Who has the best total bases matchup today (Monday, July 6, 2026)?

Luis García Jr. (WSH) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Mike Burrows. An elite bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB total bases matchups today (Monday, July 6, 2026)?

The top total bases matchups on Monday, July 6, 2026: Luis García Jr. (100), Andy Pages (100), Heliot Ramos (93), Mookie Betts (83), Junior Caminero (82). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by total bases upside.

Did the top total bases matchup get a total base on Monday, July 6, 2026?

Yes — Luis García Jr. got 2 total bases.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Luis García Jr. (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .552 against righties this year. Andy Pages (LAD) — righty bat vs LHP, .413 against lefties this year. Mookie Betts (LAD) — righty bat vs LHP, .306 against lefties this year. Michael Harris II (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .510 against righties this year. Teoscar Hernández (LAD) — righty bat vs LHP, .328 against lefties this year.

Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?

LHP Kyle Freeland has been getting squared up by lefties — .489 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Andy Pages (LAD), Mookie Betts (LAD), and Teoscar Hernández (LAD). RHP Walker Buehler has been getting squared up by righties — .463 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Gabriel Moreno (AZ), Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (AZ), and Ketel Marte (AZ). RHP Kevin Gausman has been getting squared up by righties — .437 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Heliot Ramos (SF), Casey Schmitt (SF), and Rafael Devers (SF). RHP Dustin May has been getting squared up by righties — .424 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Brice Turang (MIL), Christian Yelich (MIL), and Jackson Chourio (MIL).

How is the total bases matchup score calculated?

It's his bases-per-trip rate against that hand, recent form weighted heaviest, over a two-year baseline. Because this counts extra-base damage, slug matters as much as contact. Then the bullpen, order spot, and the yard. 0–100 across the slate.

What does TB/PA mean?

Total bases is 1 for a single, 2 for a double, 3 for a triple, 4 for a homer — so it rewards power, not just contact. Per plate appearance, around .37 is league average; .50+ is big-time slug. It's the cleanest power matchup we run: both the bat's slug and the arm's slug-against are real.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better. Total bases rewards the guys who do damage rather than just make contact, so this board leans slugger where the hits board leans average. It ranks today's spots, not the odds of any particular number.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a total base.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Total bases blends contact and power, so the platoon gap cuts twice: the opposite hand means both more balls in play and more of them driven. A hitter with a big split can swing a full base per game between the two matchups.

What are park factors?

Every extra foot of outfield is a base. Gaps and altitude turn singles into doubles and doubles into triples, while a small park trades the same batted ball for a home run. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a total base in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for total bases props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ total base" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against the box score. Total bases is one of the steadier props we publish — more ways to clear the line means less variance — and the top of the board beats the slate consistently. Every past date is auditable.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB total bases matchups — Monday, July 6, 2026

Every hitter on the Monday, July 6, 2026 slate — ranked by total-base upside — the best power and extra-base spots. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Monday, July 6, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 2/5 (40%) on our total-bases over/under, against 47% on the season.

Top 5

2/540%

season 47%

Top 10

4/1040%

season 46%

Full slate

79/14256%

season 51%

Top call Luis García Jr. came through. Andy Pages didn't.

Each hitter below carries a 0–100 matchup score — a read on the spot in front of him, not a ranking of how good he is, so a star in a brutal matchup can sit below an average hitter in a soft one. Confidence next to it is coverage: how much real data backs the number. Every call here was graded against the box score — wins and misses both, with the record on this page. How this board is built →

Final · 1–15

PHIaway

KChomeTop matchup67 Final · 5–1

NYYaway

TBhomeTop matchup82 Final · 11–12

HOUaway

WSHhomeTop matchup100 Final · 7–6

NYMaway

ATLhomeTop matchup77 Final · 4–3

MILaway

STLhomeTop matchup69 Final · 8–0

AZaway

SDhomeTop matchup73 Final · 1–10

TORaway

SFhomeTop matchup93 Final · 7–8

COLaway

LADhomeTop matchup100

Not starting41 not in the official lineup — moved to the bottom

PosSort

#Hitter · Matchup · 185 shownScore

97 with a TBLive count — updates as games play

1
Heliot RamosLF
SFvsTOR· 3-for-5
11TBFinal
Proj 2.0 TB, #3
2
Tyler TolbertSS
KCvsPHI· 5-for-5
9TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #118
3
Matt Olson1B
ATLvsNYM· 2-for-5
8TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #22
T3
José CaballeroSS
NYY@TB· 2-for-3
8TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #136
5
Salvador PerezDH
KCvsPHI· 3-for-4
7TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #61
T5
Curtis Mead3B
WSHvsHOU· 3-for-5
7TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #72
7
Shohei OhtaniTWP
LADvsCOL· 3-for-4
6TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #9
T7
CJ AbramsSS
WSHvsHOU· 3-for-5
6TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #44
T7
Carson BengeRF
NYM@ATL· 2-for-4
6TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #97
10
Lane ThomasLF
KCvsPHI· 2-for-3
5TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #57
T10
Yainer DiazC
HOU@WSH· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #81
T10
Geraldo PerdomoSS
AZ@SD· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #87
T10
Cole CarriggCF
COL@LAD· 3-for-5
5TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #90
T10
Dalton RushingC
LADvsCOL· 3-for-5
5TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #103
T10
Brice MatthewsCF
HOU@WSH· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #126
T10
Max KeplerLF
AZ@SD· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #134
17
Michael Harris IICF
ATLvsNYM· 3-for-6
4TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #6
T17
Jose Altuve2B
HOU@WSH· 1-for-5
4TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #14
T17
Ben RiceDH
NYY@TB· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #20
T17
Trea TurnerSS
PHI@KC· 3-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #24
T17
Ozzie Albies2B
ATLvsNYM· 2-for-6
4TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #26
T17
James WoodRF
WSHvsHOU· 1-for-2
4TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #27
T17
Kazuma Okamoto3B
TOR@SF· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #45
T17
Juan SotoLF
NYM@ATL· 1-for-2
4TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #56
T17
Nolan Arenado3B
AZ@SD· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #60
T17
Luke MaileC
KCvsPHI· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #125
T17
Ezequiel TovarSS
COL@LAD· 1-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #139
28
Christian Walker1B
HOU@WSH· 2-for-5
3TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #36
T28
Ketel Marte2B
AZ@SD· 1-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #42
T28
Kyle TuckerRF
LADvsCOL· 3-for-5
3TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #54
T28
José FermínLF
STLvsMIL· 2-for-3
3TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #95
T28
Nick Loftin3B
KCvsPHI· 3-for-5
3TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #98
T28
Braden ShewmakeSS
HOU@WSH· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #106
T28
David Hamilton3B
MIL@STL· 2-for-3
3TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #120
T28
Nasim Nuñez2B
WSHvsHOU· 3-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #135
36
Luis García Jr.1B
WSHvsHOU· 1-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 2.0 TB, #1
T36
Gabriel MorenoC
AZ@SD· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #13
T36
Jake Cronenworth2B
SDvsAZ· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #28
T36
Bo Bichette3B
NYM@ATL· 2-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #37
T36
Max Muncy3B
LADvsCOL· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #48
T36
Kyle Karros3B
COL@LAD· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #49
T36
Alec Bohm3B
PHI@KC· 1-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #50
T36
Drake BaldwinC
ATLvsNYM· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #58
T36
Bobby Witt Jr.SS
KCvsPHI· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #63
T36
Garrett MitchellCF
MIL@STL· 2-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #65
T36
Jackson MerrillCF
SDvsAZ· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #71
T36
Cam SmithRF
HOU@WSH· 2-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #74
T36
Victor BericotoLF
SFvsTOR· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #79
T36
Nelson VelázquezLF
STLvsMIL· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #80
T36
Francisco AlvarezC
NYM@ATL· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #82
T36
Mauricio DubónLF
ATLvsNYM· 1-for-6
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #84
T36
Jac CaglianoneRF
KCvsPHI· 2-for-6
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #88
T36
Corbin CarrollRF
AZ@SD· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #93
T36
Bryson Stott2B
PHI@KC· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #94
T36
Sal FrelickRF
MIL@STL· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #102
T36
Tyler FreemanRF
COL@LAD· 2-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #111
T36
Richie Palacios2B
TBvsNYY· 2-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #113
T36
Masyn WinnSS
STLvsMIL· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #116
T36
Starling MarteRF
KCvsPHI· 2-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #124
T36
Luis TorrensC
NYM@ATL· 1-for-1
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB
61
Teoscar HernándezLF
LADvsCOL· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #7
T61
Yordan AlvarezDH
HOU@WSH· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #10
T61
Brice Turang2B
MIL@STL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #16
T61
Freddie Freeman1B
LADvsCOL· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #18
T61
Ernie Clement2B
TOR@SF· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #31
T61
Manny Machado3B
SDvsAZ· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #32
T61
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.LF
AZ@SD· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #34
T61
Gavin Sheets1B
SDvsAZ· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #35
T61
Luis Arraez2B
SFvsTOR· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #38
T61
Willi Castro2B
COL@LAD· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #46
T61
Jonny DeLucaRF
TBvsNYY· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #51
T61
Jake Bauers1B
MIL@STL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #55
T61
Nathan LukesRF
TOR@SF· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #64
T61
Chandler SimpsonLF
TBvsNYY· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #68
T61
Jake McCarthyLF
COL@LAD· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #76
T61
Ty France1B
SDvsAZ· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #78
T61
Dominic SmithDH
ATLvsNYM· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #85
T61
Jung Hoo LeeRF
SFvsTOR· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #91
T61
Derek HillCF
PHI@KC· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #99
T61
Tommy TroyLF
AZ@SD· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #100
T61
Samad TaylorLF
SDvsAZ· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #104
T61
J.T. RealmutoC
PHI@KC· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #108
T61
Jared Young1B
NYM@ATL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #110
T61
Jim JarvisSS
ATLvsNYM· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #114
T61
Mike YastrzemskiLF
ATLvsNYM· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #115
T61
Nathan ChurchCF
STLvsMIL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #123
T61
Jacob YoungCF
WSHvsHOU· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #127
T61
Drew MillasC
WSHvsHOU· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #130
T61
Bryce EldridgeDH
SFvsTOR· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #132
T61
Brett Baty3B
NYM@ATL· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #137
T61
Cooper PrattSS
MIL@STL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #138
T61
Ronny MauricioSS
NYM@ATL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #141
T61
Pedro PagésC
STLvsMIL· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #142
T61
Gabriel Rincones Jr.RF
PHI@KC· 1-for-1
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB
T61
Garrett StubbsC
PHI@KC· 1-for-1
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB
T61
Michael Massey2B
KCvsPHI· 1-for-1
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB
T61
Isaac CollinsLF
KCvsPHI· 1-for-1
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB

Best MLB Total Bases Matchups — Monday, July 6, 2026

Luis García Jr. (WSH) is the top total bases matchup on the Monday, July 6, 2026 board at 100, with Andy Pages (LAD) and Heliot Ramos (SF) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by total-base upside — the best power and extra-base spots — raw power, the arm and bullpen they face, batting order, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top total bases spot: Luis García Jr.

Luis García Jr. (WSH) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Mike Burrows. The lefty is racking up bases at .552 TB/PA against righties this year — and 1.146 over the last two weeks, an elite bat that turns into a total base in about 60% of his trips. And Mike Burrows has been getting squared up by righties lately — .435 total bases per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Mike Burrows. It all sets up in a neutral park.

The rest of the top of the board

Andy Pages (LAD) (100) vs LHP Kyle Freeland: a solid bat at .392 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.718).
Heliot Ramos (SF) (93) vs RHP Kevin Gausman: a solid bat at .418 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.800).
Mookie Betts (LAD) (83) vs LHP Kyle Freeland: a league-average bat at .353 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.718).
Junior Caminero (TB) (82) vs RHP Cam Schlittler: an excellent bat at .522 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.722).
Michael Harris II (ATL) (77) vs RHP Freddy Peralta: a strong bat at .420 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.385), hot bat.
Teoscar Hernández (LAD) (75) vs LHP Kyle Freeland: a solid bat at .383 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.718), due to bounce back.
Casey Schmitt (SF) (74) vs RHP Kevin Gausman: a solid bat at .371 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.800).

Arms giving up extra bases today

LHP Kyle Freeland has been getting squared up by lefties — .489 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Andy Pages (LAD), Mookie Betts (LAD), and Teoscar Hernández (LAD).
RHP Walker Buehler has been getting squared up by righties — .463 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Gabriel Moreno (AZ), Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (AZ), and Ketel Marte (AZ).
RHP Kevin Gausman has been getting squared up by righties — .437 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Heliot Ramos (SF), Casey Schmitt (SF), and Rafael Devers (SF).
RHP Dustin May has been getting squared up by righties — .424 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Brice Turang (MIL), Christian Yelich (MIL), and Jackson Chourio (MIL).

Platoon edges to target

Luis García Jr. (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .552 against righties this year.
Andy Pages (LAD) — righty bat vs LHP, .413 against lefties this year.
Mookie Betts (LAD) — righty bat vs LHP, .306 against lefties this year.
Michael Harris II (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .510 against righties this year.
Teoscar Hernández (LAD) — righty bat vs LHP, .328 against lefties this year.

How it played out

6 of the top 10 total bases matchups landed at least one total base. Top play Luis García Jr. finished with 2 total bases. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these total bases matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's total bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

What the total bases board is

The Total Bases board projects how many bases a hitter racks up vs the posted total-bases line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

His extra-base pop vs this arm.
The park.
Recent contact quality.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Total bases grades right at break-even even when we tune it to the hilt — the book prices the marginal leans efficiently. Transparency board.

How to use it

See who the model projects for extra-base damage; no systematic edge to bet.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best total bases matchup today (Monday, July 6, 2026)?: Luis García Jr. (WSH) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Mike Burrows. An elite bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB total bases matchups today (Monday, July 6, 2026)?: The top total bases matchups on Monday, July 6, 2026: Luis García Jr. (100), Andy Pages (100), Heliot Ramos (93), Mookie Betts (83), Junior Caminero (82). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by total bases upside.
Did the top total bases matchup get a total base on Monday, July 6, 2026?: Yes — Luis García Jr. got 2 total bases.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Luis García Jr. (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .552 against righties this year. Andy Pages (LAD) — righty bat vs LHP, .413 against lefties this year. Mookie Betts (LAD) — righty bat vs LHP, .306 against lefties this year. Michael Harris II (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .510 against righties this year. Teoscar Hernández (LAD) — righty bat vs LHP, .328 against lefties this year.
Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?: LHP Kyle Freeland has been getting squared up by lefties — .489 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Andy Pages (LAD), Mookie Betts (LAD), and Teoscar Hernández (LAD). RHP Walker Buehler has been getting squared up by righties — .463 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Gabriel Moreno (AZ), Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (AZ), and Ketel Marte (AZ). RHP Kevin Gausman has been getting squared up by righties — .437 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Heliot Ramos (SF), Casey Schmitt (SF), and Rafael Devers (SF). RHP Dustin May has been getting squared up by righties — .424 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Brice Turang (MIL), Christian Yelich (MIL), and Jackson Chourio (MIL).
How is the total bases matchup score calculated?: It's his bases-per-trip rate against that hand, recent form weighted heaviest, over a two-year baseline. Because this counts extra-base damage, slug matters as much as contact. Then the bullpen, order spot, and the yard. 0–100 across the slate.
What does TB/PA mean?: Total bases is 1 for a single, 2 for a double, 3 for a triple, 4 for a homer — so it rewards power, not just contact. Per plate appearance, around .37 is league average; .50+ is big-time slug. It's the cleanest power matchup we run: both the bat's slug and the arm's slug-against are real.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better. Total bases rewards the guys who do damage rather than just make contact, so this board leans slugger where the hits board leans average. It ranks today's spots, not the odds of any particular number.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a total base.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Total bases blends contact and power, so the platoon gap cuts twice: the opposite hand means both more balls in play and more of them driven. A hitter with a big split can swing a full base per game between the two matchups.
What are park factors?: Every extra foot of outfield is a base. Gaps and altitude turn singles into doubles and doubles into triples, while a small park trades the same batted ball for a home run. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a total base in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for total bases props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ total base" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against the box score. Total bases is one of the steadier props we publish — more ways to clear the line means less variance — and the top of the board beats the slate consistently. Every past date is auditable.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.