Who has the best total bases matchup today (Tuesday, June 16, 2026)?

Alec Burleson (STL) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Michael King. An excellent bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB total bases matchups today (Tuesday, June 16, 2026)?

The top total bases matchups on Tuesday, June 16, 2026: Alec Burleson (100), Pete Crow-Armstrong (98), James Wood (93), Nick Kurtz (92), Jackson Chourio (91). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by total bases upside.

Did the top total bases matchup get a total base on Tuesday, June 16, 2026?

Yes — Alec Burleson got 1 total base.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Alec Burleson (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .533 against righties this year. Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .432 against righties this year. James Wood (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .474 against righties this year. Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .431 against righties this year. Luis García Jr. (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .436 against righties this year.

Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?

RHP Merrill Kelly has been getting squared up by righties — .456 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Wade Meckler (LAA), Nolan Schanuel (LAA), and Zach Neto (LAA). RHP Edward Cabrera has been getting squared up by righties — .436 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Hunter Goodman (COL), Jake McCarthy (COL), and TJ Rumfield (COL). RHP Zebby Matthews has been getting squared up by righties — .429 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Josh Jung (TEX), Joc Pederson (TEX), and Wyatt Langford (TEX). RHP Brady Singer has been getting squared up by righties — .428 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Juan Soto (NYM), Jared Young (NYM), and Carson Benge (NYM).

How is the total bases matchup score calculated?

It's his bases-per-trip rate against that hand, recent form weighted heaviest, over a two-year baseline. Because this counts extra-base damage, slug matters as much as contact. Then the bullpen, order spot, and the yard. 0–100 across the slate.

What does TB/PA mean?

Total bases is 1 for a single, 2 for a double, 3 for a triple, 4 for a homer — so it rewards power, not just contact. Per plate appearance, around .37 is league average; .50+ is big-time slug. It's the cleanest power matchup we run: both the bat's slug and the arm's slug-against are real.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better. Total bases rewards the guys who do damage rather than just make contact, so this board leans slugger where the hits board leans average. It ranks today's spots, not the odds of any particular number.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a total base.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Total bases blends contact and power, so the platoon gap cuts twice: the opposite hand means both more balls in play and more of them driven. A hitter with a big split can swing a full base per game between the two matchups.

What are park factors?

Every extra foot of outfield is a base. Gaps and altitude turn singles into doubles and doubles into triples, while a small park trades the same batted ball for a home run. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a total base in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for total bases props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ total base" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against the box score. Total bases is one of the steadier props we publish — more ways to clear the line means less variance — and the top of the board beats the slate consistently. Every past date is auditable.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB total bases matchups — Tuesday, June 16, 2026

Every hitter on the Tuesday, June 16, 2026 slate — ranked by total-base upside — the best power and extra-base spots. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Tuesday, June 16, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 1/5 (20%) on our total-bases over/under, against 54% on the season.

Top 5

1/520%

season 54%

Top 10

4/1040%

season 53%

Full slate

123/26846%

season 51%

Top call Pete Crow-Armstrong came through. Alec Burleson didn't.

Each hitter below carries a 0–100 matchup score — a read on the spot in front of him, not a ranking of how good he is, so a star in a brutal matchup can sit below an average hitter in a soft one. Confidence next to it is coverage: how much real data backs the number. Every call here was graded against the box score — wins and misses both, with the record on this page. How this board is built →

Final · 2–8

MIAaway

PHIhomeTop matchup81 Final · 4–6

KCaway

WSHhomeTop matchup93 Final · 6–1

TORaway

BOShomeTop matchup69 Final · 2–12

CWSaway

NYYhomeTop matchup72 Final · 3–5

NYMaway

CINhomeTop matchup83 Final · 1–2

CLEaway

MILhomeTop matchup91 Final · 2–3

SDaway

STLhomeTop matchup100 Final · 5–2

COLaway

CHChomeTop matchup98 Final · 12–2

MINaway

TEXhomeTop matchup81 Final · 2–4

DETaway

HOUhomeTop matchup78 Final · 6–5

PITaway

ATHhomeTop matchup92 Final · 1–3

BALaway

SEAhomeTop matchup80 Final · 7–0

LAAaway

AZhomeTop matchup59 Final · 0–1

TBaway

LADhomeTop matchup67 Final · 7–2

SFaway

ATLhomeTop matchup76

Not starting56 not in the official lineup — moved to the bottom

PosSort

#Hitter · Matchup · 326 shownScore

158 with a TBLive count — updates as games play

1
Bryan ReynoldsLF
PIT@ATH· 4-for-5
10TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #132
2
Trevor LarnachLF
MIN@TEX· 4-for-6
7TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #83
T2
Zach NetoSS
LAA@AZ· 2-for-5
7TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #110
4
Kody Clemens1B
MIN@TEX· 2-for-4
6TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #10
T4
Zack Gelof3B
ATHvsPIT· 3-for-3
6TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #108
T4
Mike TroutCF
LAA@AZ· 2-for-5
6TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #164
T4
Andrés GiménezSS
TOR@BOS· 2-for-4
6TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #247
T4
Nasim Nuñez2B
WSHvsKC· 2-for-2
6TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #248
T4
Davis SchneiderLF
TOR@BOS· 2-for-4
6TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #250
10
Brice Turang2B
MILvsCLE· 2-for-3
5TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #59
T10
George SpringerDH
TOR@BOS· 2-for-3
5TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #66
T10
Paul Goldschmidt1B
NYYvsCWS· 2-for-5
5TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #67
T10
Esteury RuizRF
MIA@PHI· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #107
T10
José CaballeroSS
NYYvsCWS· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #127
T10
Garrett MitchellCF
MILvsCLE· 2-for-3
5TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #128
T10
Jarren DuranLF
BOSvsTOR· 2-for-5
5TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #135
T10
Sal Stewart1B
CINvsNYM· 2-for-3
5TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #143
T10
Alec Bohm3B
PHIvsMIA· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #176
T10
Alex JacksonC
MIN@TEX· 3-for-5
5TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #258
20
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF
CHCvsCOL· 1-for-5
4TBFinal
Proj 2.1 TB, #2
T20
Brandon Lowe2B
PIT@ATH· 1-for-5
4TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #16
T20
Drake BaldwinC
ATLvsSF· 1-for-5
4TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #18
T20
Ben RiceDH
NYYvsCWS· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #19
T20
TJ Rumfield1B
COL@CHC· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #25
T20
Shohei OhtaniTWP
LADvsTB· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #30
T20
Brandon MarshLF
PHIvsMIA· 1-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #34
T20
Andrew BenintendiDH
CWS@NYY· 1-for-2
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #60
T20
Lane ThomasLF
KC@WSH· 1-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #70
T20
Jung Hoo LeeRF
SF@ATL· 1-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #72
T20
Luis Arraez2B
SF@ATL· 3-for-5
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #75
T20
Ryan O'HearnRF
PIT@ATH· 3-for-5
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #77
T20
Rafael Devers1B
SF@ATL· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #92
T20
Kyle SchwarberDH
PHIvsMIA· 1-for-2
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #97
T20
Curtis Mead3B
WSHvsKC· 1-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #115
T20
Spencer JonesRF
NYYvsCWS· 1-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #162
T20
Willy AdamesSS
SF@ATL· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #180
T20
Logan O'HoppeC
LAA@AZ· 3-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #203
T20
Spencer Steer1B
CINvsNYM· 1-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #223
39
Jake McCarthyLF
COL@CHC· 3-for-5
3TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #14
T39
Bobby Witt Jr.SS
KC@WSH· 3-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #20
T39
Seiya SuzukiRF
CHCvsCOL· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #22
T39
JJ Wetherholt2B
STLvsSD· 3-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #55
T39
Jeremy PeñaSS
HOUvsDET· 2-for-5
3TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #68
T39
Josh BellDH
MIN@TEX· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #74
T39
Ceddanne RafaelaCF
BOSvsTOR· 2-for-5
3TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #82
T39
Cody BellingerLF
NYYvsCWS· 3-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #88
T39
Brandon NimmoRF
TEXvsMIN· 2-for-3
3TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #90
T39
Brooks Lee3B
MIN@TEX· 2-for-5
3TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #111
T39
Miguel AmayaC
CHCvsCOL· 2-for-3
3TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #154
T39
Bryson Stott2B
PHIvsMIA· 1-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #167
T39
Nick Loftin3B
KC@WSH· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #174
T39
Donovan Walton2B
LAA@AZ· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #182
T39
Hao-Yu Lee2B
DET@HOU· 2-for-3
3TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #211
T39
Drew MillasC
WSHvsKC· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #215
T39
Anthony VolpeSS
NYYvsCWS· 3-for-5
3TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #240
T39
Luke Keaschall2B
MIN@TEX· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #263
T39
J.C. EscarraC
NYYvsCWS· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #269
58
Luis García Jr.1B
WSHvsKC· 2-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 2.0 TB, #6
T58
Otto LopezSS
MIA@PHI· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #9
T58
Bryce EldridgeDH
SF@ATL· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #26
T58
Willi Castro2B
COL@CHC· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #33
T58
Bo Bichette3B
NYM@CIN· 2-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #50
T58
Freddie Freeman1B
LADvsTB· 2-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #85
T58
Tyler CallihanLF
PIT@ATH· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #93
T58
Rhys Hoskins1B
CLE@MIL· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #94
T58
Jackson MerrillCF
SD@STL· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #119
T58
Taylor WardDH
BAL@SEA· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #133
T58
Elias DíazC
TEXvsMIN· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #136
T58
Riley GreeneLF
DET@HOU· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #140
T58
Casey SchmittLF
SF@ATL· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #160
T58
Lawrence ButlerRF
ATHvsPIT· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #166
T58
Blaze Jordan3B
STLvsSD· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #170
T58
Gabriel Arias3B
CLE@MIL· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #171
T58
Austin Riley3B
ATLvsSF· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #177
T58
Jo AdellRF
LAA@AZ· 1-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #178
T58
Leo Jiménez3B
MIA@PHI· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #179
T58
Isaac Paredes3B
HOUvsDET· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #194
T58
Edwin Arroyo2B
CINvsNYM· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #198
T58
Denzer Guzman3B
LAA@AZ· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #217
T58
Raynel Delgado2B
HOUvsDET· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #235
T58
Connor WongC
BOSvsTOR· 2-for-2
2TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #255
T58
Alika WilliamsSS
ATHvsPIT· 1-for-2
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB
83
Alec Burleson1B
STLvsSD· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 2.1 TB, #1
T83
James WoodRF
WSHvsKC· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 2.0 TB, #3
T83
Nick Kurtz1B
ATHvsPIT· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 2.0 TB, #4
T83
Dominic CanzoneDH
SEAvsBAL· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #11
T83
Byron BuxtonCF
MIN@TEX· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #12
T83
Matt Olson1B
ATLvsSF· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #15
T83
Michael Harris IICF
ATLvsSF· 1-for-1
1TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #17
T83
Juan SotoLF
NYM@CIN· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #21
T83
CJ AbramsSS
WSHvsKC· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #29
T83
Yordan AlvarezDH
HOUvsDET· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #31
T83
Ian HappLF
CHCvsCOL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #38
T83
Yandy DíazDH
TB@LAD· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #43
T83
J.P. CrawfordSS
SEAvsBAL· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #47
T83
Sam AntonacciLF
CWS@NYY· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #51
T83
Wade MecklerLF
LAA@AZ· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #53
T83
Nolan Schanuel1B
LAA@AZ· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #56
T83
Joc PedersonDH
TEXvsMIN· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #58
T83
Ketel Marte2B
AZvsLAA· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #61
T83
Shea LangeliersC
ATHvsPIT· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #62
T83
Adley RutschmanC
BAL@SEA· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #63
T83
Mauricio DubónLF
ATLvsSF· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #69
T83
Javier Sanoja3B
MIA@PHI· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #71
T83
Corbin CarrollRF
AZvsLAA· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #78
T83
Andy PagesCF
LADvsTB· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #80
T83
Wyatt LangfordLF
TEXvsMIN· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #84
T83
Fernando Tatis Jr.RF
SD@STL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #91
T83
Colt EmersonSS
SEAvsBAL· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #96
T83
Blake DunnCF
CINvsNYM· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #100
T83
Jacob WilsonSS
ATHvsPIT· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #101
T83
Cal RaleighC
SEAvsBAL· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #109
T83
Samuel BasalloC
BAL@SEA· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #114
T83
Tristan PetersCF
CWS@NYY· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #117
T83
Jake Burger1B
TEXvsMIN· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #123
T83
Dominic SmithDH
ATLvsSF· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #124
T83
Christian Walker1B
HOUvsDET· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #125
T83
Samad TaylorLF
SD@STL· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #130
T83
Lars NootbaarLF
STLvsSD· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #134
T83
Austin SlaterRF
TB@LAD· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #137
T83
Ryan WardLF
LADvsTB· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #138
T83
Marcus Semien2B
NYM@CIN· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #139
T83
Endy RodríguezC
PIT@ATH· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #141
T83
Matt ShawRF
CHCvsCOL· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #145
T83
Jacob YoungCF
WSHvsKC· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #146
T83
Masataka YoshidaDH
BOSvsTOR· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #148
T83
Jake MangumCF
PIT@ATH· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #151
T83
Austin HedgesC
CLE@MIL· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #153
T83
Salvador PerezDH
KC@WSH· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #156
T83
Starling MarteRF
KC@WSH· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #159
T83
Kevin McGonigleSS
DET@HOU· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #161
T83
Royce Lewis1B
MIN@TEX· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #165
T83
Yainer DiazC
HOUvsDET· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #183
T83
Nathan ChurchCF
STLvsSD· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #185
T83
Masyn WinnSS
STLvsSD· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #188
T83
Geraldo PerdomoSS
AZvsLAA· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #189
T83
Julio RodríguezCF
SEAvsBAL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #193
T83
Jazz Chisholm Jr.2B
NYYvsCWS· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #195
T83
Francisco AlvarezC
NYM@CIN· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #197
T83
Liam HicksC
MIA@PHI· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #199
T83
Cam SmithRF
HOUvsDET· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #206
T83
Tyler TolbertSS
KC@WSH· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #212
T83
Tyler StephensonC
CINvsNYM· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #213
T83
Ty France1B
SD@STL· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #214
T83
Kyle TuckerRF
LADvsTB· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #219
T83
Ryan McMahon3B
NYYvsCWS· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #222
T83
Edouard Julien2B
COL@CHC· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #224
T83
Victor RoblesRF
SEAvsBAL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #225
T83
Nathan LukesRF
TOR@BOS· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #227
T83
Mike YastrzemskiLF
ATLvsSF· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #232
T83
Isiah Kiner-Falefa2B
BOSvsTOR· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #233
T83
Josh Smith2B
TEXvsMIN· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #236
T83
Alejandro OsunaLF
TEXvsMIN· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #237
T83
Jakob MarseeCF
MIA@PHI· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #253
T83
Edmundo SosaLF
PHIvsMIA· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #257
T83
Adrian Del CastilloDH
AZvsLAA· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #266
T83
Taylor WallsSS
TB@LAD· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #270
T83
Isaac CollinsLF
KC@WSH· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB

Best MLB Total Bases Matchups — Tuesday, June 16, 2026

Alec Burleson (STL) is the top total bases matchup on the Tuesday, June 16, 2026 board at 100, with Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) and James Wood (WSH) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by total-base upside — the best power and extra-base spots — raw power, the arm and bullpen they face, batting order, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top total bases spot: Alec Burleson

Alec Burleson (STL) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Michael King. The lefty is racking up bases at .533 TB/PA against righties this year — and .921 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a total base in about 55% of his trips. And Michael King has been getting squared up by righties lately — .478 total bases per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's a fine .286 in 7 career PA against Michael King. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.

The rest of the top of the board

Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) (98) vs RHP Ryan Feltner: an excellent bat at .490 into an arm tough on the same side (.200), hot bat.
James Wood (WSH) (93) vs RHP Michael Wacha: a strong bat at .445 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.611), hot bat.
Nick Kurtz (ATH) (92) vs RHP Mitch Keller: a strong bat at .458 into an arm tough on the same side (.294), hot bat.
Jackson Chourio (MIL) (91) vs RHP Slade Cecconi: an excellent bat at .482 into an arm tough on the same side (.250), hot bat.
Luis García Jr. (WSH) (89) vs RHP Michael Wacha: a strong bat at .450 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.611).
Hunter Goodman (COL) (88) vs RHP Edward Cabrera: an excellent bat at .488 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.857).
JJ Bleday (CIN) (83) vs RHP Kodai Senga: a strong bat at .459 into an arm with little track record against the same side.

Arms giving up extra bases today

RHP Merrill Kelly has been getting squared up by righties — .456 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Wade Meckler (LAA), Nolan Schanuel (LAA), and Zach Neto (LAA).
RHP Edward Cabrera has been getting squared up by righties — .436 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Hunter Goodman (COL), Jake McCarthy (COL), and TJ Rumfield (COL).
RHP Zebby Matthews has been getting squared up by righties — .429 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Josh Jung (TEX), Joc Pederson (TEX), and Wyatt Langford (TEX).
RHP Brady Singer has been getting squared up by righties — .428 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Juan Soto (NYM), Jared Young (NYM), and Carson Benge (NYM).

Platoon edges to target

Alec Burleson (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .533 against righties this year.
Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .432 against righties this year.
James Wood (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .474 against righties this year.
Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .431 against righties this year.
Luis García Jr. (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .436 against righties this year.

How it played out

7 of the top 10 total bases matchups landed at least one total base. Top play Alec Burleson finished with 1 total base. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these total bases matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's total bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

What the total bases board is

The Total Bases board projects how many bases a hitter racks up vs the posted total-bases line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

His extra-base pop vs this arm.
The park.
Recent contact quality.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Total bases grades right at break-even even when we tune it to the hilt — the book prices the marginal leans efficiently. Transparency board.

How to use it

See who the model projects for extra-base damage; no systematic edge to bet.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best total bases matchup today (Tuesday, June 16, 2026)?: Alec Burleson (STL) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Michael King. An excellent bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB total bases matchups today (Tuesday, June 16, 2026)?: The top total bases matchups on Tuesday, June 16, 2026: Alec Burleson (100), Pete Crow-Armstrong (98), James Wood (93), Nick Kurtz (92), Jackson Chourio (91). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by total bases upside.
Did the top total bases matchup get a total base on Tuesday, June 16, 2026?: Yes — Alec Burleson got 1 total base.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Alec Burleson (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .533 against righties this year. Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .432 against righties this year. James Wood (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .474 against righties this year. Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .431 against righties this year. Luis García Jr. (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .436 against righties this year.
Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?: RHP Merrill Kelly has been getting squared up by righties — .456 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Wade Meckler (LAA), Nolan Schanuel (LAA), and Zach Neto (LAA). RHP Edward Cabrera has been getting squared up by righties — .436 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Hunter Goodman (COL), Jake McCarthy (COL), and TJ Rumfield (COL). RHP Zebby Matthews has been getting squared up by righties — .429 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Josh Jung (TEX), Joc Pederson (TEX), and Wyatt Langford (TEX). RHP Brady Singer has been getting squared up by righties — .428 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Juan Soto (NYM), Jared Young (NYM), and Carson Benge (NYM).
How is the total bases matchup score calculated?: It's his bases-per-trip rate against that hand, recent form weighted heaviest, over a two-year baseline. Because this counts extra-base damage, slug matters as much as contact. Then the bullpen, order spot, and the yard. 0–100 across the slate.
What does TB/PA mean?: Total bases is 1 for a single, 2 for a double, 3 for a triple, 4 for a homer — so it rewards power, not just contact. Per plate appearance, around .37 is league average; .50+ is big-time slug. It's the cleanest power matchup we run: both the bat's slug and the arm's slug-against are real.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better. Total bases rewards the guys who do damage rather than just make contact, so this board leans slugger where the hits board leans average. It ranks today's spots, not the odds of any particular number.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a total base.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Total bases blends contact and power, so the platoon gap cuts twice: the opposite hand means both more balls in play and more of them driven. A hitter with a big split can swing a full base per game between the two matchups.
What are park factors?: Every extra foot of outfield is a base. Gaps and altitude turn singles into doubles and doubles into triples, while a small park trades the same batted ball for a home run. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a total base in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for total bases props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ total base" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against the box score. Total bases is one of the steadier props we publish — more ways to clear the line means less variance — and the top of the board beats the slate consistently. Every past date is auditable.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.