Best MLB Total Bases Matchups — Monday, June 15, 2026
Top total bases spot: Pete Crow-Armstrong
Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Michael Lorenzen. The lefty is racking up bases at .432 TB/PA against righties this year — and .767 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a total base in about 49% of his trips. And Michael Lorenzen has been giving up bases to righties lately — .375 total bases per batter faced. The bullpen behind him hasn't been any better to that side, so there's no relief late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Michael Lorenzen too — .333 across 3 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) (85) vs RHP Jared Jones: a strong bat at .458 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.474), hot bat.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (78) vs RHP Drew Anderson: an excellent bat at .496 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.789), hot bat.
- James Wood (WSH) (76) vs RHP Mitch Spence: a strong bat at .445 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hot bat.
- Luis García Jr. (WSH) (73) vs RHP Mitch Spence: a strong bat at .450 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Andy Pages (LAD) (70) vs RHP Nick Martinez: a solid bat at .411 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.708).
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (70) vs RHP Nick Martinez: a strong bat at .450 into an arm mostly containing the same side (.320).
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) (70) vs RHP J.T. Ginn: a strong bat at .439 into an arm giving up bases to the same side (.378), due to bounce back.
Arms giving up extra bases today
- RHP Michael Lorenzen has been getting squared up by righties — .450 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC), Michael Busch (CHC), and Ian Happ (CHC).
- RHP Mitch Spence has been getting squared up by righties — .433 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: James Wood (WSH), Luis García Jr. (WSH), and CJ Abrams (WSH).
- RHP Nick Martinez has been getting squared up by righties — .428 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Andy Pages (LAD), Shohei Ohtani (LAD), and Freddie Freeman (LAD).
- RHP Jared Jones has been getting squared up by righties — .426 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Nick Kurtz (ATH), Tyler Soderstrom (ATH), and Carlos Cortes (ATH).
Platoon edges to target
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .432 against righties this year.
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .431 against righties this year.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .526 against righties this year.
- James Wood (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .474 against righties this year.
- Luis García Jr. (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .436 against righties this year.
How it played out
6 of the top 10 total bases matchups landed at least one total base. Top play Pete Crow-Armstrong finished with 10 total bases. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these total bases matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's total bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.