Best MLB Total Bases Matchups — Wednesday, June 10, 2026
Top total bases spot: Pete Crow-Armstrong
Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Michael Lorenzen. The lefty is racking up bases at — TB/PA against righties this year, a solid bat that turns into a total base in about 37% of his trips. And Michael Lorenzen has been thin against righties lately. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Michael Lorenzen. It all sets up in a hitter's park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Willi Castro (COL) (100) vs LHP Shota Imanaga: a solid bat at .370 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park.
- Kyle Karros (COL) (92) vs LHP Shota Imanaga: a solid bat at .370 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park.
- Moisés Ballesteros (CHC) (92) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: a solid bat at .370 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park.
- Lane Thomas (KC) (89) vs LHP MacKenzie Gore: a solid bat at .370 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Christian Yelich (MIL) (89) vs RHP Jack Perkins: a solid bat at .370 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) (89) vs RHP Brandon Sproat: a solid bat at .370 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (86) vs RHP Jared Jones: a solid bat at .370 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
Arms giving up extra bases today
- RHP Michael Lorenzen has been giving up bases to righties — .360 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC), Moisés Ballesteros (CHC), and Michael Busch (CHC).
- LHP Shota Imanaga has been giving up bases to lefties — .360 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Willi Castro (COL), Kyle Karros (COL), and TJ Rumfield (COL).
- LHP MacKenzie Gore has been giving up bases to lefties — .360 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Lane Thomas (KC), Bobby Witt Jr. (KC), and Maikel Garcia (KC).
- RHP Jack Perkins has been giving up bases to righties — .360 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Christian Yelich (MIL), Jackson Chourio (MIL), and Brice Turang (MIL).
Best parks for total bases today
Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% extra-base park). Top bat there: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) at 100.
How it played out
7 of the top 10 total bases matchups landed at least one total base. Top play Pete Crow-Armstrong finished with 3 total bases. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these total bases matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's total bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.