Best MLB Total Bases Matchups — Wednesday, June 24, 2026
Top total bases spot: Ketel Marte
Ketel Marte (AZ) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Matthew Liberatore. The righty is racking up bases at .490 TB/PA against lefties this year — and .450 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a total base in about 43% of his trips. And Matthew Liberatore has been getting squared up by lefties lately — 1.120 total bases per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Matthew Liberatore too — .333 across 3 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Ozzie Albies (ATL) (100) vs LHP JP Sears: a strong bat at .451 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) (100) vs RHP Nolan McLean: an elite bat at .552 into an arm tough on the same side (.263), hot bat.
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) (98) vs RHP Tyler Mahle: a strong bat at .460 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) (96) vs LHP Kyle Freeland: a solid bat at .417 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.488), hitter's park.
- Byron Buxton (MIN) (94) vs RHP Shohei Ohtani: an excellent bat at .528 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hot bat.
- Nate Eaton (BOS) (93) vs LHP Kyle Freeland: a solid bat at .390 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.488), hitter's park.
- Mauricio Dubón (ATL) (91) vs LHP JP Sears: a solid bat at .392 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
Arms giving up extra bases today
- LHP Matthew Liberatore has been getting squared up by lefties — .508 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Ketel Marte (AZ), Corbin Carroll (AZ), and Tommy Troy (AZ).
- LHP Kyle Freeland has been getting squared up by lefties — .455 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS), Nate Eaton (BOS), and Wilyer Abreu (BOS).
- RHP Aaron Nola has been getting squared up by righties — .432 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Luis García Jr. (WSH), James Wood (WSH), and CJ Abrams (WSH).
- LHP JP Sears has been getting squared up by lefties — .429 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Ozzie Albies (ATL), Mauricio Dubón (ATL), and Michael Harris II (ATL).
Platoon edges to target
- Ketel Marte (AZ) — righty bat vs LHP, .490 against lefties this year.
- Ozzie Albies (ATL) — righty bat vs LHP, .496 against lefties this year.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .500 against righties this year.
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .448 against righties this year.
- Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) — righty bat vs LHP, .486 against lefties this year.
Best parks for total bases today
Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% extra-base park). Top bat there: Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) at 96.
How it played out
6 of the top 10 total bases matchups landed at least one total base. Top play Ketel Marte finished with 5 total bases. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these total bases matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's total bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.