Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Friday, July 24, 2026)?

Tarik Skubal (DET) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 6.1 K against KC. A 29% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.

What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?

The top projected-K starts on Friday, July 24, 2026: Tarik Skubal (~6.1 K), Jesús Luzardo (~6.4 K), Bryce Miller (~5.8 K), Jared Jones (~5.7 K), Sean Manaea (~5.8 K). The full board ranks every starter.

How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?

It weighs each starter's strikeout ability against the specific hitters he's set to face, hand by hand, then factors in how deep he tends to pitch and his command. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside. The exact way those pieces are weighted and combined is our own model, tuned weekly against results.

Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?

Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.

What's the projected strikeout number?

A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.

Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.

What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?

Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.

Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?

A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.

What's the confidence meter?

How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.

Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?

Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)

Are these confirmed or projected lineups?

Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.

Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB strikeouts matchups — Friday, July 24, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Friday, July 24, 2026 slate — ranked by strikeout upside against today's lineup. Tap any card for the full breakdown.

★ Plays of the Day

Plays post once today's odds and lineups are in. We pull the books' lines around 10am ET, then surface strikeout plays as each lineup goes final. The board fills through the day — turn on alerts (the bell up top) to get pinged the moment plays post. This season strikeout PODs are hitting 61% — a +10% return.

4:10 PM ET

COLaway

MILhomeTop matchup51 6:40 PM ET

KCaway

DEThomeTop matchup100 6:40 PM ET

CHCaway

PIThomeTop matchup70 6:45 PM ET

AZaway

WSHhomeTop matchup24 6:45 PM ET

NYYaway

PHIhomeTop matchup92 7:05 PM ET

ATLaway

BALhomeTop matchup36 7:10 PM ET

SDaway

MIAhomeTop matchup8 7:10 PM ET

LADaway

NYMhomeTop matchup62 7:10 PM ET

CLEaway

TBhomeTop matchup53 7:15 PM ET

TORaway

BOShomeTop matchup52 7:40 PM ET

HOUaway

CWShomeTop matchup50 8:05 PM ET

SEAaway

TEXhomeTop matchup81 8:10 PM ET

ATHaway

MINhomeTop matchup29 8:15 PM ET

CINaway

STLhomeTop matchup49 10:15 PM ET

LAAaway

SFhomeTop matchup43

PROJ28 on a projected lineup — updates ~2h before first pitch

Sort

#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher strikeouts Rate28.6% K / BF

vs LHB24.1%

vs RHB29.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)24.1%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 24vs NYY9

Jun 30@ NYY9

Jul 7vs ATH9

Jul 12vs PHI5

Jul 18@ LAA9

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Carter Jensen (L)24.3%3.0

2. Lane Thomas (R)21.9%3.0

3. Vinnie Pasquantino (L)22.3%3.0

4. Salvador Perez (R)19.6%3.0

5. Michael Massey (L)23.3%2.7

6. Isaac Collins (R)21.9%2.0

7. Josh Rojas (L)22.6%2.0

8. Nick Loftin (R)17.9%2.0

9. Andrew Velazquez (R)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Tarik Skubal's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate29.3% K / BF

vs LHB29.8%

vs RHB27.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.2%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.4 BF

Expected batters faced22.4

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 23@ WSH13

Jun 28@ NYM6

Jul 4@ KC9

Jul 9@ CIN11

Jul 18vs NYM7

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Trent Grisham (L)22.0%3.0

2. Ben Rice (L)23.7%3.0

3. Paul Goldschmidt (R)22.0%3.0

4. Cody Bellinger (L)18.1%3.0

5. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)22.0%2.4

6. Jasson Domínguez (R)22.0%2.0

7. Anthony Volpe (R)21.4%2.0

8. Ryan McMahon (L)22.0%2.0

9. Ali Sánchez (R)22.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Jesús Luzardo's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.2% K / BF

vs LHB22.2%

vs RHB26.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.9%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 19vs BOS7

Jun 25@ PIT11

Jul 2vs LAA8

Jul 9@ MIA3

Jul 17vs SF6

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Wyatt Langford (R)21.0%3.0

2. Justin Foscue (R)24.8%3.0

3. Jake Burger (R)25.1%3.0

4. Brandon Nimmo (L)24.1%3.0

5. Ezequiel Duran (R)23.6%2.7

6. Cam Cauley (R)22.0%2.0

7. Elias Díaz (R)23.5%2.0

8. Alejandro Osuna (L)16.8%2.0

9. Nicky Lopez (L)18.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Bryce Miller's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate29.1% K / BF

vs LHB29.7%

vs RHB24.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.7%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload20.4 BF

Expected batters faced20.4

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 21@ COL3

Jun 27vs CIN4

Jul 2@ PHI6

Jul 8vs ATL8

Jul 18@ CLE9

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)26.6%3.0

2. Seiya Suzuki (R)25.8%3.0

3. Michael Busch (L)24.9%2.4

4. Alex Bregman (R)19.4%2.0

5. Ian Happ (L)26.6%2.0

6. Nico Hoerner (R)11.8%2.0

7. Michael Conforto (L)28.4%2.0

8. Carson Kelly (R)19.2%2.0

9. Dansby Swanson (R)19.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Jared Jones's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.9% K / BF

vs LHB28.3%

vs RHB20.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.1%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 24vs CHC4

Jun 29@ TOR4

Jul 4@ ATL4

Jul 9vs KC6

Jul 18@ PHI7

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Shohei Ohtani (L)23.9%3.0

2. Andy Pages (R)20.5%3.0

3. Freddie Freeman (L)22.0%3.0

4. Max Muncy (L)23.0%3.0

5. Mookie Betts (R)22.0%2.6

6. Kyle Tucker (L)21.0%2.0

7. Teoscar Hernández (R)22.3%2.0

8. Tommy Edman (R)20.1%2.0

9. Dalton Rushing (L)25.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Sean Manaea's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.0% K / BF

vs LHB22.0%

vs RHB22.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.5 BF

Expected batters faced23.5

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 25@ TOR5

Jul 1@ CLE7

Jul 8vs LAA7

Jul 12vs HOU4

Jul 18@ ATL7

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Cole Young (L)21.5%3.0

2. Julio Rodríguez (R)22.0%3.0

3. Dominic Canzone (L)22.6%3.0

4. Randy Arozarena (R)22.0%3.0

5. Josh Naylor (L)22.0%3.0

6. Cal Raleigh (R)29.3%2.5

7. Luke Raley (L)22.0%2.0

8. Weston Wilson (R)22.0%2.0

9. Colt Emerson (L)27.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

MacKenzie Gore's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.4% K / BF

vs LHB23.5%

vs RHB20.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.6%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 25@ NYM4

Jun 30vs SD2

Jul 7@ BAL7

Jul 12@ CIN3

Jul 18vs MIN4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Nick Gonzales (R)22.0%3.0

2. Jared Triolo (R)22.0%3.0

3. Bryan Reynolds (R)24.6%3.0

4. Esmerlyn Valdez (R)22.0%3.0

5. Ryan O'Hearn (L)22.0%2.8

6. Marcell Ozuna (R)22.0%2.0

7. Brandon Lowe (L)30.6%2.0

8. Rafael Flores Jr. (R)22.0%2.0

9. Billy Cook (R)26.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Matthew Boyd's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.5% K / BF

vs LHB19.1%

vs RHB25.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.6 BF

Expected batters faced21.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 20vs CIN8

Jun 26@ BOS0

Jul 1vs DET7

Jul 7@ TB3

Jul 12@ WSH2

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Trea Turner (R)22.0%3.0

2. Kyle Schwarber (L)22.0%3.0

3. Bryce Harper (L)19.6%3.0

4. Alec Bohm (R)18.6%2.6

5. Edmundo Sosa (R)22.0%2.0

6. Derek Hill (R)29.3%2.0

7. Bryan De La Cruz (R)30.7%2.0

8. Bryson Stott (L)19.9%2.0

9. Rafael Marchán (L)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Will Warren's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate25.9% K / BF

vs LHB19.4%

vs RHB28.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.3 BF

Expected batters faced23.3

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 26vs SEA9

Jul 1vs TEX4

Jul 7@ MIN7

Jul 12@ MIA9

Jul 19vs PIT7

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Yandy Díaz (R)16.1%3.0

2. Jonathan Aranda (L)24.1%3.0

3. Junior Caminero (R)17.2%3.0

4. Victor Mesa Jr. (L)19.0%3.0

5. Jonny DeLuca (R)22.3%3.0

6. Chandler Simpson (L)15.7%2.3

7. Ben Williamson (R)21.2%2.0

8. Richie Palacios (L)22.4%2.0

9. Hunter Feduccia (L)22.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Joey Cantillo's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.5% K / BF

vs LHB22.7%

vs RHB23.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.7%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 24vs HOU5

Jun 29vs NYM3

Jul 5@ SEA7

Jul 11@ SD1

Jul 19vs CWS9

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Masataka Yoshida (L)22.0%3.0

2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)19.3%3.0

3. Wilyer Abreu (L)22.0%3.0

4. Willson Contreras (R)25.4%3.0

5. Caleb Durbin (R)14.9%3.0

6. Romy Gonzalez (R)22.0%2.1

7. Jarren Duran (L)26.2%2.0

8. Connor Wong (R)24.8%2.0

9. Tsung-Che Cheng (L)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Trey Yesavage's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.0% K / BF

vs LHB22.0%

vs RHB22.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 24@ CIN5

Jul 1vs CIN7

Jul 6@ STL2

Jul 11@ PIT6

Jul 18vs MIA9

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Jake McCarthy (L)19.6%3.0

2. Mickey Moniak (L)27.1%3.0

3. Hunter Goodman (R)28.2%3.0

4. TJ Rumfield (L)17.4%3.0

5. Cole Carrigg (R)22.8%3.0

6. Kyle Karros (R)21.7%2.2

7. Willi Castro (R)26.6%2.0

8. Edouard Julien (L)22.0%2.0

9. Brett Sullivan (L)19.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Shane Drohan's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.1% K / BF

vs LHB22.9%

vs RHB21.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.7%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 20vs CLE8

Jun 26@ DET7

Jul 3vs TB4

Jul 8@ WSH2

Jul 18vs BAL6

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Sam Antonacci (L)16.6%3.0

2. Munetaka Murakami (L)28.6%3.0

3. Miguel Vargas (R)19.2%3.0

4. Colson Montgomery (L)30.4%3.0

5. Braden Montgomery (L)17.8%2.7

6. Chase Meidroth (R)22.7%2.0

7. Andrew Benintendi (L)19.7%2.0

8. Edgar Quero (L)22.1%2.0

9. Tristan Peters (L)19.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Spencer Arrighetti's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.4% K / BF

vs LHB21.9%

vs RHB22.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.9%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.4 BF

Expected batters faced21.4

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 21@ KC2

Jul 2@ ATL1

Jul 6vs MIL7

Jul 12vs ATL4

Jul 18@ AZ6

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Elly De La Cruz (L)22.0%3.0

2. Sal Stewart (R)20.3%3.0

3. JJ Bleday (L)21.4%3.0

4. Spencer Steer (R)22.0%2.4

5. Nathaniel Lowe (L)22.0%2.0

6. Tyler Stephenson (R)25.9%2.0

7. Dane Myers (R)22.7%2.0

8. Edwin Arroyo (L)22.0%2.0

9. Ke'Bryan Hayes (R)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Dustin May's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.8% K / BF

vs LHB21.3%

vs RHB23.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 2 GamesStrikeouts

Jul 9@ CWS5

Jul 18vs TB5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Yohendrick Piñango (L)22.0%3.0

2. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)16.5%3.0

3. Ernie Clement (R)17.5%3.0

4. George Springer (R)20.8%3.0

5. Alejandro Kirk (R)20.9%2.6

6. Kazuma Okamoto (R)23.9%2.0

7. Davis Schneider (R)29.4%2.0

8. Luis Urías (R)19.1%2.0

9. Myles Straw (R)20.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Patrick Sandoval's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.2% K / BF

vs LHB21.7%

vs RHB22.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.2 BF

Expected batters faced22.2

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 19vs BAL6

Jun 26@ SD2

Jul 2vs SD3

Jul 8vs COL5

Jul 17@ NYY5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. A.J. Ewing (L)27.0%3.0

2. Francisco Lindor (L)20.0%3.0

3. Bo Bichette (R)19.5%3.0

4. Carson Benge (L)19.8%3.0

5. Jorge Polanco (L)22.0%2.3

6. Jared Young (L)19.9%2.0

7. Marcus Semien (R)22.0%2.0

8. Brett Baty (L)23.6%2.0

9. Francisco Alvarez (R)24.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Roki Sasaki's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.4% K / BF

vs LHB19.6%

vs RHB20.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.1%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.6 BF

Expected batters faced24.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 21@ MIA5

Jun 27vs ATL6

Jul 3@ COL2

Jul 8vs TOR2

Jul 18@ SEA5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Zach Neto (R)22.0%3.0

2. Mike Trout (R)25.0%3.0

3. Nolan Schanuel (L)15.5%3.0

4. Vaughn Grissom (R)20.3%3.0

5. Jo Adell (R)22.8%3.0

6. Wade Meckler (L)22.0%3.0

7. Oswald Peraza (R)22.0%2.6

8. Josh Lowe (L)24.5%2.0

9. Tyler Heineman (L)19.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Logan Webb's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.5% K / BF

vs LHB23.2%

vs RHB21.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.9%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.4 BF

Expected batters faced22.4

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 17@ LAD3

Jun 23vs KC4

Jul 1@ KC4

Jul 8vs NYY5

Jul 19@ BOS3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Steven Kwan (L)15.9%3.0

2. José Ramírez (R)12.2%3.0

3. Chase DeLauter (L)19.1%3.0

4. Brayan Rocchio (R)19.0%3.0

5. Travis Bazzana (L)24.2%2.4

6. Rhys Hoskins (R)27.8%2.0

7. Kyle Manzardo (L)25.6%2.0

8. Patrick Bailey (R)26.5%2.0

9. Petey Halpin (L)23.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Shane McClanahan's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.2% K / BF

vs LHB19.8%

vs RHB21.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.2%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.2 BF

Expected batters faced21.2

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 16vs SF2

Jun 22@ SD4

Jul 3vs NYM2

Jul 8@ PIT5

Jul 19vs TEX2

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Taylor Ward (R)22.0%3.0

2. Pete Alonso (R)22.0%3.0

3. Gunnar Henderson (L)22.7%3.0

4. Tyler O'Neill (R)22.0%2.3

5. Coby Mayo (R)29.6%2.0

6. Leody Taveras (L)22.0%2.0

7. Christian Encarnacion-Strand (R)22.5%2.0

8. Jackson Holliday (L)22.0%2.0

9. Sam Huff (R)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Grant Holmes's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.6% K / BF

vs LHB20.8%

vs RHB21.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 21@ DET4

Jun 27vs KC3

Jul 2@ CLE0

Jul 8vs BOS2

Jul 18@ TOR5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness19.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Jeremy Peña (R)17.1%3.0

2. Yordan Alvarez (L)17.5%3.0

3. Isaac Paredes (R)15.7%3.0

4. LaMonte Wade Jr. (L)21.4%3.0

5. Yainer Diaz (R)16.6%2.6

6. Christian Walker (R)25.9%2.0

7. Lucas Spence (L)22.0%2.0

8. Nick Allen (R)22.5%2.0

9. Christian Vázquez (R)20.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Davis Martin's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.9% K / BF

vs LHB21.3%

vs RHB19.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.1 BF

Expected batters faced24.1

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 22vs LAD5

Jun 29@ HOU7

Jul 4@ NYY5

Jul 10vs LAA3

Jul 19@ CHC4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness19.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Jacob Wilson (R)15.0%3.0

2. Tyler Soderstrom (L)18.5%3.0

3. Shea Langeliers (R)22.0%3.0

4. Carlos Cortes (L)17.5%3.0

5. Donovan Walton (L)20.5%3.0

6. Tommy White (R)22.0%3.0

7. Jeff McNeil (L)15.3%2.1

8. Lawrence Butler (L)24.9%2.0

9. Jonah Heim (L)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Zebby Matthews's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.1% K / BF

vs LHB20.2%

vs RHB18.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.6%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.5 BF

Expected batters faced21.5

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 23@ STL5

Jun 29vs SF1

Jul 5vs MIL3

Jul 10@ LAD5

Jul 19vs STL3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. James Wood (L)22.0%3.0

2. Luis García Jr. (L)22.0%3.0

3. José Tena (L)22.0%3.0

4. CJ Abrams (L)27.2%2.5

5. Dylan Crews (R)22.7%2.0

6. Daylen Lile (L)23.0%2.0

7. Keibert Ruiz (R)22.0%2.0

8. Jorbit Vivas (L)22.0%2.0

9. Nasim Nuñez (R)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Eduardo Rodriguez's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate16.1% K / BF

vs LHB17.1%

vs RHB16.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 9vs CHC3

Jun 14@ ATH2

Jun 20vs PIT5

Jun 26@ MIN2

Jul 18vs CIN3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Christian Yelich (L)26.3%3.0

2. Jackson Chourio (R)22.0%3.0

3. Brice Turang (L)22.1%3.0

4. William Contreras (R)16.8%3.0

5. Garrett Mitchell (L)29.3%3.0

6. Andrew Vaughn (R)17.9%2.2

7. Jake Bauers (L)28.3%2.0

8. Cooper Pratt (R)20.1%2.0

9. Joey Ortiz (R)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Tomoyuki Sugano's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate18.6% K / BF

vs LHB19.3%

vs RHB19.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.1 BF

Expected batters faced21.1

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 13vs AZ6

Jun 19@ NYY5

Jun 24vs MIL6

Jun 30@ MIL8

Jul 18@ COL2

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. JJ Wetherholt (L)18.3%3.0

2. Jordan Walker (R)24.6%3.0

3. Alec Burleson (L)16.7%3.0

4. Lars Nootbaar (L)22.2%2.1

5. Masyn Winn (R)20.5%2.0

6. José Fermín (R)18.5%2.0

7. Nathan Church (L)20.3%2.0

8. Blaze Jordan (R)21.4%2.0

9. Jimmy Crooks (L)27.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Rhett Lowder's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate17.1% K / BF

vs LHB18.1%

vs RHB17.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.2%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.5 BF

Expected batters faced21.5

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Apr 25@ AZ2

May 1vs CWS2

Jul 7vs AZ4

Jul 12vs TOR4

Jul 19@ KC2

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Otto Lopez (R)16.9%3.0

2. Kyle Stowers (L)30.0%3.0

3. Heriberto Hernández (R)25.4%3.0

4. Xavier Edwards (L)17.1%2.5

5. Liam Hicks (L)13.3%2.0

6. Griffin Conine (L)27.5%2.0

7. Javier Sanoja (R)11.5%2.0

8. Joe Mack (L)24.2%2.0

9. Esteury Ruiz (R)25.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Germán Márquez's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.8% K / BF

vs LHB24.1%

vs RHB21.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.6%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload15.9 BF

Expected batters faced15.9

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 4 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 24vs PHI3

Jul 4vs PIT3

Jul 10vs NYY4

Jul 21@ COL2

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Corbin Carroll (L)20.2%2.0

2. Geraldo Perdomo (R)16.8%2.0

3. Gabriel Moreno (R)18.6%2.0

4. Max Kepler (L)22.0%2.0

5. Adrian Del Castillo (L)29.4%2.0

6. Tim Tawa (R)23.1%2.0

7. Ildemaro Vargas (R)15.4%1.9

8. Tyler Locklear (R)22.8%1.0

9. Ryan Waldschmidt (R)25.2%1.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Carson Palmquist's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate16.6% K / BF

vs LHB16.0%

vs RHB20.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.9%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.0 BF

Expected batters faced22.0

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 2vs COL3

Jun 8vs HOU6

Jun 14vs TB1

Jul 10@ MIN0

Jul 18vs DET3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness19.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Luis Arraez (L)8.5%3.0

2. Bryce Eldridge (L)26.1%3.0

3. Heliot Ramos (R)22.0%3.0

4. Rafael Devers (L)22.0%3.0

5. Casey Schmitt (R)21.8%2.0

6. Jung Hoo Lee (L)12.1%2.0

7. Willy Adames (R)22.0%2.0

8. Drew Gilbert (L)22.0%2.0

9. Drew Cavanaugh (L)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Grayson Rodriguez's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.4% K / BF

vs LHB24.5%

vs RHB18.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload19.9 BF

Expected batters faced19.9

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 14vs STL2

May 19@ LAA2

May 31vs NYY3

Jul 10@ CWS1

Jul 19vs WSH6

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Brooks Lee (R)22.4%3.0

2. Byron Buxton (R)22.7%2.9

3. Ryan Jeffers (R)17.3%2.0

4. Josh Bell (R)21.0%2.0

5. Kody Clemens (L)22.8%2.0

6. Royce Lewis (R)19.5%2.0

7. Austin Martin (R)19.7%2.0

8. Luke Keaschall (R)21.1%2.0

9. Ryan Kreidler (R)21.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Jacob Lopez's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.0% K / BF

vs LHB22.0%

vs RHB22.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload13.8 BF

Expected batters faced13.8

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Kevin McGonigle (L)14.8%2.0

2. Gleyber Torres (R)20.2%2.0

3. Colt Keith (L)20.9%2.0

4. Riley Greene (L)25.6%2.0

5. Dillon Dingler (R)21.8%1.8

6. Kerry Carpenter (L)25.8%1.0

7. Spencer Torkelson (R)28.6%1.0

8. Zach McKinstry (L)18.9%1.0

9. James Outman (L)36.5%1.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Beck Way's full player page →

Best MLB Strikeout Pitcher Matchups — Friday, July 24, 2026

Tarik Skubal (DET) is the top strikeout start on the Friday, July 24, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 6.1 K, with Jesús Luzardo (PHI) right behind. Every starter on the slate is ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his whiff rate, the lineup he's facing, how deep he goes, and his command. It's the same read DFS and strikeout-prop players make before lock.

Top strikeout spot: Tarik Skubal

Tarik Skubal (DET) is the best strikeout matchup on the board at 100, projected for about 6.1 K against KC. He's missing bats at a 29% clip — strikeouts per batter faced — and KC has been around league average, going down 22% of the time. He's lined up for about 23 batters, so the volume's there for a big number.

The rest of the top of the board

Jesús Luzardo (PHI) (92) — about 6.4 K vs NYY: a 29% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
Bryce Miller (SEA) (81) — about 5.8 K vs TEX: a 24% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
Jared Jones (PIT) (70) — about 5.7 K vs CHC: a 29% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.
Sean Manaea (NYM) (62) — about 5.8 K vs LAD: a 24% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
MacKenzie Gore (TEX) (55) — about 5.5 K vs SEA: a 22% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.

Whiffiest lineups to attack today

PIT is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Matthew Boyd is the arm to exploit it (53).
DET is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Beck Way is the arm to exploit it (0).
SEA is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — MacKenzie Gore is the arm to exploit it (55).
BAL is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Grant Holmes is the arm to exploit it (36).

How to read these strikeout matchups

Each starter's score (0–100) weighs his strikeout ability against every hitter in the lineup, hand by hand, then factors in how deep he tends to pitch and his command. Higher means more whiffs point his way. The exact weighting is our own — we project a strikeout count and grade every start against what actually happened.

Keep reading

Frequently asked questions

Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Friday, July 24, 2026)?: Tarik Skubal (DET) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 6.1 K against KC. A 29% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?: The top projected-K starts on Friday, July 24, 2026: Tarik Skubal (~6.1 K), Jesús Luzardo (~6.4 K), Bryce Miller (~5.8 K), Jared Jones (~5.7 K), Sean Manaea (~5.8 K). The full board ranks every starter.
How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?: It weighs each starter's strikeout ability against the specific hitters he's set to face, hand by hand, then factors in how deep he tends to pitch and his command. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside. The exact way those pieces are weighted and combined is our own model, tuned weekly against results.
Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?: Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.
What's the projected strikeout number?: A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.
What does K/BF mean?: Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.
What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?: Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.
Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?: A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.
What's the confidence meter?: How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.
Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?: Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)
Are these confirmed or projected lineups?: Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

What the strikeouts board is

The Strikeouts board projects how many batters a starting pitcher strikes out, set against the sportsbook's strikeout line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

The pitcher's own strikeout rate — his stuff, blended across recent form and the full season.
The exact lineup he faces: how often those nine hitters go down swinging, weighted by who bats when.
Park and the plate-discipline edge in the matchup (a whiff-prone lineup is a K magnet).

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Where the edge is

This is our sharpest prop. When our projection gaps far from the book's line — 1.5 strikeouts or more — that disagreement has been profitable in a full-season backtest, and it holds up out-of-sample. The book leans on a pitcher's name and season number; we score the exact lineup in front of him, so we catch the spots the line is slow to move on. Most of the value is on the UNDER of an inflated ace line. This season those plays are hitting 61% at a +10% return — graded in the open, day by day.

How to use it

Scan for the biggest gaps between our projected K's and the posted line — those are the Plays of the Day. A small gap isn't a play; the edge is in the wide disagreements, and we grade every one against the real box score.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays