Best MLB Total Bases Matchups — Tuesday, June 16, 2026
Top total bases spot: Alec Burleson
Alec Burleson (STL) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Michael King. The lefty is racking up bases at .533 TB/PA against righties this year — and .921 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a total base in about 55% of his trips. And Michael King has been getting squared up by righties lately — .478 total bases per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's a fine .286 in 7 career PA against Michael King. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) (98) vs RHP Ryan Feltner: an excellent bat at .490 into an arm tough on the same side (.200), hot bat.
- James Wood (WSH) (93) vs RHP Michael Wacha: a strong bat at .445 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.611), hot bat.
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) (92) vs RHP Mitch Keller: a strong bat at .458 into an arm tough on the same side (.294), hot bat.
- Jackson Chourio (MIL) (91) vs RHP Slade Cecconi: an excellent bat at .482 into an arm tough on the same side (.250), hot bat.
- Luis García Jr. (WSH) (89) vs RHP Michael Wacha: a strong bat at .450 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.611).
- Hunter Goodman (COL) (88) vs RHP Edward Cabrera: an excellent bat at .488 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.857).
- JJ Bleday (CIN) (83) vs RHP Kodai Senga: a strong bat at .459 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
Arms giving up extra bases today
- RHP Merrill Kelly has been getting squared up by righties — .456 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Wade Meckler (LAA), Nolan Schanuel (LAA), and Zach Neto (LAA).
- RHP Edward Cabrera has been getting squared up by righties — .436 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Hunter Goodman (COL), Jake McCarthy (COL), and TJ Rumfield (COL).
- RHP Zebby Matthews has been getting squared up by righties — .429 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Josh Jung (TEX), Joc Pederson (TEX), and Wyatt Langford (TEX).
- RHP Brady Singer has been getting squared up by righties — .428 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Juan Soto (NYM), Jared Young (NYM), and Carson Benge (NYM).
Platoon edges to target
- Alec Burleson (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .533 against righties this year.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .432 against righties this year.
- James Wood (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .474 against righties this year.
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .431 against righties this year.
- Luis García Jr. (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .436 against righties this year.
How it played out
7 of the top 10 total bases matchups landed at least one total base. Top play Alec Burleson finished with 1 total base. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these total bases matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's total bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.