MatchWiz
Scores Plays of the Day

Best MLB strikeouts matchups — Wednesday, July 22, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Wednesday, July 22, 2026 slate — ranked by strikeout upside against today's lineup. Tap any card for the full breakdown.

★ Plays of the Day

No identified Plays of the Day on this slate — our model didn't find a strikeout disagreement with the book big enough to clear our edge threshold. The model still ran every matchup; it just didn't flag a play worth posting today. This season strikeout PODs are hitting 60% — a +9% return.

1:05 PM ETPITPITawayNYYNYYhomeTop matchup1001:35 PM ETBALBALawayBOSBOShomeTop matchup872:10 PM ETSFSFawayKCKChomeTop matchup762:10 PM ETNYMNYMawayMILMILhomeTop matchup893:10 PM ETWSHWSHawayCOLCOLhomeTop matchup973:40 PM ETATHATHawayAZAZhomeTop matchup813:40 PM ETCINCINawaySEASEAhomeTop matchup784:07 PM ETSTLSTLawayLAALAAhomeTop matchup1006:40 PM ETMINMINawayCLECLEhomeTop matchup706:40 PM ETLADLADawayPHIPHIhomeTop matchup907:05 PM ETPITPITawayNYYNYYhomeTop matchup887:07 PM ETTBTBawayTORTORhomeTop matchup537:10 PM ETBALBALawayBOSBOShomeTop matchup917:15 PM ETSDSDawayATLATLhomeTop matchup678:05 PM ETCWSCWSawayTEXTEXhomeTop matchup318:10 PM ETDETDETawayCHCCHChomeTop matchup418:10 PM ETMIAMIAawayHOUHOUhomeTop matchup93
PROJ33 on a projected lineup — updates ~2h before first pitch
#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher strikeouts Rate27.0% K / BF

vs LHB24.7%
vs RHB26.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.6%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 21@ ATH4
Jun 27vs ATH8
Jul 3vs BOS5
Jul 9@ TEX6
Jul 17vs DET7

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness19.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. JJ Wetherholt (L)18.9%3.0
2. Iván Herrera (R)15.7%3.0
3. Alec Burleson (L)17.3%3.0
4. Jordan Walker (R)21.4%3.0
5. Lars Nootbaar (L)21.5%2.9
6. Masyn Winn (R)20.2%2.0
7. Nathan Church (L)22.4%2.0
8. Blaze Jordan (R)16.7%2.0
9. Jimmy Crooks (L)24.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Reid Detmers's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.2% K / BF

vs LHB26.2%
vs RHB20.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.7%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 22@ DET5
Jun 27@ BOS5
Jul 3vs MIN7
Jul 8@ TB6
Jul 17vs LAD8

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness24.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Nick Gonzales (R)19.9%3.0
2. Brandon Lowe (L)24.6%3.0
3. Bryan Reynolds (L)24.4%3.0
4. Esmerlyn Valdez (R)34.1%3.0
5. Ryan O'Hearn (L)21.6%3.0
6. Marcell Ozuna (R)26.7%2.1
7. Jared Triolo (R)22.3%2.0
8. Henry Davis (R)22.1%2.0
9. Billy Cook (R)25.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Gerrit Cole's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate25.8% K / BF

vs LHB24.9%
vs RHB25.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.6%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.0 BF

Expected batters faced22.0
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 25vs PHI7
Jun 30@ BOS13
Jul 5vs PIT3
Jul 12vs NYY5
Jul 17@ ATH9

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Jake McCarthy (L)17.8%3.0
2. Cole Carrigg (L)19.7%3.0
3. Hunter Goodman (R)28.0%3.0
4. Willi Castro (L)24.9%3.0
5. TJ Rumfield (L)17.4%2.0
6. Kyle Karros (R)21.0%2.0
7. Mickey Moniak (L)22.0%2.0
8. Troy Johnston (L)19.6%2.0
9. Ezequiel Tovar (R)21.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Cade Cavalli's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate25.3% K / BF

vs LHB26.2%
vs RHB22.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.3 BF

Expected batters faced23.3
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 23@ TOR6
Jun 29vs MIN4
Jul 5vs TB6
Jul 11@ TEX7
Jul 17vs BAL10

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Otto Lopez (R)16.8%3.0
2. Kyle Stowers (L)30.3%3.0
3. Heriberto Hernández (R)24.5%3.0
4. Xavier Edwards (L)16.0%3.0
5. Liam Hicks (L)13.0%3.0
6. Griffin Conine (L)28.6%2.3
7. Jakob Marsee (L)19.8%2.0
8. Javier Sanoja (R)12.0%2.0
9. Joe Mack (L)23.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Peter Lambert's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.1% K / BF

vs LHB22.2%
vs RHB24.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.1 BF

Expected batters faced24.1
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 17@ SEA12
Jun 22@ LAA9
Jun 28vs WSH2
Jul 5@ CIN5
Jul 11vs KC5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Anthony Seigler (L)20.4%3.0
2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)20.5%3.0
3. Wilyer Abreu (L)23.5%3.0
4. Willson Contreras (R)26.5%3.0
5. Masataka Yoshida (L)15.1%3.0
6. Caleb Durbin (R)15.6%3.0
7. Jarren Duran (L)26.5%2.1
8. Connor Wong (R)23.6%2.0
9. Tsung-Che Cheng (L)24.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Kyle Bradish's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.4% K / BF

vs LHB23.4%
vs RHB24.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 24@ WSH5
Jun 29vs PIT5
Jul 5@ KC7
Jul 10@ DET8
Jul 16vs NYM6

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Shohei Ohtani (L)22.3%3.0
2. Andy Pages (R)22.3%3.0
3. Freddie Freeman (L)19.2%3.0
4. Max Muncy (L)22.0%3.0
5. Mookie Betts (R)16.5%3.0
6. Kyle Tucker (L)18.8%2.3
7. Tommy Edman (L)19.8%2.0
8. Alex Call (R)19.8%2.0
9. Eliezer Alfonzo (L)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Aaron Nola's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate25.9% K / BF

vs LHB24.3%
vs RHB26.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.2%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload20.8 BF

Expected batters faced20.8
From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 10vs NYY5
May 16@ MIN7
May 22vs LAD7
Jul 9@ STL4
Jul 17vs MIA4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. A.J. Ewing (L)27.2%3.0
2. Juan Soto (L)17.0%3.0
3. Bo Bichette (R)18.5%2.8
4. Francisco Lindor (L)19.9%2.0
5. Carson Benge (L)19.3%2.0
6. Luis Robert Jr. (R)24.3%2.0
7. Jared Young (L)19.7%2.0
8. Marcus Semien (R)22.9%2.0
9. Luis Torrens (R)20.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Logan Henderson's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.8% K / BF

vs LHB23.2%
vs RHB21.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.9 BF

Expected batters faced23.9
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Apr 22@ BOS9
Apr 27@ TEX5
May 3vs BAL6
May 8@ MIL5
May 13@ BAL2

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Nick Gonzales (R)19.7%3.0
2. Brandon Lowe (L)30.0%3.0
3. Bryan Reynolds (R)23.3%3.0
4. Esmerlyn Valdez (R)24.0%3.0
5. Ryan O'Hearn (L)22.6%3.0
6. Marcell Ozuna (R)24.5%2.9
7. Jared Triolo (R)19.1%2.0
8. Henry Davis (R)22.4%2.0
9. Billy Cook (R)25.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Max Fried's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.0% K / BF

vs LHB22.0%
vs RHB22.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 22@ COL9
Jun 27vs NYY3
Jul 3@ LAA6
Jul 8@ CWS4
Jul 17vs TB3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness24.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Taylor Ward (R)20.4%3.0
2. Pete Alonso (R)25.4%3.0
3. Gunnar Henderson (L)22.5%3.0
4. Tyler O'Neill (R)26.3%3.0
5. Coby Mayo (R)26.9%2.9
6. Leody Taveras (R)26.1%2.0
7. Christian Encarnacion-Strand (R)23.1%2.0
8. Jackson Holliday (L)24.0%2.0
9. Chadwick Tromp (R)23.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Jake Bennett's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.9% K / BF

vs LHB22.2%
vs RHB24.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.3 BF

Expected batters faced22.3
From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Apr 13vs AZ9
Apr 18@ CLE7
Jul 1vs CWS4
Jul 8vs CHC4
Jul 17@ HOU5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Anthony Seigler (L)20.4%3.0
2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)20.5%3.0
3. Wilyer Abreu (L)23.5%3.0
4. Willson Contreras (R)26.5%3.0
5. Masataka Yoshida (L)15.1%2.3
6. Caleb Durbin (R)15.6%2.0
7. Jarren Duran (L)26.5%2.0
8. Andruw Monasterio (R)22.6%2.0
9. Carlos Narváez (R)25.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Dean Kremer's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate26.2% K / BF

vs LHB25.1%
vs RHB24.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.2%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8
From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 24@ SF9
Jun 29vs LAD5
Jul 5vs MIA1
Jul 11@ CWS7
Jul 17vs WSH8

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness19.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Ketel Marte (R)16.7%3.0
2. Geraldo Perdomo (R)16.0%3.0
3. Tim Tawa (R)21.3%3.0
4. Gabriel Moreno (R)18.2%3.0
5. Ildemaro Vargas (R)15.9%2.8
6. Nolan Arenado (R)20.6%2.0
7. Tyler Locklear (R)22.8%2.0
8. Ryan Waldschmidt (R)24.5%2.0
9. Jorge Barrosa (R)21.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Gage Jump's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.9% K / BF

vs LHB23.2%
vs RHB21.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.9%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.6 BF

Expected batters faced21.6
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 14@ WSH2
Jun 20vs BOS6
Jun 28@ CLE6
Jul 5vs TOR5
Jul 12@ TB2

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Elly De La Cruz (L)22.9%3.0
2. Sal Stewart (R)21.0%3.0
3. JJ Bleday (L)21.1%3.0
4. Spencer Steer (R)23.8%2.6
5. Eugenio Suárez (R)29.7%2.0
6. Tyler Stephenson (R)27.6%2.0
7. Dane Myers (R)23.5%2.0
8. Edwin Arroyo (L)22.0%2.0
9. Ke'Bryan Hayes (R)19.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Emerson Hancock's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.4% K / BF

vs LHB21.1%
vs RHB21.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.9 BF

Expected batters faced24.9
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 23vs TEX4
Jun 29@ COL3
Jul 4@ ATH8
Jul 10vs CLE8
Jul 17@ MIL7

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Jeremy Peña (R)17.3%3.0
2. Yordan Alvarez (L)18.2%3.0
3. Isaac Paredes (R)16.5%3.0
4. Jose Altuve (R)21.9%3.0
5. LaMonte Wade Jr. (L)22.0%3.0
6. Christian Walker (R)24.5%3.0
7. Taylor Trammell (L)28.3%2.9
8. Lucas Spence (L)22.0%2.0
9. Christian Vázquez (R)19.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Sandy Alcantara's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.5% K / BF

vs LHB21.6%
vs RHB22.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.5 BF

Expected batters faced23.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 19@ MIA7
Jun 25vs ATH6
Jun 30@ AZ4
Jul 6vs TOR5
Jul 17@ SEA2

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Carter Jensen (L)27.6%3.0
2. Lane Thomas (R)24.1%3.0
3. Jac Caglianone (L)24.1%3.0
4. Salvador Perez (R)22.2%3.0
5. Vinnie Pasquantino (L)17.0%3.0
6. Starling Marte (R)23.9%2.5
7. Michael Massey (L)15.7%2.0
8. Nick Loftin (R)16.5%2.0
9. Tyler Tolbert (R)20.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Landen Roupp's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate26.7% K / BF

vs LHB27.6%
vs RHB23.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.7%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.8 BF

Expected batters faced21.8
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 11vs STL6
Jun 27vs PHI6
Jul 3@ ATL7
Jul 8vs KC5
Jul 16@ PHI7

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Jackson Chourio (R)24.2%3.0
2. Brice Turang (L)22.2%3.0
3. William Contreras (R)16.7%3.0
4. Andrew Vaughn (R)17.9%2.8
5. Garrett Mitchell (L)29.8%2.0
6. Gary Sánchez (R)19.6%2.0
7. Luis Lara (L)22.0%2.0
8. Cooper Pratt (R)18.2%2.0
9. Joey Ortiz (R)19.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Christian Scott's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.8% K / BF

vs LHB21.1%
vs RHB22.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.9%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.5 BF

Expected batters faced21.5
From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 3 GamesStrikeouts

Apr 30@ PIT4
Jun 11@ NYM5
Jul 7vs MIL4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Zach Neto (R)28.1%3.0
2. Mike Trout (R)25.8%3.0
3. Nolan Schanuel (L)16.5%3.0
4. Jorge Soler (R)28.9%2.5
5. Vaughn Grissom (R)18.8%2.0
6. Josh Lowe (L)24.1%2.0
7. Jo Adell (R)22.0%2.0
8. Denzer Guzman (R)25.5%2.0
9. Logan O'Hoppe (R)25.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hunter Dobbins's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.5% K / BF

vs LHB19.4%
vs RHB23.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.7%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 17vs MIL1
May 24@ BOS3
May 30@ PIT3
Jul 9vs CLE5
Jul 17@ CHC7

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Steven Kwan (L)12.4%3.0
2. Brayan Rocchio (L)17.6%3.0
3. Chase DeLauter (L)15.3%3.0
4. Rhys Hoskins (R)27.1%3.0
5. David Fry (R)23.3%3.0
6. Travis Bazzana (L)22.8%2.3
7. Gabriel Arias (R)31.6%2.0
8. Austin Hedges (R)23.4%2.0
9. Petey Halpin (L)23.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Bailey Ober's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.8% K / BF

vs LHB22.1%
vs RHB21.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.2%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.3 BF

Expected batters faced23.3
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 19@ COL1
Jun 25vs SEA4
Jun 30@ PHI6
Jul 5@ WSH0
Jul 11vs MIL6

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Trent Grisham (L)18.4%3.0
2. Ben Rice (L)22.4%3.0
3. Paul Goldschmidt (R)26.0%3.0
4. Cody Bellinger (L)19.7%3.0
5. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)25.4%3.0
6. Jasson Domínguez (L)22.2%2.3
7. Ryan McMahon (L)28.0%2.0
8. Austin Wells (L)23.6%2.0
9. José Caballero (R)19.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-125-105
BOLBetOnline-128-101
BRBetRivers-141+106
BOVBovada-130+100
DKDraftKings-132+103
FANFanatics-130+100
FDFanDuel-130+102

We project 5.3 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Bubba Chandler's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.2% K / BF

vs LHB20.8%
vs RHB22.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.6%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 22vs ATL5
Jun 28vs LAD5
Jul 3@ LAD5
Jul 8vs AZ4
Jul 17@ KC4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Drake Baldwin (L)18.9%3.0
2. Ozzie Albies (L)21.3%3.0
3. Matt Olson (L)23.8%3.0
4. Austin Riley (R)26.6%3.0
5. Michael Harris II (L)21.3%3.0
6. Mauricio Dubón (R)17.2%2.4
7. Mike Yastrzemski (L)20.8%2.0
8. Brewer Hicklen (R)22.6%2.0
9. Jim Jarvis (L)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Michael King's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate18.1% K / BF

vs LHB16.6%
vs RHB20.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.5%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.5 BF

Expected batters faced24.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 22@ STL2
Jun 28@ TB3
Jul 4vs MIL6
Jul 9@ SD6
Jul 17vs STL3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Jacob Wilson (R)15.3%3.0
2. Tyler Soderstrom (L)18.5%3.0
3. Shea Langeliers (R)26.3%3.0
4. Colby Thomas (R)27.1%3.0
5. Joshua Kuroda-Grauer (R)22.0%3.0
6. Jonah Heim (L)24.0%3.0
7. Tommy White (R)22.0%2.5
8. Alika Williams (R)26.2%2.0
9. Henry Bolte (R)23.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Merrill Kelly's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate26.1% K / BF

vs LHB26.9%
vs RHB23.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.7%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.8 BF

Expected batters faced21.8
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 24vs KC7
Jun 30@ KC5
Jul 6vs NYY10
Jul 11vs SEA3
Jul 17@ BOS6

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness18.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Nathan Lukes (L)14.5%3.0
2. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)17.6%3.0
3. Ernie Clement (R)11.2%3.0
4. George Springer (R)20.2%2.8
5. Daulton Varsho (L)20.0%2.0
6. Kazuma Okamoto (R)27.3%2.0
7. Brandon Valenzuela (L)23.2%2.0
8. Andrés Giménez (L)19.4%2.0
9. Myles Straw (R)14.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Griffin Jax's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.5% K / BF

vs LHB18.6%
vs RHB21.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.7%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 16@ ATH7
Jun 23vs SEA4
Jun 28vs CIN4
Jul 3@ WSH1
Jul 9vs ATL3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Trent Grisham (L)18.4%3.0
2. Ben Rice (L)22.4%3.0
3. Paul Goldschmidt (R)26.0%3.0
4. Cody Bellinger (L)19.7%3.0
5. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)25.4%3.0
6. Jasson Domínguez (L)22.2%2.0
7. Ryan McMahon (L)28.0%2.0
8. Austin Wells (L)23.6%2.0
9. José Caballero (R)19.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Mitch Keller's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.0% K / BF

vs LHB22.0%
vs RHB22.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.8 BF

Expected batters faced21.8
From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 2 GamesStrikeouts

Jul 8@ LAD7
Jul 17vs CIN6

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. James Wood (L)25.5%3.0
2. Luis García Jr. (L)18.9%3.0
3. José Tena (L)25.3%3.0
4. CJ Abrams (L)19.0%2.8
5. Curtis Mead (R)20.2%2.0
6. Daylen Lile (L)18.9%2.0
7. Keibert Ruiz (L)13.6%2.0
8. Nasim Nuñez (L)22.2%2.0
9. Jacob Young (R)18.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Gabriel Hughes's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.5% K / BF

vs LHB21.1%
vs RHB19.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 22vs MIL7
Jun 28@ PIT6
Jul 3vs BAL6
Jul 9vs PHI5
Jul 17@ COL6

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Randy Arozarena (R)22.2%3.0
2. Julio Rodríguez (R)21.5%3.0
3. Dominic Canzone (L)20.4%3.0
4. Cal Raleigh (L)26.6%3.0
5. Josh Naylor (L)13.2%3.0
6. Cole Young (L)17.3%2.4
7. Victor Robles (R)18.1%2.0
8. Buddy Kennedy (R)23.6%2.0
9. Colt Emerson (L)27.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Brady Singer's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.0% K / BF

vs LHB20.3%
vs RHB19.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.5 BF

Expected batters faced22.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 16@ MIL4
Jun 21@ HOU1
Jun 27vs SEA4
Jul 2vs CWS3
Jul 8@ MIN4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Austin Martin (R)20.8%3.0
2. Byron Buxton (R)23.2%3.0
3. Ryan Jeffers (R)20.1%3.0
4. Josh Bell (L)21.8%3.0
5. Royce Lewis (R)25.1%2.5
6. Victor Caratini (L)17.8%2.0
7. Kody Clemens (L)24.5%2.0
8. Luke Keaschall (R)16.6%2.0
9. Ryan Kreidler (R)23.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Slade Cecconi's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.8% K / BF

vs LHB21.8%
vs RHB17.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 25@ TB3
Jul 1vs TB7
Jul 7@ NYM4
Jul 12@ BAL6
Jul 17vs SD3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Heliot Ramos (R)26.9%3.0
2. Bryce Eldridge (L)25.9%3.0
3. Casey Schmitt (R)21.2%3.0
4. Rafael Devers (L)25.4%3.0
5. Willy Adames (R)25.8%2.8
6. Jung Hoo Lee (L)11.8%2.0
7. Jesus Rodriguez (R)22.0%2.0
8. Drew Gilbert (L)15.9%2.0
9. Christian Koss (R)19.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Seth Lugo's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate18.7% K / BF

vs LHB19.8%
vs RHB18.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.2%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 20vs TOR3
Jun 26@ MIL4
Jul 1vs SD5
Jul 8@ BAL2
Jul 17vs MIN6

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Gleyber Torres (R)19.6%3.0
2. Kevin McGonigle (L)14.6%3.0
3. Hao-Yu Lee (R)24.2%3.0
4. Dillon Dingler (R)21.3%3.0
5. Riley Greene (L)26.1%3.0
6. Spencer Torkelson (R)29.9%2.1
7. Matt Vierling (R)20.8%2.0
8. Ben Malgeri (R)22.0%2.0
9. Jake Rogers (R)23.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Colin Rea's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate17.4% K / BF

vs LHB19.3%
vs RHB18.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.7%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.4 BF

Expected batters faced22.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 2@ AZ1
Jun 9@ PIT5
Jun 15vs TB4
Jun 29@ ATH2
Jul 6vs COL3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Trea Turner (R)18.9%3.0
2. Kyle Schwarber (L)27.9%3.0
3. Bryce Harper (L)24.0%3.0
4. Alec Bohm (R)18.0%3.0
5. Edmundo Sosa (R)20.8%2.4
6. J.T. Realmuto (R)20.1%2.0
7. Brandon Marsh (L)31.0%2.0
8. Derek Hill (R)30.2%2.0
9. Bryson Stott (L)19.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Eric Lauer's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.9% K / BF

vs LHB19.1%
vs RHB22.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload18.4 BF

Expected batters faced18.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 31@ CWS4
Jun 6vs SEA1
Jun 11vs MIN4
Jun 21vs CWS3
Jun 26vs HOU3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)26.5%2.4
2. Seiya Suzuki (R)25.4%2.0
3. Alex Bregman (R)18.9%2.0
4. Carson Kelly (R)19.5%2.0
5. Michael Busch (L)23.2%2.0
6. Nico Hoerner (R)12.0%2.0
7. Ian Happ (L)26.3%2.0
8. Dansby Swanson (R)20.1%2.0
9. Kevin Alcántara (R)24.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Keider Montero's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.7% K / BF

vs LHB24.2%
vs RHB18.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)7.9%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.8 BF

Expected batters faced21.8
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 22vs CLE8
Jun 28vs KC2
Jul 3@ CLE2
Jul 9vs BOS4
Jul 17@ TOR5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Wyatt Langford (R)25.6%3.0
2. Justin Foscue (R)24.3%3.0
3. Josh Jung (R)18.8%3.0
4. Brandon Nimmo (L)20.9%2.8
5. Jake Burger (R)24.9%2.0
6. Ezequiel Duran (R)26.9%2.0
7. Cam Cauley (R)22.0%2.0
8. Elias Díaz (R)19.9%2.0
9. Alejandro Osuna (L)21.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Anthony Kay's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.1% K / BF

vs LHB21.8%
vs RHB18.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)7.6%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.8 BF

Expected batters faced21.8
From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 13@ NYM4
Jun 19vs MIL5
Jun 24@ SD4
Jun 30vs STL1
Jul 5vs NYM1

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)21.5%3.0
2. Jake Cronenworth (L)20.2%3.0
3. Manny Machado (R)20.3%3.0
4. Ty France (R)21.1%2.8
5. Jackson Merrill (L)22.4%2.0
6. Luis Campusano (R)23.8%2.0
7. Gavin Sheets (L)24.8%2.0
8. Xander Bogaerts (R)16.7%2.0
9. Luis Rengifo (R)20.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Martín Pérez's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.3% K / BF

vs LHB23.9%
vs RHB23.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload13.8 BF

Expected batters faced13.8
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 21@ NYY4
May 26vs MIA1
Jun 6vs BAL2
Jun 17@ BOS0
Jul 1vs NYM1

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Yandy Díaz (R)16.1%2.0
2. Jonathan Aranda (L)21.9%2.0
3. Junior Caminero (R)21.9%2.0
4. Cedric Mullins (L)24.4%2.0
5. Jonny DeLuca (R)20.7%1.8
6. Chandler Simpson (L)12.1%1.0
7. Ben Williamson (R)19.8%1.0
8. Taylor Walls (L)25.0%1.0
9. Nick Fortes (R)17.8%1.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Braydon Fisher's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.9% K / BF

vs LHB20.8%
vs RHB22.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.7%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload13.2 BF

Expected batters faced13.2
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 3 GamesStrikeouts

May 19@ COL1
Jun 22@ MIA1
Jun 29@ CLE2

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Sam Antonacci (L)20.8%2.0
2. Munetaka Murakami (L)28.8%2.0
3. Miguel Vargas (R)18.0%2.0
4. Braden Montgomery (R)23.3%2.0
5. Andrew Benintendi (L)25.4%1.3
6. Tristan Peters (L)21.3%1.0
7. Chase Meidroth (R)20.3%1.0
8. Luisangel Acuña (R)18.2%1.0
9. Drew Romo (R)23.6%1.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Tyler Alexander's full player page →

What the strikeouts board is

The Strikeouts board projects how many batters a starting pitcher strikes out, set against the sportsbook's strikeout line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

  • The pitcher's own strikeout rate — his stuff, blended across recent form and the full season.
  • The exact lineup he faces: how often those nine hitters go down swinging, weighted by who bats when.
  • Park and the plate-discipline edge in the matchup (a whiff-prone lineup is a K magnet).

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Where the edge is

This is our sharpest prop. When our projection gaps far from the book's line — 1.5 strikeouts or more — that disagreement has been profitable in a full-season backtest, and it holds up out-of-sample. The book leans on a pitcher's name and season number; we score the exact lineup in front of him, so we catch the spots the line is slow to move on. Most of the value is on the UNDER of an inflated ace line. This season those plays are hitting 60% at a +9% return — graded in the open, day by day.

How to use it

Scan for the biggest gaps between our projected K's and the posted line — those are the Plays of the Day. A small gap isn't a play; the edge is in the wide disagreements, and we grade every one against the real box score.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays