Best MLB Total Bases Matchups — Wednesday, July 1, 2026
Top total bases spot: Shohei Ohtani
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) tops the board at 100, facing RHP J.T. Ginn. The lefty is racking up bases at .447 TB/PA against righties this year — and .606 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a total base in about 45% of his trips. And J.T. Ginn has been giving up bases to righties lately — .372 total bases per batter faced. The bullpen behind him hasn't been any better to that side, so there's no relief late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against J.T. Ginn. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Junior Caminero (TB) (99) vs RHP Seth Lugo: an excellent bat at .525 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.625), hot bat.
- Rafael Devers (SF) (97) vs RHP Zac Gallen: an excellent bat at .483 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.576), hot bat.
- Luis Arraez (SF) (96) vs RHP Zac Gallen: a strong bat at .420 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.576), hot bat.
- Nathan Lukes (TOR) (96) vs RHP Freddy Peralta: a strong bat at .443 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.731), due to bounce back.
- Carter Jensen (KC) (92) vs LHP Shane McClanahan: a strong bat at .434 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.647), hot bat.
- Jackson Chourio (MIL) (90) vs LHP Andrew Abbott: a solid bat at .395 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.667).
- Yandy Díaz (TB) (88) vs RHP Seth Lugo: a solid bat at .410 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.625), hot bat.
Arms giving up extra bases today
- LHP Kyle Freeland has been getting squared up by lefties — .475 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Xavier Edwards (MIA), Kyle Stowers (MIA), and Liam Hicks (MIA).
- RHP Freddy Peralta has been getting squared up by righties — .434 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Nathan Lukes (TOR), Sean Keys (TOR), and George Springer (TOR).
- LHP Andrew Abbott has been getting squared up by lefties — .429 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Jackson Chourio (MIL), William Contreras (MIL), and Christian Yelich (MIL).
- RHP Zac Gallen has been getting squared up by righties — .423 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Rafael Devers (SF), Luis Arraez (SF), and Casey Schmitt (SF).
Platoon edges to target
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .447 against righties this year.
- Rafael Devers (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .483 against righties this year.
- Luis Arraez (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .406 against righties this year.
- Nathan Lukes (TOR) — lefty bat vs RHP, .458 against righties this year.
- Jackson Chourio (MIL) — righty bat vs LHP, .541 against lefties this year.
Lineup watch
252 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these total bases matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's total bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.