Best MLB Total Bases Matchups — Tuesday, June 23, 2026
Top total bases spot: Pete Crow-Armstrong
Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Kodai Senga. The lefty is racking up bases at .493 TB/PA against righties this year — and .864 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a total base in about 53% of his trips. And Kodai Senga has been tough on righties lately — .000 total bases per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 2 career PA against Kodai Senga, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park, though the weather fights it.
The rest of the top of the board
- Zach Neto (LAA) (100) vs RHP Shane Baz: a strong bat at .429 into an arm tough on the same side (.222).
- Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) (100) vs LHP Sean Sullivan: a strong bat at .432 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park.
- Travis Bazzana (CLE) (100) vs RHP Sean Burke: a strong bat at .478 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.424), hot bat.
- TJ Rumfield (COL) (99) vs RHP Sonny Gray: an excellent bat at .487 into an arm mostly containing the same side (.320), hitter's park, hot bat.
- Pete Alonso (BAL) (98) vs RHP Ryan Johnson: a strong bat at .444 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.636).
- Ozzie Albies (ATL) (97) vs LHP Wandy Peralta: a strong bat at .458 into an arm tough on the same side (.235).
- Hunter Goodman (COL) (96) vs RHP Sonny Gray: a strong bat at .446 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.480), hitter's park.
Arms giving up extra bases today
- RHP Shane Bieber has been getting squared up by righties — .481 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Jose Altuve (HOU), Christian Walker (HOU), and Yordan Alvarez (HOU).
- RHP Ryan Johnson has been getting squared up by righties — .442 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Pete Alonso (BAL), Gunnar Henderson (BAL), and Samuel Basallo (BAL).
- RHP Edward Cabrera has been vulnerable to righties — .415 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Juan Soto (NYM), Carson Benge (NYM), and Bo Bichette (NYM).
- RHP Peter Lambert has been vulnerable to righties — .399 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: George Springer (TOR), Kazuma Okamoto (TOR), and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR).
Platoon edges to target
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .493 against righties this year.
- Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) — righty bat vs LHP, .515 against lefties this year.
- Travis Bazzana (CLE) — lefty bat vs RHP, .515 against righties this year.
- TJ Rumfield (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .469 against righties this year.
- Ozzie Albies (ATL) — righty bat vs LHP, .496 against lefties this year.
Best parks for total bases today
Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% extra-base park). Top bat there: Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) at 100.
How it played out
8 of the top 10 total bases matchups landed at least one total base. Top play Pete Crow-Armstrong finished with 4 total bases. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these total bases matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's total bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.