Who has the best total bases matchup today (Friday, July 3, 2026)?

Luis García Jr. (WSH) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Mitch Keller. An elite bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB total bases matchups today (Friday, July 3, 2026)?

The top total bases matchups on Friday, July 3, 2026: Luis García Jr. (100), Mookie Betts (100), Jonathan Aranda (100), Ketel Marte (100), Nathan Lukes (98). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by total bases upside.

Did the top total bases matchup get a total base on Friday, July 3, 2026?

Yes — Luis García Jr. got 8 total bases.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Luis García Jr. (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .526 against righties this year. Jonathan Aranda (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .439 against righties this year. Ketel Marte (AZ) — righty bat vs LHP, .554 against lefties this year. Nathan Lukes (TOR) — lefty bat vs RHP, .450 against righties this year. Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .437 against righties this year.

Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?

RHP Spencer Arrighetti has been getting squared up by righties — .450 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Jonathan Aranda (TB), Cedric Mullins (TB), and Junior Caminero (TB). RHP Gerrit Cole has been getting squared up by righties — .437 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Trevor Larnach (MIN), Brooks Lee (MIN), and Josh Bell (MIN). RHP Mitch Keller has been getting squared up by righties — .424 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Luis García Jr. (WSH), CJ Abrams (WSH), and James Wood (WSH). RHP Brady Singer has been vulnerable to righties — .402 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Gunnar Henderson (BAL), Adley Rutschman (BAL), and Samuel Basallo (BAL).

How is the total bases matchup score calculated?

It's his bases-per-trip rate against that hand, recent form weighted heaviest, over a two-year baseline. Because this counts extra-base damage, slug matters as much as contact. Then the bullpen, order spot, and the yard. 0–100 across the slate.

What does TB/PA mean?

Total bases is 1 for a single, 2 for a double, 3 for a triple, 4 for a homer — so it rewards power, not just contact. Per plate appearance, around .37 is league average; .50+ is big-time slug. It's the cleanest power matchup we run: both the bat's slug and the arm's slug-against are real.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better. Total bases rewards the guys who do damage rather than just make contact, so this board leans slugger where the hits board leans average. It ranks today's spots, not the odds of any particular number.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a total base.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Total bases blends contact and power, so the platoon gap cuts twice: the opposite hand means both more balls in play and more of them driven. A hitter with a big split can swing a full base per game between the two matchups.

What are park factors?

Every extra foot of outfield is a base. Gaps and altitude turn singles into doubles and doubles into triples, while a small park trades the same batted ball for a home run. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a total base in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for total bases props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ total base" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against the box score. Total bases is one of the steadier props we publish — more ways to clear the line means less variance — and the top of the board beats the slate consistently. Every past date is auditable.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB total bases matchups — Friday, July 3, 2026

Every hitter on the Friday, July 3, 2026 slate — ranked by total-base upside — the best power and extra-base spots. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Friday, July 3, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 2/5 (40%) on our total-bases over/under, against 48% on the season.

Top 5

2/540%

season 48%

Top 10

4/1040%

season 47%

Full slate

120/23352%

season 51%

Top call Luis García Jr. came through. Mookie Betts didn't.

Each hitter below carries a 0–100 matchup score — a read on the spot in front of him, not a ranking of how good he is, so a star in a brutal matchup can sit below an average hitter in a soft one. Confidence next to it is coverage: how much real data backs the number. Every call here was graded against the box score — wins and misses both, with the record on this page. How this board is built →

Final · 17–1

STLaway

CHChomeTop matchup85 Final · 5–9

PITaway

WSHhomeTop matchup100 Final · 2–5

MINaway

NYYhomeTop matchup87 Final · 3–4

CWSaway

CLEhomeTop matchup72 Final · 3–0

BALaway

CINhomeTop matchup90 Final · 3–5

NYMaway

ATLhomeTop matchup67 Final · 3–15

SFaway

COLhomeTop matchup90 Final · 3–1

TBaway

HOUhomeTop matchup100 Final · 5–2

BOSaway

LAAhomeTop matchup73 Final · 12–5

MIAaway

ATHhomeTop matchup92 Final · 7–4

MILaway

AZhomeTop matchup100 Final · 3–4

SDaway

LADhomeTop matchup100 Final · 2–0

TORaway

SEAhomeTop matchup98

Not starting45 not in the official lineup — moved to the bottom

PosSort

#Hitter · Matchup · 279 shownScore

142 with a TBLive count — updates as games play

1
Kyle Stowers1B
MIA@ATH· 4-for-5
10TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #12
T1
Jake McCarthyLF
COLvsSF· 4-for-5
10TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #98
T1
Daylen LileLF
WSHvsPIT· 3-for-4
10TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #120
4
Luis García Jr.1B
WSHvsPIT· 2-for-4
8TBFinal
Proj 2.1 TB, #1
T4
Matt Olson1B
ATLvsNYM· 2-for-3
8TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #52
6
Kody Clemens1B
MIN@NYY· 2-for-4
6TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #36
T6
Bryan ReynoldsLF
PIT@WSH· 2-for-5
6TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #142
T6
Cole CarriggCF
COLvsSF· 2-for-4
6TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #204
T6
Ezequiel TovarSS
COLvsSF· 3-for-4
6TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #221
T6
Nick FortesC
TB@HOU· 2-for-3
6TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #223
11
Rafael Devers1B
SF@COL· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #13
T11
Nick Kurtz1B
ATHvsMIA· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #16
T11
James WoodRF
WSHvsPIT· 2-for-5
5TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #57
T11
Miguel Vargas3B
CWS@CLE· 2-for-3
5TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #62
T11
Trent GrishamCF
NYYvsMIN· 2-for-3
5TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #70
T11
Heriberto HernándezLF
MIA@ATH· 2-for-5
5TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #76
T11
Juan SotoLF
NYM@ATL· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #79
T11
Masyn WinnSS
STL@CHC· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #92
T11
Michael Harris IICF
ATLvsNYM· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #100
T11
Jackson MerrillCF
SD@LAD· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #119
T11
Nathan ChurchCF
STL@CHC· 2-for-5
5TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #179
T11
Romy GonzalezDH
BOS@LAA· 3-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #191
T11
Kyle Karros3B
COLvsSF· 3-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #197
24
Yordan AlvarezDH
HOUvsTB· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #27
T24
Junior Caminero3B
TB@HOU· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #33
T24
Samuel BasalloC
BAL@CIN· 1-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #43
T24
Jake Bauers1B
MIL@AZ· 3-for-6
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #45
T24
Ozzie Albies2B
ATLvsNYM· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #51
T24
Ben RiceDH
NYYvsMIN· 1-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #61
T24
Garrett MitchellCF
MIL@AZ· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #67
T24
José TenaDH
WSHvsPIT· 1-for-5
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #73
T24
Owen CaissieRF
MIA@ATH· 1-for-5
4TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #74
T24
Teoscar HernándezLF
LADvsSD· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #113
T24
José FermínLF
STL@CHC· 2-for-5
4TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #137
T24
Esmerlyn ValdezRF
PIT@WSH· 3-for-5
4TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #153
T24
Caleb Durbin3B
BOS@LAA· 1-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #160
T24
Jose SiriCF
LAAvsBOS· 1-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #181
T24
Jakob MarseeCF
MIA@ATH· 1-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #201
T24
Jared TrioloSS
PIT@WSH· 2-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #219
40
Brice Turang2B
MIL@AZ· 3-for-6
3TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #32
T40
Iván HerreraDH
STL@CHC· 3-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #58
T40
Hunter GoodmanC
COLvsSF· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #60
T40
Alex Bregman3B
CHCvsSTL· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #88
T40
Willson Contreras1B
BOS@LAA· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #130
T40
Blaze Jordan3B
STL@CHC· 3-for-5
3TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #141
T40
Ildemaro Vargas1B
AZvsMIL· 3-for-5
3TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #182
T40
Sean KeysDH
TOR@SEA· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #190
T40
Luke Keaschall2B
MIN@NYY· 2-for-3
3TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #215
49
Ketel Marte2B
AZvsMIL· 2-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #4
T49
Otto LopezSS
MIA@ATH· 2-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #8
T49
Luis Arraez2B
SF@COL· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #10
T49
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF
CHCvsSTL· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #18
T49
Jake Cronenworth2B
SD@LAD· 2-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #24
T49
Casey SchmittLF
SF@COL· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #25
T49
Adley RutschmanC
BAL@CIN· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #28
T49
William ContrerasC
MIL@AZ· 2-for-6
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #31
T49
Jordan WalkerRF
STL@CHC· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #46
T49
Zach NetoSS
LAAvsBOS· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #50
T49
Ceddanne RafaelaCF
BOS@LAA· 2-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #65
T49
Wilyer AbreuRF
BOS@LAA· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #68
T49
Mickey MoniakLF
COLvsSF· 2-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #75
T49
Bo Bichette3B
NYM@ATL· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #81
T49
Konnor GriffinSS
PIT@WSH· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #97
T49
Gabriel MorenoC
AZvsMIL· 2-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #99
T49
Brandon Lowe2B
PIT@WSH· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #104
T49
Carlos CortesRF
ATHvsMIA· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #110
T49
J.P. CrawfordSS
SEAvsTOR· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #114
T49
Alec Burleson1B
STL@CHC· 2-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #135
T49
Royce Lewis1B
MIN@NYY· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #143
T49
Nico Hoerner2B
CHCvsSTL· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #147
T49
Travis Bazzana2B
CLEvsCWS· 2-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #148
T49
Jeff McNeil2B
ATHvsMIA· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #149
T49
Ryan McMahon3B
NYYvsMIN· 1-for-2
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #150
T49
Vaughn Grissom2B
LAAvsBOS· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #152
T49
Nolan Arenado3B
AZvsMIL· 1-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #155
T49
Francisco AlvarezC
NYM@ATL· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #157
T49
Nick Gonzales3B
PIT@WSH· 1-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #178
T49
Xander BogaertsSS
SD@LAD· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #186
T49
Jake MangumCF
PIT@WSH· 2-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #195
T49
Nasim Nuñez2B
WSHvsPIT· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #205
T49
Andrés GiménezSS
TOR@SEA· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #217
T49
Alika WilliamsSS
ATHvsMIA· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #226
T49
Brett Baty3B
NYM@ATL· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #231
T49
Miguel Rojas2B
LADvsSD· 1-for-1
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB
85
Jackson ChourioLF
MIL@AZ· 1-for-6
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #19
T85
Heliot RamosLF
SF@COL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #20
T85
Kazuma Okamoto3B
TOR@SEA· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #21
T85
Liam HicksC
MIA@ATH· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #22
T85
Gavin Sheets1B
SD@LAD· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #23
T85
Freddie Freeman1B
LADvsSD· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #30
T85
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.1B
TOR@SEA· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #37
T85
Lawrence ButlerRF
ATHvsMIA· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #41
T85
CJ AbramsSS
WSHvsPIT· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #48
T85
Jung Hoo LeeRF
SF@COL· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #53
T85
Elly De La CruzSS
CINvsBAL· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #54
T85
JJ Wetherholt2B
STL@CHC· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #59
T85
Pete Alonso1B
BAL@CIN· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #64
T85
Michael Busch1B
CHCvsSTL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #71
T85
Yandy DíazDH
TB@HOU· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #77
T85
Corbin CarrollRF
AZvsMIL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #83
T85
Isaac Paredes3B
HOUvsTB· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #89
T85
Jorge SolerDH
LAAvsBOS· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #93
T85
Jasson DomínguezRF
NYYvsMIN· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #96
T85
Taylor WardDH
BAL@CIN· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #103
T85
Victor CaratiniC
MIN@NYY· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #109
T85
Francisco LindorSS
NYM@ATL· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #111
T85
Spencer Steer1B
CINvsBAL· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #112
T85
Cam SmithRF
HOUvsTB· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #115
T85
Max Muncy3B
LADvsSD· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #121
T85
Bryce EldridgeDH
SF@COL· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #125
T85
Dominic CanzoneDH
SEAvsTOR· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #126
T85
Noelvi MarteRF
CINvsBAL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #127
T85
Joshua Kuroda-Grauer3B
ATHvsMIA· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #128
T85
Carson BengeRF
NYM@ATL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #129
T85
Sung-Mun Song2B
SD@LAD· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #132
T85
Dalton RushingC
LADvsSD· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #134
T85
Cooper PrattSS
MIL@AZ· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #144
T85
TJ Rumfield1B
COLvsSF· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #146
T85
Jorbit Vivas3B
WSHvsPIT· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #159
T85
Braden MontgomeryRF
CWS@CLE· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #162
T85
Carson KellyC
CHCvsSTL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #163
T85
Brayan RocchioSS
CLEvsCWS· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #165
T85
Tyler FreemanRF
COLvsSF· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #169
T85
David Hamilton3B
MIL@AZ· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #170
T85
Yohendrick PiñangoLF
TOR@SEA· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #171
T85
Cole Young2B
SEAvsTOR· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #180
T85
Chase Meidroth2B
CWS@CLE· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #183
T85
JJ BledayLF
CINvsBAL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #187
T85
Victor RoblesRF
SEAvsTOR· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #189
T85
Tristan PetersCF
CWS@CLE· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #194
T85
Ben Williamson2B
TB@HOU· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #196
T85
Andruw MonasterioSS
BOS@LAA· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #200
T85
Austin HedgesC
CLEvsCWS· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #202
T85
Jacob GonzalezSS
CWS@CLE· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #206
T85
Henry BolteCF
ATHvsMIA· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #211
T85
Josh LoweLF
LAAvsBOS· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #218
T85
Rodolfo DuránC
SD@LAD· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #222
T85
Luis TorrensC
NYM@ATL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #224
T85
José CaballeroSS
NYYvsMIN· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #225
T85
Carlos NarváezC
BOS@LAA· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #229
T85
Steven KwanLF
CLEvsCWS· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.2 TB, #234
T85
Kahlil WatsonRF
CLEvsCWS· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB

Best MLB Total Bases Matchups — Friday, July 3, 2026

Luis García Jr. (WSH) is the top total bases matchup on the Friday, July 3, 2026 board at 100, with Mookie Betts (LAD) and Jonathan Aranda (TB) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by total-base upside — the best power and extra-base spots — raw power, the arm and bullpen they face, batting order, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top total bases spot: Luis García Jr.

Luis García Jr. (WSH) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Mitch Keller. The lefty is racking up bases at .526 TB/PA against righties this year — and 1.188 over the last two weeks, an elite bat that turns into a total base in about 57% of his trips. And Mitch Keller has been getting squared up by righties lately — .630 total bases per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's a fine .263 in 19 career PA against Mitch Keller. It all sets up in a neutral park.

The rest of the top of the board

Mookie Betts (LAD) (100) vs RHP Michael King: an excellent bat at .499 into an arm tough on the same side (.235), hot bat.
Jonathan Aranda (TB) (100) vs RHP Spencer Arrighetti: a strong bat at .422 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.824).
Ketel Marte (AZ) (100) vs LHP Kyle Harrison: a strong bat at .480 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.429), hot bat.
Nathan Lukes (TOR) (98) vs RHP Luis Castillo: a strong bat at .434 into an arm tough on the same side (.300).
Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) (93) vs RHP Shohei Ohtani: a solid bat at .396 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (92) vs RHP Michael King: a strong bat at .423 into an arm tough on the same side (.156).
Otto Lopez (MIA) (92) vs RHP Jack Perkins: a strong bat at .426 into an arm tough on the same side (.308).

Arms giving up extra bases today

RHP Spencer Arrighetti has been getting squared up by righties — .450 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Jonathan Aranda (TB), Cedric Mullins (TB), and Junior Caminero (TB).
RHP Gerrit Cole has been getting squared up by righties — .437 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Trevor Larnach (MIN), Brooks Lee (MIN), and Josh Bell (MIN).
RHP Mitch Keller has been getting squared up by righties — .424 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Luis García Jr. (WSH), CJ Abrams (WSH), and James Wood (WSH).
RHP Brady Singer has been vulnerable to righties — .402 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Gunnar Henderson (BAL), Adley Rutschman (BAL), and Samuel Basallo (BAL).

Platoon edges to target

Luis García Jr. (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .526 against righties this year.
Jonathan Aranda (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .439 against righties this year.
Ketel Marte (AZ) — righty bat vs LHP, .554 against lefties this year.
Nathan Lukes (TOR) — lefty bat vs RHP, .450 against righties this year.
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .437 against righties this year.

How it played out

4 of the top 10 total bases matchups landed at least one total base. Top play Luis García Jr. finished with 8 total bases. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these total bases matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's total bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

What the total bases board is

The Total Bases board projects how many bases a hitter racks up vs the posted total-bases line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

His extra-base pop vs this arm.
The park.
Recent contact quality.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Total bases grades right at break-even even when we tune it to the hilt — the book prices the marginal leans efficiently. Transparency board.

How to use it

See who the model projects for extra-base damage; no systematic edge to bet.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best total bases matchup today (Friday, July 3, 2026)?: Luis García Jr. (WSH) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Mitch Keller. An elite bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB total bases matchups today (Friday, July 3, 2026)?: The top total bases matchups on Friday, July 3, 2026: Luis García Jr. (100), Mookie Betts (100), Jonathan Aranda (100), Ketel Marte (100), Nathan Lukes (98). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by total bases upside.
Did the top total bases matchup get a total base on Friday, July 3, 2026?: Yes — Luis García Jr. got 8 total bases.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Luis García Jr. (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .526 against righties this year. Jonathan Aranda (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .439 against righties this year. Ketel Marte (AZ) — righty bat vs LHP, .554 against lefties this year. Nathan Lukes (TOR) — lefty bat vs RHP, .450 against righties this year. Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .437 against righties this year.
Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?: RHP Spencer Arrighetti has been getting squared up by righties — .450 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Jonathan Aranda (TB), Cedric Mullins (TB), and Junior Caminero (TB). RHP Gerrit Cole has been getting squared up by righties — .437 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Trevor Larnach (MIN), Brooks Lee (MIN), and Josh Bell (MIN). RHP Mitch Keller has been getting squared up by righties — .424 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Luis García Jr. (WSH), CJ Abrams (WSH), and James Wood (WSH). RHP Brady Singer has been vulnerable to righties — .402 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Gunnar Henderson (BAL), Adley Rutschman (BAL), and Samuel Basallo (BAL).
How is the total bases matchup score calculated?: It's his bases-per-trip rate against that hand, recent form weighted heaviest, over a two-year baseline. Because this counts extra-base damage, slug matters as much as contact. Then the bullpen, order spot, and the yard. 0–100 across the slate.
What does TB/PA mean?: Total bases is 1 for a single, 2 for a double, 3 for a triple, 4 for a homer — so it rewards power, not just contact. Per plate appearance, around .37 is league average; .50+ is big-time slug. It's the cleanest power matchup we run: both the bat's slug and the arm's slug-against are real.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better. Total bases rewards the guys who do damage rather than just make contact, so this board leans slugger where the hits board leans average. It ranks today's spots, not the odds of any particular number.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a total base.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Total bases blends contact and power, so the platoon gap cuts twice: the opposite hand means both more balls in play and more of them driven. A hitter with a big split can swing a full base per game between the two matchups.
What are park factors?: Every extra foot of outfield is a base. Gaps and altitude turn singles into doubles and doubles into triples, while a small park trades the same batted ball for a home run. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a total base in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for total bases props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ total base" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against the box score. Total bases is one of the steadier props we publish — more ways to clear the line means less variance — and the top of the board beats the slate consistently. Every past date is auditable.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.