Best MLB Total Bases Matchups — Friday, July 3, 2026
Top total bases spot: Trevor Larnach
Trevor Larnach (MIN) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Gerrit Cole. The lefty is racking up bases at .400 TB/PA against righties this year — and .578 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a total base in about 43% of his trips. And Gerrit Cole has been getting squared up by righties lately — .724 total bases per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's a fine .250 in 8 career PA against Gerrit Cole. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Brooks Lee (MIN) (99) vs RHP Gerrit Cole: a strong bat at .455 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.724), hot bat.
- Luis Arraez (SF) (93) vs RHP Ryan Feltner: a strong bat at .438 into an arm giving up bases to the same side (.375).
- Rafael Devers (SF) (91) vs RHP Ryan Feltner: an excellent bat at .504 into an arm giving up bases to the same side (.375), hot bat.
- Josh Bell (MIN) (84) vs RHP Gerrit Cole: a strong bat at .437 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.724).
- Gunnar Henderson (BAL) (84) vs RHP Brady Singer: a solid bat at .370 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.433).
- Kody Clemens (MIN) (84) vs RHP Gerrit Cole: a solid bat at .405 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.724).
- Jackson Chourio (MIL) (81) vs RHP Jose Cabrera: a solid bat at .412 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
Arms giving up extra bases today
- RHP Gerrit Cole has been getting squared up by righties — .437 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Trevor Larnach (MIN), Brooks Lee (MIN), and Josh Bell (MIN).
- RHP Mitch Keller has been getting squared up by righties — .424 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: James Wood (WSH), Daylen Lile (WSH), and Curtis Mead (WSH).
- RHP Brady Singer has been vulnerable to righties — .402 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Gunnar Henderson (BAL), Adley Rutschman (BAL), and Taylor Ward (BAL).
- RHP Nick Martinez has been vulnerable to righties — .387 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Yordan Alvarez (HOU), Jose Altuve (HOU), and Taylor Trammell (HOU).
Platoon edges to target
- Trevor Larnach (MIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .400 against righties this year.
- Brooks Lee (MIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .457 against righties this year.
- Luis Arraez (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .425 against righties this year.
- Rafael Devers (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .487 against righties this year.
- Josh Bell (MIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .404 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
234 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these total bases matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's total bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.