Best MLB Total Bases Matchups — Saturday, July 4, 2026
Top total bases spot: Luis Arraez
Luis Arraez (SF) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Tomoyuki Sugano. The lefty is racking up bases at .425 TB/PA against righties this year — and .567 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a total base in about 42% of his trips. And Tomoyuki Sugano has been getting squared up by righties lately — .656 total bases per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Tomoyuki Sugano. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Rafael Devers (SF) (96) vs RHP Tomoyuki Sugano: an excellent bat at .491 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.656), hot bat.
- Luis García Jr. (WSH) (93) vs RHP Braxton Ashcraft: an elite bat at .574 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.455), hot bat.
- Julio Rodríguez (SEA) (82) vs RHP Shane Bieber: a solid bat at .392 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.667), hot bat.
- Liam Hicks (MIA) (81) vs RHP Aaron Civale: a league-average bat at .367 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.684), hot bat.
- Kyle Stowers (MIA) (77) vs RHP Aaron Civale: a solid bat at .400 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.684).
- Mookie Betts (LAD) (75) vs RHP Griffin Canning: an excellent bat at .499 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.462).
- Trevor Larnach (MIN) (75) vs RHP Brendan Beck: a strong bat at .430 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
Arms giving up extra bases today
- RHP Tomoyuki Sugano has been getting squared up by righties — .458 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Luis Arraez (SF), Rafael Devers (SF), and Jung Hoo Lee (SF).
- RHP Shane Bieber has been getting squared up by righties — .440 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Julio Rodríguez (SEA), Randy Arozarena (SEA), and J.P. Crawford (SEA).
- RHP Aaron Civale has been getting squared up by righties — .437 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Liam Hicks (MIA), Kyle Stowers (MIA), and Otto Lopez (MIA).
- LHP Shota Imanaga has been getting squared up by lefties — .424 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Jordan Walker (STL), Nelson Velázquez (STL), and Iván Herrera (STL).
Platoon edges to target
- Luis Arraez (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .425 against righties this year.
- Rafael Devers (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .487 against righties this year.
- Luis García Jr. (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .526 against righties this year.
- Liam Hicks (MIA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .443 against righties this year.
- Kyle Stowers (MIA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .392 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
270 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these total bases matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's total bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.