Who has the best total bases matchup today (Sunday, July 5, 2026)?

Andy Pages (LAD) — top of the board at 100, facing LHP JP Sears. A solid bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB total bases matchups today (Sunday, July 5, 2026)?

The top total bases matchups on Sunday, July 5, 2026: Andy Pages (100), Luis Arraez (100), Junior Caminero (97), Luis García Jr. (96), Casey Schmitt (94). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by total bases upside.

Did the top total bases matchup get a total base on Sunday, July 5, 2026?

No — Andy Pages didn't record a total base.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Andy Pages (LAD) — righty bat vs LHP, .430 against lefties this year. Luis Arraez (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .426 against righties this year. Luis García Jr. (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .541 against righties this year. Otto Lopez (MIA) — righty bat vs LHP, .624 against lefties this year. Rafael Devers (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .498 against righties this year.

Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?

RHP Aaron Nola has been getting squared up by righties — .447 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Bobby Witt Jr. (KC), Carter Jensen (KC), and Jac Caglianone (KC). LHP JP Sears has been getting squared up by lefties — .425 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Andy Pages (LAD), Teoscar Hernández (LAD), and Mookie Betts (LAD). RHP Javier Assad has been getting squared up by righties — .425 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: JJ Wetherholt (STL), Alec Burleson (STL), and Iván Herrera (STL). RHP Tanner Gordon has been vulnerable to righties — .418 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Luis Arraez (SF), Casey Schmitt (SF), and Heliot Ramos (SF).

How is the total bases matchup score calculated?

It's his bases-per-trip rate against that hand, recent form weighted heaviest, over a two-year baseline. Because this counts extra-base damage, slug matters as much as contact. Then the bullpen, order spot, and the yard. 0–100 across the slate.

What does TB/PA mean?

Total bases is 1 for a single, 2 for a double, 3 for a triple, 4 for a homer — so it rewards power, not just contact. Per plate appearance, around .37 is league average; .50+ is big-time slug. It's the cleanest power matchup we run: both the bat's slug and the arm's slug-against are real.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better. Total bases rewards the guys who do damage rather than just make contact, so this board leans slugger where the hits board leans average. It ranks today's spots, not the odds of any particular number.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a total base.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Total bases blends contact and power, so the platoon gap cuts twice: the opposite hand means both more balls in play and more of them driven. A hitter with a big split can swing a full base per game between the two matchups.

What are park factors?

Every extra foot of outfield is a base. Gaps and altitude turn singles into doubles and doubles into triples, while a small park trades the same batted ball for a home run. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a total base in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for total bases props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ total base" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against the box score. Total bases is one of the steadier props we publish — more ways to clear the line means less variance — and the top of the board beats the slate consistently. Every past date is auditable.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB total bases matchups — Sunday, July 5, 2026

Every hitter on the Sunday, July 5, 2026 slate — ranked by total-base upside — the best power and extra-base spots. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Sunday, July 5, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 1/5 (20%) on our total-bases over/under, against 47% on the season.

Top 5

1/520%

season 47%

Top 10

4/1040%

season 47%

Full slate

131/26250%

season 51%

Top call Luis García Jr. came through. Andy Pages didn't.

Each hitter below carries a 0–100 matchup score — a read on the spot in front of him, not a ranking of how good he is, so a star in a brutal matchup can sit below an average hitter in a soft one. Confidence next to it is coverage: how much real data backs the number. Every call here was graded against the box score — wins and misses both, with the record on this page. How this board is built →

Final · 10–9

NYMaway

ATLhomeTop matchup70 Final · 11–5

PITaway

WSHhomeTop matchup96 Final · 2–3

BALaway

CINhomeTop matchup73 Final · 6–1

MINaway

NYYhomeTop matchup84 Final · 7–6

CWSaway

CLEhomeTop matchup67 Final · 4–6

STLaway

CHChomeTop matchup84 Final · 2–5

PHIaway

KChomeTop matchup93 Final · 0–2

TBaway

HOUhomeTop matchup97 Final · 6–3

DETaway

TEXhomeTop matchup74 Final · 6–7

SFaway

COLhomeTop matchup100 Final · 3–2

MILaway

AZhomeTop matchup65 Final · 9–8

MIAaway

ATHhomeTop matchup93 Final · 0–4

TORaway

SEAhomeTop matchup62 Final · 5–2

SDaway

LADhomeTop matchup100 Final · 7–5

BOSaway

LAAhomeTop matchup72

Not starting68 not in the official lineup — moved to the bottom

PosSort

#Hitter · Matchup · 336 shownScore

175 with a TBLive count — updates as games play

1
Heriberto HernándezLF
MIA@ATH· 3-for-4
10TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #15
2
Rafael Devers1B
SF@COL· 2-for-5
8TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #10
T2
Riley GreeneLF
DET@TEX· 3-for-4
8TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #22
T2
Drew GilbertCF
SF@COL· 4-for-4
8TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #130
5
Otto LopezSS
MIA@ATH· 3-for-4
7TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #6
T5
Zach NetoSS
LAAvsBOS· 3-for-5
7TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #120
7
Luis García Jr.1B
WSHvsPIT· 2-for-5
5TBFinal
Proj 2.0 TB, #4
T7
Drake BaldwinC
ATLvsNYM· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #63
T7
Isaac Paredes3B
HOUvsTB· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #84
T7
Chase DeLauterRF
CLEvsCWS· 2-for-5
5TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #157
T7
Colson MontgomerySS
CWS@CLE· 2-for-5
5TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #172
T7
Gabriel Arias3B
CLEvsCWS· 2-for-5
5TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #175
T7
A.J. EwingCF
NYM@ATL· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #193
T7
Tristan PetersCF
CWS@CLE· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #197
T7
Jonah HeimC
ATHvsMIA· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #238
T7
Jarren DuranLF
BOS@LAA· 2-for-3
5TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #251
17
Casey SchmittLF
SF@COL· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #5
T17
Fernando Tatis Jr.RF
SD@LAD· 3-for-5
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #20
T17
Jake Burger1B
TEXvsDET· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #46
T17
Manny Machado3B
SD@LAD· 1-for-2
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #48
T17
Jordan WalkerRF
STL@CHC· 1-for-2
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #60
T17
Brandon Lowe2B
PIT@WSH· 1-for-5
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #66
T17
Bo Bichette3B
NYM@ATL· 3-for-5
4TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #88
T17
Bryan ReynoldsLF
PIT@WSH· 1-for-5
4TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #94
T17
Ezequiel DuranSS
TEXvsDET· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #97
T17
Christian Walker1B
HOUvsTB· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #104
T17
TJ Rumfield1B
COLvsSF· 3-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #109
T17
Tyrone TaylorLF
NYM@ATL· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #114
T17
Kyle TeelC
CWS@CLE· 1-for-5
4TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #117
T17
Willson Contreras1B
BOS@LAA· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #122
T17
Jake Bauers1B
MIL@AZ· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #133
T17
Kyle Karros3B
COLvsSF· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #135
T17
Bryson Stott2B
PHI@KC· 2-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #154
T17
Leo Jiménez3B
MIA@ATH· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #160
T17
Nick Gonzales3B
PIT@WSH· 3-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #186
T17
Geraldo PerdomoSS
AZvsMIL· 3-for-5
4TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #195
T17
Brooks Lee3B
MIN@NYY· 3-for-5
4TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #202
T17
Mitch GarverC
SEAvsTOR· 1-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #208
T17
Spencer Steer1B
CINvsBAL· 1-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #216
T17
Dylan CrewsRF
WSHvsPIT· 1-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #231
41
Jake McCarthyLF
COLvsSF· 1-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #38
T41
Austin MartinRF
MIN@NYY· 2-for-3
3TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #54
T41
Jackson ChourioLF
MIL@AZ· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #74
T41
Royce Lewis1B
MIN@NYY· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #99
T41
Taylor WardDH
BAL@CIN· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #118
T41
Masataka YoshidaDH
BOS@LAA· 3-for-5
3TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #142
T41
Mauricio DubónLF
ATLvsNYM· 3-for-5
3TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #145
T41
Brian NavarretoC
MIA@ATH· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #191
T41
Josh Smith2B
TEXvsDET· 1-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #215
T41
Blaze Alexander3B
BAL@CIN· 3-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #240
T41
Isaac CollinsLF
KCvsPHI· 2-for-3
3TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #247
T41
Jo AdellRF
LAAvsBOS· 3-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #250
T41
Brett Baty3B
NYM@ATL· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #256
54
Bobby Witt Jr.SS
KCvsPHI· 2-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #8
T54
Trent GrishamCF
NYYvsMIN· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #13
T54
JJ Wetherholt2B
STL@CHC· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #14
T54
Alec Burleson1B
STL@CHC· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #23
T54
Liam HicksC
MIA@ATH· 2-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #24
T54
Kevin McGonigleSS
DET@TEX· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #29
T54
Hunter GoodmanC
COLvsSF· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #32
T54
Matt Olson1B
ATLvsNYM· 1-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #35
T54
Ozzie Albies2B
ATLvsNYM· 1-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #37
T54
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF
CHCvsSTL· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #47
T54
Michael Harris IICF
ATLvsNYM· 2-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #55
T54
Lane ThomasLF
KCvsPHI· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #59
T54
Javier Sanoja3B
MIA@ATH· 1-for-6
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #62
T54
Miguel Vargas3B
CWS@CLE· 1-for-2
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #67
T54
Xavier Edwards2B
MIA@ATH· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #69
T54
Alex Bregman3B
CHCvsSTL· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #76
T54
Juan SotoLF
NYM@ATL· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #81
T54
Sal Stewart1B
CINvsBAL· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #105
T54
Lawrence ButlerRF
ATHvsMIA· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #108
T54
Esteury RuizRF
MIA@ATH· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #110
T54
Konnor GriffinSS
PIT@WSH· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #113
T54
Carlos CortesRF
ATHvsMIA· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #124
T54
Curtis Mead3B
WSHvsPIT· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #125
T54
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.1B
TOR@SEA· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #129
T54
Victor CaratiniC
MIN@NYY· 1-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #149
T54
José TenaDH
WSHvsPIT· 2-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #152
T54
Salvador PerezDH
KCvsPHI· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #155
T54
Gary SánchezC
MIL@AZ· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #174
T54
Travis Bazzana2B
CLEvsCWS· 1-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #176
T54
Gabriel Rincones Jr.RF
PHI@KC· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #181
T54
Luke RaleyRF
SEAvsTOR· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #190
T54
Corbin CarrollRF
AZvsMIL· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #192
T54
Austin Riley3B
ATLvsNYM· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #199
T54
Tyler StephensonC
CINvsBAL· 2-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #211
T54
Brett SullivanC
COLvsSF· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #244
T54
Tsung-Che ChengSS
BOS@LAA· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #248
T54
Daniel SchneemannCF
CLEvsCWS· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #260
91
Heliot RamosLF
SF@COL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #9
T91
Ben RiceDH
NYYvsMIN· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #18
T91
Carter JensenC
KCvsPHI· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #28
T91
Anthony Seigler2B
BOS@LAA· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #30
T91
Kerry CarpenterRF
DET@TEX· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #33
T91
Brandon MarshLF
PHI@KC· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #39
T91
Miguel Rojas2B
LADvsSD· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #40
T91
Shohei OhtaniTWP
LADvsSD· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #41
T91
Francisco LindorSS
NYM@ATL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #43
T91
Jung Hoo LeeRF
SF@COL· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #45
T91
Byron BuxtonCF
MIN@NYY· 1-for-1
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #51
T91
Jonathan Aranda1B
TB@HOU· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #52
T91
Joc PedersonDH
TEXvsDET· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #56
T91
Brice Turang2B
MIL@AZ· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #58
T91
Willy AdamesSS
SF@COL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #61
T91
Nathan LukesRF
TOR@SEA· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #64
T91
Jose Altuve2B
HOUvsTB· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #65
T91
Gavin Sheets1B
SD@LAD· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #72
T91
Zack Gelof3B
ATHvsMIA· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #78
T91
Dillon DinglerC
DET@TEX· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #82
T91
Randy ArozarenaLF
SEAvsTOR· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #83
T91
Cody BellingerLF
NYYvsMIN· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #85
T91
Carson KellyC
CHCvsSTL· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #86
T91
CJ AbramsSS
WSHvsPIT· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #87
T91
Josh BellDH
MIN@NYY· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #90
T91
Ketel Marte2B
AZvsMIL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #91
T91
Jazz Chisholm Jr.2B
NYYvsMIN· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #93
T91
Ryan O'HearnRF
PIT@WSH· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #95
T91
Chandler SimpsonLF
TB@HOU· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #100
T91
Masyn WinnSS
STL@CHC· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #102
T91
Andrew Vaughn1B
MIL@AZ· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #112
T91
Adley RutschmanC
BAL@CIN· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #115
T91
Cal RaleighC
SEAvsTOR· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #116
T91
Andrew BenintendiDH
CWS@CLE· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #119
T91
Brandon NimmoRF
TEXvsDET· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #126
T91
Joshua Kuroda-Grauer3B
ATHvsMIA· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #128
T91
Michael Massey2B
KCvsPHI· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #132
T91
Ben Williamson2B
TB@HOU· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #134
T91
Dominic SmithDH
ATLvsNYM· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #137
T91
Nathan ChurchCF
STL@CHC· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #139
T91
Kahlil WatsonRF
CLEvsCWS· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #140
T91
Denzer Guzman3B
LAAvsBOS· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #141
T91
Jackson MerrillCF
SD@LAD· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #143
T91
Coby Mayo3B
BAL@CIN· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #144
T91
Ceddanne RafaelaCF
BOS@LAA· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #146
T91
Cam SmithRF
HOUvsTB· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #150
T91
Endy RodríguezC
PIT@WSH· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #151
T91
Josh Naylor1B
SEAvsTOR· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #153
T91
Alex Freeland2B
LADvsSD· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #156
T91
Nico Hoerner2B
CHCvsSTL· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #158
T91
Michael Busch1B
CHCvsSTL· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #165
T91
Jakob MarseeCF
MIA@ATH· 1-for-1
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #170
T91
Dansby SwansonSS
CHCvsSTL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #179
T91
Sung-Mun Song2B
SD@LAD· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #183
T91
Troy JohnstonRF
COLvsSF· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #185
T91
Spencer Torkelson1B
DET@TEX· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #189
T91
Austin WellsC
NYYvsMIN· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #200
T91
Edwin Arroyo2B
CINvsBAL· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #204
T91
Justin CrawfordCF
PHI@KC· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #206
T91
Chase Meidroth2B
CWS@CLE· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #212
T91
Ryan KreidlerSS
MIN@NYY· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #217
T91
Tyler CallihanLF
PIT@WSH· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #218
T91
James OutmanCF
DET@TEX· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #225
T91
Jake MangumCF
PIT@WSH· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #226
T91
Cooper IngleC
CLEvsCWS· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #228
T91
Luke Keaschall2B
MIN@NYY· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #232
T91
Ernie Clement2B
TOR@SEA· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #236
T91
Patrick BaileyC
CLEvsCWS· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #237
T91
Joey OrtizSS
MIL@AZ· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #242
T91
Tommy TroyLF
AZvsMIL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #243
T91
Christian VázquezC
HOUvsTB· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #245
T91
Luis CampusanoC
SD@LAD· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #249
T91
Edouard Julien2B
COLvsSF· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #252
T91
Victor RoblesRF
SEAvsTOR· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #253
T91
Nicky Lopez2B
TEXvsDET· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #255
T91
Brian ServenC
ATHvsMIA· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #257
T91
Logan O'HoppeC
LAAvsBOS· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #265
T91
Pavin Smith1B
AZvsMIL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.2 TB, #267
T91
Steven KwanLF
CLEvsCWS· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.2 TB, #268
T91
Randal GrichukDH
CWS@CLE· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB
T91
Jonny DeLucaRF
TB@HOU· 1-for-1
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB
T91
Willi Castro2B
COLvsSF· 1-for-1
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB
T91
Brayan RocchioSS
CLEvsCWS· 1-for-1
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB
T91
Kyle TuckerRF
LADvsSD· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB
T91
Henry DavisC
PIT@WSH· 1-for-1
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB

Best MLB Total Bases Matchups — Sunday, July 5, 2026

Andy Pages (LAD) is the top total bases matchup on the Sunday, July 5, 2026 board at 100, with Luis Arraez (SF) and Junior Caminero (TB) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by total-base upside — the best power and extra-base spots — raw power, the arm and bullpen they face, batting order, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top total bases spot: Andy Pages

Andy Pages (LAD) tops the board at 100, facing LHP JP Sears. The righty is racking up bases at .430 TB/PA against lefties this year — and .476 over the last two weeks, a solid bat that turns into a total base in about 40% of his trips. And JP Sears has been getting squared up by lefties lately — .553 total bases per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against JP Sears. It all sets up in a neutral park.

The rest of the top of the board

Luis Arraez (SF) (100) vs RHP Tanner Gordon: a strong bat at .431 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.450).
Junior Caminero (TB) (97) vs RHP Peter Lambert: an excellent bat at .531 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.524).
Luis García Jr. (WSH) (96) vs RHP Bubba Chandler: an elite bat at .579 into an arm tough on the same side (.294).
Casey Schmitt (SF) (94) vs RHP Tanner Gordon: a solid bat at .397 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (1.750).
Otto Lopez (MIA) (93) vs LHP Gage Jump: a strong bat at .426 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.478), hot bat.
Trea Turner (PHI) (93) vs RHP Luinder Avila: a strong bat at .437 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.667), hot bat.
Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) (92) vs RHP Aaron Nola: a strong bat at .427 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (1.100), due to bounce back.

Arms giving up extra bases today

RHP Aaron Nola has been getting squared up by righties — .447 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Bobby Witt Jr. (KC), Carter Jensen (KC), and Jac Caglianone (KC).
LHP JP Sears has been getting squared up by lefties — .425 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Andy Pages (LAD), Teoscar Hernández (LAD), and Mookie Betts (LAD).
RHP Javier Assad has been getting squared up by righties — .425 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: JJ Wetherholt (STL), Alec Burleson (STL), and Iván Herrera (STL).
RHP Tanner Gordon has been vulnerable to righties — .418 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Luis Arraez (SF), Casey Schmitt (SF), and Heliot Ramos (SF).

Platoon edges to target

Andy Pages (LAD) — righty bat vs LHP, .430 against lefties this year.
Luis Arraez (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .426 against righties this year.
Luis García Jr. (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .541 against righties this year.
Otto Lopez (MIA) — righty bat vs LHP, .624 against lefties this year.
Rafael Devers (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .498 against righties this year.

How it played out

6 of the top 10 total bases matchups landed at least one total base. Top play Andy Pages finished with 0 total bases. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these total bases matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's total bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

What the total bases board is

The Total Bases board projects how many bases a hitter racks up vs the posted total-bases line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

His extra-base pop vs this arm.
The park.
Recent contact quality.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Total bases grades right at break-even even when we tune it to the hilt — the book prices the marginal leans efficiently. Transparency board.

How to use it

See who the model projects for extra-base damage; no systematic edge to bet.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best total bases matchup today (Sunday, July 5, 2026)?: Andy Pages (LAD) — top of the board at 100, facing LHP JP Sears. A solid bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB total bases matchups today (Sunday, July 5, 2026)?: The top total bases matchups on Sunday, July 5, 2026: Andy Pages (100), Luis Arraez (100), Junior Caminero (97), Luis García Jr. (96), Casey Schmitt (94). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by total bases upside.
Did the top total bases matchup get a total base on Sunday, July 5, 2026?: No — Andy Pages didn't record a total base.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Andy Pages (LAD) — righty bat vs LHP, .430 against lefties this year. Luis Arraez (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .426 against righties this year. Luis García Jr. (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .541 against righties this year. Otto Lopez (MIA) — righty bat vs LHP, .624 against lefties this year. Rafael Devers (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .498 against righties this year.
Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?: RHP Aaron Nola has been getting squared up by righties — .447 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Bobby Witt Jr. (KC), Carter Jensen (KC), and Jac Caglianone (KC). LHP JP Sears has been getting squared up by lefties — .425 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Andy Pages (LAD), Teoscar Hernández (LAD), and Mookie Betts (LAD). RHP Javier Assad has been getting squared up by righties — .425 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: JJ Wetherholt (STL), Alec Burleson (STL), and Iván Herrera (STL). RHP Tanner Gordon has been vulnerable to righties — .418 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Luis Arraez (SF), Casey Schmitt (SF), and Heliot Ramos (SF).
How is the total bases matchup score calculated?: It's his bases-per-trip rate against that hand, recent form weighted heaviest, over a two-year baseline. Because this counts extra-base damage, slug matters as much as contact. Then the bullpen, order spot, and the yard. 0–100 across the slate.
What does TB/PA mean?: Total bases is 1 for a single, 2 for a double, 3 for a triple, 4 for a homer — so it rewards power, not just contact. Per plate appearance, around .37 is league average; .50+ is big-time slug. It's the cleanest power matchup we run: both the bat's slug and the arm's slug-against are real.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better. Total bases rewards the guys who do damage rather than just make contact, so this board leans slugger where the hits board leans average. It ranks today's spots, not the odds of any particular number.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a total base.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Total bases blends contact and power, so the platoon gap cuts twice: the opposite hand means both more balls in play and more of them driven. A hitter with a big split can swing a full base per game between the two matchups.
What are park factors?: Every extra foot of outfield is a base. Gaps and altitude turn singles into doubles and doubles into triples, while a small park trades the same batted ball for a home run. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a total base in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for total bases props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ total base" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against the box score. Total bases is one of the steadier props we publish — more ways to clear the line means less variance — and the top of the board beats the slate consistently. Every past date is auditable.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.