Who has the best total bases matchup today (Thursday, July 2, 2026)?

Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Randy Vásquez. A strong bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB total bases matchups today (Thursday, July 2, 2026)?

The top total bases matchups on Thursday, July 2, 2026: Shohei Ohtani (100), Jonathan Aranda (100), Freddie Freeman (95), Junior Caminero (91), Kyle Stowers (89). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by total bases upside.

Did the top total bases matchup get a total base on Thursday, July 2, 2026?

Yes — Shohei Ohtani got 1 total base.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .439 against righties this year. Jonathan Aranda (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .444 against righties this year. Freddie Freeman (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .471 against righties this year. Kyle Stowers (MIA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .396 against righties this year. Liam Hicks (MIA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .444 against righties this year.

Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?

RHP Randy Vásquez has been getting squared up by righties — .478 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Shohei Ohtani (LAD), Freddie Freeman (LAD), and Mookie Betts (LAD). RHP Stephen Kolek has been getting squared up by righties — .477 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Jonathan Aranda (TB), Junior Caminero (TB), and Victor Mesa Jr. (TB). RHP Dustin May has been vulnerable to righties — .415 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Matt Olson (ATL), Ozzie Albies (ATL), and Drake Baldwin (ATL). RHP Michael Lorenzen has been vulnerable to righties — .412 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Kyle Stowers (MIA), Liam Hicks (MIA), and Otto Lopez (MIA).

How is the total bases matchup score calculated?

It's his bases-per-trip rate against that hand, recent form weighted heaviest, over a two-year baseline. Because this counts extra-base damage, slug matters as much as contact. Then the bullpen, order spot, and the yard. 0–100 across the slate.

What does TB/PA mean?

Total bases is 1 for a single, 2 for a double, 3 for a triple, 4 for a homer — so it rewards power, not just contact. Per plate appearance, around .37 is league average; .50+ is big-time slug. It's the cleanest power matchup we run: both the bat's slug and the arm's slug-against are real.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better. Total bases rewards the guys who do damage rather than just make contact, so this board leans slugger where the hits board leans average. It ranks today's spots, not the odds of any particular number.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a total base.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Total bases blends contact and power, so the platoon gap cuts twice: the opposite hand means both more balls in play and more of them driven. A hitter with a big split can swing a full base per game between the two matchups.

What are park factors?

Every extra foot of outfield is a base. Gaps and altitude turn singles into doubles and doubles into triples, while a small park trades the same batted ball for a home run. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a total base in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for total bases props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ total base" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against the box score. Total bases is one of the steadier props we publish — more ways to clear the line means less variance — and the top of the board beats the slate consistently. Every past date is auditable.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB total bases matchups — Thursday, July 2, 2026

Every hitter on the Thursday, July 2, 2026 slate — ranked by total-base upside — the best power and extra-base spots. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Thursday, July 2, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 0/5 (0%) on our total-bases over/under, against 49% on the season.

Top 5

0/50%

season 49%

Top 10

2/1020%

season 48%

Full slate

84/16053%

season 51%

Top call Fernando Tatis Jr. came through. Shohei Ohtani didn't.

Each hitter below carries a 0–100 matchup score — a read on the spot in front of him, not a ranking of how good he is, so a star in a brutal matchup can sit below an average hitter in a soft one. Confidence next to it is coverage: how much real data backs the number. Every call here was graded against the box score — wins and misses both, with the record on this page. How this board is built →

Final · 6–1

PITaway

PHIhomeTop matchup77 Final · 7–2

CINaway

MILhomeTop matchup73 Final · 4–14

MIAaway

COLhomeTop matchup89 Final · 5–6

CWSaway

CLEhomeTop matchup64 Final · 11–5

STLaway

ATLhomeTop matchup71 Final · 5–2

TBaway

KChomeTop matchup100 Final · 4–10

DETaway

TEXhomeTop matchup72 Final · 0–1

LAAaway

SEAhomeTop matchup75 Final · 7–12

SDaway

LADhomeTop matchup100

Not starting37 not in the official lineup — moved to the bottom

PosSort

#Hitter · Matchup · 199 shownScore

112 with a TBLive count — updates as games play

1
Dalton RushingC
LADvsSD· 4-for-4
8TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #90
2
Mickey MoniakLF
COLvsMIA· 3-for-5
7TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #25
3
Otto LopezSS
MIA@COL· 3-for-5
6TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #14
T3
Elias DíazC
TEXvsDET· 2-for-4
6TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #78
T3
Nick Gonzales3B
PIT@PHI· 3-for-5
6TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #98
T3
Jose TrevinoC
CIN@MIL· 3-for-4
6TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #155
7
Carter JensenC
KCvsTB· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #13
T7
Jake McCarthyLF
COLvsMIA· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #24
T7
Cedric MullinsCF
TB@KC· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #29
T7
Kyle TuckerRF
LADvsSD· 4-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #84
T7
Hunter FeducciaC
TB@KC· 3-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #95
T7
Jordan WalkerRF
STL@ATL· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #111
T7
TJ FriedlCF
CIN@MIL· 2-for-3
5TBFinal
Proj 1.2 TB, #162
14
Manny Machado3B
SD@LAD· 1-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #26
T14
Jake MangumCF
PIT@PHI· 3-for-5
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #38
T14
Garrett MitchellCF
MILvsCIN· 1-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #57
T14
Sal Stewart1B
CIN@MIL· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #66
T14
Esmerlyn ValdezRF
PIT@PHI· 2-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #75
T14
Alec Burleson1B
STL@ATL· 1-for-5
4TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #80
T14
Jake Cronenworth2B
SD@LAD· 1-for-5
4TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #81
T14
Colt Keith3B
DET@TEX· 1-for-2
4TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #83
T14
Endy RodríguezC
PIT@PHI· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #97
T14
Brayan RocchioSS
CLEvsCWS· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #116
T14
Chase Meidroth2B
CWS@CLE· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #133
T14
Jackson MerrillCF
SD@LAD· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #142
T14
Nathan ChurchCF
STL@ATL· 1-for-5
4TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #145
T14
Isaac CollinsLF
KCvsTB· 1-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #153
T14
Hao-Yu Lee2B
DET@TEX· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #157
T14
David FryRF
CLEvsCWS· 1-for-1
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB
30
Mookie BettsSS
LADvsSD· 2-for-5
3TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #8
T30
Chandler SimpsonLF
TB@KC· 3-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #17
T30
Sam AntonacciLF
CWS@CLE· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #36
T30
TJ Rumfield1B
COLvsMIA· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #41
T30
Josh Jung3B
TEXvsDET· 2-for-3
3TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #43
T30
Travis Bazzana2B
CLEvsCWS· 2-for-3
3TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #44
T30
Dillon DinglerC
DET@TEX· 2-for-5
3TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #45
T30
Max Muncy3B
LADvsSD· 2-for-5
3TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #54
T30
Troy JohnstonRF
COLvsMIA· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #87
T30
Zach McKinstry2B
DET@TEX· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #99
T30
Tommy Edman2B
LADvsSD· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #102
T30
Lars NootbaarLF
STL@ATL· 2-for-5
3TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #113
T30
Masyn WinnSS
STL@ATL· 3-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #136
T30
Alejandro OsunaLF
TEXvsDET· 3-for-5
3TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #156
T30
Patrick BaileyC
CLEvsCWS· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #158
T30
Nicky Lopez2B
TEXvsDET· 3-for-5
3TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #160
46
Fernando Tatis Jr.RF
SD@LAD· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #7
T46
Bryce Harper1B
PHIvsPIT· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #12
T46
Andy PagesCF
LADvsSD· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #28
T46
Brice Turang2B
MILvsCIN· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #31
T46
Kevin McGonigleSS
DET@TEX· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #34
T46
Brandon Lowe2B
PIT@PHI· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #37
T46
Riley GreeneLF
DET@TEX· 1-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #46
T46
Miguel Vargas3B
CWS@CLE· 1-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #47
T46
JJ Wetherholt2B
STL@ATL· 2-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #52
T46
Ryan O'HearnRF
PIT@PHI· 1-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #53
T46
Ezequiel DuranSS
TEXvsDET· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #56
T46
Taylor WallsSS
TB@KC· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #61
T46
Javier Sanoja3B
MIA@COL· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #62
T46
Dominic SmithDH
ATLvsSTL· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #63
T46
Nolan Schanuel1B
LAA@SEA· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #69
T46
J.P. CrawfordSS
SEAvsLAA· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #70
T46
Gavin Sheets1B
SD@LAD· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #71
T46
Mauricio DubónLF
ATLvsSTL· 2-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #79
T46
Kyle TeelC
CWS@CLE· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #85
T46
Alec Bohm3B
PHIvsPIT· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #89
T46
Braden MontgomeryRF
CWS@CLE· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #118
T46
Freddy FerminC
SD@LAD· 1-for-2
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #121
T46
Xander BogaertsSS
SD@LAD· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #125
T46
Lane ThomasLF
KCvsTB· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #126
T46
Brett SullivanC
COLvsMIA· 2-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #131
T46
Tristan PetersCF
CWS@CLE· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #139
72
Shohei OhtaniTWP
LADvsSD· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 2.0 TB, #1
T72
Jonathan Aranda1B
TB@KC· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 2.0 TB, #2
T72
Freddie Freeman1B
LADvsSD· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 2.0 TB, #3
T72
Kyle Stowers1B
MIA@COL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #5
T72
Liam HicksC
MIA@COL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #6
T72
Trea TurnerSS
PHIvsPIT· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #11
T72
Drake BaldwinC
ATLvsSTL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #30
T72
Jackson ChourioLF
MILvsCIN· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #35
T72
Jac CaglianoneRF
KCvsTB· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #39
T72
Michael Harris IICF
ATLvsSTL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #40
T72
Ty France1B
SD@LAD· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #48
T72
Bryan ReynoldsLF
PIT@PHI· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #50
T72
Denzer Guzman3B
LAA@SEA· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #51
T72
Jorge SolerDH
LAA@SEA· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #65
T72
Andrew BenintendiDH
CWS@CLE· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #67
T72
Chase DeLauterRF
CLEvsCWS· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #72
T72
Iván HerreraDH
STL@ATL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #76
T72
Willi Castro2B
COLvsMIA· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #77
T72
Cam CauleyCF
TEXvsDET· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #86
T72
Richie Palacios2B
TB@KC· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #88
T72
Bryson Stott2B
PHIvsPIT· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #91
T72
Colson MontgomerySS
CWS@CLE· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #96
T72
Cole CarriggCF
COLvsMIA· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #100
T72
David Hamilton3B
MILvsCIN· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #101
T72
Mike YastrzemskiLF
ATLvsSTL· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #104
T72
Jim JarvisSS
ATLvsSTL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #105
T72
Elly De La CruzSS
CIN@MIL· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #110
T72
Gabriel Arias3B
CLEvsCWS· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #114
T72
Marcell OzunaDH
PIT@PHI· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #117
T72
Austin Riley3B
ATLvsSTL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #120
T72
Randy ArozarenaLF
SEAvsLAA· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #122
T72
Spencer Torkelson1B
DET@TEX· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #127
T72
Eugenio SuárezDH
CIN@MIL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #128
T72
Nathaniel Lowe1B
CIN@MIL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #134
T72
JJ BledayLF
CIN@MIL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #135
T72
Noelvi MarteRF
CIN@MIL· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #143
T72
Jacob GonzalezSS
CWS@CLE· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #147
T72
Samad TaylorLF
SD@LAD· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #149
T72
Edouard Julien2B
COLvsMIA· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #150
T72
Steven KwanLF
CLEvsCWS· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #159
T72
Jimmy CrooksC
STL@ATL· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.2 TB, #161

Best MLB Total Bases Matchups — Thursday, July 2, 2026

Shohei Ohtani (LAD) is the top total bases matchup on the Thursday, July 2, 2026 board at 100, with Jonathan Aranda (TB) and Freddie Freeman (LAD) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by total-base upside — the best power and extra-base spots — raw power, the arm and bullpen they face, batting order, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top total bases spot: Shohei Ohtani

Shohei Ohtani (LAD) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Randy Vásquez. The lefty is racking up bases at .439 TB/PA against righties this year — and .500 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a total base in about 42% of his trips. And Randy Vásquez has been getting squared up by righties lately — .958 total bases per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .167 in 12 career PA against Randy Vásquez, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.

The rest of the top of the board

Jonathan Aranda (TB) (100) vs RHP Stephen Kolek: a strong bat at .431 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (2.000).
Freddie Freeman (LAD) (95) vs RHP Randy Vásquez: a strong bat at .450 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.958).
Junior Caminero (TB) (91) vs RHP Stephen Kolek: an excellent bat at .536 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.857), hot bat.
Kyle Stowers (MIA) (89) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: a strong bat at .440 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.389).
Liam Hicks (MIA) (87) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: a league-average bat at .364 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.389), hot bat.
Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) (80) vs RHP Roki Sasaki: a solid bat at .408 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.542).
Mookie Betts (LAD) (79) vs RHP Randy Vásquez: an excellent bat at .499 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.438), hot bat.

Arms giving up extra bases today

RHP Randy Vásquez has been getting squared up by righties — .478 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Shohei Ohtani (LAD), Freddie Freeman (LAD), and Mookie Betts (LAD).
RHP Stephen Kolek has been getting squared up by righties — .477 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Jonathan Aranda (TB), Junior Caminero (TB), and Victor Mesa Jr. (TB).
RHP Dustin May has been vulnerable to righties — .415 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Matt Olson (ATL), Ozzie Albies (ATL), and Drake Baldwin (ATL).
RHP Michael Lorenzen has been vulnerable to righties — .412 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Kyle Stowers (MIA), Liam Hicks (MIA), and Otto Lopez (MIA).

Platoon edges to target

Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .439 against righties this year.
Jonathan Aranda (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .444 against righties this year.
Freddie Freeman (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .471 against righties this year.
Kyle Stowers (MIA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .396 against righties this year.
Liam Hicks (MIA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .444 against righties this year.

How it played out

7 of the top 10 total bases matchups landed at least one total base. Top play Shohei Ohtani finished with 1 total base. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these total bases matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's total bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

What the total bases board is

The Total Bases board projects how many bases a hitter racks up vs the posted total-bases line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

His extra-base pop vs this arm.
The park.
Recent contact quality.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Total bases grades right at break-even even when we tune it to the hilt — the book prices the marginal leans efficiently. Transparency board.

How to use it

See who the model projects for extra-base damage; no systematic edge to bet.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best total bases matchup today (Thursday, July 2, 2026)?: Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Randy Vásquez. A strong bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB total bases matchups today (Thursday, July 2, 2026)?: The top total bases matchups on Thursday, July 2, 2026: Shohei Ohtani (100), Jonathan Aranda (100), Freddie Freeman (95), Junior Caminero (91), Kyle Stowers (89). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by total bases upside.
Did the top total bases matchup get a total base on Thursday, July 2, 2026?: Yes — Shohei Ohtani got 1 total base.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .439 against righties this year. Jonathan Aranda (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .444 against righties this year. Freddie Freeman (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .471 against righties this year. Kyle Stowers (MIA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .396 against righties this year. Liam Hicks (MIA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .444 against righties this year.
Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?: RHP Randy Vásquez has been getting squared up by righties — .478 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Shohei Ohtani (LAD), Freddie Freeman (LAD), and Mookie Betts (LAD). RHP Stephen Kolek has been getting squared up by righties — .477 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Jonathan Aranda (TB), Junior Caminero (TB), and Victor Mesa Jr. (TB). RHP Dustin May has been vulnerable to righties — .415 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Matt Olson (ATL), Ozzie Albies (ATL), and Drake Baldwin (ATL). RHP Michael Lorenzen has been vulnerable to righties — .412 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Kyle Stowers (MIA), Liam Hicks (MIA), and Otto Lopez (MIA).
How is the total bases matchup score calculated?: It's his bases-per-trip rate against that hand, recent form weighted heaviest, over a two-year baseline. Because this counts extra-base damage, slug matters as much as contact. Then the bullpen, order spot, and the yard. 0–100 across the slate.
What does TB/PA mean?: Total bases is 1 for a single, 2 for a double, 3 for a triple, 4 for a homer — so it rewards power, not just contact. Per plate appearance, around .37 is league average; .50+ is big-time slug. It's the cleanest power matchup we run: both the bat's slug and the arm's slug-against are real.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better. Total bases rewards the guys who do damage rather than just make contact, so this board leans slugger where the hits board leans average. It ranks today's spots, not the odds of any particular number.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a total base.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Total bases blends contact and power, so the platoon gap cuts twice: the opposite hand means both more balls in play and more of them driven. A hitter with a big split can swing a full base per game between the two matchups.
What are park factors?: Every extra foot of outfield is a base. Gaps and altitude turn singles into doubles and doubles into triples, while a small park trades the same batted ball for a home run. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a total base in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for total bases props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ total base" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against the box score. Total bases is one of the steadier props we publish — more ways to clear the line means less variance — and the top of the board beats the slate consistently. Every past date is auditable.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.