Best MLB Total Bases Matchups — Sunday, July 5, 2026
Top total bases spot: Luis García Jr.
Luis García Jr. (WSH) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Bubba Chandler. The lefty is racking up bases at .548 TB/PA against righties this year — and 1.243 over the last two weeks, an elite bat that turns into a total base in about 61% of his trips. And Bubba Chandler has been vulnerable to righties lately — .388 total bases per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 2 career PA against Bubba Chandler, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Heliot Ramos (SF) (93) vs RHP Tanner Gordon: a strong bat at .432 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (1.750).
- Junior Caminero (TB) (87) vs RHP Peter Lambert: an excellent bat at .515 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.524).
- Rafael Devers (SF) (85) vs RHP Tanner Gordon: an excellent bat at .513 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.450), hot bat.
- Luis Arraez (SF) (83) vs RHP Tanner Gordon: a strong bat at .425 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.450).
- Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) (83) vs RHP Aaron Nola: a strong bat at .430 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (1.100), due to bounce back.
- Trea Turner (PHI) (81) vs RHP Luinder Avila: a strong bat at .445 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.667), hot bat.
- Andy Pages (LAD) (80) vs LHP JP Sears: a solid bat at .401 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.553).
Arms giving up extra bases today
- RHP Aaron Nola has been getting squared up by righties — .447 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Bobby Witt Jr. (KC), Carter Jensen (KC), and Lane Thomas (KC).
- RHP Tanner Gordon has been getting squared up by righties — .430 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Heliot Ramos (SF), Rafael Devers (SF), and Luis Arraez (SF).
- LHP JP Sears has been getting squared up by lefties — .425 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Andy Pages (LAD), Mookie Betts (LAD), and Shohei Ohtani (LAD).
- RHP Javier Assad has been getting squared up by righties — .425 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: JJ Wetherholt (STL), Iván Herrera (STL), and Jordan Walker (STL).
Platoon edges to target
- Luis García Jr. (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .548 against righties this year.
- Rafael Devers (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .500 against righties this year.
- Luis Arraez (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .428 against righties this year.
- Andy Pages (LAD) — righty bat vs LHP, .434 against lefties this year.
- Bryce Harper (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .544 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
270 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these total bases matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's total bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.