Best MLB Runs Matchups — Saturday, October 10, 2026
Top runs spot: Sam Antonacci
Sam Antonacci (CWS) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Gavin Williams. The lefty is scoring at .156 R/PA against righties this year — and .333 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a run in about 14% of his trips. And Gavin Williams has been getting lit up by righties lately — .333 runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .083 in 12 career PA against Gavin Williams, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Miguel Vargas (CWS) (98) vs RHP Gavin Williams: a strong bat at .145 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.000), due to bounce back.
- Steven Kwan (CLE) (79) vs RHP Sean Burke: a solid bat at .125 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.071).
- Kyle Teel (CWS) (77) vs RHP Gavin Williams: a strong bat at .133 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.333).
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) (73) vs RHP Gavin Williams: a strong bat at .141 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.333).
- José Ramírez (CLE) (70) vs RHP Sean Burke: a solid bat at .123 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.071).
- Chase DeLauter (CLE) (45) vs RHP Sean Burke: a league-average bat at .111 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.071).
- Andrew Benintendi (CWS) (37) vs RHP Gavin Williams: a solid bat at .120 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.333).
Platoon edges to target
- Sam Antonacci (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .156 against righties this year.
- Steven Kwan (CLE) — lefty bat vs RHP, .127 against righties this year.
- Kyle Teel (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .162 against righties this year.
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .154 against righties this year.
- José Ramírez (CLE) — lefty bat vs RHP, .124 against righties this year.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the runs board is
The Runs board projects the chance a hitter scores a run. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His on-base ability at the top of the order.
- The bats due up behind him.
- The opposing run-prevention.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Like RBIs, runs is a lumpy market that grades efficient once you model the clustering honestly. Transparency board — the WizLine set beside the line, graded.
How to use it
Useful context for top-of-the-order run creation, not a lean.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays