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Best MLB walks allowed matchups — Thursday, July 23, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Thursday, July 23, 2026 slate — ranked by walk risk against today's lineup. Tap any card for the full breakdown.

12:15 PM ETSDSDawayATLATLhomeTop matchup691:10 PM ETMINMINawayCLECLEhomeTop matchup323:07 PM ETTBTBawayTORTORhomeTop matchup575:15 PM ETAZAZawaySTLSTLhomeTop matchup1006:40 PM ETKCKCawayDETDEThomeTop matchup31
PROJ10 on a projected lineup — updates ~2h before first pitch
#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher walks Rate5.8% BB / BF

vs LHB6.4%
vs RHB5.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.0%

How often he gives up walks to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload16.3 BF

Expected batters faced16.3
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection0.9 BB

Expected walks — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · walk-proneness7.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. JJ Wetherholt (L)8.8%2.0
2. Iván Herrera (R)8.3%2.0
3. Alec Burleson (L)8.8%2.0
4. Jordan Walker (R)6.5%2.0
5. Lars Nootbaar (L)12.2%2.0
6. Masyn Winn (R)6.9%2.0
7. Nathan Church (L)5.2%2.0
8. Blaze Jordan (R)5.6%1.3
9. José Fermín (R)8.6%1.0

Each hitter's walks rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Brandon Pfaadt's full player page →

Pitcher walks Rate6.0% BB / BF

vs LHB6.5%
vs RHB6.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)23.9%

How often he gives up walks to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection1.4 BB

Expected walks — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · walk-proneness8.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)12.9%3.0
2. Luis Rengifo (R)6.4%3.0
3. Manny Machado (R)10.3%3.0
4. Ty France (R)5.2%3.0
5. Jackson Merrill (L)5.7%3.0
6. Luis Campusano (R)11.1%2.1
7. Xander Bogaerts (R)9.3%2.0
8. Jake Cronenworth (L)9.0%2.0
9. Jase Bowen (R)8.5%2.0

Each hitter's walks rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Chris Sale's full player page →

Pitcher walks Rate8.7% BB / BF

vs LHB5.5%
vs RHB10.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.4%

How often he gives up walks to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload19.8 BF

Expected batters faced19.8
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection1.6 BB

Expected walks — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · walk-proneness8.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Ernie Clement (R)4.6%3.0
2. Nathan Lukes (L)8.8%2.8
3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)15.3%2.0
4. George Springer (R)12.4%2.0
5. Yohendrick Piñango (L)8.5%2.0
6. Alejandro Kirk (R)10.1%2.0
7. Daulton Varsho (L)6.5%2.0
8. Sean Keys (L)8.5%2.0
9. Andrés Giménez (L)3.5%2.0

Each hitter's walks rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Ian Seymour's full player page →

Pitcher walks Rate5.2% BB / BF

vs LHB6.5%
vs RHB3.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.0%

How often he gives up walks to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection1.7 BB

Expected walks — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · walk-proneness9.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Ketel Marte (L)10.2%3.0
2. Geraldo Perdomo (L)13.8%3.0
3. Corbin Carroll (L)11.7%3.0
4. Adrian Del Castillo (L)8.2%3.0
5. Max Kepler (L)9.1%3.0
6. Pavin Smith (L)13.7%2.4
7. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (R)5.1%2.0
8. Ildemaro Vargas (L)5.2%2.0
9. Tommy Troy (R)11.8%2.0

Each hitter's walks rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Walks Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
BOVBovada-135-105
DKDraftKings-130-102

We project 1.7 BB vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Michael McGreevy's full player page →

Pitcher walks Rate9.5% BB / BF

vs LHB9.4%
vs RHB9.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.7%

How often he gives up walks to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.1 BB

Expected walks — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · walk-proneness8.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Trevor Larnach (L)10.7%3.0
2. Brooks Lee (L)7.5%3.0
3. Kody Clemens (L)6.9%3.0
4. Josh Bell (L)9.4%3.0
5. Royce Lewis (R)7.5%2.8
6. Victor Caratini (L)8.5%2.0
7. Alan Roden (L)6.8%2.0
8. Luke Keaschall (R)9.4%2.0
9. Alex Jackson (R)4.8%2.0

Each hitter's walks rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Gavin Williams's full player page →

Pitcher walks Rate7.6% BB / BF

vs LHB10.4%
vs RHB4.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)22.8%

How often he gives up walks to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.5 BF

Expected batters faced23.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.1 BB

Expected walks — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · walk-proneness8.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Carter Jensen (L)10.4%3.0
2. Lane Thomas (R)9.6%3.0
3. Vinnie Pasquantino (L)9.7%3.0
4. Salvador Perez (R)4.5%3.0
5. Michael Massey (L)5.8%3.0
6. Isaac Collins (L)14.3%2.5
7. Starling Marte (R)6.0%2.0
8. Josh Rojas (L)8.6%2.0
9. Andrew Velazquez (L)8.5%2.0

Each hitter's walks rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Troy Melton's full player page →

Pitcher walks Rate11.5% BB / BF

vs LHB8.4%
vs RHB14.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)-0.1%

How often he gives up walks to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.8 BF

Expected batters faced21.8
From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.2 BB

Expected walks — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · walk-proneness8.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Kevin McGonigle (L)15.9%3.0
2. Dillon Dingler (R)4.9%3.0
3. Colt Keith (L)7.7%3.0
4. Riley Greene (L)9.0%2.8
5. Spencer Torkelson (R)9.6%2.0
6. Kerry Carpenter (L)8.5%2.0
7. Zach McKinstry (L)8.5%2.0
8. Hao-Yu Lee (R)5.0%2.0
9. James Outman (L)7.5%2.0

Each hitter's walks rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Randy Dobnak's full player page →

Pitcher walks Rate7.9% BB / BF

vs LHB9.8%
vs RHB6.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.1%

How often he gives up walks to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.1 BF

Expected batters faced22.1
From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.3 BB

Expected walks — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · walk-proneness10.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Yandy Díaz (R)8.6%3.0
2. Jonathan Aranda (L)10.4%3.0
3. Junior Caminero (R)8.4%3.0
4. Cedric Mullins (L)9.7%3.0
5. Chandler Simpson (L)5.6%2.1
6. Victor Mesa Jr. (L)12.4%2.0
7. Taylor Walls (L)11.3%2.0
8. Richie Palacios (L)12.7%2.0
9. Hunter Feduccia (L)12.7%2.0

Each hitter's walks rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Shane Bieber's full player page →

Pitcher walks Rate11.1% BB / BF

vs LHB11.8%
vs RHB9.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.5%

How often he gives up walks to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload19.5 BF

Expected batters faced19.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.4 BB

Expected walks — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · walk-proneness9.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Drake Baldwin (L)10.1%3.0
2. Ozzie Albies (L)9.6%2.5
3. Matt Olson (L)13.4%2.0
4. Michael Harris II (L)3.3%2.0
5. Austin Riley (R)6.5%2.0
6. Mike Yastrzemski (L)11.6%2.0
7. Mauricio Dubón (R)6.2%2.0
8. Jim Jarvis (L)8.5%2.0
9. Brewer Hicklen (R)14.4%2.0

Each hitter's walks rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Griffin Canning's full player page →

Pitcher walks Rate9.0% BB / BF

vs LHB10.4%
vs RHB7.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.1%

How often he gives up walks to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.0 BF

Expected batters faced24.0
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.6 BB

Expected walks — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · walk-proneness8.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Steven Kwan (L)10.9%3.0
2. José Ramírez (L)8.5%3.0
3. Chase DeLauter (L)10.1%3.0
4. Brayan Rocchio (L)7.2%3.0
5. Travis Bazzana (L)10.7%3.0
6. Kyle Manzardo (L)8.5%3.0
7. Daniel Schneemann (L)8.5%2.0
8. Patrick Bailey (L)8.5%2.0
9. Petey Halpin (L)5.1%2.0

Each hitter's walks rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Taj Bradley's full player page →

What the walks allowed board is

The Walks Allowed board projects how many free passes a starter issues. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

  • His control.
  • The lineup's patience.
  • Count leverage.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Walks are near-unpredictable at the margin and the market prices them efficiently. Transparency board.

How to use it

A read on a starter's command for the night; no edge to bet.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays