Who has the best total bases matchup today (Wednesday, July 1, 2026)?

Otto Lopez (MIA) — top of the board at 100, facing LHP Kyle Freeland. A strong bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB total bases matchups today (Wednesday, July 1, 2026)?

The top total bases matchups on Wednesday, July 1, 2026: Otto Lopez (100), Luis Arraez (100), Nathan Lukes (93), Esteury Ruiz (92), Shohei Ohtani (91). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by total bases upside.

Did the top total bases matchup get a total base on Wednesday, July 1, 2026?

Yes — Otto Lopez got 1 total base.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Otto Lopez (MIA) — righty bat vs LHP, .634 against lefties this year. Luis Arraez (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .432 against righties this year. Nathan Lukes (TOR) — lefty bat vs RHP, .445 against righties this year. Esteury Ruiz (MIA) — righty bat vs LHP, .510 against lefties this year. Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .445 against righties this year.

Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?

LHP Kyle Freeland has been getting squared up by lefties — .475 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Otto Lopez (MIA), Esteury Ruiz (MIA), and Heriberto Hernández (MIA). RHP Freddy Peralta has been getting squared up by righties — .434 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Nathan Lukes (TOR), Daulton Varsho (TOR), and Kazuma Okamoto (TOR). LHP Andrew Abbott has been getting squared up by lefties — .429 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Jackson Chourio (MIL), William Contreras (MIL), and Andrew Vaughn (MIL). RHP Zac Gallen has been getting squared up by righties — .423 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Luis Arraez (SF), Rafael Devers (SF), and Casey Schmitt (SF).

How is the total bases matchup score calculated?

It's his bases-per-trip rate against that hand, recent form weighted heaviest, over a two-year baseline. Because this counts extra-base damage, slug matters as much as contact. Then the bullpen, order spot, and the yard. 0–100 across the slate.

What does TB/PA mean?

Total bases is 1 for a single, 2 for a double, 3 for a triple, 4 for a homer — so it rewards power, not just contact. Per plate appearance, around .37 is league average; .50+ is big-time slug. It's the cleanest power matchup we run: both the bat's slug and the arm's slug-against are real.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better. Total bases rewards the guys who do damage rather than just make contact, so this board leans slugger where the hits board leans average. It ranks today's spots, not the odds of any particular number.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a total base.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Total bases blends contact and power, so the platoon gap cuts twice: the opposite hand means both more balls in play and more of them driven. A hitter with a big split can swing a full base per game between the two matchups.

What are park factors?

Every extra foot of outfield is a base. Gaps and altitude turn singles into doubles and doubles into triples, while a small park trades the same batted ball for a home run. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a total base in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for total bases props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ total base" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against the box score. Total bases is one of the steadier props we publish — more ways to clear the line means less variance — and the top of the board beats the slate consistently. Every past date is auditable.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB total bases matchups — Wednesday, July 1, 2026

Every hitter on the Wednesday, July 1, 2026 slate — ranked by total-base upside — the best power and extra-base spots. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Wednesday, July 1, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 3/5 (60%) on our total-bases over/under, against 50% on the season.

Top 5

3/560%

season 50%

Top 10

4/1040%

season 49%

Full slate

112/24446%

season 51%

Top call Otto Lopez came through. Luis Arraez didn't.

Each hitter below carries a 0–100 matchup score — a read on the spot in front of him, not a ranking of how good he is, so a star in a brutal matchup can sit below an average hitter in a soft one. Confidence next to it is coverage: how much real data backs the number. Every call here was graded against the box score — wins and misses both, with the record on this page. How this board is built →

Final · 1–6

CWSaway

BALhomeTop matchup79 Final · 4–9

TEXaway

CLEhomeTop matchup67 Final · 10–2

WSHaway

BOShomeTop matchup84 Final · 6–2

DETaway

NYYhomeTop matchup84 Final · 3–23

SDaway

CHChomeTop matchup76 Final · 3–9

NYMaway

TORhomeTop matchup93 Final · 6–10

PITaway

PHIhomeTop matchup67 Final · 1–5

STLaway

ATLhomeTop matchup61 Final · 4–0

TBaway

KChomeTop matchup84 Final · 8–3

MINaway

HOUhomeTop matchup64 Final · 2–4

CINaway

MILhomeTop matchup78 Final · 3–6

MIAaway

COLhomeTop matchup100 Final · 1–7

LADaway

ATHhomeTop matchup91 Final · 6–4

SFaway

AZhomeTop matchup100

Not starting69 not in the official lineup — moved to the bottom

PosSort

#Hitter · Matchup · 321 shownScore

164 with a TBLive count — updates as games play

1
Dansby SwansonSS
CHCvsSD· 3-for-5
12TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #150
2
Mickey MoniakLF
COLvsMIA· 3-for-4
9TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #88
T2
Michael ConfortoDH
CHCvsSD· 3-for-4
9TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #216
4
Garrett MitchellCF
MILvsCIN· 4-for-4
8TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #193
5
Seiya SuzukiRF
CHCvsSD· 3-for-5
7TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #48
T5
Heliot RamosLF
SF@AZ· 2-for-4
7TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #61
7
Carson BengeRF
NYM@TOR· 2-for-4
6TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #34
T7
Ozzie Albies2B
ATLvsSTL· 2-for-4
6TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #70
T7
Sung-Mun Song2B
SD@CHC· 2-for-4
6TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #232
10
James WoodRF
WSH@BOS· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #10
T10
Sam AntonacciLF
CWS@BAL· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #11
T10
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF
CHCvsSD· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #35
T10
Brandon MarshLF
PHIvsPIT· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #59
T10
Trea TurnerSS
PHIvsPIT· 2-for-5
5TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #62
T10
Shea LangeliersC
ATHvsLAD· 2-for-5
5TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #83
T10
Victor BericotoLF
SF@AZ· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #92
T10
Jonah HeimC
ATHvsLAD· 2-for-3
5TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #119
T10
Cedric MullinsCF
TB@KC· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #135
T10
Michael Busch1B
CHCvsSD· 2-for-6
5TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #165
T10
Elias DíazC
TEX@CLE· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #196
21
Junior Caminero3B
TB@KC· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #9
T21
Kevin McGonigleSS
DET@NYY· 1-for-5
4TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #12
T21
Freddie Freeman1B
LAD@ATH· 1-for-2
4TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #15
T21
Chase DeLauterRF
CLEvsTEX· 3-for-5
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #27
T21
Trevor LarnachLF
MIN@HOU· 3-for-5
4TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #30
T21
Josh BellDH
MIN@HOU· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #73
T21
Kody Clemens1B
MIN@HOU· 1-for-5
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #78
T21
Hunter GoodmanC
COLvsMIA· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #81
T21
David FryRF
CLEvsTEX· 1-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #95
T21
Amed Rosario3B
NYYvsDET· 1-for-5
4TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #98
T21
Francisco LindorSS
NYM@TOR· 1-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #113
T21
Curtis Mead3B
WSH@BOS· 2-for-5
4TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #131
T21
Tyler O'NeillRF
BALvsCWS· 1-for-2
4TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #152
T21
Sean KeysDH
TORvsNYM· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #163
T21
Alec Bohm3B
PHIvsPIT· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #178
T21
Leody TaverasCF
BALvsCWS· 1-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #187
T21
Taylor WallsSS
TB@KC· 3-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #191
T21
Blaze Alexander3B
BALvsCWS· 2-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #197
T21
Noelvi MarteRF
CIN@MIL· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #202
T21
Andrés Chaparro1B
WSH@BOS· 1-for-2
4TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #209
T21
Kyle Karros3B
COLvsMIA· 1-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #217
T21
Austin HedgesC
CLEvsTEX· 1-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #229
T21
Alika WilliamsSS
ATHvsLAD· 1-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #235
T21
Jacob YoungCF
WSH@BOS· 2-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #240
T21
Henry DavisC
PIT@PHI· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #243
T21
Nasim Nuñez2B
WSH@BOS· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #246
T21
Luke Keaschall2B
MIN@HOU· 1-for-2
4TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #250
T21
Joe MackC
MIA@COL· 1-for-1
4TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB
49
Dillon DinglerC
DET@NYY· 2-for-5
3TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #18
T49
Javier Sanoja3B
MIA@COL· 1-for-2
3TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #23
T49
Ketel Marte2B
AZvsSF· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #46
T49
Ty France1B
SD@CHC· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #50
T49
Yordan AlvarezDH
HOUvsMIN· 3-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #54
T49
Ceddanne RafaelaCF
BOSvsWSH· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #57
T49
Jazz Chisholm Jr.2B
NYYvsDET· 2-for-5
3TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #104
T49
Chandler SimpsonLF
TB@KC· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #105
T49
Joshua Kuroda-Grauer3B
ATHvsLAD· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #126
T49
Kahlil WatsonRF
CLEvsTEX· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #128
T49
Ezequiel DuranSS
TEX@CLE· 3-for-5
3TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #137
T49
Tyler StephensonC
CIN@MIL· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #182
T49
Jake Cronenworth2B
SD@CHC· 3-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #201
T49
Nick Gonzales3B
PIT@PHI· 3-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #208
T49
Ernie Clement2B
TORvsNYM· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #215
T49
Samad TaylorLF
SD@CHC· 1-for-2
3TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB
T49
Steven KwanLF
CLEvsTEX· 1-for-2
3TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB
66
Nathan LukesRF
TORvsNYM· 2-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #3
T66
Heriberto HernándezLF
MIA@COL· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #13
T66
Jonathan Aranda1B
TB@KC· 2-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #25
T66
Bryce Harper1B
PHIvsPIT· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #26
T66
Jac CaglianoneRF
KCvsTB· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #40
T66
Gavin Sheets1B
SD@CHC· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #41
T66
Manny Machado3B
SD@CHC· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #42
T66
Braden MontgomeryRF
CWS@BAL· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #47
T66
Andrew Vaughn1B
MILvsCIN· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #53
T66
Andy PagesCF
LAD@ATH· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #55
T66
Kazuma Okamoto3B
TORvsNYM· 2-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #56
T66
Max Muncy3B
LAD@ATH· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #60
T66
Elly De La CruzSS
CIN@MIL· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #63
T66
Liam HicksC
MIA@COL· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #64
T66
Jung Hoo LeeRF
SF@AZ· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #68
T66
Willson Contreras1B
BOSvsWSH· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #76
T66
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.1B
TORvsNYM· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #85
T66
Daylen LileLF
WSH@BOS· 1-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #86
T66
Colby ThomasRF
ATHvsLAD· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #87
T66
Nick Kurtz1B
ATHvsLAD· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #97
T66
Brice Turang2B
MILvsCIN· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #118
T66
Drew CavanaughC
SF@AZ· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #120
T66
Iván HerreraDH
STL@ATL· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #134
T66
Dylan CrewsRF
WSH@BOS· 2-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #140
T66
Eugenio SuárezDH
CIN@MIL· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #142
T66
Alejandro KirkC
TORvsNYM· 2-for-2
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #149
T66
Cam SmithRF
HOUvsMIN· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #151
T66
Bryson Stott2B
PHIvsPIT· 2-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #160
T66
Ian HappLF
CHCvsSD· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #161
T66
Miguel AmayaC
CHCvsSD· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #164
T66
Miguel Rojas2B
LAD@ATH· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #183
T66
Connor WongC
BOSvsWSH· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #198
T66
Jake MangumCF
PIT@PHI· 2-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #203
T66
Andruw MonasterioSS
BOSvsWSH· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #204
T66
Gabriel Rincones Jr.RF
PHIvsPIT· 2-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #213
T66
Nicky Lopez2B
TEX@CLE· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #219
T66
Henry BolteCF
ATHvsLAD· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #234
T66
Jared TrioloSS
PIT@PHI· 1-for-2
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB
104
Otto LopezSS
MIA@COL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 2.1 TB, #1
T104
Rafael Devers1B
SF@AZ· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #6
T104
Kerry CarpenterRF
DET@NYY· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #8
T104
Jackson ChourioLF
MILvsCIN· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #14
T104
Daulton VarshoCF
TORvsNYM· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #22
T104
Bryce EldridgeDH
SF@AZ· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #24
T104
Wilyer AbreuRF
BOSvsWSH· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #28
T104
Ben RiceDH
NYYvsDET· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #29
T104
Brooks Lee3B
MIN@HOU· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #31
T104
Justin Foscue2B
TEX@CLE· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #33
T104
William ContrerasC
MILvsCIN· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #36
T104
Taylor WardDH
BALvsCWS· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #43
T104
Drake BaldwinC
ATLvsSTL· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #44
T104
Adley RutschmanC
BALvsCWS· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #49
T104
Colt Keith3B
DET@NYY· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #52
T104
Brandon Lowe2B
PIT@PHI· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #65
T104
Michael Harris IICF
ATLvsSTL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #66
T104
Zach McKinstry2B
DET@NYY· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #77
T104
Bobby Witt Jr.SS
KCvsTB· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #82
T104
Victor Mesa Jr.RF
TB@KC· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #84
T104
Bryan ReynoldsLF
PIT@PHI· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #93
T104
Jose Altuve2B
HOUvsMIN· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #99
T104
Sal Stewart1B
CIN@MIL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #106
T104
Ryan O'HearnRF
PIT@PHI· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #107
T104
Kyle Manzardo1B
CLEvsTEX· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #108
T104
Konnor GriffinSS
PIT@PHI· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #110
T104
Gunnar HendersonSS
BALvsCWS· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #111
T104
Isaac Paredes3B
HOUvsMIN· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #114
T104
Romy GonzalezDH
BOSvsWSH· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #116
T104
Tristan PetersCF
CWS@BAL· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #117
T104
Dominic SmithDH
ATLvsSTL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #125
T104
Geraldo PerdomoSS
AZvsSF· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #127
T104
Victor CaratiniC
MIN@HOU· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #153
T104
Owen CaissieRF
MIA@COL· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #158
T104
Gabriel MorenoC
AZvsSF· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #166
T104
Esmerlyn ValdezRF
PIT@PHI· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #168
T104
Salvador PerezDH
KCvsTB· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #169
T104
Starling MarteRF
KCvsTB· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #170
T104
Anthony VolpeSS
NYYvsDET· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #171
T104
Brayan RocchioSS
CLEvsTEX· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #172
T104
Jordan WalkerRF
STL@ATL· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #175
T104
Gabriel Arias3B
CLEvsTEX· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #180
T104
Joey LoperfidoLF
HOUvsMIN· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #181
T104
Christian Koss3B
SF@AZ· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #185
T104
Austin Riley3B
ATLvsSTL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #190
T104
Troy JohnstonRF
COLvsMIA· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #192
T104
Michael Massey2B
KCvsTB· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #199
T104
José CaballeroSS
NYYvsDET· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #212
T104
Tyler FreemanRF
COLvsMIA· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #214
T104
Nolan Arenado3B
AZvsSF· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #221
T104
Justin CrawfordCF
PHIvsPIT· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #227
T104
Tyrone TaylorLF
NYM@TOR· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #237
T104
Edwin Arroyo2B
CIN@MIL· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #245
T104
Brett Baty3B
NYM@TOR· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #247
T104
Tommy TroyLF
AZvsSF· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #248
T104
Drew MillasC
WSH@BOS· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.2 TB, #251
T104
Pavin Smith1B
AZvsSF· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #252
T104
Miguel AndujarDH
SD@CHC· 1-for-1
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB
T104
Kevin AlcántaraDH
CHCvsSD· 1-for-1
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB
T104
Spencer JonesRF
NYYvsDET· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB
T104
Nick AllenSS
HOUvsMIN· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB

Best MLB Total Bases Matchups — Wednesday, July 1, 2026

Otto Lopez (MIA) is the top total bases matchup on the Wednesday, July 1, 2026 board at 100, with Luis Arraez (SF) and Nathan Lukes (TOR) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by total-base upside — the best power and extra-base spots — raw power, the arm and bullpen they face, batting order, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top total bases spot: Otto Lopez

Otto Lopez (MIA) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Kyle Freeland. The righty is racking up bases at .634 TB/PA against lefties this year — and .667 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a total base in about 42% of his trips. And Kyle Freeland has been getting squared up by lefties lately — .643 total bases per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .091 in 11 career PA against Kyle Freeland, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.

The rest of the top of the board

Luis Arraez (SF) (100) vs RHP Zac Gallen: a strong bat at .465 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.576), hot bat.
Nathan Lukes (TOR) (93) vs RHP Freddy Peralta: a strong bat at .430 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.731), due to bounce back.
Esteury Ruiz (MIA) (92) vs LHP Kyle Freeland: a solid bat at .406 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.643), due to bounce back.
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (91) vs RHP J.T. Ginn: a strong bat at .453 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.455), hot bat.
Rafael Devers (SF) (89) vs RHP Zac Gallen: an excellent bat at .499 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.576), hot bat.
Anthony Seigler (BOS) (84) vs RHP Brad Lord: a solid bat at .400 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.667), hot bat.
Kerry Carpenter (DET) (84) vs RHP Will Warren: a strong bat at .445 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.542), hot bat.

Arms giving up extra bases today

LHP Kyle Freeland has been getting squared up by lefties — .475 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Otto Lopez (MIA), Esteury Ruiz (MIA), and Heriberto Hernández (MIA).
RHP Freddy Peralta has been getting squared up by righties — .434 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Nathan Lukes (TOR), Daulton Varsho (TOR), and Kazuma Okamoto (TOR).
LHP Andrew Abbott has been getting squared up by lefties — .429 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Jackson Chourio (MIL), William Contreras (MIL), and Andrew Vaughn (MIL).
RHP Zac Gallen has been getting squared up by righties — .423 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Luis Arraez (SF), Rafael Devers (SF), and Casey Schmitt (SF).

Platoon edges to target

Otto Lopez (MIA) — righty bat vs LHP, .634 against lefties this year.
Luis Arraez (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .432 against righties this year.
Nathan Lukes (TOR) — lefty bat vs RHP, .445 against righties this year.
Esteury Ruiz (MIA) — righty bat vs LHP, .510 against lefties this year.
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .445 against righties this year.

How it played out

6 of the top 10 total bases matchups landed at least one total base. Top play Otto Lopez finished with 1 total base. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these total bases matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's total bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

What the total bases board is

The Total Bases board projects how many bases a hitter racks up vs the posted total-bases line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

His extra-base pop vs this arm.
The park.
Recent contact quality.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Total bases grades right at break-even even when we tune it to the hilt — the book prices the marginal leans efficiently. Transparency board.

How to use it

See who the model projects for extra-base damage; no systematic edge to bet.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best total bases matchup today (Wednesday, July 1, 2026)?: Otto Lopez (MIA) — top of the board at 100, facing LHP Kyle Freeland. A strong bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB total bases matchups today (Wednesday, July 1, 2026)?: The top total bases matchups on Wednesday, July 1, 2026: Otto Lopez (100), Luis Arraez (100), Nathan Lukes (93), Esteury Ruiz (92), Shohei Ohtani (91). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by total bases upside.
Did the top total bases matchup get a total base on Wednesday, July 1, 2026?: Yes — Otto Lopez got 1 total base.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Otto Lopez (MIA) — righty bat vs LHP, .634 against lefties this year. Luis Arraez (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .432 against righties this year. Nathan Lukes (TOR) — lefty bat vs RHP, .445 against righties this year. Esteury Ruiz (MIA) — righty bat vs LHP, .510 against lefties this year. Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .445 against righties this year.
Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?: LHP Kyle Freeland has been getting squared up by lefties — .475 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Otto Lopez (MIA), Esteury Ruiz (MIA), and Heriberto Hernández (MIA). RHP Freddy Peralta has been getting squared up by righties — .434 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Nathan Lukes (TOR), Daulton Varsho (TOR), and Kazuma Okamoto (TOR). LHP Andrew Abbott has been getting squared up by lefties — .429 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Jackson Chourio (MIL), William Contreras (MIL), and Andrew Vaughn (MIL). RHP Zac Gallen has been getting squared up by righties — .423 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Luis Arraez (SF), Rafael Devers (SF), and Casey Schmitt (SF).
How is the total bases matchup score calculated?: It's his bases-per-trip rate against that hand, recent form weighted heaviest, over a two-year baseline. Because this counts extra-base damage, slug matters as much as contact. Then the bullpen, order spot, and the yard. 0–100 across the slate.
What does TB/PA mean?: Total bases is 1 for a single, 2 for a double, 3 for a triple, 4 for a homer — so it rewards power, not just contact. Per plate appearance, around .37 is league average; .50+ is big-time slug. It's the cleanest power matchup we run: both the bat's slug and the arm's slug-against are real.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better. Total bases rewards the guys who do damage rather than just make contact, so this board leans slugger where the hits board leans average. It ranks today's spots, not the odds of any particular number.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a total base.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Total bases blends contact and power, so the platoon gap cuts twice: the opposite hand means both more balls in play and more of them driven. A hitter with a big split can swing a full base per game between the two matchups.
What are park factors?: Every extra foot of outfield is a base. Gaps and altitude turn singles into doubles and doubles into triples, while a small park trades the same batted ball for a home run. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a total base in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for total bases props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ total base" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against the box score. Total bases is one of the steadier props we publish — more ways to clear the line means less variance — and the top of the board beats the slate consistently. Every past date is auditable.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.