%2.0
8. Luke Keaschall (R)11.8%2.0
9. Alex Jackson (R)11.9%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Gavin Williams's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate14.0% Runs / BF

vs LHB15.8%
vs RHB11.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.4%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload19.8 BF

Expected batters faced19.8
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.7 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Ernie Clement (R)12.0%3.0
2. Nathan Lukes (L)10.9%2.8
3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)13.8%2.0
4. George Springer (R)10.7%2.0
5. Yohendrick Piñango (L)11.7%2.0
6. Alejandro Kirk (R)9.2%2.0
7. Daulton Varsho (L)12.0%2.0
8. Sean Keys (L)11.7%2.0
9. Andrés Giménez (L)9.5%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Ian Seymour's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate13.0% Runs / BF

vs LHB12.5%
vs RHB12.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.5%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload19.5 BF

Expected batters faced19.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.8 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Drake Baldwin (L)14.1%3.0
2. Ozzie Albies (L)11.7%2.5
3. Matt Olson (L)14.5%2.0
4. Michael Harris II (L)11.6%2.0
5. Austin Riley (R)12.8%2.0
6. Mike Yastrzemski (L)13.7%2.0
7. Mauricio Dubón (R)10.6%2.0
8. Jim Jarvis (L)11.7%2.0
9. Brewer Hicklen (R)13.9%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Griffin Canning's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate11.3% Runs / BF

vs LHB11.0%
vs RHB11.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.1%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.0 BF

Expected batters faced24.0
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.8 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Steven Kwan (L)12.3%3.0
2. José Ramírez (L)11.7%3.0
3. Chase DeLauter (L)9.4%3.0
4. Brayan Rocchio (L)10.7%3.0
5. Travis Bazzana (L)12.2%3.0
6. Kyle Manzardo (L)11.7%3.0
7. Daniel Schneemann (L)11.7%2.0
8. Patrick Bailey (L)11.7%2.0
9. Petey Halpin (L)15.6%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Taj Bradley's full player page →

What the earned runs allowed board is

The Earned Runs board projects how many earned runs a starter gives up vs his line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

  • His run-prevention rate vs the lineup's hand.
  • The park.
  • Projected length of outing.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Efficiently priced — transparency board. It's also a core input to our team run model (moneyline + team totals), where the edge actually lives.

How to use it

Read it for who's in line for a clean or rough outing; the bettable version is the team-total board it feeds.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays