Best MLB Runs Matchups — Tuesday, October 6, 2026
Top runs spot: Jackson Chourio
Jackson Chourio (MIL) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Nick Pivetta. The righty is scoring at .154 R/PA against righties this year — and .200 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a run in about 14% of his trips. And Nick Pivetta has been stingy with runs against righties lately — .000 runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 3 career PA against Nick Pivetta, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Brice Turang (MIL) (94) vs RHP Nick Pivetta: an excellent bat at .152 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.000), hot bat.
- Jake Bauers (MIL) (94) vs RHP Nick Pivetta: an excellent bat at .159 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.000).
- Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) (92) vs RHP Dustin May: a solid bat at .124 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.125).
- Dustin Harris (SD) (78) vs RHP Dustin May: a strong bat at .138 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.214).
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) (78) vs RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto: a strong bat at .141 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.091).
- Manny Machado (SD) (76) vs RHP Dustin May: a solid bat at .120 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.125).
- Ty France (SD) (69) vs RHP Dustin May: a solid bat at .119 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.125).
Platoon edges to target
- Brice Turang (MIL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .167 against righties this year.
- Jake Bauers (MIL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .179 against righties this year.
- Dustin Harris (SD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .171 against righties this year.
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .153 against righties this year.
- Garrett Mitchell (MIL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .154 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
36 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the runs board is
The Runs board projects the chance a hitter scores a run. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His on-base ability at the top of the order.
- The bats due up behind him.
- The opposing run-prevention.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Like RBIs, runs is a lumpy market that grades efficient once you model the clustering honestly. Transparency board — the WizLine set beside the line, graded.
How to use it
Useful context for top-of-the-order run creation, not a lean.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays