Best MLB Total Bases Matchups — Thursday, July 2, 2026
Top total bases spot: Jonathan Aranda
Jonathan Aranda (TB) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Stephen Kolek. The lefty is racking up bases at .441 TB/PA against righties this year — and .525 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a total base in about 43% of his trips. And Stephen Kolek has been getting squared up by righties lately — 2.000 total bases per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Stephen Kolek. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (98) vs RHP Randy Vásquez: a strong bat at .453 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.958).
- Junior Caminero (TB) (91) vs RHP Stephen Kolek: an excellent bat at .521 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.857), hot bat.
- Freddie Freeman (LAD) (86) vs RHP Randy Vásquez: a strong bat at .436 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.958).
- Otto Lopez (MIA) (84) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: a solid bat at .396 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.615).
- Yandy Díaz (TB) (81) vs RHP Stephen Kolek: a solid bat at .407 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.857).
- Victor Mesa Jr. (TB) (79) vs RHP Stephen Kolek: a league-average bat at .363 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (2.000).
- Liam Hicks (MIA) (77) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: a league-average bat at .367 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.389), hot bat.
Arms giving up extra bases today
- RHP Randy Vásquez has been getting squared up by righties — .478 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Shohei Ohtani (LAD), Freddie Freeman (LAD), and Max Muncy (LAD).
- RHP Stephen Kolek has been getting squared up by righties — .477 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Jonathan Aranda (TB), Junior Caminero (TB), and Yandy Díaz (TB).
- RHP Dustin May has been vulnerable to righties — .415 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Matt Olson (ATL), Drake Baldwin (ATL), and Michael Harris II (ATL).
- RHP Roki Sasaki has been vulnerable to righties — .406 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD), Manny Machado (SD), and Ty France (SD).
Platoon edges to target
- Jonathan Aranda (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .441 against righties this year.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .445 against righties this year.
- Freddie Freeman (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .461 against righties this year.
- Victor Mesa Jr. (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .344 against righties this year.
- Liam Hicks (MIA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .446 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
162 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these total bases matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's total bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.