Best MLB Total Bases Matchups — Sunday, June 14, 2026
Top total bases spot: Nick Kurtz
Nick Kurtz (ATH) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Tomoyuki Sugano. The lefty is racking up bases at .429 TB/PA against righties this year — and .600 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a total base in about 46% of his trips. And Tomoyuki Sugano has been getting squared up by righties lately — .611 total bases per batter faced. The bullpen behind him hasn't been any better to that side, so there's no relief late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Tomoyuki Sugano too — .333 across 3 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Alec Burleson (STL) (95) vs RHP Taj Bradley: an excellent bat at .528 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.500), hot bat.
- Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) (92) vs LHP Patrick Corbin: an excellent bat at .496 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.556), hot bat.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) (90) vs RHP Logan Webb: an excellent bat at .518 into an arm tough on the same side (.158).
- Byron Buxton (MIN) (86) vs RHP Michael McGreevy: an excellent bat at .501 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.458).
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (83) vs RHP Stephen Kolek: an excellent bat at .502 into an arm tough on the same side (.300).
- Kody Clemens (MIN) (83) vs RHP Michael McGreevy: an excellent bat at .503 into an arm tough on the same side (.273).
- JJ Bleday (CIN) (81) vs RHP Zac Gallen: a strong bat at .440 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.500).
Arms giving up extra bases today
- LHP Jeffrey Springs has been getting squared up by lefties — .457 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Tyler Freeman (COL), Willi Castro (COL), and Hunter Goodman (COL).
- RHP Tomoyuki Sugano has been getting squared up by righties — .453 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Nick Kurtz (ATH), Lawrence Butler (ATH), and Tyler Soderstrom (ATH).
- RHP Casey Legumina has been getting squared up by righties — .431 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Zach Neto (LAA), Mike Trout (LAA), and Wade Meckler (LAA).
- RHP Nathan Eovaldi has been getting squared up by righties — .428 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Wilyer Abreu (BOS), Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS), and Willson Contreras (BOS).
Platoon edges to target
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .429 against righties this year.
- Alec Burleson (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .522 against righties this year.
- Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) — righty bat vs LHP, .643 against lefties this year.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .431 against righties this year.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .529 against righties this year.
How it played out
10 of the top 10 total bases matchups landed at least one total base. Top play Nick Kurtz finished with 2 total bases. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these total bases matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's total bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the total bases board is
The Total Bases board projects how many bases a hitter racks up vs the posted total-bases line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His extra-base pop vs this arm.
- The park.
- Recent contact quality.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Total bases grades right at break-even even when we tune it to the hilt — the book prices the marginal leans efficiently. Transparency board.
How to use it
See who the model projects for extra-base damage; no systematic edge to bet.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
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