Best MLB Total Bases Matchups — Tuesday, June 9, 2026
Top total bases spot: Christian Yelich
Christian Yelich (MIL) tops the board at 100, facing RHP J.T. Ginn. The lefty is racking up bases at — TB/PA against righties this year, a solid bat that turns into a total base in about 37% of his trips. And J.T. Ginn has been thin against righties lately. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned J.T. Ginn too — .500 across 2 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Lawrence Butler (ATH) (100) vs LHP Robert Gasser: a solid bat at .370 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Sam Antonacci (CWS) (100) vs RHP Grant Holmes: a solid bat at .370 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Patrick Bailey (CLE) (96) vs RHP Gerrit Cole: a solid bat at .370 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Trent Grisham (NYY) (96) vs RHP Slade Cecconi: a solid bat at .370 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Eli White (ATL) (92) vs LHP Brandon Eisert: a solid bat at .370 into an arm with little track record against the same side, due to bounce back.
- Jake McCarthy (COL) (92) vs RHP Colin Rea: a solid bat at .370 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) (92) vs RHP Tomoyuki Sugano: a solid bat at .370 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park, hot bat.
Arms giving up extra bases today
- RHP J.T. Ginn has been giving up bases to righties — .360 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Christian Yelich (MIL), Jackson Chourio (MIL), and Brice Turang (MIL).
- LHP Robert Gasser has been giving up bases to lefties — .360 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Lawrence Butler (ATH), Nick Kurtz (ATH), and Shea Langeliers (ATH).
- RHP Grant Holmes has been giving up bases to righties — .360 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Sam Antonacci (CWS), Miguel Vargas (CWS), and Andrew Benintendi (CWS).
- RHP Gerrit Cole has been giving up bases to righties — .360 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Patrick Bailey (CLE), José Ramírez (CLE), and Chase DeLauter (CLE).
Best parks for total bases today
Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% extra-base park). Top bat there: Jake McCarthy (COL) at 92.
How it played out
6 of the top 10 total bases matchups landed at least one total base. Top play Christian Yelich finished with 2 total bases. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these total bases matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's total bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the total bases board is
The Total Bases board projects how many bases a hitter racks up vs the posted total-bases line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His extra-base pop vs this arm.
- The park.
- Recent contact quality.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Total bases grades right at break-even even when we tune it to the hilt — the book prices the marginal leans efficiently. Transparency board.
How to use it
See who the model projects for extra-base damage; no systematic edge to bet.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays