Best MLB Total Bases Matchups — Saturday, June 13, 2026
Top total bases spot: Shea Langeliers
Shea Langeliers (ATH) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Kyle Freeland. The righty is racking up bases at .671 TB/PA against lefties this year — and 1.167 over the last two weeks, an elite bat that turns into a total base in about 57% of his trips. And Kyle Freeland has been getting squared up by lefties lately — .500 total bases per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Kyle Freeland too — 1.000 across 2 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Jonah Heim (ATH) (92) vs LHP Kyle Freeland: an excellent bat at .548 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.500).
- Hunter Goodman (COL) (84) vs RHP Joey Estes: an excellent bat at .488 into an arm with little track record against the same side, due to bounce back.
- Ben Rice (NYY) (78) vs RHP Kevin Gausman: a strong bat at .480 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.643).
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) (78) vs RHP Trevor McDonald: a strong bat at .477 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.448).
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) (76) vs LHP Kyle Freeland: a strong bat at .453 into an arm tough on the same side (.125), hot bat.
- JJ Bleday (CIN) (76) vs RHP Michael Soroka: a strong bat at .464 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.486).
- Colby Thomas (ATH) (71) vs LHP Kyle Freeland: a solid bat at .385 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.500).
Arms giving up extra bases today
- RHP Joey Estes has been getting squared up by righties — .493 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Hunter Goodman (COL), TJ Rumfield (COL), and Willi Castro (COL).
- LHP Joey Cantillo has been getting squared up by lefties — .466 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Gleyber Torres (DET), Matt Vierling (DET), and Dillon Dingler (DET).
- LHP Kyle Freeland has been getting squared up by lefties — .459 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Shea Langeliers (ATH), Jonah Heim (ATH), and Nick Kurtz (ATH).
- RHP Mike Burrows has been getting squared up by righties — .446 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Vinnie Pasquantino (KC), Carter Jensen (KC), and Bobby Witt Jr. (KC).
Platoon edges to target
- Shea Langeliers (ATH) — righty bat vs LHP, .671 against lefties this year.
- Jonah Heim (ATH) — righty bat vs LHP, .674 against lefties this year.
- Ben Rice (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .546 against righties this year.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .402 against righties this year.
- JJ Bleday (CIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .540 against righties this year.
How it played out
5 of the top 10 total bases matchups landed at least one total base. Top play Shea Langeliers finished with 2 total bases. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these total bases matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's total bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the total bases board is
The Total Bases board projects how many bases a hitter racks up vs the posted total-bases line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His extra-base pop vs this arm.
- The park.
- Recent contact quality.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Total bases grades right at break-even even when we tune it to the hilt — the book prices the marginal leans efficiently. Transparency board.
How to use it
See who the model projects for extra-base damage; no systematic edge to bet.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
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