Best MLB Total Bases Matchups — Saturday, June 20, 2026
Top total bases spot: Brandon Lowe
Brandon Lowe (PIT) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Tomoyuki Sugano. The lefty is racking up bases at .505 TB/PA against righties this year — and .462 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a total base in about 44% of his trips. And Tomoyuki Sugano has been giving up bases to righties lately — .379 total bases per batter faced. The bullpen behind him hasn't been any better to that side, so there's no relief late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Tomoyuki Sugano too — .667 across 3 career trips. It all sets up in a hitter's park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Byron Buxton (MIN) (100) vs RHP Zac Gallen: an excellent bat at .505 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.560).
- Kody Clemens (MIN) (95) vs RHP Zac Gallen: an excellent bat at .513 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.423).
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) (87) vs RHP Walbert Ureña: an excellent bat at .481 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.550).
- Spencer Horwitz (PIT) (86) vs RHP Tomoyuki Sugano: a solid bat at .374 into an arm giving up bases to the same side (.379), hitter's park.
- Bryan Reynolds (PIT) (81) vs RHP Tomoyuki Sugano: a solid bat at .393 into an arm giving up bases to the same side (.379), hitter's park, hot bat.
- Jackson Chourio (MIL) (79) vs LHP Chris Sale: an excellent bat at .489 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.419).
- Andrew Benintendi (CWS) (78) vs RHP Troy Melton: a strong bat at .430 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.813).
Arms giving up extra bases today
- RHP Trevor McDonald has been getting squared up by righties — .453 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Kyle Stowers (MIA), Jakob Marsee (MIA), and Xavier Edwards (MIA).
- LHP Joey Cantillo has been getting squared up by lefties — .430 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Jeremy Peña (HOU), Yordan Alvarez (HOU), and Christian Walker (HOU).
- LHP Patrick Corbin has been getting squared up by lefties — .427 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Seiya Suzuki (CHC), Nico Hoerner (CHC), and Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC).
- RHP Taj Bradley has been getting squared up by righties — .424 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Corbin Carroll (AZ), Ketel Marte (AZ), and Geraldo Perdomo (AZ).
Platoon edges to target
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .505 against righties this year.
- Kody Clemens (MIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .460 against righties this year.
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .457 against righties this year.
- Spencer Horwitz (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .399 against righties this year.
- Bryan Reynolds (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .341 against righties this year.
Best parks for total bases today
Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% extra-base park). Top bat there: Brandon Lowe (PIT) at 100.
How it played out
8 of the top 10 total bases matchups landed at least one total base. Top play Brandon Lowe finished with 3 total bases. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these total bases matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's total bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.