Best MLB Total Bases Matchups — Sunday, June 21, 2026
Top total bases spot: Kyle Schwarber
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) tops the board at 100, facing LHP David Peterson. The lefty is racking up bases at .488 TB/PA against lefties this year — and .367 over the last two weeks, a solid bat that turns into a total base in about 41% of his trips. And David Peterson has been getting squared up by lefties lately — .455 total bases per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .111 in 27 career PA against David Peterson, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (100) vs RHP Brandon Young: a strong bat at .436 into an arm tough on the same side (.227).
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) (100) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: a strong bat at .444 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.571), hitter's park, hot bat.
- Zach Neto (LAA) (97) vs RHP Jack Perkins: a solid bat at .388 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.600).
- Pete Alonso (BAL) (94) vs RHP Emmet Sheehan: a strong bat at .429 into an arm tough on the same side (.250).
- Andy Pages (LAD) (91) vs RHP Brandon Young: a solid bat at .414 into an arm tough on the same side (.219).
- Juan Soto (NYM) (89) vs RHP Zack Wheeler: a strong bat at .450 into an arm mostly containing the same side (.324).
- Wade Meckler (LAA) (89) vs RHP Jack Perkins: a solid bat at .380 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.484).
Arms giving up extra bases today
- RHP Jared Jones has been getting squared up by righties — .507 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: TJ Rumfield (COL), Jake McCarthy (COL), and Willi Castro (COL).
- RHP Michael Lorenzen has been getting squared up by righties — .486 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Brandon Lowe (PIT), Spencer Horwitz (PIT), and Bryan Reynolds (PIT).
- RHP Kai-Wei Teng has been getting squared up by righties — .461 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Travis Bazzana (CLE), Kyle Manzardo (CLE), and Brayan Rocchio (CLE).
- RHP Jack Perkins has been getting squared up by righties — .424 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Zach Neto (LAA), Wade Meckler (LAA), and Jo Adell (LAA).
Platoon edges to target
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .428 against righties this year.
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .505 against righties this year.
- Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .524 against righties this year.
- Wade Meckler (LAA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .464 against righties this year.
- TJ Rumfield (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .444 against righties this year.
Best parks for total bases today
Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% extra-base park). Top bat there: Brandon Lowe (PIT) at 100.
How it played out
8 of the top 10 total bases matchups landed at least one total base. Top play Kyle Schwarber finished with 4 total bases. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these total bases matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's total bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.