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Best MLB earned runs matchups — Friday, July 24, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Friday, July 24, 2026 slate — ranked by projected earned runs allowed. Tap any card for the full breakdown.

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PROJ28 on a projected lineup — updates ~2h before first pitch
#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload9.6 BF

Expected batters faced9.6
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection1.2 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Kevin McGonigle (L)13.4%1.6
2. Gleyber Torres (R)11.7%1.0
3. Colt Keith (L)11.9%1.0
4. Riley Greene (L)15.5%1.0
5. Dillon Dingler (R)13.5%1.0
6. Kerry Carpenter (L)10.4%1.0
7. Spencer Torkelson (R)13.8%1.0
8. Zach McKinstry (L)9.8%1.0
9. James Outman (L)10.9%1.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Beck Way's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate16.2% Runs / BF

vs LHB15.8%
vs RHB13.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.6%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload12.3 BF

Expected batters faced12.3
From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection1.8 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Corbin Carroll (L)13.4%2.0
2. Geraldo Perdomo (R)10.5%2.0
3. Gabriel Moreno (R)12.4%2.0
4. Max Kepler (L)10.5%1.3
5. Adrian Del Castillo (L)8.8%1.0
6. Tim Tawa (R)11.8%1.0
7. Ildemaro Vargas (R)10.5%1.0
8. Tyler Locklear (R)10.4%1.0
9. Ryan Waldschmidt (R)10.9%1.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Carson Palmquist's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate7.5% Runs / BF

vs LHB8.6%
vs RHB7.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)23.5%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.5 BF

Expected batters faced22.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection1.8 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Carter Jensen (L)10.9%3.0
2. Lane Thomas (R)11.8%3.0
3. Vinnie Pasquantino (L)12.6%3.0
4. Salvador Perez (R)10.5%3.0
5. Michael Massey (L)11.2%2.5
6. Isaac Collins (R)11.3%2.0
7. Josh Rojas (L)9.2%2.0
8. Nick Loftin (R)12.1%2.0
9. Andrew Velazquez (R)11.7%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Tarik Skubal's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate8.0% Runs / BF

vs LHB8.1%
vs RHB9.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.5%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.1 BF

Expected batters faced22.1
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection1.9 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Trent Grisham (L)11.7%3.0
2. Ben Rice (L)11.4%3.0
3. Paul Goldschmidt (R)11.7%3.0
4. Cody Bellinger (L)13.1%3.0
5. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)11.7%2.1
6. Jasson Domínguez (R)11.7%2.0
7. Anthony Volpe (R)11.1%2.0
8. Ryan McMahon (L)11.7%2.0
9. Ali Sánchez (R)6.0%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Jesús Luzardo's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate9.4% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.6%
vs RHB9.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.9%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload19.2 BF

Expected batters faced19.2
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.2 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)14.9%3.0
2. Seiya Suzuki (R)14.7%2.2
3. Michael Busch (L)12.6%2.0
4. Alex Bregman (R)12.3%2.0
5. Ian Happ (L)12.7%2.0
6. Nico Hoerner (R)10.8%2.0
7. Michael Conforto (L)11.5%2.0
8. Carson Kelly (R)10.0%2.0
9. Dansby Swanson (R)12.8%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Jared Jones's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate11.3% Runs / BF

vs LHB13.8%
vs RHB9.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.4%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.2 BF

Expected batters faced22.2
From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.2 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Yohendrick Piñango (L)11.7%3.0
2. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)13.8%3.0
3. Ernie Clement (R)12.0%3.0
4. George Springer (R)10.7%3.0
5. Alejandro Kirk (R)10.2%2.2
6. Kazuma Okamoto (R)10.5%2.0
7. Davis Schneider (R)12.2%2.0
8. Luis Urías (R)10.6%2.0
9. Myles Straw (R)10.1%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Patrick Sandoval's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.9% Runs / BF

vs LHB9.3%
vs RHB12.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.3%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload18.5 BF

Expected batters faced18.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.3 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Brooks Lee (R)8.6%2.5
2. Byron Buxton (R)13.3%2.0
3. Ryan Jeffers (R)11.5%2.0
4. Josh Bell (R)12.0%2.0
5. Kody Clemens (L)11.7%2.0
6. Royce Lewis (R)12.2%2.0
7. Austin Martin (R)11.9%2.0
8. Luke Keaschall (R)10.9%2.0
9. Ryan Kreidler (R)11.4%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Jacob Lopez's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.5% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.9%
vs RHB9.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.9%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.5 BF

Expected batters faced22.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.3 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Wyatt Langford (R)12.7%3.0
2. Justin Foscue (R)10.9%3.0
3. Jake Burger (R)10.0%3.0
4. Brandon Nimmo (L)9.2%3.0
5. Ezequiel Duran (R)13.4%2.5
6. Cam Cauley (R)11.7%2.0
7. Elias Díaz (R)10.1%2.0
8. Alejandro Osuna (L)10.9%2.0
9. Nicky Lopez (L)11.2%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Bryce Miller's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate9.4% Runs / BF

vs LHB7.9%
vs RHB11.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.1%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload20.5 BF

Expected batters faced20.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.3 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Taylor Ward (R)11.7%3.0
2. Pete Alonso (R)11.7%3.0
3. Gunnar Henderson (L)14.3%2.5
4. Tyler O'Neill (R)11.7%2.0
5. Coby Mayo (R)11.3%2.0
6. Leody Taveras (L)11.7%2.0
7. Christian Encarnacion-Strand (R)10.8%2.0
8. Jackson Holliday (L)11.7%2.0
9. Sam Huff (R)11.7%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Grant Holmes's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.0% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.4%
vs RHB10.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.1%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.0 BF

Expected batters faced21.0
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.3 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Trea Turner (R)11.7%3.0
2. Kyle Schwarber (L)11.7%3.0
3. Bryce Harper (L)12.9%3.0
4. Alec Bohm (R)8.8%2.0
5. Edmundo Sosa (R)11.7%2.0
6. Derek Hill (R)15.4%2.0
7. Bryan De La Cruz (R)9.4%2.0
8. Bryson Stott (L)11.4%2.0
9. Rafael Marchán (L)11.7%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Will Warren's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.0% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB9.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.7%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.3 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Nick Gonzales (R)11.7%3.0
2. Jared Triolo (R)11.7%3.0
3. Bryan Reynolds (R)11.2%3.0
4. Esmerlyn Valdez (R)11.7%3.0
5. Ryan O'Hearn (L)11.7%2.6
6. Marcell Ozuna (R)11.7%2.0
7. Brandon Lowe (L)13.7%2.0
8. Rafael Flores Jr. (R)11.7%2.0
9. Billy Cook (R)12.8%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Matthew Boyd's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.0% Runs / BF

vs LHB8.3%
vs RHB11.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.3%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.2 BF

Expected batters faced22.2
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.4 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Steven Kwan (L)12.8%3.0
2. José Ramírez (R)15.2%3.0
3. Chase DeLauter (L)12.9%3.0
4. Brayan Rocchio (R)12.0%3.0
5. Travis Bazzana (L)10.6%2.2
6. Rhys Hoskins (R)12.2%2.0
7. Kyle Manzardo (L)10.8%2.0
8. Patrick Bailey (R)11.1%2.0
9. Petey Halpin (L)11.1%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Shane McClanahan's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.2% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.1%
vs RHB11.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.9%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.9 BF

Expected batters faced21.9
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.4 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. A.J. Ewing (L)9.9%3.0
2. Francisco Lindor (L)13.7%3.0
3. Bo Bichette (R)10.8%3.0
4. Carson Benge (L)11.5%2.9
5. Jorge Polanco (L)11.7%2.0
6. Jared Young (L)11.4%2.0
7. Marcus Semien (R)11.7%2.0
8. Brett Baty (L)13.9%2.0
9. Francisco Alvarez (R)11.2%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Roki Sasaki's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.7 BF

Expected batters faced23.7
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.6 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Cole Young (L)10.7%3.0
2. Julio Rodríguez (R)11.7%3.0
3. Dominic Canzone (L)10.4%3.0
4. Randy Arozarena (R)11.7%3.0
5. Josh Naylor (L)11.7%3.0
6. Cal Raleigh (R)11.5%2.7
7. Luke Raley (L)11.7%2.0
8. Weston Wilson (R)11.7%2.0
9. Colt Emerson (L)10.4%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

MacKenzie Gore's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate14.4% Runs / BF

vs LHB16.0%
vs RHB9.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.4%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload20.2 BF

Expected batters faced20.2
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.6 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness10.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. JJ Wetherholt (L)14.0%3.0
2. Jordan Walker (R)11.5%3.0
3. Alec Burleson (L)12.8%2.2
4. Lars Nootbaar (L)12.6%2.0
5. Masyn Winn (R)9.3%2.0
6. José Fermín (R)9.1%2.0
7. Nathan Church (L)9.2%2.0
8. Blaze Jordan (R)10.7%2.0
9. Jimmy Crooks (L)9.3%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Rhett Lowder's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate12.8% Runs / BF

vs LHB11.7%
vs RHB12.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.8%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload20.7 BF

Expected batters faced20.7
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.7 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Elly De La Cruz (L)11.7%3.0
2. Sal Stewart (R)11.5%3.0
3. JJ Bleday (L)12.6%2.7
4. Spencer Steer (R)11.7%2.0
5. Nathaniel Lowe (L)11.7%2.0
6. Tyler Stephenson (R)12.1%2.0
7. Dane Myers (R)9.6%2.0
8. Edwin Arroyo (L)11.7%2.0
9. Ke'Bryan Hayes (R)11.7%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Dustin May's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.3% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.4%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.5 BF

Expected batters faced23.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.7 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Yandy Díaz (R)14.5%3.0
2. Jonathan Aranda (L)11.9%3.0
3. Junior Caminero (R)15.1%3.0
4. Victor Mesa Jr. (L)12.7%3.0
5. Jonny DeLuca (R)9.6%3.0
6. Chandler Simpson (L)12.4%2.5
7. Ben Williamson (R)11.5%2.0
8. Richie Palacios (L)12.3%2.0
9. Hunter Feduccia (L)9.1%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Joey Cantillo's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate11.5% Runs / BF

vs LHB11.2%
vs RHB11.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.4%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.4 BF

Expected batters faced22.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.7 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Shohei Ohtani (L)13.6%3.0
2. Andy Pages (R)13.2%3.0
3. Freddie Freeman (L)11.7%3.0
4. Max Muncy (L)12.4%3.0
5. Mookie Betts (R)11.7%2.4
6. Kyle Tucker (L)10.5%2.0
7. Teoscar Hernández (R)10.9%2.0
8. Tommy Edman (R)12.8%2.0
9. Dalton Rushing (L)10.7%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Sean Manaea's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate11.3% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.4%
vs RHB11.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.6%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload25.4 BF

Expected batters faced25.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.7 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness10.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Zach Neto (R)11.7%3.0
2. Mike Trout (R)11.3%3.0
3. Nolan Schanuel (L)8.6%3.0
4. Vaughn Grissom (R)10.3%3.0
5. Jo Adell (R)9.7%3.0
6. Wade Meckler (L)11.7%3.0
7. Oswald Peraza (R)11.7%3.0
8. Josh Lowe (L)11.0%2.4
9. Tyler Heineman (L)11.9%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Logan Webb's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate13.1% Runs / BF

vs LHB12.9%
vs RHB12.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)7.3%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload20.8 BF

Expected batters faced20.8
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.7 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Otto Lopez (R)12.1%3.0
2. Kyle Stowers (L)10.3%3.0
3. Heriberto Hernández (R)9.3%2.8
4. Xavier Edwards (L)10.2%2.0
5. Liam Hicks (L)11.4%2.0
6. Griffin Conine (L)14.7%2.0
7. Javier Sanoja (R)10.9%2.0
8. Joe Mack (L)12.7%2.0
9. Esteury Ruiz (R)13.4%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Germán Márquez's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.3 BF

Expected batters faced23.3
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.7 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Jake McCarthy (L)11.6%3.0
2. Mickey Moniak (L)13.3%3.0
3. Hunter Goodman (R)13.8%3.0
4. TJ Rumfield (L)11.6%3.0
5. Cole Carrigg (R)13.4%3.0
6. Kyle Karros (R)11.2%2.3
7. Willi Castro (R)11.3%2.0
8. Edouard Julien (L)11.7%2.0
9. Brett Sullivan (L)10.4%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Shane Drohan's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate12.4% Runs / BF

vs LHB13.6%
vs RHB10.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.0%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload20.8 BF

Expected batters faced20.8
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.7 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. James Wood (L)11.7%3.0
2. Luis García Jr. (L)11.7%3.0
3. José Tena (L)11.7%2.8
4. CJ Abrams (L)9.6%2.0
5. Dylan Crews (R)13.1%2.0
6. Daylen Lile (L)11.4%2.0
7. Keibert Ruiz (R)11.7%2.0
8. Jorbit Vivas (L)11.7%2.0
9. Nasim Nuñez (R)11.7%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Eduardo Rodriguez's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate11.4% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.1%
vs RHB12.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.7%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.4 BF

Expected batters faced22.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.9 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Jeremy Peña (R)16.9%3.0
2. Yordan Alvarez (L)14.8%3.0
3. Isaac Paredes (R)11.6%3.0
4. LaMonte Wade Jr. (L)12.4%3.0
5. Yainer Diaz (R)12.4%2.4
6. Christian Walker (R)10.2%2.0
7. Lucas Spence (L)11.7%2.0
8. Nick Allen (R)9.7%2.0
9. Christian Vázquez (R)10.9%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Davis Martin's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate11.7% Runs / BF

vs LHB11.5%
vs RHB11.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.0%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.3 BF

Expected batters faced23.3
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.9 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Christian Yelich (L)11.4%3.0
2. Jackson Chourio (R)11.7%3.0
3. Brice Turang (L)13.9%3.0
4. William Contreras (R)11.0%3.0
5. Garrett Mitchell (L)14.1%3.0
6. Andrew Vaughn (R)10.8%2.3
7. Jake Bauers (L)13.4%2.0
8. Cooper Pratt (R)12.3%2.0
9. Joey Ortiz (R)11.7%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Tomoyuki Sugano's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate12.5% Runs / BF

vs LHB11.4%
vs RHB12.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.6%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.0 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Masataka Yoshida (L)11.7%3.0
2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)12.8%3.0
3. Wilyer Abreu (L)11.7%3.0
4. Willson Contreras (R)13.2%3.0
5. Caleb Durbin (R)14.6%3.0
6. Romy Gonzalez (R)11.7%2.2
7. Jarren Duran (L)11.4%2.0
8. Connor Wong (R)8.8%2.0
9. Tsung-Che Cheng (L)11.7%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Trey Yesavage's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate15.5% Runs / BF

vs LHB13.9%
vs RHB14.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.4%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.5 BF

Expected batters faced21.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.1 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Luis Arraez (L)10.1%3.0
2. Bryce Eldridge (L)11.2%3.0
3. Heliot Ramos (R)11.7%3.0
4. Rafael Devers (L)11.7%2.5
5. Casey Schmitt (R)11.4%2.0
6. Jung Hoo Lee (L)11.6%2.0
7. Willy Adames (R)11.7%2.0
8. Drew Gilbert (L)11.7%2.0
9. Drew Cavanaugh (L)11.7%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Grayson Rodriguez's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate13.3% Runs / BF

vs LHB14.3%
vs RHB9.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.9%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.5 BF

Expected batters faced22.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.6 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness13.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Sam Antonacci (L)14.8%3.0
2. Munetaka Murakami (L)15.7%3.0
3. Miguel Vargas (R)14.3%3.0
4. Colson Montgomery (L)12.4%3.0
5. Braden Montgomery (L)14.8%2.5
6. Chase Meidroth (R)12.8%2.0
7. Andrew Benintendi (L)13.3%2.0
8. Edgar Quero (L)9.7%2.0
9. Tristan Peters (L)11.8%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Spencer Arrighetti's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate16.3% Runs / BF

vs LHB13.0%
vs RHB16.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.6%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.6 BF

Expected batters faced24.6
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.9 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Jacob Wilson (R)12.1%3.0
2. Tyler Soderstrom (L)14.9%3.0
3. Shea Langeliers (R)11.7%3.0
4. Carlos Cortes (L)10.6%3.0
5. Donovan Walton (L)14.3%3.0
6. Tommy White (R)11.7%3.0
7. Jeff McNeil (L)12.5%2.6
8. Lawrence Butler (L)11.6%2.0
9. Jonah Heim (L)11.7%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Zebby Matthews's full player page →

What the earned runs allowed board is

The Earned Runs board projects how many earned runs a starter gives up vs his line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

  • His run-prevention rate vs the lineup's hand.
  • The park.
  • Projected length of outing.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Efficiently priced — transparency board. It's also a core input to our team run model (moneyline + team totals), where the edge actually lives.

How to use it

Read it for who's in line for a clean or rough outing; the bettable version is the team-total board it feeds.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays