Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Thursday, July 23, 2026)?

Chris Sale (ATL) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 6.1 K against SD. A 28% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 21% of the time.

What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?

The top projected-K starts on Thursday, July 23, 2026: Chris Sale (~6.1 K), Gavin Williams (~6.2 K), Troy Melton (~5.5 K), Taj Bradley (~5.9 K), Ian Seymour (~5.1 K). The full board ranks every starter.

How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?

It weighs each starter's strikeout ability against the specific hitters he's set to face, hand by hand, then factors in how deep he tends to pitch and his command. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside. The exact way those pieces are weighted and combined is our own model, tuned weekly against results.

Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?

Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.

What's the projected strikeout number?

A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.

Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.

What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?

Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.

Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?

A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.

What's the confidence meter?

How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.

Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?

Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)

Are these confirmed or projected lineups?

Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.

Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB strikeouts matchups — Thursday, July 23, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Thursday, July 23, 2026 slate — ranked by strikeout upside against today's lineup. Tap any card for the full breakdown.

★ Plays of the Day

No identified Plays of the Day on this slate — our model didn't find a strikeout disagreement with the book big enough to clear our edge threshold. The model still ran every matchup; it just didn't flag a play worth posting today. This season strikeout PODs are hitting 60% — a +9% return.

12:15 PM ET

SDaway

ATLhomeTop matchup100 1:10 PM ET

MINaway

CLEhomeTop matchup91 3:07 PM ET

TBaway

TORhomeTop matchup57 5:15 PM ET

AZaway

STLhomeTop matchup21 6:40 PM ET

KCaway

DEThomeTop matchup81

PROJ10 on a projected lineup — updates ~2h before first pitch

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#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher strikeouts Rate28.0% K / BF

vs LHB25.9%

vs RHB28.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)21.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 20vs MIL7

Jun 28@ SF10

Jul 4vs NYM3

Jul 10@ STL5

Jul 17vs TEX6

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)21.5%3.0

2. Luis Rengifo (R)20.6%3.0

3. Manny Machado (R)20.3%3.0

4. Ty France (R)21.1%3.0

5. Jackson Merrill (L)22.4%3.0

6. Luis Campusano (R)23.8%2.1

7. Xander Bogaerts (R)16.7%2.0

8. Jake Cronenworth (L)20.2%2.0

9. Jase Bowen (R)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Chris Sale's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate29.8% K / BF

vs LHB30.0%

vs RHB26.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.6%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 22@ CWS8

Jun 28vs SEA6

Jul 3vs CWS6

Jul 9@ MIN11

Jul 18vs PIT11

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Trevor Larnach (L)19.7%3.0

2. Brooks Lee (L)15.9%3.0

3. Kody Clemens (L)24.8%3.0

4. Josh Bell (L)22.2%3.0

5. Royce Lewis (R)24.8%2.9

6. Victor Caratini (L)17.4%2.0

7. Alan Roden (L)21.6%2.0

8. Luke Keaschall (R)16.4%2.0

9. Alex Jackson (R)22.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Gavin Williams's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate25.6% K / BF

vs LHB21.3%

vs RHB27.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)21.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 20vs CWS5

Jun 25vs HOU6

Jul 1@ NYY7

Jul 8vs ATH9

Jul 17@ LAA9

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Carter Jensen (L)27.0%3.0

2. Lane Thomas (R)24.8%3.0

3. Vinnie Pasquantino (L)17.3%3.0

4. Salvador Perez (R)22.9%3.0

5. Michael Massey (L)15.6%3.0

6. Isaac Collins (L)22.7%2.4

7. Starling Marte (R)22.6%2.0

8. Josh Rojas (L)21.7%2.0

9. Andrew Velazquez (L)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Troy Melton's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate25.8% K / BF

vs LHB28.0%

vs RHB22.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.1%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.7 BF

Expected batters faced23.7

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 26vs COL7

Jul 1@ HOU11

Jul 7vs CLE10

Jul 12vs LAA6

Jul 18@ CHC6

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness19.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Steven Kwan (L)12.3%3.0

2. José Ramírez (L)22.0%3.0

3. Chase DeLauter (L)15.1%3.0

4. Brayan Rocchio (L)17.4%3.0

5. Travis Bazzana (L)22.5%3.0

6. Kyle Manzardo (L)22.0%2.7

7. Daniel Schneemann (L)22.0%2.0

8. Patrick Bailey (L)22.0%2.0

9. Petey Halpin (L)22.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Taj Bradley's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate27.7% K / BF

vs LHB25.4%

vs RHB27.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.2%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload20.8 BF

Expected batters faced20.8

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 20vs WSH4

Jul 2@ KC8

Jul 7vs NYY12

Jul 12vs SEA3

Jul 18@ BOS4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Ernie Clement (R)17.5%3.0

2. Nathan Lukes (L)23.6%3.0

3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)16.5%2.8

4. George Springer (R)20.8%2.0

5. Yohendrick Piñango (L)22.0%2.0

6. Alejandro Kirk (R)21.1%2.0

7. Daulton Varsho (L)20.5%2.0

8. Sean Keys (L)22.0%2.0

9. Andrés Giménez (L)18.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Ian Seymour's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.3% K / BF

vs LHB20.9%

vs RHB23.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.6%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload20.6 BF

Expected batters faced20.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 6vs NYM6

Jun 12@ BAL6

Jun 29@ CHC3

Jul 9vs AZ5

Jul 18@ KC4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Drake Baldwin (L)18.8%3.0

2. Ozzie Albies (L)22.1%3.0

3. Matt Olson (L)23.8%2.6

4. Michael Harris II (L)20.5%2.0

5. Austin Riley (R)27.1%2.0

6. Mike Yastrzemski (L)20.8%2.0

7. Mauricio Dubón (R)16.9%2.0

8. Jim Jarvis (L)22.0%2.0

9. Brewer Hicklen (R)24.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Griffin Canning's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.6% K / BF

vs LHB21.7%

vs RHB20.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.7%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.5 BF

Expected batters faced22.5

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 23vs HOU2

Jun 28vs TEX4

Jul 4@ SEA3

Jul 10@ SD4

Jul 18vs CWS6

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Yandy Díaz (R)15.6%3.0

2. Jonathan Aranda (L)21.1%3.0

3. Junior Caminero (R)21.3%3.0

4. Cedric Mullins (L)23.4%3.0

5. Chandler Simpson (L)12.0%2.5

6. Victor Mesa Jr. (L)23.8%2.0

7. Taylor Walls (L)25.3%2.0

8. Richie Palacios (L)18.9%2.0

9. Hunter Feduccia (L)26.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Shane Bieber's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate18.7% K / BF

vs LHB16.4%

vs RHB22.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.9%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 19@ KC2

Jun 26vs MIA4

Jul 1@ ATL3

Jul 8vs MIL6

Jul 17@ AZ5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Ketel Marte (L)18.9%3.0

2. Geraldo Perdomo (L)13.9%3.0

3. Corbin Carroll (L)24.7%3.0

4. Adrian Del Castillo (L)24.3%3.0

5. Max Kepler (L)22.3%3.0

6. Pavin Smith (L)22.9%2.3

7. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (R)20.9%2.0

8. Ildemaro Vargas (L)14.6%2.0

9. Tommy Troy (R)22.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-150+110

BOLBetOnline-159+122

BRBetRivers-182+135

BOVBovada-180+135

DKDraftKings-179+140

FDFanDuel-170+138

We project 3.8 K vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Michael McGreevy's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate16.1% K / BF

vs LHB17.0%

vs RHB18.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)5.7%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.4 BF

Expected batters faced22.4

From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 1 GamesStrikeouts

Jul 18vs SD3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness24.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Kevin McGonigle (L)14.6%3.0

2. Dillon Dingler (R)21.2%3.0

3. Colt Keith (L)20.5%3.0

4. Riley Greene (L)26.1%3.0

5. Spencer Torkelson (R)29.7%2.4

6. Kerry Carpenter (L)22.0%2.0

7. Zach McKinstry (L)22.0%2.0

8. Hao-Yu Lee (R)23.9%2.0

9. James Outman (L)36.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Randy Dobnak's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate18.2% K / BF

vs LHB18.2%

vs RHB20.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload18.4 BF

Expected batters faced18.4

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Apr 11@ PHI6

Jun 30vs SF2

Jul 6@ SD6

Jul 11@ LAD2

Jul 18vs STL3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. JJ Wetherholt (L)18.4%2.4

2. Iván Herrera (R)20.4%2.0

3. Alec Burleson (L)17.0%2.0

4. Jordan Walker (R)24.3%2.0

5. Lars Nootbaar (L)22.3%2.0

6. Masyn Winn (R)20.4%2.0

7. Nathan Church (L)20.6%2.0

8. Blaze Jordan (R)21.4%2.0

9. José Fermín (R)19.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Brandon Pfaadt's full player page →

Best MLB Strikeout Pitcher Matchups — Thursday, July 23, 2026

Chris Sale (ATL) is the top strikeout start on the Thursday, July 23, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 6.1 K, with Gavin Williams (CLE) right behind. Every starter on the slate is ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his whiff rate, the lineup he's facing, how deep he goes, and his command. It's the same read DFS and strikeout-prop players make before lock.

Top strikeout spot: Chris Sale

Chris Sale (ATL) is the best strikeout matchup on the board at 100, projected for about 6.1 K against SD. He's missing bats at a 28% clip — strikeouts per batter faced — and SD has been around league average, going down 21% of the time. He's lined up for about 23 batters, so the volume's there for a big number.

The rest of the top of the board

Gavin Williams (CLE) (91) — about 6.2 K vs MIN: a 30% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 21% of the time.
Troy Melton (DET) (81) — about 5.5 K vs KC: a 26% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
Taj Bradley (MIN) (71) — about 5.9 K vs CLE: a 26% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 20% of the time.
Ian Seymour (TB) (57) — about 5.1 K vs TOR: a 28% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 20% of the time.
Griffin Canning (SD) (33) — about 4.4 K vs ATL: a 22% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.

Whiffiest lineups to attack today

DET is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Randy Dobnak is the arm to exploit it (9).
ATL is striking out 22% of the time in this spot — Griffin Canning is the arm to exploit it (33).
KC is striking out 22% of the time in this spot — Troy Melton is the arm to exploit it (81).
SD is striking out 21% of the time in this spot — Chris Sale is the arm to exploit it (100).

How to read these strikeout matchups

Each starter's score (0–100) weighs his strikeout ability against every hitter in the lineup, hand by hand, then factors in how deep he tends to pitch and his command. Higher means more whiffs point his way. The exact weighting is our own — we project a strikeout count and grade every start against what actually happened.

Keep reading

Frequently asked questions

Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Thursday, July 23, 2026)?: Chris Sale (ATL) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 6.1 K against SD. A 28% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 21% of the time.
What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?: The top projected-K starts on Thursday, July 23, 2026: Chris Sale (~6.1 K), Gavin Williams (~6.2 K), Troy Melton (~5.5 K), Taj Bradley (~5.9 K), Ian Seymour (~5.1 K). The full board ranks every starter.
How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?: It weighs each starter's strikeout ability against the specific hitters he's set to face, hand by hand, then factors in how deep he tends to pitch and his command. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside. The exact way those pieces are weighted and combined is our own model, tuned weekly against results.
Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?: Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.
What's the projected strikeout number?: A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.
What does K/BF mean?: Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.
What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?: Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.
Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?: A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.
What's the confidence meter?: How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.
Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?: Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)
Are these confirmed or projected lineups?: Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

What the strikeouts board is

The Strikeouts board projects how many batters a starting pitcher strikes out, set against the sportsbook's strikeout line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

The pitcher's own strikeout rate — his stuff, blended across recent form and the full season.
The exact lineup he faces: how often those nine hitters go down swinging, weighted by who bats when.
Park and the plate-discipline edge in the matchup (a whiff-prone lineup is a K magnet).

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Where the edge is

This is our sharpest prop. When our projection gaps far from the book's line — 1.5 strikeouts or more — that disagreement has been profitable in a full-season backtest, and it holds up out-of-sample. The book leans on a pitcher's name and season number; we score the exact lineup in front of him, so we catch the spots the line is slow to move on. Most of the value is on the UNDER of an inflated ace line. This season those plays are hitting 60% at a +9% return — graded in the open, day by day.

How to use it

Scan for the biggest gaps between our projected K's and the posted line — those are the Plays of the Day. A small gap isn't a play; the edge is in the wide disagreements, and we grade every one against the real box score.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays