Best MLB Total Bases Matchups — Monday, June 22, 2026
Top total bases spot: Alec Burleson
Alec Burleson (STL) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Merrill Kelly. The lefty is racking up bases at .530 TB/PA against righties this year — and .833 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a total base in about 53% of his trips. And Merrill Kelly has been tough on righties lately — .250 total bases per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .111 in 9 career PA against Merrill Kelly, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Zach Neto (LAA) (100) vs RHP Kyle Bradish: a strong bat at .429 into an arm mostly containing the same side (.313).
- Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) (100) vs RHP Ryan Feltner: a solid bat at .395 into an arm giving up bases to the same side (.360), hitter's park, hot bat.
- Willson Contreras (BOS) (94) vs RHP Ryan Feltner: a solid bat at .406 into an arm giving up bases to the same side (.360), hitter's park, due to bounce back.
- Willi Castro (COL) (91) vs LHP Jake Bennett: a solid bat at .396 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (87) vs RHP Zebby Matthews: a strong bat at .462 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.517).
- Gunnar Henderson (BAL) (83) vs LHP Sam Aldegheri: a league-average bat at .369 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.714).
- Dillon Dingler (DET) (81) vs RHP Gerrit Cole: an excellent bat at .506 into an arm tough on the same side (.300).
Arms giving up extra bases today
- RHP Kumar Rocker has been getting squared up by righties — .436 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Kyle Stowers (MIA), Heriberto Hernández (MIA), and Xavier Edwards (MIA).
- RHP Zebby Matthews has been vulnerable to righties — .417 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Shohei Ohtani (LAD), Andy Pages (LAD), and Freddie Freeman (LAD).
- LHP Sam Aldegheri has been vulnerable to lefties — .414 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Gunnar Henderson (BAL), Coby Mayo (BAL), and Taylor Ward (BAL).
- RHP Brady Singer has been vulnerable to righties — .394 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Jackson Chourio (MIL), Christian Yelich (MIL), and Garrett Mitchell (MIL).
Platoon edges to target
- Alec Burleson (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .530 against righties this year.
- Willi Castro (COL) — righty bat vs LHP, .400 against lefties this year.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .442 against righties this year.
- Donovan Walton (LAA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .531 against righties this year.
- Sam Antonacci (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .407 against righties this year.
Best parks for total bases today
Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% extra-base park). Top bat there: Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) at 100.
How it played out
8 of the top 10 total bases matchups landed at least one total base. Top play Alec Burleson finished with 1 total base. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these total bases matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's total bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.