Who has the best total bases matchup today (Monday, June 15, 2026)?

Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Michael Lorenzen. An excellent bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB total bases matchups today (Monday, June 15, 2026)?

The top total bases matchups on Monday, June 15, 2026: Pete Crow-Armstrong (100), Nick Kurtz (85), Yordan Alvarez (78), James Wood (76), Luis García Jr. (73). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by total bases upside.

Did the top total bases matchup get a total base on Monday, June 15, 2026?

Yes — Pete Crow-Armstrong got 10 total bases.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .432 against righties this year. Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .431 against righties this year. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .526 against righties this year. James Wood (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .474 against righties this year. Luis García Jr. (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .436 against righties this year.

Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?

RHP Michael Lorenzen has been getting squared up by righties — .450 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC), Michael Busch (CHC), and Ian Happ (CHC). RHP Mitch Spence has been getting squared up by righties — .433 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: James Wood (WSH), Luis García Jr. (WSH), and CJ Abrams (WSH). RHP Nick Martinez has been getting squared up by righties — .428 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Andy Pages (LAD), Shohei Ohtani (LAD), and Freddie Freeman (LAD). RHP Jared Jones has been getting squared up by righties — .426 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Nick Kurtz (ATH), Tyler Soderstrom (ATH), and Carlos Cortes (ATH).

How is the total bases matchup score calculated?

It's his bases-per-trip rate against that hand, recent form weighted heaviest, over a two-year baseline. Because this counts extra-base damage, slug matters as much as contact. Then the bullpen, order spot, and the yard. 0–100 across the slate.

What does TB/PA mean?

Total bases is 1 for a single, 2 for a double, 3 for a triple, 4 for a homer — so it rewards power, not just contact. Per plate appearance, around .37 is league average; .50+ is big-time slug. It's the cleanest power matchup we run: both the bat's slug and the arm's slug-against are real.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better. Total bases rewards the guys who do damage rather than just make contact, so this board leans slugger where the hits board leans average. It ranks today's spots, not the odds of any particular number.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a total base.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Total bases blends contact and power, so the platoon gap cuts twice: the opposite hand means both more balls in play and more of them driven. A hitter with a big split can swing a full base per game between the two matchups.

What are park factors?

Every extra foot of outfield is a base. Gaps and altitude turn singles into doubles and doubles into triples, while a small park trades the same batted ball for a home run. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a total base in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for total bases props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ total base" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against the box score. Total bases is one of the steadier props we publish — more ways to clear the line means less variance — and the top of the board beats the slate consistently. Every past date is auditable.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB total bases matchups — Monday, June 15, 2026

Every hitter on the Monday, June 15, 2026 slate — ranked by total-base upside — the best power and extra-base spots. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Monday, June 15, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 4/5 (80%) on our total-bases over/under, against 55% on the season.

Top 5

4/580%

season 55%

Top 10

4/1040%

season 52%

Full slate

78/18043%

season 51%

Top call Pete Crow-Armstrong came through. Luis García Jr. didn't.

Each hitter below carries a 0–100 matchup score — a read on the spot in front of him, not a ranking of how good he is, so a star in a brutal matchup can sit below an average hitter in a soft one. Confidence next to it is coverage: how much real data backs the number. Every call here was graded against the box score — wins and misses both, with the record on this page. How this board is built →

Final · 0–7

MIAaway

PHIhomeTop matchup62 Final · 3–7

KCaway

WSHhomeTop matchup76 Final · 0–12

NYMaway

CINhomeTop matchup65 Final · 0–3

SDaway

STLhomeTop matchup61 Final · 4–5

COLaway

CHChomeTop matchup100 Final · 4–2

MINaway

TEXhomeTop matchup62 Final · 9–3

DETaway

HOUhomeTop matchup78 Final · 3–4

LAAaway

AZhomeTop matchup62 Final · 2–11

PITaway

ATHhomeTop matchup85 Final · 3–4

TBaway

LADhomeTop matchup70

Not starting47 not in the official lineup — moved to the bottom

PosSort

#Hitter · Matchup · 227 shownScore

104 with a TBLive count — updates as games play

1
Colt Keith3B
DET@HOU· 3-for-4
12TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #125
2
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF
CHCvsCOL· 4-for-4
10TBFinal
Proj 2.3 TB, #1
3
Nick Kurtz1B
ATHvsPIT· 3-for-4
9TBFinal
Proj 2.1 TB, #2
4
Eugenio SuárezDH
CINvsNYM· 2-for-4
8TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #107
5
Endy RodríguezC
PIT@ATH· 3-for-3
6TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #75
T5
Jeff McNeil2B
ATHvsPIT· 3-for-4
6TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #159
7
JJ BledayLF
CINvsNYM· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #11
T7
Bo Bichette3B
NYM@CIN· 3-for-5
5TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #33
T7
Kevin McGonigleSS
DET@HOU· 2-for-3
5TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #35
T7
Joc PedersonDH
TEXvsMIN· 2-for-3
5TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #58
T7
Ryan ViladeRF
TB@LAD· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #63
T7
Mike TroutCF
LAA@AZ· 2-for-3
5TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #89
T7
Donovan Walton2B
LAA@AZ· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #116
T7
Kyle TuckerRF
LADvsTB· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #119
T7
Josh BellDH
MIN@TEX· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #136
T7
Pavin Smith1B
AZvsLAA· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.2 TB, #179
17
Byron BuxtonCF
MIN@TEX· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #16
T17
Dillon DinglerC
DET@HOU· 2-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #24
T17
Isaac Paredes3B
HOUvsDET· 1-for-1
4TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #76
T17
Cole CarriggCF
COL@CHC· 1-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #83
T17
Matt ShawRF
CHCvsCOL· 2-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #98
T17
Jose Altuve2B
HOUvsDET· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #113
T17
Spencer Torkelson1B
DET@HOU· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #129
T17
Gabriel Rincones Jr.RF
PHIvsMIA· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #140
T17
Dylan CrewsRF
WSHvsKC· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #142
T17
J.T. RealmutoC
PHIvsMIA· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #147
27
Yordan AlvarezDH
HOUvsDET· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 2.0 TB, #3
T27
Jac CaglianoneRF
KC@WSH· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #13
T27
Brandon MarshLF
PHIvsMIA· 2-for-5
3TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #53
T27
Junior Caminero3B
TB@LAD· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #60
T27
Lawrence ButlerRF
ATHvsPIT· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #92
T27
Jo AdellRF
LAA@AZ· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #97
T27
Nick Loftin3B
KC@WSH· 2-for-3
3TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #143
T27
Henry BolteCF
ATHvsPIT· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #157
T27
Justin CrawfordCF
PHIvsMIA· 3-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #168
36
James WoodRF
WSHvsKC· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 2.0 TB, #4
T36
Willi Castro2B
COL@CHC· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #12
T36
Liam HicksC
MIA@PHI· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #17
T36
Jordan WalkerRF
STLvsSD· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #20
T36
Hunter GoodmanC
COL@CHC· 2-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #21
T36
Alex Bregman3B
CHCvsCOL· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #25
T36
Spencer Horwitz1B
PIT@ATH· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #27
T36
Jonathan Aranda1B
TB@LAD· 2-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #41
T36
Mookie BettsSS
LADvsTB· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #44
T36
Blake DunnCF
CINvsNYM· 1-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #46
T36
Ryan WardLF
LADvsTB· 1-for-2
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #57
T36
Lars NootbaarLF
STLvsSD· 2-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #82
T36
Jacob WilsonSS
ATHvsPIT· 1-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #90
T36
Austin MartinRF
MIN@TEX· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #94
T36
Logan O'HoppeC
LAA@AZ· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #109
T36
Geraldo PerdomoSS
AZvsLAA· 1-for-2
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #115
T36
Jimmy CrooksC
STLvsSD· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #120
T36
Alec Burleson1B
STLvsSD· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #127
T36
Masyn WinnSS
STLvsSD· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #130
T36
Joe MackC
MIA@PHI· 1-for-1
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #134
T36
Tyler StephensonC
CINvsNYM· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #148
T36
Cam SmithRF
HOUvsDET· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #162
T36
Nasim Nuñez2B
WSHvsKC· 2-for-2
2TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #171
T36
Edmundo SosaLF
PHIvsMIA· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #173
T36
Pedro Ramírez2B
CHCvsCOL· 2-for-2
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB
T36
Hao-Yu Lee2B
DET@HOU· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB
62
Luis García Jr.1B
WSHvsKC· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 2.0 TB, #5
T62
Brandon Lowe2B
PIT@ATH· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #8
T62
Tyler SoderstromLF
ATHvsPIT· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #15
T62
Wade MecklerLF
LAA@AZ· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #18
T62
Freddie Freeman1B
LADvsTB· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #22
T62
Ryan O'HearnRF
PIT@ATH· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #31
T62
Max Muncy3B
LADvsTB· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #32
T62
Riley GreeneLF
DET@HOU· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #37
T62
Carson BengeRF
NYM@CIN· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #40
T62
Tyler FreemanRF
COL@CHC· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #43
T62
Kyle SchwarberDH
PHIvsMIA· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #47
T62
Daylen LileLF
WSHvsKC· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #50
T62
Corbin CarrollRF
AZvsLAA· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #56
T62
Ben Williamson2B
TB@LAD· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #59
T62
Shea LangeliersC
ATHvsPIT· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #64
T62
Bryan ReynoldsLF
PIT@ATH· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #68
T62
Jeremy PeñaSS
HOUvsDET· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #77
T62
Sal Stewart1B
CINvsNYM· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #78
T62
Gabriel MorenoC
AZvsLAA· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #79
T62
Lane ThomasLF
KC@WSH· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #81
T62
Jake Burger1B
TEXvsMIN· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #84
T62
Maikel Garcia3B
KC@WSH· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #85
T62
Zack Gelof3B
ATHvsPIT· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #86
T62
Heriberto HernándezLF
MIA@PHI· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #87
T62
Ketel Marte2B
AZvsLAA· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #93
T62
Jake MangumCF
PIT@ATH· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #95
T62
Keibert RuizC
WSHvsKC· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #96
T62
Manny Machado3B
SD@STL· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #99
T62
Jake McCarthyLF
COL@CHC· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #103
T62
Elias DíazC
TEXvsMIN· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #104
T62
Curtis Mead3B
WSHvsKC· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #106
T62
Denzer Guzman3B
LAA@AZ· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #114
T62
Austin SlaterRF
TB@LAD· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #118
T62
Francisco AlvarezC
NYM@CIN· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #138
T62
Starling MarteRF
KC@WSH· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #141
T62
Carter JensenC
KC@WSH· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #145
T62
Edwin Arroyo2B
CINvsNYM· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #150
T62
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.LF
AZvsLAA· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #153
T62
Nicky Lopez2B
TEXvsMIN· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #156
T62
Jakob MarseeCF
MIA@PHI· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #164
T62
Nolan Arenado3B
AZvsLAA· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #169
T62
Oswald Peraza2B
LAA@AZ· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #170
T62
Jake MeyersCF
HOUvsDET· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB

Best MLB Total Bases Matchups — Monday, June 15, 2026

Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) is the top total bases matchup on the Monday, June 15, 2026 board at 100, with Nick Kurtz (ATH) and Yordan Alvarez (HOU) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by total-base upside — the best power and extra-base spots — raw power, the arm and bullpen they face, batting order, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top total bases spot: Pete Crow-Armstrong

Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Michael Lorenzen. The lefty is racking up bases at .432 TB/PA against righties this year — and .767 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a total base in about 49% of his trips. And Michael Lorenzen has been giving up bases to righties lately — .375 total bases per batter faced. The bullpen behind him hasn't been any better to that side, so there's no relief late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Michael Lorenzen too — .333 across 3 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.

The rest of the top of the board

Nick Kurtz (ATH) (85) vs RHP Jared Jones: a strong bat at .458 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.474), hot bat.
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (78) vs RHP Drew Anderson: an excellent bat at .496 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.789), hot bat.
James Wood (WSH) (76) vs RHP Mitch Spence: a strong bat at .445 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hot bat.
Luis García Jr. (WSH) (73) vs RHP Mitch Spence: a strong bat at .450 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
Andy Pages (LAD) (70) vs RHP Nick Martinez: a solid bat at .411 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.708).
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (70) vs RHP Nick Martinez: a strong bat at .450 into an arm mostly containing the same side (.320).
Brandon Lowe (PIT) (70) vs RHP J.T. Ginn: a strong bat at .439 into an arm giving up bases to the same side (.378), due to bounce back.

Arms giving up extra bases today

RHP Michael Lorenzen has been getting squared up by righties — .450 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC), Michael Busch (CHC), and Ian Happ (CHC).
RHP Mitch Spence has been getting squared up by righties — .433 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: James Wood (WSH), Luis García Jr. (WSH), and CJ Abrams (WSH).
RHP Nick Martinez has been getting squared up by righties — .428 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Andy Pages (LAD), Shohei Ohtani (LAD), and Freddie Freeman (LAD).
RHP Jared Jones has been getting squared up by righties — .426 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Nick Kurtz (ATH), Tyler Soderstrom (ATH), and Carlos Cortes (ATH).

Platoon edges to target

Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .432 against righties this year.
Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .431 against righties this year.
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .526 against righties this year.
James Wood (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .474 against righties this year.
Luis García Jr. (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .436 against righties this year.

How it played out

6 of the top 10 total bases matchups landed at least one total base. Top play Pete Crow-Armstrong finished with 10 total bases. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these total bases matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's total bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

What the total bases board is

The Total Bases board projects how many bases a hitter racks up vs the posted total-bases line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

His extra-base pop vs this arm.
The park.
Recent contact quality.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Total bases grades right at break-even even when we tune it to the hilt — the book prices the marginal leans efficiently. Transparency board.

How to use it

See who the model projects for extra-base damage; no systematic edge to bet.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best total bases matchup today (Monday, June 15, 2026)?: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Michael Lorenzen. An excellent bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB total bases matchups today (Monday, June 15, 2026)?: The top total bases matchups on Monday, June 15, 2026: Pete Crow-Armstrong (100), Nick Kurtz (85), Yordan Alvarez (78), James Wood (76), Luis García Jr. (73). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by total bases upside.
Did the top total bases matchup get a total base on Monday, June 15, 2026?: Yes — Pete Crow-Armstrong got 10 total bases.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .432 against righties this year. Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .431 against righties this year. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .526 against righties this year. James Wood (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .474 against righties this year. Luis García Jr. (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .436 against righties this year.
Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?: RHP Michael Lorenzen has been getting squared up by righties — .450 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC), Michael Busch (CHC), and Ian Happ (CHC). RHP Mitch Spence has been getting squared up by righties — .433 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: James Wood (WSH), Luis García Jr. (WSH), and CJ Abrams (WSH). RHP Nick Martinez has been getting squared up by righties — .428 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Andy Pages (LAD), Shohei Ohtani (LAD), and Freddie Freeman (LAD). RHP Jared Jones has been getting squared up by righties — .426 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Nick Kurtz (ATH), Tyler Soderstrom (ATH), and Carlos Cortes (ATH).
How is the total bases matchup score calculated?: It's his bases-per-trip rate against that hand, recent form weighted heaviest, over a two-year baseline. Because this counts extra-base damage, slug matters as much as contact. Then the bullpen, order spot, and the yard. 0–100 across the slate.
What does TB/PA mean?: Total bases is 1 for a single, 2 for a double, 3 for a triple, 4 for a homer — so it rewards power, not just contact. Per plate appearance, around .37 is league average; .50+ is big-time slug. It's the cleanest power matchup we run: both the bat's slug and the arm's slug-against are real.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better. Total bases rewards the guys who do damage rather than just make contact, so this board leans slugger where the hits board leans average. It ranks today's spots, not the odds of any particular number.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a total base.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Total bases blends contact and power, so the platoon gap cuts twice: the opposite hand means both more balls in play and more of them driven. A hitter with a big split can swing a full base per game between the two matchups.
What are park factors?: Every extra foot of outfield is a base. Gaps and altitude turn singles into doubles and doubles into triples, while a small park trades the same batted ball for a home run. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a total base in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for total bases props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ total base" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against the box score. Total bases is one of the steadier props we publish — more ways to clear the line means less variance — and the top of the board beats the slate consistently. Every past date is auditable.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.