Who has the best total bases matchup today (Saturday, July 4, 2026)?

Luis García Jr. (WSH) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Braxton Ashcraft. An elite bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB total bases matchups today (Saturday, July 4, 2026)?

The top total bases matchups on Saturday, July 4, 2026: Luis García Jr. (100), Kyle Stowers (100), Liam Hicks (89), Bryce Harper (88), Trent Grisham (88). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by total bases upside.

Did the top total bases matchup get a total base on Saturday, July 4, 2026?

No — Luis García Jr. didn't record a total base.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Luis García Jr. (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .548 against righties this year. Kyle Stowers (MIA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .428 against righties this year. Liam Hicks (MIA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .438 against righties this year. Bryce Harper (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .544 against righties this year. Trent Grisham (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .350 against righties this year.

Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?

RHP Shane Bieber has been getting squared up by righties — .440 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Randy Arozarena (SEA), J.P. Crawford (SEA), and Dominic Canzone (SEA). RHP Aaron Civale has been getting squared up by righties — .437 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Kyle Stowers (MIA), Liam Hicks (MIA), and Xavier Edwards (MIA). LHP Shota Imanaga has been getting squared up by lefties — .424 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Jordan Walker (STL), Iván Herrera (STL), and Masyn Winn (STL). RHP Zebby Matthews has been vulnerable to righties — .391 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Trent Grisham (NYY), Ben Rice (NYY), and Jasson Domínguez (NYY).

How is the total bases matchup score calculated?

It's his bases-per-trip rate against that hand, recent form weighted heaviest, over a two-year baseline. Because this counts extra-base damage, slug matters as much as contact. Then the bullpen, order spot, and the yard. 0–100 across the slate.

What does TB/PA mean?

Total bases is 1 for a single, 2 for a double, 3 for a triple, 4 for a homer — so it rewards power, not just contact. Per plate appearance, around .37 is league average; .50+ is big-time slug. It's the cleanest power matchup we run: both the bat's slug and the arm's slug-against are real.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better. Total bases rewards the guys who do damage rather than just make contact, so this board leans slugger where the hits board leans average. It ranks today's spots, not the odds of any particular number.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a total base.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Total bases blends contact and power, so the platoon gap cuts twice: the opposite hand means both more balls in play and more of them driven. A hitter with a big split can swing a full base per game between the two matchups.

What are park factors?

Every extra foot of outfield is a base. Gaps and altitude turn singles into doubles and doubles into triples, while a small park trades the same batted ball for a home run. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a total base in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for total bases props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ total base" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against the box score. Total bases is one of the steadier props we publish — more ways to clear the line means less variance — and the top of the board beats the slate consistently. Every past date is auditable.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB total bases matchups — Saturday, July 4, 2026

Every hitter on the Saturday, July 4, 2026 slate — ranked by total-base upside — the best power and extra-base spots. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Saturday, July 4, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 2/5 (40%) on our total-bases over/under, against 47% on the season.

Top 5

2/540%

season 47%

Top 10

5/1050%

season 47%

Full slate

137/26452%

season 51%

Top call Kyle Stowers came through. Luis García Jr. didn't.

Each hitter below carries a 0–100 matchup score — a read on the spot in front of him, not a ranking of how good he is, so a star in a brutal matchup can sit below an average hitter in a soft one. Confidence next to it is coverage: how much real data backs the number. Every call here was graded against the box score — wins and misses both, with the record on this page. How this board is built →

Final · 7–1

PITaway

WSHhomeTop matchup100 Final · 11–4

MINaway

NYYhomeTop matchup88 Final · 3–0

DETaway

TEXhomeTop matchup78 Final · 0–11

TORaway

SEAhomeTop matchup83 Final · 8–5

BALaway

CINhomeTop matchup61 Final · 8–10

TBaway

HOUhomeTop matchup83 Final · 3–1

CWSaway

CLEhomeTop matchup70 Final · 3–0

STLaway

CHChomeTop matchup83 Final · 3–14

NYMaway

ATLhomeTop matchup68 Final · 6–4

SFaway

COLhomeTop matchup75 Final · 6–1

PHIaway

KChomeTop matchup88 Final · 8–1

BOSaway

LAAhomeTop matchup61 Final · 7–2

MIAaway

ATHhomeTop matchup100 Final · 3–4

MILaway

AZhomeTop matchup80 Final · 0–3

SDaway

LADhomeTop matchup84

Not starting57 not in the official lineup — moved to the bottom

PosSort

#Hitter · Matchup · 323 shownScore

169 with a TBLive count — updates as games play

1
Josh BellDH
MIN@NYY· 3-for-5
10TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #38
2
Yordan AlvarezDH
HOUvsTB· 3-for-4
9TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #64
3
Randy ArozarenaLF
SEAvsTOR· 3-for-4
7TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #10
T3
Otto LopezSS
MIA@ATH· 3-for-5
7TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #27
T3
JJ Wetherholt2B
STL@CHC· 3-for-4
7TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #72
6
Jasson DomínguezRF
NYYvsMIN· 2-for-5
6TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #47
T6
Colson MontgomerySS
CWS@CLE· 2-for-5
6TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #116
T6
Michael Harris IICF
ATLvsNYM· 3-for-5
6TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #118
T6
Alec Bohm3B
PHI@KC· 2-for-4
6TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #133
T6
Bryce EldridgeDH
SF@COL· 2-for-5
6TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #147
T6
Gabriel Rincones Jr.RF
PHI@KC· 2-for-4
6TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #165
T6
Eli WhiteRF
ATLvsNYM· 2-for-2
6TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #215
13
Kyle Stowers1B
MIA@ATH· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 2.0 TB, #2
T13
Junior Caminero3B
TB@HOU· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #9
T13
Brice Turang2B
MIL@AZ· 3-for-5
5TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #12
T13
Trevor LarnachLF
MIN@NYY· 2-for-3
5TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #15
T13
Kody Clemens1B
MIN@NYY· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #22
T13
Riley GreeneLF
DET@TEX· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #39
T13
Dominic CanzoneDH
SEAvsTOR· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #50
T13
Joe MackC
MIA@ATH· 2-for-5
5TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #107
T13
Freddie Freeman1B
LADvsSD· 2-for-3
5TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #124
T13
Jose Altuve2B
HOUvsTB· 2-for-3
5TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #138
T13
Mark Vientos1B
NYM@ATL· 2-for-5
5TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #153
T13
Jonny DeLucaRF
TB@HOU· 2-for-5
5TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #157
T13
Richie Palacios2B
TB@HOU· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #189
T13
Cole CarriggCF
COLvsSF· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #192
T13
Austin HedgesC
CLEvsCWS· 2-for-3
5TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #207
T13
Max SchuemannLF
NYYvsMIN· 2-for-2
5TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #239
T13
Mike YastrzemskiLF
ATLvsNYM· 2-for-2
5TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB
30
Mauricio DubónLF
ATLvsNYM· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #34
T30
James WoodRF
WSHvsPIT· 1-for-2
4TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #44
T30
Christian YelichDH
MIL@AZ· 1-for-5
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #51
T30
Cal RaleighC
SEAvsTOR· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #78
T30
Adley RutschmanC
BAL@CIN· 2-for-5
4TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #87
T30
Samuel BasalloC
BAL@CIN· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #112
T30
Victor BericotoLF
SF@COL· 2-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #140
T30
Josh LoweLF
LAAvsBOS· 1-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #145
T30
Willson Contreras1B
BOS@LAA· 1-for-5
4TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #150
T30
Pete Alonso1B
BAL@CIN· 3-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #156
T30
Romy GonzalezDH
BOS@LAA· 1-for-5
4TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #169
T30
J.T. RealmutoC
PHI@KC· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #183
T30
Austin Riley3B
ATLvsNYM· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #187
T30
Luke Keaschall2B
MIN@NYY· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #200
T30
Alex JacksonC
MIN@NYY· 1-for-5
4TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #216
T30
Tyrone TaylorLF
NYM@ATL· 1-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #231
T30
Adrian Del CastilloDH
AZvsMIL· 1-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #236
T30
Yainer DiazC
HOUvsTB· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #246
T30
Jose TrevinoC
CINvsBAL· 3-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #247
T30
Jackson ChourioLF
MIL@AZ· 1-for-2
4TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB
50
Liam HicksC
MIA@ATH· 3-for-5
3TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #3
T50
Kyle SchwarberDH
PHI@KC· 3-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #18
T50
Luis Arraez2B
SF@COL· 3-for-5
3TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #36
T50
Garrett MitchellCF
MIL@AZ· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #42
T50
Casey SchmittLF
SF@COL· 2-for-5
3TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #48
T50
Willy AdamesSS
SF@COL· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #91
T50
Fernando Tatis Jr.RF
SD@LAD· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #106
T50
Carlos CortesRF
ATHvsMIA· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #131
T50
TJ FriedlCF
CINvsBAL· 1-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #184
T50
Tristan PetersCF
CWS@CLE· 2-for-3
3TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #240
T50
Steven KwanLF
CLEvsCWS· 1-for-3
3TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #261
61
Jordan WalkerRF
STL@CHC· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #8
T61
Byron BuxtonCF
MIN@NYY· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #19
T61
Heliot RamosLF
SF@COL· 1-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #20
T61
William ContrerasC
MIL@AZ· 2-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #28
T61
Jung Hoo LeeRF
SF@COL· 1-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #43
T61
Wilyer AbreuRF
BOS@LAA· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #55
T61
Elly De La CruzSS
CINvsBAL· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #56
T61
Josh Jung3B
TEXvsDET· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #58
T61
Randal GrichukDH
CWS@CLE· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #61
T61
Cody BellingerLF
NYYvsMIN· 1-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #63
T61
Anthony Seigler2B
BOS@LAA· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #66
T61
Mookie BettsSS
LADvsSD· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #71
T61
Ceddanne RafaelaCF
BOS@LAA· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #75
T61
Ozzie Albies2B
ATLvsNYM· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #76
T61
Bryan ReynoldsLF
PIT@WSH· 2-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #77
T61
Sal Stewart1B
CINvsBAL· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #79
T61
Francisco LindorSS
NYM@ATL· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #81
T61
Hunter GoodmanC
COLvsSF· 2-for-2
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #89
T61
Zack Gelof3B
ATHvsMIA· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #93
T61
Daylen LileLF
WSHvsPIT· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #97
T61
Ryan O'HearnRF
PIT@WSH· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #101
T61
Alec Burleson1B
STL@CHC· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #122
T61
Nick Gonzales3B
PIT@WSH· 2-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #134
T61
Javier Sanoja3B
MIA@ATH· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #146
T61
Brayan RocchioSS
CLEvsCWS· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #149
T61
Lane ThomasLF
KCvsPHI· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #151
T61
Cole Young2B
SEAvsTOR· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #158
T61
Michael ConfortoDH
CHCvsSTL· 2-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #176
T61
Joey OrtizSS
MIL@AZ· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #185
T61
Joshua Kuroda-Grauer3B
ATHvsMIA· 2-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #197
T61
Eugenio SuárezDH
CINvsBAL· 2-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #203
T61
Henry BolteCF
ATHvsMIA· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #211
T61
Joey BartC
ATLvsNYM· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #218
T61
Tyler TolbertSS
KCvsPHI· 2-for-2
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #235
T61
Colt EmersonSS
SEAvsTOR· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #238
T61
Ildemaro Vargas1B
AZvsMIL· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #263
T61
Nick AllenSS
HOUvsTB· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.2 TB, #265
98
Bryce Harper1B
PHI@KC· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #4
T98
Trea TurnerSS
PHI@KC· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #11
T98
Iván HerreraDH
STL@CHC· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #13
T98
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF
CHCvsSTL· 1-for-1
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #16
T98
Xavier Edwards2B
MIA@ATH· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #17
T98
Andy PagesCF
LADvsSD· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #25
T98
Kerry CarpenterRF
DET@TEX· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #31
T98
Joc PedersonDH
TEXvsDET· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #35
T98
Jonathan Aranda1B
TB@HOU· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #37
T98
Konnor GriffinSS
PIT@WSH· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #45
T98
Brandon Lowe2B
PIT@WSH· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #49
T98
Gavin Sheets1B
SD@LAD· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #59
T98
Matt Olson1B
ATLvsNYM· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #60
T98
Gunnar HendersonSS
BAL@CIN· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #62
T98
Cedric MullinsCF
TB@HOU· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #65
T98
José TenaDH
WSHvsPIT· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #67
T98
José FermínLF
STL@CHC· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #68
T98
Jazz Chisholm Jr.2B
NYYvsMIN· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #70
T98
JJ BledayLF
CINvsBAL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #84
T98
Lawrence ButlerRF
ATHvsMIA· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #86
T98
Rafael Devers1B
SF@COL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #90
T98
Chase DeLauterRF
CLEvsCWS· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #94
T98
Esmerlyn ValdezRF
PIT@WSH· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #96
T98
Juan SotoLF
NYM@ATL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #99
T98
Kyle Karros3B
COLvsSF· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #103
T98
Colt Keith3B
DET@TEX· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #105
T98
Josh Naylor1B
SEAvsTOR· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #109
T98
Royce Lewis1B
MIN@NYY· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #113
T98
Zach McKinstry2B
DET@TEX· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #115
T98
Kyle Manzardo1B
CLEvsCWS· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #117
T98
Denzer Guzman3B
LAAvsBOS· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #125
T98
Ian HappLF
CHCvsSTL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #128
T98
Jakob MarseeCF
MIA@ATH· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #132
T98
Victor RoblesRF
SEAvsTOR· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #141
T98
Bo Bichette3B
NYM@ATL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #142
T98
Bryson Stott2B
PHI@KC· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #144
T98
Anthony VolpeSS
NYYvsMIN· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #148
T98
Jake McCarthyLF
COLvsSF· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #152
T98
Isaac Paredes3B
HOUvsTB· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #159
T98
Braden MontgomeryRF
CWS@CLE· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #160
T98
Cooper PrattSS
MIL@AZ· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #163
T98
Colton CowserCF
BAL@CIN· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #166
T98
Eric Wagaman1B
NYM@ATL· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #170
T98
Nick Loftin3B
KCvsPHI· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #171
T98
Luisangel AcuñaSS
CWS@CLE· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #174
T98
Justin CrawfordCF
PHI@KC· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #179
T98
Gabriel MorenoC
AZvsMIL· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #188
T98
Taylor TrammellCF
HOUvsTB· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #191
T98
Christian Walker1B
HOUvsTB· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #199
T98
Nico Hoerner2B
CHCvsSTL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #202
T98
Ben MalgeriRF
DET@TEX· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #206
T98
Dylan CrewsRF
WSHvsPIT· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #208
T98
Alex Freeland2B
LADvsSD· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #210
T98
Taylor WardDH
BAL@CIN· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #212
T98
Evan CarterCF
TEXvsDET· 1-for-1
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #213
T98
Andruw MonasterioSS
BOS@LAA· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #217
T98
Donovan Walton2B
LAAvsBOS· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #219
T98
Carson BengeRF
NYM@ATL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #220
T98
Wade MecklerLF
LAAvsBOS· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #221
T98
Starling MarteRF
KCvsPHI· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #222
T98
Spencer Steer1B
CINvsBAL· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #225
T98
Yohendrick PiñangoLF
TOR@SEA· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #226
T98
Taylor WallsSS
TB@HOU· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #230
T98
Drew RomoC
CWS@CLE· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #234
T98
Jorge MateoSS
ATLvsNYM· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #237
T98
Connor WongC
BOS@LAA· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #241
T98
Xander BogaertsSS
SD@LAD· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #254
T98
Blaze Alexander3B
BAL@CIN· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #258
T98
Brett Baty3B
NYM@ATL· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #262
T98
Kyle TeelC
CWS@CLE· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB
T98
TJ Rumfield1B
COLvsSF· 1-for-1
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB
T98
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.LF
AZvsMIL· 1-for-1
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB

Best MLB Total Bases Matchups — Saturday, July 4, 2026

Luis García Jr. (WSH) is the top total bases matchup on the Saturday, July 4, 2026 board at 100, with Kyle Stowers (MIA) and Liam Hicks (MIA) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by total-base upside — the best power and extra-base spots — raw power, the arm and bullpen they face, batting order, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top total bases spot: Luis García Jr.

Luis García Jr. (WSH) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Braxton Ashcraft. The lefty is racking up bases at .548 TB/PA against righties this year — and 1.243 over the last two weeks, an elite bat that turns into a total base in about 61% of his trips. And Braxton Ashcraft has been getting squared up by righties lately — .455 total bases per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 3 career PA against Braxton Ashcraft, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.

The rest of the top of the board

Kyle Stowers (MIA) (100) vs RHP Aaron Civale: a strong bat at .450 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.684).
Liam Hicks (MIA) (89) vs RHP Aaron Civale: a league-average bat at .360 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.684), hot bat.
Bryce Harper (PHI) (88) vs RHP Michael Wacha: an excellent bat at .531 into an arm tough on the same side (.290).
Trent Grisham (NYY) (88) vs RHP Zebby Matthews: a solid bat at .405 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.440), hot bat.
Ben Rice (NYY) (87) vs RHP Zebby Matthews: a strong bat at .428 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.440).
Tommy Edman (LAD) (84) vs LHP Wandy Peralta: a strong bat at .438 into an arm mostly containing the same side (.346).
Jordan Walker (STL) (83) vs LHP Shota Imanaga: a solid bat at .398 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.588).

Arms giving up extra bases today

RHP Shane Bieber has been getting squared up by righties — .440 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Randy Arozarena (SEA), J.P. Crawford (SEA), and Dominic Canzone (SEA).
RHP Aaron Civale has been getting squared up by righties — .437 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Kyle Stowers (MIA), Liam Hicks (MIA), and Xavier Edwards (MIA).
LHP Shota Imanaga has been getting squared up by lefties — .424 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Jordan Walker (STL), Iván Herrera (STL), and Masyn Winn (STL).
RHP Zebby Matthews has been vulnerable to righties — .391 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Trent Grisham (NYY), Ben Rice (NYY), and Jasson Domínguez (NYY).

Platoon edges to target

Luis García Jr. (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .548 against righties this year.
Kyle Stowers (MIA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .428 against righties this year.
Liam Hicks (MIA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .438 against righties this year.
Bryce Harper (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .544 against righties this year.
Trent Grisham (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .350 against righties this year.

How it played out

6 of the top 10 total bases matchups landed at least one total base. Top play Luis García Jr. finished with 0 total bases. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these total bases matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's total bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

What the total bases board is

The Total Bases board projects how many bases a hitter racks up vs the posted total-bases line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

His extra-base pop vs this arm.
The park.
Recent contact quality.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Total bases grades right at break-even even when we tune it to the hilt — the book prices the marginal leans efficiently. Transparency board.

How to use it

See who the model projects for extra-base damage; no systematic edge to bet.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best total bases matchup today (Saturday, July 4, 2026)?: Luis García Jr. (WSH) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Braxton Ashcraft. An elite bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB total bases matchups today (Saturday, July 4, 2026)?: The top total bases matchups on Saturday, July 4, 2026: Luis García Jr. (100), Kyle Stowers (100), Liam Hicks (89), Bryce Harper (88), Trent Grisham (88). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by total bases upside.
Did the top total bases matchup get a total base on Saturday, July 4, 2026?: No — Luis García Jr. didn't record a total base.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Luis García Jr. (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .548 against righties this year. Kyle Stowers (MIA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .428 against righties this year. Liam Hicks (MIA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .438 against righties this year. Bryce Harper (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .544 against righties this year. Trent Grisham (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .350 against righties this year.
Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?: RHP Shane Bieber has been getting squared up by righties — .440 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Randy Arozarena (SEA), J.P. Crawford (SEA), and Dominic Canzone (SEA). RHP Aaron Civale has been getting squared up by righties — .437 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Kyle Stowers (MIA), Liam Hicks (MIA), and Xavier Edwards (MIA). LHP Shota Imanaga has been getting squared up by lefties — .424 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Jordan Walker (STL), Iván Herrera (STL), and Masyn Winn (STL). RHP Zebby Matthews has been vulnerable to righties — .391 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Trent Grisham (NYY), Ben Rice (NYY), and Jasson Domínguez (NYY).
How is the total bases matchup score calculated?: It's his bases-per-trip rate against that hand, recent form weighted heaviest, over a two-year baseline. Because this counts extra-base damage, slug matters as much as contact. Then the bullpen, order spot, and the yard. 0–100 across the slate.
What does TB/PA mean?: Total bases is 1 for a single, 2 for a double, 3 for a triple, 4 for a homer — so it rewards power, not just contact. Per plate appearance, around .37 is league average; .50+ is big-time slug. It's the cleanest power matchup we run: both the bat's slug and the arm's slug-against are real.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better. Total bases rewards the guys who do damage rather than just make contact, so this board leans slugger where the hits board leans average. It ranks today's spots, not the odds of any particular number.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a total base.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Total bases blends contact and power, so the platoon gap cuts twice: the opposite hand means both more balls in play and more of them driven. A hitter with a big split can swing a full base per game between the two matchups.
What are park factors?: Every extra foot of outfield is a base. Gaps and altitude turn singles into doubles and doubles into triples, while a small park trades the same batted ball for a home run. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a total base in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for total bases props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ total base" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against the box score. Total bases is one of the steadier props we publish — more ways to clear the line means less variance — and the top of the board beats the slate consistently. Every past date is auditable.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.