Who has the best total bases matchup today (Sunday, June 21, 2026)?

Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — top of the board at 100, facing LHP David Peterson. A solid bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB total bases matchups today (Sunday, June 21, 2026)?

The top total bases matchups on Sunday, June 21, 2026: Kyle Schwarber (100), Shohei Ohtani (100), Brandon Lowe (100), Zach Neto (97), Pete Alonso (94). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by total bases upside.

Did the top total bases matchup get a total base on Sunday, June 21, 2026?

Yes — Kyle Schwarber got 4 total bases.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .428 against righties this year. Brandon Lowe (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .505 against righties this year. Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .524 against righties this year. Wade Meckler (LAA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .464 against righties this year. TJ Rumfield (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .444 against righties this year.

Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?

RHP Jared Jones has been getting squared up by righties — .507 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: TJ Rumfield (COL), Jake McCarthy (COL), and Willi Castro (COL). RHP Michael Lorenzen has been getting squared up by righties — .486 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Brandon Lowe (PIT), Spencer Horwitz (PIT), and Bryan Reynolds (PIT). RHP Kai-Wei Teng has been getting squared up by righties — .461 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Travis Bazzana (CLE), Kyle Manzardo (CLE), and Brayan Rocchio (CLE). RHP Jack Perkins has been getting squared up by righties — .424 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Zach Neto (LAA), Wade Meckler (LAA), and Jo Adell (LAA).

How is the total bases matchup score calculated?

It's his bases-per-trip rate against that hand, recent form weighted heaviest, over a two-year baseline. Because this counts extra-base damage, slug matters as much as contact. Then the bullpen, order spot, and the yard. 0–100 across the slate.

What does TB/PA mean?

Total bases is 1 for a single, 2 for a double, 3 for a triple, 4 for a homer — so it rewards power, not just contact. Per plate appearance, around .37 is league average; .50+ is big-time slug. It's the cleanest power matchup we run: both the bat's slug and the arm's slug-against are real.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better. Total bases rewards the guys who do damage rather than just make contact, so this board leans slugger where the hits board leans average. It ranks today's spots, not the odds of any particular number.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a total base.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Total bases blends contact and power, so the platoon gap cuts twice: the opposite hand means both more balls in play and more of them driven. A hitter with a big split can swing a full base per game between the two matchups.

What are park factors?

Every extra foot of outfield is a base. Gaps and altitude turn singles into doubles and doubles into triples, while a small park trades the same batted ball for a home run. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a total base in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for total bases props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ total base" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against the box score. Total bases is one of the steadier props we publish — more ways to clear the line means less variance — and the top of the board beats the slate consistently. Every past date is auditable.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB total bases matchups — Sunday, June 21, 2026

Every hitter on the Sunday, June 21, 2026 slate — ranked by total-base upside — the best power and extra-base spots. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Sunday, June 21, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 3/5 (60%) on our total-bases over/under, against 50% on the season.

Top 5

3/560%

season 50%

Top 10

5/1050%

season 50%

Full slate

118/24748%

season 51%

Top call Kyle Schwarber came through. Shohei Ohtani didn't.

Each hitter below carries a 0–100 matchup score — a read on the spot in front of him, not a ranking of how good he is, so a star in a brutal matchup can sit below an average hitter in a soft one. Confidence next to it is coverage: how much real data backs the number. Every call here was graded against the box score — wins and misses both, with the record on this page. How this board is built →

Final · 9–4

MILaway

ATLhomeTop matchup75 Final · 4–1

CINaway

NYYhomeTop matchup58 Final · 3–4

WSHaway

TBhomeTop matchup63 Final · 1–2

SFaway

MIAhomeTop matchup62 Final · 4–5

CWSaway

DEThomeTop matchup62 Final · 1–2

CLEaway

HOUhomeTop matchup75 Final · 12–10

STLaway

KChomeTop matchup80 Final · 3–4

SDaway

TEXhomeTop matchup62 Final · 8–6

PITaway

COLhomeTop matchup100 Final · 4–2

MINaway

AZhomeTop matchup78 Final · 9–7

LAAaway

ATHhomeTop matchup97 Final · 12–1

BALaway

LADhomeTop matchup100 Final · 1–3

BOSaway

SEAhomeTop matchup87 Final · 2–6

NYMaway

PHIhomeTop matchup100

Not starting64 not in the official lineup — moved to the bottom

PosSort

#Hitter · Matchup · 314 shownScore

163 with a TBLive count — updates as games play

1
JJ Wetherholt2B
STL@KC· 3-for-5
9TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #94
2
Jac CaglianoneRF
KCvsSTL· 2-for-3
8TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #105
3
Bryce Harper1B
PHIvsNYM· 3-for-4
7TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #72
T3
Blaze Alexander3B
BAL@LAD· 3-for-5
7TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #106
T3
William ContrerasC
MIL@ATL· 4-for-5
7TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #140
6
Bryan ReynoldsLF
PIT@COL· 2-for-5
6TBFinal
Proj 2.1 TB, #17
T6
Colton CowserCF
BAL@LAD· 3-for-5
6TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #78
T6
Jonny DeLucaRF
TBvsWSH· 2-for-4
6TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #98
T6
CJ AbramsSS
WSH@TB· 2-for-4
6TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #120
T6
Iván HerreraDH
STL@KC· 3-for-5
6TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #138
11
Pete Alonso1B
BAL@LAD· 2-for-3
5TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #5
T11
Alec Burleson1B
STL@KC· 3-for-5
5TBFinal
Proj 2.0 TB, #21
T11
Nick Kurtz1B
ATHvsLAA· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #30
T11
Denzer Guzman3B
LAA@ATH· 2-for-3
5TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #46
T11
Taylor WardDH
BAL@LAD· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #47
T11
Wyatt LangfordLF
TEXvsSD· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #49
T11
Dillon DinglerC
DETvsCWS· 2-for-5
5TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #50
T11
Ben RiceDH
NYYvsCIN· 2-for-3
5TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #61
T11
Carter JensenC
KCvsSTL· 2-for-3
5TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #63
T11
Nick Gonzales3B
PIT@COL· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #125
T11
Masyn WinnSS
STL@KC· 2-for-5
5TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #223
22
Kyle SchwarberDH
PHIvsNYM· 1-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #1
T22
Zach NetoSS
LAA@ATH· 1-for-5
4TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #4
T22
TJ Rumfield1B
COLvsPIT· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 2.1 TB, #9
T22
Yordan AlvarezDH
HOUvsCLE· 1-for-2
4TBFinal
Proj 2.0 TB, #28
T22
Donovan Walton2B
LAA@ATH· 1-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #38
T22
Carson BengeRF
NYM@PHI· 1-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #55
T22
Trevor LarnachLF
MIN@AZ· 2-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #57
T22
Mauricio DubónLF
ATLvsMIL· 3-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #81
T22
Dominic CanzoneDH
SEAvsBOS· 1-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #84
T22
Jake MangumCF
PIT@COL· 3-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #89
T22
Kyle Stowers1B
MIAvsSF· 1-for-2
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #107
T22
Ryan ViladeRF
TBvsWSH· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #144
T22
Nick Loftin3B
KCvsSTL· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #198
T22
Nate EatonOF
BOS@SEA· 1-for-2
4TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #210
T22
Tyler StephensonC
CIN@NYY· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #216
T22
Luisangel AcuñaSS
CWS@DET· 1-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #242
38
Gunnar HendersonSS
BAL@LAD· 2-for-5
3TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #20
T38
Zack Gelof3B
ATHvsLAA· 2-for-5
3TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #33
T38
Ketel Marte2B
AZvsMIN· 2-for-5
3TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #87
T38
Yandy DíazDH
TBvsWSH· 2-for-3
3TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #95
T38
Isaac Paredes3B
HOUvsCLE· 3-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #111
T38
Michael Massey2B
KCvsSTL· 3-for-5
3TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #119
T38
Ryan KreidlerSS
MIN@AZ· 3-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #126
T38
Leody TaverasCF
BAL@LAD· 1-for-5
3TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #134
T38
Tristan PetersCF
CWS@DET· 2-for-3
3TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #141
T38
Lars NootbaarLF
STL@KC· 2-for-5
3TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #161
T38
Caleb Durbin3B
BOS@SEA· 2-for-3
3TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #172
T38
Noelvi MarteRF
CIN@NYY· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #174
T38
Sal FrelickRF
MIL@ATL· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #203
T38
David Hamilton3B
MIL@ATL· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #215
T38
Petey HalpinCF
CLE@HOU· 1-for-3
3TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #218
T38
Zach McKinstry2B
DETvsCWS· 2-for-2
3TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #229
54
Andy PagesCF
LADvsBAL· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #6
T54
Spencer Horwitz1B
PIT@COL· 2-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 2.1 TB, #12
T54
Jake McCarthyLF
COLvsPIT· 2-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 2.1 TB, #16
T54
Byron BuxtonCF
MIN@AZ· 2-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 2.0 TB, #26
T54
Luis Arraez2B
SF@MIA· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #51
T54
Nolan Schanuel1B
LAA@ATH· 2-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #58
T54
Jackson MerrillCF
SD@TEX· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #67
T54
Michael Harris IICF
ATLvsMIL· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #68
T54
Casey SchmittLF
SF@MIA· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #80
T54
Jake Burger1B
TEXvsSD· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #83
T54
A.J. EwingCF
NYM@PHI· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #88
T54
Jake Bauers1B
MIL@ATL· 2-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #90
T54
Jeremiah Jackson2B
BAL@LAD· 1-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #92
T54
Josh Jung3B
TEXvsSD· 2-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #99
T54
Riley GreeneLF
DETvsCWS· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #101
T54
Jeremy PeñaSS
HOUvsCLE· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #114
T54
Jose SiriCF
LAA@ATH· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #117
T54
Spencer Torkelson1B
DETvsCWS· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #124
T54
Blake DunnCF
CIN@NYY· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #130
T54
Otto LopezSS
MIAvsSF· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #145
T54
Braden MontgomeryRF
CWS@DET· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #153
T54
Kyle Karros3B
COLvsPIT· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #173
T54
Ben Williamson2B
TBvsWSH· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #176
T54
Dylan CrewsRF
WSH@TB· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #180
T54
Nathan ChurchCF
STL@KC· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #183
T54
Alex JacksonC
MIN@AZ· 2-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #190
T54
Sung-Mun Song2B
SD@TEX· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #202
T54
Spencer Steer1B
CIN@NYY· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #205
T54
Nicky Lopez2B
TEXvsSD· 2-for-2
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #211
T54
Xander BogaertsSS
SD@TEX· 2-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #214
T54
Jared TrioloSS
PIT@COL· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #228
T54
Nasim Nuñez2B
WSH@TB· 2-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #235
T54
Taylor WallsSS
TBvsWSH· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.2 TB, #250
T54
Hao-Yu Lee2B
DETvsCWS· 1-for-2
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB
88
Shohei OhtaniTWP
LADvsBAL· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #2
T88
Brandon Lowe2B
PIT@COL· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 2.2 TB, #3
T88
Juan SotoLF
NYM@PHI· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #7
T88
Tyler SoderstromLF
ATHvsLAA· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #13
T88
Freddie Freeman1B
LADvsBAL· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #15
T88
Willi Castro2B
COLvsPIT· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 2.0 TB, #18
T88
J.P. CrawfordSS
SEAvsBOS· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #19
T88
Ceddanne RafaelaCF
BOS@SEA· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #25
T88
Jackson ChourioLF
MIL@ATL· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 2.0 TB, #29
T88
Julio RodríguezCF
SEAvsBOS· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #31
T88
Travis Bazzana2B
CLE@HOU· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #32
T88
Samuel BasalloC
BAL@LAD· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #34
T88
Edmundo SosaLF
PHIvsNYM· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #41
T88
Trea TurnerSS
PHIvsNYM· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #42
T88
Tyler CallihanLF
PIT@COL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #43
T88
Alec Bohm3B
PHIvsNYM· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #44
T88
Endy RodríguezC
PIT@COL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #45
T88
Mookie BettsSS
LADvsBAL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #52
T88
Max Muncy3B
LADvsBAL· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #53
T88
Brice Turang2B
MIL@ATL· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #54
T88
Cole CarriggCF
COLvsPIT· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #60
T88
Kyle Manzardo1B
CLE@HOU· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #64
T88
Ozzie Albies2B
ATLvsMIL· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #66
T88
Logan O'HoppeC
LAA@ATH· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #69
T88
Corbin CarrollRF
AZvsMIN· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #71
T88
Samad TaylorLF
SD@TEX· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #73
T88
Christian Walker1B
HOUvsCLE· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #74
T88
Jared Young1B
NYM@PHI· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #76
T88
Gabriel MorenoC
AZvsMIN· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #77
T88
Kevin McGonigleSS
DETvsCWS· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #85
T88
Brayan RocchioSS
CLE@HOU· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #93
T88
Gavin Sheets1B
SD@TEX· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #100
T88
Colt Keith3B
DETvsCWS· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #104
T88
Rob RefsnyderDH
SEAvsBOS· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #109
T88
Geraldo PerdomoSS
AZvsMIN· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #112
T88
Daylen LileLF
WSH@TB· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #113
T88
Jonathan Aranda1B
TBvsWSH· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #115
T88
Mickey GasperC
BOS@SEA· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #116
T88
Manny Machado3B
SD@TEX· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #118
T88
Edouard Julien2B
COLvsPIT· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #122
T88
Cody BellingerLF
NYYvsCIN· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #129
T88
Austin Riley3B
ATLvsMIL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #133
T88
Henry BolteCF
ATHvsLAA· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #135
T88
Derek HillCF
PHIvsNYM· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #139
T88
Christian Moore2B
LAA@ATH· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #142
T88
Brandon NimmoRF
TEXvsSD· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #147
T88
Jasson DomínguezRF
NYYvsCIN· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #149
T88
Royce Lewis1B
MIN@AZ· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #154
T88
Bryson Stott2B
PHIvsNYM· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #155
T88
Cole Young2B
SEAvsBOS· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #156
T88
Sal Stewart1B
CIN@NYY· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #157
T88
Tyler FreemanRF
COLvsPIT· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #159
T88
José CaballeroSS
NYYvsCIN· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #164
T88
Weston Wilson3B
SEAvsBOS· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #169
T88
Xavier Edwards2B
MIAvsSF· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #182
T88
Lane ThomasLF
KCvsSTL· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #184
T88
Cooper PrattSS
MIL@ATL· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #186
T88
Salvador PerezDH
KCvsSTL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #188
T88
Kameron MisnerCF
KCvsSTL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #193
T88
Chandler SimpsonLF
TBvsWSH· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #194
T88
Raynel Delgado2B
HOUvsCLE· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #197
T88
Jimmy CrooksC
STL@KC· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #199
T88
Blaze Jordan3B
STL@KC· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #201
T88
Nolan Arenado3B
AZvsMIN· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #207
T88
Jazz Chisholm Jr.2B
NYYvsCIN· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #217
T88
Drew GilbertCF
SF@MIA· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #219
T88
Ty France1B
SD@TEX· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #221
T88
Luis TorrensC
NYM@PHI· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #227
T88
Edgar QueroC
CWS@DET· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #234
T88
Esteury RuizRF
MIAvsSF· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #236
T88
Joey Meneses1B
ATHvsLAA· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #238
T88
Isaac CollinsLF
KCvsSTL· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.2 TB, #247
T88
Amed Rosario3B
NYYvsCIN· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB
T88
Josh BellDH
MIN@AZ· 1-for-1
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB
T88
Fernando Tatis Jr.RF
SD@TEX· 1-for-1
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB
T88
Matt VierlingCF
DETvsCWS· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB

Best MLB Total Bases Matchups — Sunday, June 21, 2026

Kyle Schwarber (PHI) is the top total bases matchup on the Sunday, June 21, 2026 board at 100, with Shohei Ohtani (LAD) and Brandon Lowe (PIT) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by total-base upside — the best power and extra-base spots — raw power, the arm and bullpen they face, batting order, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top total bases spot: Kyle Schwarber

Kyle Schwarber (PHI) tops the board at 100, facing LHP David Peterson. The lefty is racking up bases at .488 TB/PA against lefties this year — and .367 over the last two weeks, a solid bat that turns into a total base in about 41% of his trips. And David Peterson has been getting squared up by lefties lately — .455 total bases per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .111 in 27 career PA against David Peterson, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.

The rest of the top of the board

Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (100) vs RHP Brandon Young: a strong bat at .436 into an arm tough on the same side (.227).
Brandon Lowe (PIT) (100) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: a strong bat at .444 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.571), hitter's park, hot bat.
Zach Neto (LAA) (97) vs RHP Jack Perkins: a solid bat at .388 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.600).
Pete Alonso (BAL) (94) vs RHP Emmet Sheehan: a strong bat at .429 into an arm tough on the same side (.250).
Andy Pages (LAD) (91) vs RHP Brandon Young: a solid bat at .414 into an arm tough on the same side (.219).
Juan Soto (NYM) (89) vs RHP Zack Wheeler: a strong bat at .450 into an arm mostly containing the same side (.324).
Wade Meckler (LAA) (89) vs RHP Jack Perkins: a solid bat at .380 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.484).

Arms giving up extra bases today

RHP Jared Jones has been getting squared up by righties — .507 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: TJ Rumfield (COL), Jake McCarthy (COL), and Willi Castro (COL).
RHP Michael Lorenzen has been getting squared up by righties — .486 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Brandon Lowe (PIT), Spencer Horwitz (PIT), and Bryan Reynolds (PIT).
RHP Kai-Wei Teng has been getting squared up by righties — .461 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Travis Bazzana (CLE), Kyle Manzardo (CLE), and Brayan Rocchio (CLE).
RHP Jack Perkins has been getting squared up by righties — .424 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Zach Neto (LAA), Wade Meckler (LAA), and Jo Adell (LAA).

Platoon edges to target

Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .428 against righties this year.
Brandon Lowe (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .505 against righties this year.
Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .524 against righties this year.
Wade Meckler (LAA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .464 against righties this year.
TJ Rumfield (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .444 against righties this year.

Best parks for total bases today

Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% extra-base park). Top bat there: Brandon Lowe (PIT) at 100.

How it played out

8 of the top 10 total bases matchups landed at least one total base. Top play Kyle Schwarber finished with 4 total bases. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these total bases matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's total bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

What the total bases board is

The Total Bases board projects how many bases a hitter racks up vs the posted total-bases line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

His extra-base pop vs this arm.
The park.
Recent contact quality.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Total bases grades right at break-even even when we tune it to the hilt — the book prices the marginal leans efficiently. Transparency board.

How to use it

See who the model projects for extra-base damage; no systematic edge to bet.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best total bases matchup today (Sunday, June 21, 2026)?: Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — top of the board at 100, facing LHP David Peterson. A solid bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB total bases matchups today (Sunday, June 21, 2026)?: The top total bases matchups on Sunday, June 21, 2026: Kyle Schwarber (100), Shohei Ohtani (100), Brandon Lowe (100), Zach Neto (97), Pete Alonso (94). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by total bases upside.
Did the top total bases matchup get a total base on Sunday, June 21, 2026?: Yes — Kyle Schwarber got 4 total bases.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .428 against righties this year. Brandon Lowe (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .505 against righties this year. Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .524 against righties this year. Wade Meckler (LAA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .464 against righties this year. TJ Rumfield (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .444 against righties this year.
Which parks favor total bases today?: Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% extra-base park). Top bat there: Brandon Lowe (PIT) at 100.
Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?: RHP Jared Jones has been getting squared up by righties — .507 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: TJ Rumfield (COL), Jake McCarthy (COL), and Willi Castro (COL). RHP Michael Lorenzen has been getting squared up by righties — .486 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Brandon Lowe (PIT), Spencer Horwitz (PIT), and Bryan Reynolds (PIT). RHP Kai-Wei Teng has been getting squared up by righties — .461 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Travis Bazzana (CLE), Kyle Manzardo (CLE), and Brayan Rocchio (CLE). RHP Jack Perkins has been getting squared up by righties — .424 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Zach Neto (LAA), Wade Meckler (LAA), and Jo Adell (LAA).
How is the total bases matchup score calculated?: It's his bases-per-trip rate against that hand, recent form weighted heaviest, over a two-year baseline. Because this counts extra-base damage, slug matters as much as contact. Then the bullpen, order spot, and the yard. 0–100 across the slate.
What does TB/PA mean?: Total bases is 1 for a single, 2 for a double, 3 for a triple, 4 for a homer — so it rewards power, not just contact. Per plate appearance, around .37 is league average; .50+ is big-time slug. It's the cleanest power matchup we run: both the bat's slug and the arm's slug-against are real.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better. Total bases rewards the guys who do damage rather than just make contact, so this board leans slugger where the hits board leans average. It ranks today's spots, not the odds of any particular number.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a total base.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Total bases blends contact and power, so the platoon gap cuts twice: the opposite hand means both more balls in play and more of them driven. A hitter with a big split can swing a full base per game between the two matchups.
What are park factors?: Every extra foot of outfield is a base. Gaps and altitude turn singles into doubles and doubles into triples, while a small park trades the same batted ball for a home run. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a total base in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for total bases props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ total base" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against the box score. Total bases is one of the steadier props we publish — more ways to clear the line means less variance — and the top of the board beats the slate consistently. Every past date is auditable.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.