Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Wednesday, August 5, 2026)?

Paul Skenes (PIT) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 6.7 K against MIL. A 30% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.

What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?

The top projected-K starts on Wednesday, August 5, 2026: Paul Skenes (~6.7 K), Sean Burke (~6.4 K), Reid Detmers (~6.3 K), Bryan Woo (~5.7 K), Christian Scott (~5.5 K). The full board ranks every starter.

How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?

It weighs each starter's strikeout ability against the specific hitters he's set to face, hand by hand, then factors in how deep he tends to pitch and his command. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside. The exact way those pieces are weighted and combined is our own model, tuned weekly against results.

Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?

Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.

What's the projected strikeout number?

A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.

Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.

What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?

Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.

Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?

A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.

What's the confidence meter?

How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.

Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?

Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)

Are these confirmed or projected lineups?

Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.

Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB strikeouts matchups — Wednesday, August 5, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Wednesday, August 5, 2026 slate — ranked by strikeout upside against today's lineup. Tap any card for the full breakdown.

★ Plays of the Day

Plays post once today's odds and lineups are in. We pull the books' lines around 10am ET, then surface strikeout plays as each lineup goes final. The board fills through the day — turn on alerts (the bell up top) to get pinged the moment plays post. This season strikeout PODs are hitting 60% — a +9% return.

2:10 PM ET

TORaway

HOUhomeTop matchup34 2:20 PM ET

LADaway

CHChomeTop matchup50 2:35 PM ET

SFaway

TEXhomeTop matchup48 3:10 PM ET

TBaway

COLhomeTop matchup12 6:35 PM ET

LAAaway

BALhomeTop matchup89 6:40 PM ET

NYMaway

CLEhomeTop matchup62 6:40 PM ET

ATHaway

CINhomeTop matchup23 6:40 PM ET

WSHaway

PHIhomeTop matchup29 7:05 PM ET

STLaway

NYYhomeTop matchup51 7:10 PM ET

CWSaway

BOShomeTop matchup91 7:15 PM ET

MIAaway

ATLhomeTop matchup60 7:40 PM ET

MINaway

KChomeTop matchup48 7:40 PM ET

PITaway

MILhomeTop matchup100 9:40 PM ET

SDaway

AZhomeTop matchup49 9:40 PM ET

DETaway

SEAhomeTop matchup71

PROJ30 on a projected lineup — updates ~2h before first pitch

Sort

#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher strikeouts Rate30.0% K / BF

vs LHB28.5%

vs RHB29.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)22.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jul 7vs ATL4

Jul 12vs MIL7

Jul 19@ CLE8

Jul 25vs CHC11

Jul 31@ CIN7

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Brice Turang (L)22.7%3.0

2. Jackson Chourio (R)22.9%3.0

3. Garrett Mitchell (L)27.7%3.0

4. William Contreras (R)17.6%3.0

5. Christian Yelich (L)23.2%3.0

6. Andrew Vaughn (R)18.8%2.1

7. Luis Lara (L)22.0%2.0

8. Cooper Pratt (R)19.9%2.0

9. David Hamilton (L)21.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Paul Skenes's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate27.7% K / BF

vs LHB25.9%

vs RHB27.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)21.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.5 BF

Expected batters faced23.5

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jul 4@ CLE11

Jul 10vs ATH9

Jul 19@ TOR5

Jul 25vs HOU10

Jul 30vs NYY10

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Nick Sogard (L)22.0%3.0

2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)18.7%3.0

3. Wilyer Abreu (L)22.0%3.0

4. Willson Contreras (R)26.2%3.0

5. Masataka Yoshida (L)22.0%3.0

6. Caleb Durbin (R)15.9%2.5

7. Jarren Duran (L)25.7%2.0

8. Andruw Monasterio (R)22.8%2.0

9. Connor Wong (R)26.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Sean Burke's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate28.5% K / BF

vs LHB24.0%

vs RHB29.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.4 BF

Expected batters faced22.4

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jul 3vs BOS5

Jul 9@ TEX6

Jul 17vs DET7

Jul 22vs STL6

Jul 28vs HOU9

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Dylan Beavers (L)22.0%3.0

2. Pete Alonso (R)22.0%3.0

3. Gunnar Henderson (L)21.1%3.0

4. Christian Encarnacion-Strand (R)22.6%3.0

5. Jackson Holliday (L)22.0%2.4

6. Coby Mayo (R)26.0%2.0

7. Christian Franklin (R)22.0%2.0

8. Colton Cowser (L)28.9%2.0

9. Carlos Narváez (R)25.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Reid Detmers's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.7% K / BF

vs LHB24.7%

vs RHB23.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 30vs LAA5

Jul 7@ MIA5

Jul 18vs SF7

Jul 25@ TEX5

Jul 30@ LAD8

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Gleyber Torres (R)21.6%3.0

2. Dillon Dingler (R)22.7%3.0

3. Kevin McGonigle (L)22.0%3.0

4. Eduardo Valencia (R)22.0%3.0

5. Spencer Torkelson (R)22.0%3.0

6. Hao-Yu Lee (R)22.0%2.4

7. Max Clark (L)22.0%2.0

8. Ben Malgeri (R)22.0%2.0

9. Zach McKinstry (L)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Bryan Woo's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate27.2% K / BF

vs LHB25.6%

vs RHB26.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.5 BF

Expected batters faced21.5

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jul 3@ ATL7

Jul 8vs KC5

Jul 16@ PHI7

Jul 22@ MIL6

Jul 29vs ATL7

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Steven Kwan (L)22.0%3.0

2. Jo Adell (R)24.7%3.0

3. Chase DeLauter (L)16.1%3.0

4. Rhys Hoskins (R)22.0%2.5

5. Angel Martínez (L)25.0%2.0

6. Travis Bazzana (L)22.0%2.0

7. Gabriel Arias (R)22.0%2.0

8. Austin Hedges (R)23.1%2.0

9. Brayan Rocchio (L)18.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Christian Scott's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.1% K / BF

vs LHB21.7%

vs RHB21.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.3 BF

Expected batters faced24.3

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jul 4@ LAA7

Jul 10@ NYM3

Jul 19vs TB5

Jul 25vs TOR3

Jul 30@ ATH5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Chase Meidroth (R)20.7%3.0

2. Munetaka Murakami (L)28.1%3.0

3. Miguel Vargas (R)19.5%3.0

4. Randal Grichuk (R)22.0%3.0

5. Colson Montgomery (L)32.5%3.0

6. Joey Bart (R)22.0%3.0

7. Brenton Doyle (R)27.4%2.3

8. Braden Montgomery (L)20.3%2.0

9. Luisangel Acuña (R)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Sonny Gray's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.9% K / BF

vs LHB28.4%

vs RHB20.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.2 BF

Expected batters faced22.2

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jul 5@ ATH8

Jul 11vs CLE6

Jul 19@ MIL9

Jul 25vs SD2

Jul 30@ NYM6

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Drake Baldwin (L)18.8%3.0

2. Ronald Acuña Jr. (R)22.0%3.0

3. Matt Olson (L)22.0%3.0

4. Michael Harris II (L)22.0%3.0

5. Ozzie Albies (L)22.0%2.3

6. Mike Yastrzemski (L)22.0%2.0

7. Dominic Smith (L)22.0%2.0

8. Austin Riley (R)30.9%2.0

9. Jim Jarvis (L)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Eury Pérez's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.0% K / BF

vs LHB20.8%

vs RHB26.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.6 BF

Expected batters faced21.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jul 1vs DET7

Jul 7@ TB3

Jul 12@ WSH2

Jul 26@ PHI5

Jul 31@ CHC7

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness19.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. JJ Wetherholt (L)17.7%3.0

2. Iván Herrera (R)21.1%3.0

3. José Fermín (R)15.7%3.0

4. Nelson Velázquez (R)22.0%2.6

5. Masyn Winn (R)20.8%2.0

6. Blaze Jordan (R)17.1%2.0

7. Nathan Church (L)21.0%2.0

8. Pedro Pagés (R)22.0%2.0

9. Bryan Torres (L)20.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Will Warren's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.1% K / BF

vs LHB24.4%

vs RHB21.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jul 4vs STL8

Jul 10@ CIN5

Jul 19vs MIN4

Jul 25@ PIT4

Jul 31vs NYY6

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Shohei Ohtani (L)23.7%3.0

2. Andy Pages (R)19.9%3.0

3. Freddie Freeman (L)20.6%3.0

4. Max Muncy (L)25.0%3.0

5. Mookie Betts (R)14.0%2.9

6. Kyle Tucker (L)20.0%2.0

7. Teoscar Hernández (R)20.9%2.0

8. Tommy Edman (R)21.8%2.0

9. Ben Rortvedt (L)22.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Shota Imanaga's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.2% K / BF

vs LHB22.5%

vs RHB23.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.1 BF

Expected batters faced22.1

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 29@ NYY10

Jul 5@ TEX4

Jul 11vs PHI5

Jul 19@ LAA5

Jul 25vs KC3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Corbin Carroll (L)23.4%3.0

2. Geraldo Perdomo (L)14.6%3.0

3. Max Kepler (L)19.8%3.0

4. Ketel Marte (L)18.4%3.0

5. Nolan Arenado (R)21.2%2.1

6. Adrian Del Castillo (L)25.3%2.0

7. Tim Tawa (R)21.5%2.0

8. James McCann (R)24.6%2.0

9. Ryan Waldschmidt (R)27.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Casey Mize's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.7% K / BF

vs LHB21.9%

vs RHB19.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 27@ SF4

Jul 9@ PIT3

Jul 20vs SD4

Jul 25@ BAL8

Jul 31vs WSH3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Kyle Stowers (L)28.5%3.0

2. Griffin Conine (L)27.9%3.0

3. Otto Lopez (R)15.7%3.0

4. Owen Caissie (L)30.1%3.0

5. Heriberto Hernández (R)22.0%3.0

6. Jakob Marsee (L)22.9%2.0

7. Leo Jiménez (R)21.0%2.0

8. Joe Mack (L)24.0%2.0

9. Javier Sanoja (R)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Bryce Elder's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.1% K / BF

vs LHB20.3%

vs RHB24.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.5 BF

Expected batters faced22.5

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jul 1vs CWS4

Jul 8vs CHC4

Jul 17@ HOU5

Jul 22@ BOS5

Jul 28@ DET4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Carter Jensen (L)25.7%3.0

2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)21.1%3.0

3. Jac Caglianone (L)23.6%3.0

4. Salvador Perez (R)21.3%3.0

5. Michael Massey (L)17.7%2.5

6. Nick Loftin (R)17.1%2.0

7. Isaac Collins (L)22.5%2.0

8. John Rave (L)22.0%2.0

9. Kyle Isbel (L)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Dean Kremer's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.0% K / BF

vs LHB22.0%

vs RHB22.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Osleivis Basabe (R)20.8%3.0

2. Jung Hoo Lee (L)18.0%3.0

3. Willy Adames (R)25.4%3.0

4. Rafael Devers (L)26.2%3.0

5. Daniel Susac (R)19.4%3.0

6. Buddy Kennedy (R)24.4%2.0

7. Eddys Leonard (R)22.0%2.0

8. Grant McCray (L)24.4%2.0

9. Christian Koss (R)24.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Cody Bradford's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.4% K / BF

vs LHB22.7%

vs RHB20.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.2 BF

Expected batters faced24.2

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 30vs TB0

Jul 6vs PHI7

Jul 11@ BAL9

Jul 19vs SD1

Jul 30@ MIN7

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Trevor Larnach (L)22.0%3.0

2. Ryan Jeffers (R)22.0%3.0

3. Josh Bell (R)22.0%3.0

4. Kody Clemens (L)22.0%3.0

5. Royce Lewis (R)22.0%3.0

6. Brooks Lee (R)21.2%3.0

7. Alan Roden (L)20.6%2.3

8. Luke Keaschall (R)19.8%2.0

9. Ryan Kreidler (R)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Noah Cameron's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate28.0% K / BF

vs LHB24.8%

vs RHB28.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)21.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload15.0 BF

Expected batters faced15.0

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 14vs PHI3

Jun 20@ ATL7

Jun 27vs CHC9

Jul 3@ AZ3

Jul 8@ STL2

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Jake Mangum (R)18.9%2.0

2. Brandon Lowe (L)30.2%2.0

3. Bryan Reynolds (R)24.0%2.0

4. Esmerlyn Valdez (R)24.2%2.0

5. Spencer Horwitz (L)19.9%2.0

6. Nick Gonzales (R)18.6%2.0

7. Endy Rodríguez (R)25.7%1.0

8. Jacob Gonzalez (L)22.0%1.0

9. Jared Triolo (R)22.0%1.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Kyle Harrison's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate18.5% K / BF

vs LHB18.2%

vs RHB19.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.0 BF

Expected batters faced24.0

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jul 3@ CHC2

Jul 9vs MIL2

Jul 19@ AZ3

Jul 25vs CIN8

Jul 30vs CHC3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness24.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Trent Grisham (L)18.6%3.0

2. Ben Rice (L)23.5%3.0

3. Luis García Jr. (L)22.0%3.0

4. Heliot Ramos (R)25.4%3.0

5. Spencer Jones (L)29.7%3.0

6. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)28.0%3.0

7. Ryan McMahon (L)26.5%2.0

8. George Lombard Jr. (R)22.0%2.0

9. Austin Wells (L)23.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Andre Pallante's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.5% K / BF

vs LHB20.8%

vs RHB20.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 4 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 17@ ATL2

Jul 9vs COL4

Jul 26vs LAA7

Jul 31@ SD3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Joc Pederson (L)26.5%3.0

2. Wyatt Langford (R)24.0%3.0

3. Corey Seager (L)27.9%3.0

4. Brandon Nimmo (L)19.7%3.0

5. Ezequiel Duran (R)25.2%2.6

6. Evan Carter (L)24.2%2.0

7. Elias Díaz (R)22.4%2.0

8. Nicky Lopez (L)17.7%2.0

9. Justin Foscue (R)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Carson Whisenhunt's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.7% K / BF

vs LHB25.5%

vs RHB18.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.8 BF

Expected batters faced23.8

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jul 3@ CIN4

Jul 9vs CHC4

Jul 18@ HOU8

Jul 24vs ATL6

Jul 29@ DET6

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Zach Neto (R)22.0%3.0

2. Mike Trout (R)21.1%3.0

3. Nolan Schanuel (L)19.3%3.0

4. Vaughn Grissom (R)17.2%3.0

5. Denzer Guzman (R)25.1%3.0

6. Moisés Ballesteros (L)22.0%2.8

7. Travis d'Arnaud (R)22.0%2.0

8. Jose Siri (R)22.0%2.0

9. Wade Meckler (L)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Trevor Rogers's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.1% K / BF

vs LHB23.8%

vs RHB24.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jul 4vs TB3

Jul 10@ TEX4

Jul 19vs BAL4

Jul 25@ CWS7

Jul 31vs TEX5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness17.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Nathan Lukes (L)13.6%3.0

2. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)15.4%3.0

3. Kazuma Okamoto (R)27.1%3.0

4. George Springer (R)17.8%3.0

5. Alejandro Kirk (R)15.7%2.8

6. Jesús Sánchez (L)22.0%2.0

7. Ernie Clement (R)12.9%2.0

8. Andrés Giménez (L)20.2%2.0

9. Myles Straw (R)14.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hunter Brown's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.0% K / BF

vs LHB22.0%

vs RHB22.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.6 BF

Expected batters faced21.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 27@ PIT4

Jun 2vs ATH6

Jun 7vs SF2

Jul 20vs DET6

Jul 26@ PIT3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Jeremy Peña (R)19.6%3.0

2. Yordan Alvarez (L)17.8%3.0

3. Isaac Paredes (R)14.9%3.0

4. Daulton Varsho (L)20.3%2.6

5. Christian Walker (R)26.2%2.0

6. Jose Altuve (R)20.6%2.0

7. Taylor Trammell (L)26.9%2.0

8. Yainer Diaz (R)16.8%2.0

9. Cam Smith (R)25.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Jameson Taillon's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.2% K / BF

vs LHB21.3%

vs RHB17.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.7 BF

Expected batters faced23.7

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jul 5vs CWS1

Jul 11@ MIA3

Jul 20vs MIN5

Jul 25@ TB5

Jul 31vs AZ3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. A.J. Ewing (L)24.0%3.0

2. Francisco Lindor (L)20.7%3.0

3. Bo Bichette (R)19.8%3.0

4. Francisco Alvarez (R)25.3%3.0

5. Carson Benge (L)21.9%3.0

6. Luis Robert Jr. (R)22.0%2.7

7. Marcus Semien (R)22.0%2.0

8. Jared Young (L)20.3%2.0

9. Luis Torrens (R)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Tanner Bibee's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.1% K / BF

vs LHB20.8%

vs RHB20.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.6 BF

Expected batters faced21.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 7vs MIN2

May 13@ CIN4

May 18vs NYM6

May 23@ ATL7

Jul 30@ ATL1

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Kyle Schwarber (L)32.1%3.0

2. Trea Turner (R)23.1%3.0

3. Bryce Harper (L)21.7%3.0

4. Luis Arraez (L)8.8%2.6

5. Alec Bohm (R)18.4%2.0

6. J.T. Realmuto (R)23.2%2.0

7. Brandon Marsh (L)22.3%2.0

8. Bryson Stott (L)20.0%2.0

9. Justin Crawford (L)19.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Jake Irvin's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.4% K / BF

vs LHB20.4%

vs RHB20.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.1 BF

Expected batters faced22.1

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 24vs CLE3

May 31@ LAD3

Jun 6vs CWS4

Jun 17vs MIA3

Jul 31@ BAL6

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Dylan Crews (R)23.9%3.0

2. Andrés Chaparro (R)21.6%3.0

3. Brady House (R)26.8%3.0

4. CJ Abrams (L)18.2%3.0

5. Harry Ford (R)18.9%2.1

6. Jacob Young (R)22.0%2.0

7. Daylen Lile (L)19.1%2.0

8. Nasim Nuñez (L)20.5%2.0

9. Jorbit Vivas (L)19.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Andrew Painter's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.3% K / BF

vs LHB24.6%

vs RHB20.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload19.8 BF

Expected batters faced19.8

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 31vs NYY3

Jul 10@ CWS1

Jul 19vs WSH6

Jul 24@ MIN4

Jul 29vs BOS8

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Elly De La Cruz (R)22.0%3.0

2. Sal Stewart (R)22.8%2.8

3. JJ Bleday (L)23.7%2.0

4. Tyler Stephenson (R)20.7%2.0

5. Eugenio Suárez (R)22.0%2.0

6. Dane Myers (R)21.6%2.0

7. Héctor Rodríguez (L)22.0%2.0

8. Ke'Bryan Hayes (R)22.0%2.0

9. Matt McLain (R)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Jacob Lopez's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.0% K / BF

vs LHB23.8%

vs RHB16.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 15vs TB4

Jun 29@ ATH2

Jul 6vs COL3

Jul 22@ PHI5

Jul 29vs SEA4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)25.2%3.0

2. Seiya Suzuki (R)22.1%3.0

3. Alex Bregman (R)16.8%3.0

4. Michael Busch (L)21.6%3.0

5. Nico Hoerner (R)15.6%2.6

6. Tyrone Taylor (R)22.0%2.0

7. Dansby Swanson (R)26.9%2.0

8. Pedro Ramírez (R)22.0%2.0

9. Miguel Amaya (R)20.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Eric Lauer's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate25.7% K / BF

vs LHB23.6%

vs RHB26.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload14.3 BF

Expected batters faced14.3

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 2 GamesStrikeouts

May 20vs CLE7

Jun 15@ HOU5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Cole Young (L)17.2%2.0

2. Randy Arozarena (R)22.0%2.0

3. Dominic Canzone (L)21.8%2.0

4. Julio Rodríguez (R)22.0%2.0

5. Josh Naylor (L)22.0%2.0

6. Cal Raleigh (L)25.9%1.3

7. Victor Robles (R)18.5%1.0

8. Colt Emerson (L)27.3%1.0

9. Leo Rivas (L)22.0%1.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Drew Anderson's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.0% K / BF

vs LHB20.5%

vs RHB19.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload20.5 BF

Expected batters faced20.5

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 24vs MIL6

Jun 30@ MIL8

Jul 18@ COL2

Jul 24@ STL4

Jul 30vs PIT5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness19.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Lawrence Butler (L)23.6%3.0

2. Jacob Wilson (R)15.0%3.0

3. Tyler Soderstrom (L)18.9%2.5

4. Jonah Heim (L)22.0%2.0

5. Jeff McNeil (L)14.9%2.0

6. Tommy White (R)22.0%2.0

7. Donovan Walton (L)20.6%2.0

8. Carlos Cortes (L)18.7%2.0

9. Henry Bolte (R)21.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Rhett Lowder's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate15.3% K / BF

vs LHB17.3%

vs RHB15.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.5 BF

Expected batters faced21.5

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jul 3@ HOU3

Jul 10vs SEA1

Jul 20@ TOR0

Jul 25vs CLE5

Jul 31vs CWS2

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Jake McCarthy (L)19.8%3.0

2. Cole Carrigg (L)18.8%3.0

3. Mickey Moniak (L)23.2%3.0

4. Hunter Goodman (R)30.1%2.5

5. TJ Rumfield (L)18.4%2.0

6. Kyle Karros (R)22.9%2.0

7. Willi Castro (L)26.7%2.0

8. Jordan Beck (R)22.0%2.0

9. Ezequiel Tovar (R)22.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Nick Martinez's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate16.0% K / BF

vs LHB16.6%

vs RHB17.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 20vs PIT5

Jun 26@ MIN2

Jul 18vs CIN3

Jul 24@ MIL5

Jul 31vs KC2

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Yandy Díaz (R)18.9%3.0

2. Jonathan Aranda (L)24.0%3.0

3. Junior Caminero (R)19.8%3.0

4. Liam Hicks (L)13.1%3.0

5. Victor Mesa Jr. (L)25.1%2.8

6. Chandler Simpson (L)12.3%2.0

7. Cedric Mullins (L)21.6%2.0

8. Richie Palacios (L)20.6%2.0

9. Taylor Walls (L)26.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Tomoyuki Sugano's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate15.9% K / BF

vs LHB18.4%

vs RHB17.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)1.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.6 BF

Expected batters faced21.6

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 24@ STL3

Jul 12@ LAD0

Jul 20vs ATH4

Jul 25@ WSH3

Jul 31@ CLE2

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)20.8%3.0

2. Jake Cronenworth (L)21.9%3.0

3. Manny Machado (R)22.7%3.0

4. Ty France (R)22.6%2.6

5. Jackson Merrill (L)21.2%2.0

6. Luis Rengifo (R)19.1%2.0

7. Luis Campusano (R)21.9%2.0

8. Xander Bogaerts (R)17.2%2.0

9. Sung-Mun Song (L)21.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Mitch Bratt's full player page →

Best MLB Strikeout Pitcher Matchups — Wednesday, August 5, 2026

Paul Skenes (PIT) is the top strikeout start on the Wednesday, August 5, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 6.7 K, with Sean Burke (CWS) right behind. Every starter on the slate is ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his whiff rate, the lineup he's facing, how deep he goes, and his command. It's the same read DFS and strikeout-prop players make before lock.

Top strikeout spot: Paul Skenes

Paul Skenes (PIT) is the best strikeout matchup on the board at 100, projected for about 6.7 K against MIL. He's missing bats at a 30% clip — strikeouts per batter faced — and MIL has been around league average, going down 22% of the time. He's lined up for about 23 batters, so the volume's there for a big number.

The rest of the top of the board

Sean Burke (CWS) (91) — about 6.4 K vs BOS: a 28% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
Reid Detmers (LAA) (89) — about 6.3 K vs BAL: a 29% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 24% of the time.
Bryan Woo (SEA) (71) — about 5.7 K vs DET: a 25% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
Christian Scott (NYM) (62) — about 5.5 K vs CLE: a 27% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
Sonny Gray (BOS) (61) — about 5.7 K vs CWS: a 21% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 24% of the time.

Whiffiest lineups to attack today

NYY is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Andre Pallante is the arm to exploit it (40).
CWS is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Sonny Gray is the arm to exploit it (61).
MIA is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Bryce Elder is the arm to exploit it (48).
BAL is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Reid Detmers is the arm to exploit it (89).

How to read these strikeout matchups

Each starter's score (0–100) weighs his strikeout ability against every hitter in the lineup, hand by hand, then factors in how deep he tends to pitch and his command. Higher means more whiffs point his way. The exact weighting is our own — we project a strikeout count and grade every start against what actually happened.

Keep reading

Frequently asked questions

Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Wednesday, August 5, 2026)?: Paul Skenes (PIT) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 6.7 K against MIL. A 30% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?: The top projected-K starts on Wednesday, August 5, 2026: Paul Skenes (~6.7 K), Sean Burke (~6.4 K), Reid Detmers (~6.3 K), Bryan Woo (~5.7 K), Christian Scott (~5.5 K). The full board ranks every starter.
How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?: It weighs each starter's strikeout ability against the specific hitters he's set to face, hand by hand, then factors in how deep he tends to pitch and his command. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside. The exact way those pieces are weighted and combined is our own model, tuned weekly against results.
Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?: Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.
What's the projected strikeout number?: A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.
What does K/BF mean?: Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.
What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?: Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.
Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?: A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.
What's the confidence meter?: How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.
Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?: Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)
Are these confirmed or projected lineups?: Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

What the strikeouts board is

The Strikeouts board projects how many batters a starting pitcher strikes out, set against the sportsbook's strikeout line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

The pitcher's own strikeout rate — his stuff, blended across recent form and the full season.
The exact lineup he faces: how often those nine hitters go down swinging, weighted by who bats when.
Park and the plate-discipline edge in the matchup (a whiff-prone lineup is a K magnet).

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Where the edge is

This is our sharpest prop. When our projection gaps far from the book's line — 1.5 strikeouts or more — that disagreement has been profitable in a full-season backtest, and it holds up out-of-sample. The book leans on a pitcher's name and season number; we score the exact lineup in front of him, so we catch the spots the line is slow to move on. Most of the value is on the UNDER of an inflated ace line. This season those plays are hitting 60% at a +9% return — graded in the open, day by day.

How to use it

Scan for the biggest gaps between our projected K's and the posted line — those are the Plays of the Day. A small gap isn't a play; the edge is in the wide disagreements, and we grade every one against the real box score.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays