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Best MLB earned runs matchups — Wednesday, July 22, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Wednesday, July 22, 2026 slate — ranked by projected earned runs allowed. Tap any card for the full breakdown.

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PROJ33 on a projected lineup — updates ~2h before first pitch
#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher earned runs Rate11.4% Runs / BF

vs LHB9.3%
vs RHB12.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.8%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload8.8 BF

Expected batters faced8.8
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection1.0 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Sam Antonacci (L)10.7%1.0
2. Munetaka Murakami (L)11.7%1.0
3. Miguel Vargas (R)11.5%1.0
4. Braden Montgomery (R)9.7%1.0
5. Andrew Benintendi (L)13.1%1.0
6. Tristan Peters (L)10.1%1.0
7. Chase Meidroth (R)12.2%1.0
8. Luisangel Acuña (R)10.4%1.0
9. Drew Romo (R)9.5%0.8

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Tyler Alexander's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate11.1% Runs / BF

vs LHB11.8%
vs RHB9.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.4%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload9.5 BF

Expected batters faced9.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection1.0 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Yandy Díaz (R)12.2%1.6
2. Jonathan Aranda (L)9.9%1.0
3. Junior Caminero (R)10.5%1.0
4. Cedric Mullins (L)10.8%1.0
5. Jonny DeLuca (R)10.9%1.0
6. Chandler Simpson (L)11.6%1.0
7. Ben Williamson (R)11.2%1.0
8. Taylor Walls (L)12.5%1.0
9. Nick Fortes (R)12.3%1.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Braydon Fisher's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.2% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.7%
vs RHB10.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.1%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload16.4 BF

Expected batters faced16.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection1.9 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)15.2%2.0
2. Seiya Suzuki (R)14.5%2.0
3. Alex Bregman (R)12.7%2.0
4. Carson Kelly (R)10.6%2.0
5. Michael Busch (L)12.9%2.0
6. Nico Hoerner (R)11.1%2.0
7. Ian Happ (L)12.3%2.0
8. Dansby Swanson (R)11.3%1.4
9. Kevin Alcántara (R)12.7%1.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Keider Montero's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate7.0% Runs / BF

vs LHB8.8%
vs RHB7.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.3%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.3 BF

Expected batters faced21.3
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection1.9 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Jackson Chourio (R)17.3%3.0
2. Brice Turang (L)13.5%3.0
3. William Contreras (R)11.0%3.0
4. Andrew Vaughn (R)10.0%2.3
5. Garrett Mitchell (L)14.0%2.0
6. Gary Sánchez (R)12.8%2.0
7. Luis Lara (L)11.7%2.0
8. Cooper Pratt (R)13.5%2.0
9. Joey Ortiz (R)12.0%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Christian Scott's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate8.3% Runs / BF

vs LHB6.6%
vs RHB11.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.7%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.5 BF

Expected batters faced23.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.0 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Otto Lopez (R)11.5%3.0
2. Kyle Stowers (L)10.6%3.0
3. Heriberto Hernández (R)9.9%3.0
4. Xavier Edwards (L)11.2%3.0
5. Liam Hicks (L)12.4%3.0
6. Griffin Conine (L)15.0%2.5
7. Jakob Marsee (L)11.6%2.0
8. Javier Sanoja (R)10.4%2.0
9. Joe Mack (L)12.3%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Peter Lambert's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate9.3% Runs / BF

vs LHB9.8%
vs RHB9.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)7.7%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.2 BF

Expected batters faced21.2
From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.1 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)13.4%3.0
2. Jake Cronenworth (L)10.7%3.0
3. Manny Machado (R)12.3%3.0
4. Ty France (R)12.4%2.2
5. Jackson Merrill (L)10.8%2.0
6. Luis Campusano (R)12.6%2.0
7. Gavin Sheets (L)8.4%2.0
8. Xander Bogaerts (R)11.0%2.0
9. Luis Rengifo (R)11.5%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Martín Pérez's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate11.3% Runs / BF

vs LHB11.9%
vs RHB10.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.7%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload20.5 BF

Expected batters faced20.5
From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.1 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness10.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Zach Neto (R)13.9%3.0
2. Mike Trout (R)11.7%3.0
3. Nolan Schanuel (L)9.3%2.5
4. Jorge Soler (R)10.1%2.0
5. Vaughn Grissom (R)10.8%2.0
6. Josh Lowe (L)11.1%2.0
7. Jo Adell (R)9.9%2.0
8. Denzer Guzman (R)10.7%2.0
9. Logan O'Hoppe (R)8.2%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hunter Dobbins's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate9.5% Runs / BF

vs LHB9.5%
vs RHB9.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.3%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload19.7 BF

Expected batters faced19.7
From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.1 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. A.J. Ewing (L)12.3%3.0
2. Juan Soto (L)15.2%2.7
3. Bo Bichette (R)11.5%2.0
4. Francisco Lindor (L)12.9%2.0
5. Carson Benge (L)14.4%2.0
6. Luis Robert Jr. (R)10.6%2.0
7. Jared Young (L)11.1%2.0
8. Marcus Semien (R)11.0%2.0
9. Luis Torrens (R)11.7%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Logan Henderson's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate7.5% Runs / BF

vs LHB7.9%
vs RHB9.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.5%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.7 BF

Expected batters faced23.7
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.2 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Carter Jensen (L)10.5%3.0
2. Lane Thomas (R)10.9%3.0
3. Jac Caglianone (L)12.8%3.0
4. Salvador Perez (R)9.6%3.0
5. Vinnie Pasquantino (L)11.4%3.0
6. Starling Marte (R)10.9%2.7
7. Michael Massey (L)14.3%2.0
8. Nick Loftin (R)10.4%2.0
9. Tyler Tolbert (R)21.8%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Landen Roupp's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate8.1% Runs / BF

vs LHB7.4%
vs RHB10.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.6%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.6 BF

Expected batters faced23.6
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.3 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Drake Baldwin (L)14.2%3.0
2. Ozzie Albies (L)12.4%3.0
3. Matt Olson (L)15.9%3.0
4. Austin Riley (R)12.8%3.0
5. Michael Harris II (L)11.5%3.0
6. Mauricio Dubón (R)9.7%2.6
7. Mike Yastrzemski (L)14.5%2.0
8. Brewer Hicklen (R)13.0%2.0
9. Jim Jarvis (L)11.7%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Michael King's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.2% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.7%
vs RHB10.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.9%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.0 BF

Expected batters faced21.0
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.3 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Elly De La Cruz (L)15.1%3.0
2. Sal Stewart (R)11.0%3.0
3. JJ Bleday (L)12.2%3.0
4. Spencer Steer (R)11.4%2.0
5. Eugenio Suárez (R)12.9%2.0
6. Tyler Stephenson (R)11.2%2.0
7. Dane Myers (R)10.0%2.0
8. Edwin Arroyo (L)11.7%2.0
9. Ke'Bryan Hayes (R)10.3%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Emerson Hancock's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate9.2% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.3%
vs RHB9.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.0%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload25.2 BF

Expected batters faced25.2
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.4 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Jacob Wilson (R)11.7%3.0
2. Tyler Soderstrom (L)14.7%3.0
3. Shea Langeliers (R)11.7%3.0
4. Colby Thomas (R)10.3%3.0
5. Joshua Kuroda-Grauer (R)11.7%3.0
6. Jonah Heim (L)8.3%3.0
7. Tommy White (R)11.7%3.0
8. Alika Williams (R)12.5%2.2
9. Henry Bolte (R)9.2%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Merrill Kelly's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.5%
vs RHB10.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.8%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.1 BF

Expected batters faced22.1
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.4 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Trea Turner (R)15.3%3.0
2. Kyle Schwarber (L)13.2%3.0
3. Bryce Harper (L)9.5%3.0
4. Alec Bohm (R)10.5%3.0
5. Edmundo Sosa (R)10.1%2.1
6. J.T. Realmuto (R)11.1%2.0
7. Brandon Marsh (L)9.9%2.0
8. Derek Hill (R)11.8%2.0
9. Bryson Stott (L)9.9%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Eric Lauer's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.4% Runs / BF

vs LHB9.3%
vs RHB11.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.1%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.2 BF

Expected batters faced21.2
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.4 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Wyatt Langford (R)14.2%3.0
2. Justin Foscue (R)11.3%3.0
3. Josh Jung (R)13.5%3.0
4. Brandon Nimmo (L)13.3%2.2
5. Jake Burger (R)11.2%2.0
6. Ezequiel Duran (R)9.5%2.0
7. Cam Cauley (R)11.7%2.0
8. Elias Díaz (R)10.1%2.0
9. Alejandro Osuna (L)10.8%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Anthony Kay's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate9.3% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.9%
vs RHB8.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.6%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.5 BF

Expected batters faced23.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.5 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Randy Arozarena (R)13.4%3.0
2. Julio Rodríguez (R)12.8%3.0
3. Dominic Canzone (L)10.2%3.0
4. Cal Raleigh (L)10.4%3.0
5. Josh Naylor (L)11.8%3.0
6. Cole Young (L)13.8%2.5
7. Victor Robles (R)12.6%2.0
8. Buddy Kennedy (R)13.3%2.0
9. Colt Emerson (L)10.0%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Brady Singer's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.0% Runs / BF

vs LHB12.3%
vs RHB7.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.5%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.5 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Nick Gonzales (R)11.6%3.0
2. Brandon Lowe (L)12.4%3.0
3. Bryan Reynolds (L)15.7%3.0
4. Esmerlyn Valdez (R)15.7%3.0
5. Ryan O'Hearn (L)12.6%3.0
6. Marcell Ozuna (R)10.5%2.1
7. Jared Triolo (R)10.0%2.0
8. Henry Davis (R)10.0%2.0
9. Billy Cook (R)12.9%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Gerrit Cole's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate8.5% Runs / BF

vs LHB12.1%
vs RHB7.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.0%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.3 BF

Expected batters faced24.3
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.5 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness13.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Nick Gonzales (R)12.4%3.0
2. Brandon Lowe (L)14.6%3.0
3. Bryan Reynolds (R)11.3%3.0
4. Esmerlyn Valdez (R)16.2%3.0
5. Ryan O'Hearn (L)13.8%3.0
6. Marcell Ozuna (R)12.4%3.0
7. Jared Triolo (R)13.3%2.3
8. Henry Davis (R)13.4%2.0
9. Billy Cook (R)13.0%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Max Fried's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate8.8% Runs / BF

vs LHB8.2%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.7%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.6 BF

Expected batters faced24.6
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.5 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Anthony Seigler (L)10.5%3.0
2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)12.0%3.0
3. Wilyer Abreu (L)13.2%3.0
4. Willson Contreras (R)12.2%3.0
5. Masataka Yoshida (L)13.2%3.0
6. Caleb Durbin (R)13.9%3.0
7. Jarren Duran (L)12.0%2.6
8. Connor Wong (R)9.1%2.0
9. Tsung-Che Cheng (L)13.7%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Kyle Bradish's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.1% Runs / BF

vs LHB11.6%
vs RHB8.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.3%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.5 BF

Expected batters faced21.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.5 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Jake McCarthy (L)13.2%3.0
2. Cole Carrigg (L)15.4%3.0
3. Hunter Goodman (R)12.1%3.0
4. Willi Castro (L)12.2%2.5
5. TJ Rumfield (L)9.8%2.0
6. Kyle Karros (R)13.9%2.0
7. Mickey Moniak (L)11.7%2.0
8. Troy Johnston (L)10.3%2.0
9. Ezequiel Tovar (R)10.5%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Cade Cavalli's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.5% Runs / BF

vs LHB9.8%
vs RHB11.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.7%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.6 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Steven Kwan (L)11.7%3.0
2. Brayan Rocchio (L)10.9%3.0
3. Chase DeLauter (L)9.6%3.0
4. Rhys Hoskins (R)11.9%3.0
5. David Fry (R)10.7%3.0
6. Travis Bazzana (L)12.4%2.4
7. Gabriel Arias (R)11.9%2.0
8. Austin Hedges (R)11.1%2.0
9. Petey Halpin (L)16.0%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Bailey Ober's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.3% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.0%
vs RHB11.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.2%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6
From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.7 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Ketel Marte (R)14.1%3.0
2. Geraldo Perdomo (R)11.2%3.0
3. Tim Tawa (R)12.3%3.0
4. Gabriel Moreno (R)11.7%3.0
5. Ildemaro Vargas (R)11.0%2.6
6. Nolan Arenado (R)12.8%2.0
7. Tyler Locklear (R)10.4%2.0
8. Ryan Waldschmidt (R)11.3%2.0
9. Jorge Barrosa (R)13.8%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Gage Jump's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate11.8% Runs / BF

vs LHB13.4%
vs RHB9.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.5%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.7 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Heliot Ramos (R)12.2%3.0
2. Bryce Eldridge (L)11.4%3.0
3. Casey Schmitt (R)10.9%3.0
4. Rafael Devers (L)14.0%3.0
5. Willy Adames (R)13.1%2.7
6. Jung Hoo Lee (L)11.7%2.0
7. Jesus Rodriguez (R)11.7%2.0
8. Drew Gilbert (L)9.8%2.0
9. Christian Koss (R)13.3%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Seth Lugo's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate12.2% Runs / BF

vs LHB12.8%
vs RHB10.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.1%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.6 BF

Expected batters faced21.6
From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.7 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Anthony Seigler (L)10.5%3.0
2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)12.0%3.0
3. Wilyer Abreu (L)13.2%3.0
4. Willson Contreras (R)12.2%2.6
5. Masataka Yoshida (L)13.2%2.0
6. Caleb Durbin (R)13.9%2.0
7. Jarren Duran (L)12.0%2.0
8. Andruw Monasterio (R)11.1%2.0
9. Carlos Narváez (R)11.5%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Dean Kremer's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.8 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Taylor Ward (R)13.6%3.0
2. Pete Alonso (R)13.8%3.0
3. Gunnar Henderson (L)10.2%3.0
4. Tyler O'Neill (R)16.3%3.0
5. Coby Mayo (R)13.5%2.9
6. Leody Taveras (R)11.9%2.0
7. Christian Encarnacion-Strand (R)10.8%2.0
8. Jackson Holliday (L)10.2%2.0
9. Chadwick Tromp (R)9.7%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Jake Bennett's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload20.8 BF

Expected batters faced20.8
From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.8 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness13.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. James Wood (L)19.9%3.0
2. Luis García Jr. (L)12.8%3.0
3. José Tena (L)10.8%2.8
4. CJ Abrams (L)14.9%2.0
5. Curtis Mead (R)14.7%2.0
6. Daylen Lile (L)11.4%2.0
7. Keibert Ruiz (L)11.6%2.0
8. Nasim Nuñez (L)14.3%2.0
9. Jacob Young (R)11.9%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Gabriel Hughes's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate11.6% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB11.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.4%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.8 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. JJ Wetherholt (L)10.7%3.0
2. Iván Herrera (R)11.5%3.0
3. Alec Burleson (L)11.3%3.0
4. Jordan Walker (R)16.1%3.0
5. Lars Nootbaar (L)10.9%2.9
6. Masyn Winn (R)11.7%2.0
7. Nathan Church (L)10.9%2.0
8. Blaze Jordan (R)11.5%2.0
9. Jimmy Crooks (L)13.0%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Reid Detmers's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate12.3% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.7%
vs RHB13.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.2%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.3 BF

Expected batters faced22.3
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.9 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Austin Martin (R)11.4%3.0
2. Byron Buxton (R)13.3%3.0
3. Ryan Jeffers (R)11.3%3.0
4. Josh Bell (L)10.9%3.0
5. Royce Lewis (R)12.5%2.3
6. Victor Caratini (L)10.4%2.0
7. Kody Clemens (L)11.5%2.0
8. Luke Keaschall (R)12.0%2.0
9. Ryan Kreidler (R)11.8%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Slade Cecconi's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate12.7% Runs / BF

vs LHB11.3%
vs RHB13.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.5%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.3 BF

Expected batters faced21.3
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.0 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Nathan Lukes (L)12.0%3.0
2. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)12.9%3.0
3. Ernie Clement (R)11.7%3.0
4. George Springer (R)14.8%2.3
5. Daulton Varsho (L)12.2%2.0
6. Kazuma Okamoto (R)13.3%2.0
7. Brandon Valenzuela (L)13.7%2.0
8. Andrés Giménez (L)9.6%2.0
9. Myles Straw (R)15.3%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Griffin Jax's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.5% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.6%
vs RHB11.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.0%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload25.7 BF

Expected batters faced25.7
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.0 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Jeremy Peña (R)14.5%3.0
2. Yordan Alvarez (L)13.6%3.0
3. Isaac Paredes (R)11.0%3.0
4. Jose Altuve (R)13.1%3.0
5. LaMonte Wade Jr. (L)12.6%3.0
6. Christian Walker (R)10.4%3.0
7. Taylor Trammell (L)10.7%3.0
8. Lucas Spence (L)11.7%2.7
9. Christian Vázquez (R)11.5%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Sandy Alcantara's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate11.8% Runs / BF

vs LHB11.6%
vs RHB11.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.1%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.1 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Shohei Ohtani (L)14.3%3.0
2. Andy Pages (R)11.1%3.0
3. Freddie Freeman (L)10.7%3.0
4. Max Muncy (L)11.8%3.0
5. Mookie Betts (R)14.4%3.0
6. Kyle Tucker (L)12.2%2.4
7. Tommy Edman (L)16.0%2.0
8. Alex Call (R)10.7%2.0
9. Eliezer Alfonzo (L)11.7%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Aaron Nola's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate11.7% Runs / BF

vs LHB9.7%
vs RHB13.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.5%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.2 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Gleyber Torres (R)11.8%3.0
2. Kevin McGonigle (L)14.2%3.0
3. Hao-Yu Lee (R)10.2%3.0
4. Dillon Dingler (R)12.8%3.0
5. Riley Greene (L)14.7%3.0
6. Spencer Torkelson (R)11.3%2.1
7. Matt Vierling (R)10.3%2.0
8. Ben Malgeri (R)11.7%2.0
9. Jake Rogers (R)12.2%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Colin Rea's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate12.7% Runs / BF

vs LHB12.7%
vs RHB11.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.5%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.3 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Trent Grisham (L)13.1%3.0
2. Ben Rice (L)14.2%3.0
3. Paul Goldschmidt (R)11.8%3.0
4. Cody Bellinger (L)12.6%3.0
5. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)16.2%3.0
6. Jasson Domínguez (L)13.2%2.0
7. Ryan McMahon (L)11.6%2.0
8. Austin Wells (L)10.6%2.0
9. José Caballero (R)11.4%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Mitch Keller's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.9% Runs / BF

vs LHB13.4%
vs RHB8.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.2%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.5 BF

Expected batters faced23.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.4 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Trent Grisham (L)13.1%3.0
2. Ben Rice (L)14.2%3.0
3. Paul Goldschmidt (R)11.8%3.0
4. Cody Bellinger (L)12.6%3.0
5. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)16.2%3.0
6. Jasson Domínguez (L)13.2%2.5
7. Ryan McMahon (L)11.6%2.0
8. Austin Wells (L)10.6%2.0
9. José Caballero (R)11.4%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-140+100
DKDraftKings-144+108
FANFanatics-140+100

We project 3.4 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Bubba Chandler's full player page →

What the earned runs allowed board is

The Earned Runs board projects how many earned runs a starter gives up vs his line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

  • His run-prevention rate vs the lineup's hand.
  • The park.
  • Projected length of outing.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Efficiently priced — transparency board. It's also a core input to our team run model (moneyline + team totals), where the edge actually lives.

How to use it

Read it for who's in line for a clean or rough outing; the bettable version is the team-total board it feeds.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays