Best MLB Total Bases Matchups — Friday, June 12, 2026
Top total bases spot: Shea Langeliers
Shea Langeliers (ATH) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Sean Sullivan. The righty is racking up bases at .671 TB/PA against lefties this year — and 1.167 over the last two weeks, an elite bat that turns into a total base in about 57% of his trips. And Sean Sullivan has been thin against lefties lately. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Sean Sullivan. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Tyler Soderstrom (ATH) (81) vs LHP Sean Sullivan: an excellent bat at .508 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) (78) vs LHP Sean Sullivan: a strong bat at .453 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) (78) vs RHP Landen Roupp: a strong bat at .477 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.571).
- Kody Clemens (MIN) (75) vs RHP Kyle Leahy: an excellent bat at .490 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.438).
- Alec Burleson (STL) (75) vs RHP Joe Ryan: an excellent bat at .512 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.385), hot bat.
- Ketel Marte (AZ) (74) vs LHP Nick Lodolo: a strong bat at .445 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.462).
- Jonah Heim (ATH) (74) vs LHP Sean Sullivan: an excellent bat at .548 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
Arms giving up extra bases today
- RHP Griffin Canning has been getting squared up by righties — .427 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Adley Rutschman (BAL), Pete Alonso (BAL), and Samuel Basallo (BAL).
- LHP Anthony Kay has been vulnerable to lefties — .412 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Alex Call (LAD), Andy Pages (LAD), and Mookie Betts (LAD).
- LHP Nick Lodolo has been vulnerable to lefties — .409 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Ketel Marte (AZ), Corbin Carroll (AZ), and Ildemaro Vargas (AZ).
- RHP Kyle Leahy has been vulnerable to righties — .407 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Kody Clemens (MIN), Josh Bell (MIN), and Trevor Larnach (MIN).
Platoon edges to target
- Shea Langeliers (ATH) — righty bat vs LHP, .671 against lefties this year.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .402 against righties this year.
- Kody Clemens (MIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .439 against righties this year.
- Alec Burleson (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .512 against righties this year.
- Ketel Marte (AZ) — righty bat vs LHP, .493 against lefties this year.
How it played out
8 of the top 10 total bases matchups landed at least one total base. Top play Shea Langeliers finished with 4 total bases. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these total bases matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's total bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the total bases board is
The Total Bases board projects how many bases a hitter racks up vs the posted total-bases line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His extra-base pop vs this arm.
- The park.
- Recent contact quality.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Total bases grades right at break-even even when we tune it to the hilt — the book prices the marginal leans efficiently. Transparency board.
How to use it
See who the model projects for extra-base damage; no systematic edge to bet.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
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