Who has the best total bases matchup today (Monday, June 22, 2026)?

Alec Burleson (STL) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Merrill Kelly. An excellent bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB total bases matchups today (Monday, June 22, 2026)?

The top total bases matchups on Monday, June 22, 2026: Alec Burleson (100), Zach Neto (100), Ceddanne Rafaela (100), Willson Contreras (94), Willi Castro (91). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by total bases upside.

Did the top total bases matchup get a total base on Monday, June 22, 2026?

Yes — Alec Burleson got 1 total base.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Alec Burleson (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .530 against righties this year. Willi Castro (COL) — righty bat vs LHP, .400 against lefties this year. Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .442 against righties this year. Donovan Walton (LAA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .531 against righties this year. Sam Antonacci (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .407 against righties this year.

Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?

RHP Kumar Rocker has been getting squared up by righties — .436 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Kyle Stowers (MIA), Heriberto Hernández (MIA), and Xavier Edwards (MIA). RHP Zebby Matthews has been vulnerable to righties — .417 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Shohei Ohtani (LAD), Andy Pages (LAD), and Freddie Freeman (LAD). LHP Sam Aldegheri has been vulnerable to lefties — .414 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Gunnar Henderson (BAL), Coby Mayo (BAL), and Taylor Ward (BAL). RHP Brady Singer has been vulnerable to righties — .394 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Jackson Chourio (MIL), Christian Yelich (MIL), and Garrett Mitchell (MIL).

How is the total bases matchup score calculated?

It's his bases-per-trip rate against that hand, recent form weighted heaviest, over a two-year baseline. Because this counts extra-base damage, slug matters as much as contact. Then the bullpen, order spot, and the yard. 0–100 across the slate.

What does TB/PA mean?

Total bases is 1 for a single, 2 for a double, 3 for a triple, 4 for a homer — so it rewards power, not just contact. Per plate appearance, around .37 is league average; .50+ is big-time slug. It's the cleanest power matchup we run: both the bat's slug and the arm's slug-against are real.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better. Total bases rewards the guys who do damage rather than just make contact, so this board leans slugger where the hits board leans average. It ranks today's spots, not the odds of any particular number.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a total base.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Total bases blends contact and power, so the platoon gap cuts twice: the opposite hand means both more balls in play and more of them driven. A hitter with a big split can swing a full base per game between the two matchups.

What are park factors?

Every extra foot of outfield is a base. Gaps and altitude turn singles into doubles and doubles into triples, while a small park trades the same batted ball for a home run. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a total base in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for total bases props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ total base" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against the box score. Total bases is one of the steadier props we publish — more ways to clear the line means less variance — and the top of the board beats the slate consistently. Every past date is auditable.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB total bases matchups — Monday, June 22, 2026

Every hitter on the Monday, June 22, 2026 slate — ranked by total-base upside — the best power and extra-base spots. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Monday, June 22, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 1/5 (20%) on our total-bases over/under, against 50% on the season.

Top 5

1/520%

season 50%

Top 10

4/1040%

season 50%

Full slate

92/21543%

season 51%

Top call Willson Contreras came through. Alec Burleson didn't.

Each hitter below carries a 0–100 matchup score — a read on the spot in front of him, not a ranking of how good he is, so a star in a brutal matchup can sit below an average hitter in a soft one. Confidence next to it is coverage: how much real data backs the number. Every call here was graded against the box score — wins and misses both, with the record on this page. How this board is built →

Final · 3–5

NYYaway

DEThomeTop matchup81 Final · 2–1

KCaway

TBhomeTop matchup71 Final · 4–3

TEXaway

MIAhomeTop matchup67 Final · 1–4

PHIaway

WSHhomeTop matchup78 Final · 2–4

HOUaway

TORhomeTop matchup67 Final · 2–1

MILaway

CINhomeTop matchup78 Final · 2–1

LADaway

MINhomeTop matchup87 Final · 5–6

CLEaway

CWShomeTop matchup78 Final · 2–3

AZaway

STLhomeTop matchup100 Final · 2–3

BOSaway

COLhomeTop matchup100 Final · 6–1

BALaway

LAAhomeTop matchup100 Final · 0–1

ATLaway

SDhomeTop matchup75

Not starting44 not in the official lineup — moved to the bottom

PosSort

#Hitter · Matchup · 260 shownScore

124 with a TBLive count — updates as games play

1
Manny Machado3B
SDvsATL· 2-for-3
6TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #51
T1
Kazuma Okamoto3B
TORvsHOU· 2-for-3
6TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #157
3
Gunnar HendersonSS
BAL@LAA· 3-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #7
T3
Taylor WardDH
BAL@LAA· 2-for-5
5TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #59
5
Shohei OhtaniTWP
LAD@MIN· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 2.0 TB, #6
T5
Byron BuxtonCF
MINvsLAD· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #9
T5
Coby Mayo3B
BAL@LAA· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #18
T5
Curtis Mead3B
WSHvsPHI· 1-for-5
4TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #36
T5
Jorge SolerDH
LAAvsBAL· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #47
T5
Freddie Freeman1B
LAD@MIN· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #50
T5
Amed Rosario3B
NYY@DET· 1-for-5
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #73
T5
Brandon NimmoRF
TEX@MIA· 3-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #84
T5
Brayan RocchioSS
CLE@CWS· 3-for-5
4TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #102
T5
Xavier Edwards2B
MIAvsTEX· 2-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #103
T5
Riley GreeneLF
DETvsNYY· 1-for-2
4TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #120
T5
Braden MontgomeryRF
CWSvsCLE· 2-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #139
T5
Brandon MarshLF
PHI@WSH· 1-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #158
T5
Luis García Jr.1B
WSHvsPHI· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #166
T5
Ezequiel DuranSS
TEX@MIA· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #183
T5
Tommy TroyLF
AZ@STL· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #215
21
Caleb Durbin3B
BOS@COL· 2-for-3
3TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #19
T21
Tyler FreemanRF
COLvsBOS· 3-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #38
T21
Corbin CarrollRF
AZ@STL· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #46
T21
James WoodRF
WSHvsPHI· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #52
T21
Jake McCarthyLF
COLvsBOS· 1-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #57
T21
Dylan CrewsRF
WSHvsPHI· 2-for-5
3TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #66
T21
Brice Turang2B
MIL@CIN· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #74
T21
Kevin McGonigleSS
DETvsNYY· 2-for-5
3TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #77
T21
Otto LopezSS
MIAvsTEX· 2-for-3
3TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #105
T21
Keibert RuizC
WSHvsPHI· 2-for-3
3TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #123
T21
Spencer Torkelson1B
DETvsNYY· 2-for-3
3TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #128
T21
Chandler SimpsonLF
TBvsKC· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #131
T21
Austin Riley3B
ATL@SD· 3-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #195
T21
Zach McKinstry2B
DETvsNYY· 1-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #207
T21
Leody TaverasCF
BAL@LAA· 2-for-3
3TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB
36
Willson Contreras1B
BOS@COL· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 2.0 TB, #4
T36
Sam AntonacciLF
CWSvsCLE· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #12
T36
JJ Wetherholt2B
STLvsAZ· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #15
T36
Paul Goldschmidt1B
NYY@DET· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #23
T36
Kyle Stowers1B
MIAvsTEX· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #34
T36
Nolan Schanuel1B
LAAvsBAL· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #41
T36
Ketel Marte2B
AZ@STL· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #45
T36
Yandy DíazDH
TBvsKC· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #55
T36
Max Muncy3B
LAD@MIN· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #75
T36
George SpringerDH
TORvsHOU· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #89
T36
Ryan ViladeRF
TBvsKC· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #98
T36
Joc PedersonDH
TEX@MIA· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #99
T36
Tristan PetersCF
CWSvsCLE· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #100
T36
Bryce Harper1B
PHI@WSH· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #114
T36
Anthony VolpeSS
NYY@DET· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #121
T36
Tommy Edman2B
LAD@MIN· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #124
T36
Nathan ChurchCF
STLvsAZ· 2-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #134
T36
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.1B
TORvsHOU· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #140
T36
Derek HillCF
PHI@WSH· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #151
T36
Maikel Garcia3B
KC@TB· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #155
T36
Marcelo Mayer2B
BOS@COL· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #172
T36
Lane ThomasLF
KC@TB· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #175
T36
Ali SánchezC
NYY@DET· 1-for-2
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #187
T36
Nasim Nuñez2B
WSHvsPHI· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #192
T36
Tim Tawa1B
AZ@STL· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #203
T36
Alejandro OsunaLF
TEX@MIA· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #208
62
Alec Burleson1B
STLvsAZ· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 2.1 TB, #1
T62
Zach NetoSS
LAAvsBAL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #2
T62
Willi Castro2B
COLvsBOS· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 2.0 TB, #5
T62
Wilyer AbreuRF
BOS@COL· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #10
T62
Donovan Walton2B
LAAvsBAL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #11
T62
Jo AdellRF
LAAvsBAL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #17
T62
TJ Rumfield1B
COLvsBOS· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #21
T62
Iván HerreraDH
STLvsAZ· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #25
T62
Fernando Tatis Jr.RF
SDvsATL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #26
T62
Matt Olson1B
ATL@SD· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #28
T62
Jonathan Aranda1B
TBvsKC· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #29
T62
Andrew BenintendiDH
CWSvsCLE· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #31
T62
Michael Harris IICF
ATL@SD· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #33
T62
Hunter GoodmanC
COLvsBOS· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #35
T62
Yordan AlvarezDH
HOU@TOR· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #37
T62
Wade MecklerLF
LAAvsBAL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #43
T62
Mauricio DubónLF
ATL@SD· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #44
T62
Cole CarriggCF
COLvsBOS· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #48
T62
Carter JensenC
KC@TB· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #49
T62
Jeremy PeñaSS
HOU@TOR· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #63
T62
Garrett MitchellCF
MIL@CIN· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #64
T62
CJ AbramsSS
WSHvsPHI· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #67
T62
Kerry CarpenterRF
DETvsNYY· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #79
T62
Nathan LukesRF
TORvsHOU· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #83
T62
Braxton FulfordDH
COLvsBOS· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #85
T62
Miguel Vargas3B
CWSvsCLE· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #86
T62
Masyn WinnSS
STLvsAZ· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #97
T62
Kyle Karros3B
COLvsBOS· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #106
T62
Jazz Chisholm Jr.2B
NYY@DET· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #115
T62
Pete Alonso1B
BAL@LAA· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #117
T62
Colt Keith3B
DETvsNYY· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #119
T62
Tyler O'NeillRF
BAL@LAA· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #129
T62
Daulton VarshoCF
TORvsHOU· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #135
T62
Rhys Hoskins1B
CLE@CWS· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #141
T62
Travis Bazzana2B
CLE@CWS· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #142
T62
Isaac Paredes3B
HOU@TOR· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #143
T62
Jacob YoungCF
WSHvsPHI· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #148
T62
Joe MackC
MIAvsTEX· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #153
T62
Royce Lewis1B
MINvsLAD· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #156
T62
Jose Altuve2B
HOU@TOR· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #159
T62
Tyler StephensonC
CINvsMIL· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #161
T62
Elias DíazC
TEX@MIA· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #162
T62
Adrian Del CastilloDH
AZ@STL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #165
T62
Alejandro KirkC
TORvsHOU· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #169
T62
Nolan Arenado3B
AZ@STL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #171
T62
Mike YastrzemskiLF
ATL@SD· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #174
T62
Chase Meidroth2B
CWSvsCLE· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #179
T62
Will WagnerDH
SDvsATL· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #184
T62
Richie Palacios2B
TBvsKC· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #190
T62
Nick Loftin3B
KC@TB· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #191
T62
Luisangel AcuñaSS
CWSvsCLE· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #193
T62
Jeremiah Jackson2B
BAL@LAA· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #194
T62
Hao-Yu Lee2B
DETvsNYY· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #196
T62
Rafael MarchánC
PHI@WSH· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #197
T62
Nicky Lopez2B
TEX@MIA· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #199
T62
Ernie Clement2B
TORvsHOU· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #202
T62
Andrés GiménezSS
TORvsHOU· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #209
T62
Owen CaissieRF
MIAvsTEX· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB
T62
Edouard Julien2B
COLvsBOS· 1-for-1
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB
T62
Daniel SchneemannCF
CLE@CWS· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB
T62
Kahlil WatsonRF
CLE@CWS· 1-for-1
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB
T62
Patrick BaileyC
CLE@CWS· 1-for-1
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB
T62
Alex Freeland2B
LAD@MIN· 1-for-1
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB

Best MLB Total Bases Matchups — Monday, June 22, 2026

Alec Burleson (STL) is the top total bases matchup on the Monday, June 22, 2026 board at 100, with Zach Neto (LAA) and Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by total-base upside — the best power and extra-base spots — raw power, the arm and bullpen they face, batting order, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top total bases spot: Alec Burleson

Alec Burleson (STL) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Merrill Kelly. The lefty is racking up bases at .530 TB/PA against righties this year — and .833 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a total base in about 53% of his trips. And Merrill Kelly has been tough on righties lately — .250 total bases per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .111 in 9 career PA against Merrill Kelly, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.

The rest of the top of the board

Zach Neto (LAA) (100) vs RHP Kyle Bradish: a strong bat at .429 into an arm mostly containing the same side (.313).
Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) (100) vs RHP Ryan Feltner: a solid bat at .395 into an arm giving up bases to the same side (.360), hitter's park, hot bat.
Willson Contreras (BOS) (94) vs RHP Ryan Feltner: a solid bat at .406 into an arm giving up bases to the same side (.360), hitter's park, due to bounce back.
Willi Castro (COL) (91) vs LHP Jake Bennett: a solid bat at .396 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park.
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (87) vs RHP Zebby Matthews: a strong bat at .462 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.517).
Gunnar Henderson (BAL) (83) vs LHP Sam Aldegheri: a league-average bat at .369 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.714).
Dillon Dingler (DET) (81) vs RHP Gerrit Cole: an excellent bat at .506 into an arm tough on the same side (.300).

Arms giving up extra bases today

RHP Kumar Rocker has been getting squared up by righties — .436 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Kyle Stowers (MIA), Heriberto Hernández (MIA), and Xavier Edwards (MIA).
RHP Zebby Matthews has been vulnerable to righties — .417 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Shohei Ohtani (LAD), Andy Pages (LAD), and Freddie Freeman (LAD).
LHP Sam Aldegheri has been vulnerable to lefties — .414 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Gunnar Henderson (BAL), Coby Mayo (BAL), and Taylor Ward (BAL).
RHP Brady Singer has been vulnerable to righties — .394 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Jackson Chourio (MIL), Christian Yelich (MIL), and Garrett Mitchell (MIL).

Platoon edges to target

Alec Burleson (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .530 against righties this year.
Willi Castro (COL) — righty bat vs LHP, .400 against lefties this year.
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .442 against righties this year.
Donovan Walton (LAA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .531 against righties this year.
Sam Antonacci (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .407 against righties this year.

Best parks for total bases today

Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% extra-base park). Top bat there: Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) at 100.

How it played out

8 of the top 10 total bases matchups landed at least one total base. Top play Alec Burleson finished with 1 total base. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these total bases matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's total bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

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What the total bases board is

The Total Bases board projects how many bases a hitter racks up vs the posted total-bases line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

His extra-base pop vs this arm.
The park.
Recent contact quality.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Total bases grades right at break-even even when we tune it to the hilt — the book prices the marginal leans efficiently. Transparency board.

How to use it

See who the model projects for extra-base damage; no systematic edge to bet.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best total bases matchup today (Monday, June 22, 2026)?: Alec Burleson (STL) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Merrill Kelly. An excellent bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB total bases matchups today (Monday, June 22, 2026)?: The top total bases matchups on Monday, June 22, 2026: Alec Burleson (100), Zach Neto (100), Ceddanne Rafaela (100), Willson Contreras (94), Willi Castro (91). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by total bases upside.
Did the top total bases matchup get a total base on Monday, June 22, 2026?: Yes — Alec Burleson got 1 total base.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Alec Burleson (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .530 against righties this year. Willi Castro (COL) — righty bat vs LHP, .400 against lefties this year. Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .442 against righties this year. Donovan Walton (LAA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .531 against righties this year. Sam Antonacci (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .407 against righties this year.
Which parks favor total bases today?: Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% extra-base park). Top bat there: Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) at 100.
Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?: RHP Kumar Rocker has been getting squared up by righties — .436 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Kyle Stowers (MIA), Heriberto Hernández (MIA), and Xavier Edwards (MIA). RHP Zebby Matthews has been vulnerable to righties — .417 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Shohei Ohtani (LAD), Andy Pages (LAD), and Freddie Freeman (LAD). LHP Sam Aldegheri has been vulnerable to lefties — .414 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Gunnar Henderson (BAL), Coby Mayo (BAL), and Taylor Ward (BAL). RHP Brady Singer has been vulnerable to righties — .394 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Jackson Chourio (MIL), Christian Yelich (MIL), and Garrett Mitchell (MIL).
How is the total bases matchup score calculated?: It's his bases-per-trip rate against that hand, recent form weighted heaviest, over a two-year baseline. Because this counts extra-base damage, slug matters as much as contact. Then the bullpen, order spot, and the yard. 0–100 across the slate.
What does TB/PA mean?: Total bases is 1 for a single, 2 for a double, 3 for a triple, 4 for a homer — so it rewards power, not just contact. Per plate appearance, around .37 is league average; .50+ is big-time slug. It's the cleanest power matchup we run: both the bat's slug and the arm's slug-against are real.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better. Total bases rewards the guys who do damage rather than just make contact, so this board leans slugger where the hits board leans average. It ranks today's spots, not the odds of any particular number.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a total base.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Total bases blends contact and power, so the platoon gap cuts twice: the opposite hand means both more balls in play and more of them driven. A hitter with a big split can swing a full base per game between the two matchups.
What are park factors?: Every extra foot of outfield is a base. Gaps and altitude turn singles into doubles and doubles into triples, while a small park trades the same batted ball for a home run. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a total base in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for total bases props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ total base" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against the box score. Total bases is one of the steadier props we publish — more ways to clear the line means less variance — and the top of the board beats the slate consistently. Every past date is auditable.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.