Who has the best total bases matchup today (Tuesday, July 7, 2026)?

Luis García Jr. (WSH) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Tatsuya Imai. An elite bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB total bases matchups today (Tuesday, July 7, 2026)?

The top total bases matchups on Tuesday, July 7, 2026: Luis García Jr. (100), Fernando Tatis Jr. (100), Sal Stewart (92), Shohei Ohtani (90), Freddie Freeman (87). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by total bases upside.

Did the top total bases matchup get a total base on Tuesday, July 7, 2026?

Yes — Luis García Jr. got 2 total bases.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Luis García Jr. (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .549 against righties this year. Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .433 against righties this year. Freddie Freeman (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .466 against righties this year. Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .500 against righties this year. Joc Pederson (TEX) — lefty bat vs RHP, .394 against righties this year.

Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?

RHP Zac Gallen has been getting squared up by righties — .467 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD), Manny Machado (SD), and Xander Bogaerts (SD). RHP Seth Lugo has been getting squared up by righties — .431 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Bo Bichette (NYM), Juan Soto (NYM), and A.J. Ewing (NYM). LHP Matthew Boyd has been vulnerable to lefties — .415 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Taylor Ward (BAL), Adley Rutschman (BAL), and Coby Mayo (BAL). RHP Matt Svanson has been vulnerable to righties — .401 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Jackson Chourio (MIL), William Contreras (MIL), and Brice Turang (MIL).

How is the total bases matchup score calculated?

It's his bases-per-trip rate against that hand, recent form weighted heaviest, over a two-year baseline. Because this counts extra-base damage, slug matters as much as contact. Then the bullpen, order spot, and the yard. 0–100 across the slate.

What does TB/PA mean?

Total bases is 1 for a single, 2 for a double, 3 for a triple, 4 for a homer — so it rewards power, not just contact. Per plate appearance, around .37 is league average; .50+ is big-time slug. It's the cleanest power matchup we run: both the bat's slug and the arm's slug-against are real.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better. Total bases rewards the guys who do damage rather than just make contact, so this board leans slugger where the hits board leans average. It ranks today's spots, not the odds of any particular number.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a total base.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Total bases blends contact and power, so the platoon gap cuts twice: the opposite hand means both more balls in play and more of them driven. A hitter with a big split can swing a full base per game between the two matchups.

What are park factors?

Every extra foot of outfield is a base. Gaps and altitude turn singles into doubles and doubles into triples, while a small park trades the same batted ball for a home run. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a total base in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for total bases props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ total base" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against the box score. Total bases is one of the steadier props we publish — more ways to clear the line means less variance — and the top of the board beats the slate consistently. Every past date is auditable.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB total bases matchups — Tuesday, July 7, 2026

Every hitter on the Tuesday, July 7, 2026 slate — ranked by total-base upside — the best power and extra-base spots. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Tuesday, July 7, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 4/5 (80%) on our total-bases over/under, against 47% on the season.

Top 5

4/580%

season 47%

Top 10

6/1060%

season 46%

Full slate

142/26653%

season 51%

Top call Luis García Jr. came through. Sal Stewart didn't.

Each hitter below carries a 0–100 matchup score — a read on the spot in front of him, not a ranking of how good he is, so a star in a brutal matchup can sit below an average hitter in a soft one. Confidence next to it is coverage: how much real data backs the number. Every call here was graded against the box score — wins and misses both, with the record on this page. How this board is built →

Final · 4–3

MILaway

STLhomeTop matchup62 Final · 5–2

CHCaway

BALhomeTop matchup81 Final · 2–6

ATHaway

DEThomeTop matchup73 Final · 4–12

ATLaway

PIThomeTop matchup75 Final · 5–6

SEAaway

MIAhomeTop matchup71 Final · 4–6

NYYaway

TBhomeTop matchup78 Final · 6–3

HOUaway

WSHhomeTop matchup100 Final · 4–1

PHIaway

CINhomeTop matchup92 Final · 16–12

KCaway

NYMhomeTop matchup87 Final · 1–3

CLEaway

MINhomeTop matchup62 Final · 8–1

BOSaway

CWShomeTop matchup71 Final · 10–2

MILaway

STLhomeTop matchup64 Final · 3–8

LAAaway

TEXhomeTop matchup86 Final · 1–4

AZaway

SDhomeTop matchup100 Final · 9–3

TORaway

SFhomeTop matchup86 Final · 4–3

COLaway

LADhomeTop matchup90

Not starting71 not in the official lineup — moved to the bottom

PosSort

#Hitter · Matchup · 359 shownScore

187 with a TBLive count — updates as games play

1
Ryan O'HearnRF
PITvsATL· 4-for-5
13TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #141
2
Nick Loftin3B
KC@NYM· 3-for-5
8TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #196
T2
Tyler TolbertSS
KC@NYM· 5-for-6
8TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #226
4
A.J. EwingCF
NYMvsKC· 4-for-4
7TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #15
5
Ben RiceDH
NYY@TB· 3-for-4
6TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #99
6
James WoodRF
WSHvsHOU· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #22
T6
Kyle SchwarberDH
PHI@CIN· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #30
T6
Ceddanne RafaelaCF
BOS@CWS· 2-for-5
5TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #36
T6
Yandy DíazDH
TBvsNYY· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #53
T6
Iván HerreraDH
STLvsMIL· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #86
T6
Lane ThomasLF
KC@NYM· 3-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #95
T6
Christian YelichDH
MIL@STL· 3-for-5
5TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #150
T6
Victor Mesa Jr.RF
TBvsNYY· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #165
T6
Andruw MonasterioSS
BOS@CWS· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #218
T6
Joey OrtizSS
MIL@STL· 2-for-5
5TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #269
T6
Cooper PrattSS
MIL@STL· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #272
T6
Jonatan ClaseLF
TOR@SF· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #273
18
Shohei OhtaniTWP
LADvsCOL· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #4
T18
Juan SotoLF
NYMvsKC· 1-for-5
4TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #7
T18
Brice Turang2B
MIL@STL· 2-for-5
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #46
T18
Nelson VelázquezLF
STLvsMIL· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #52
T18
Colt Keith3B
DETvsATH· 1-for-2
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #58
T18
Liam HicksC
MIAvsSEA· 3-for-5
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #59
T18
Eugenio SuárezDH
CINvsPHI· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #60
T18
Jose Altuve2B
HOU@WSH· 1-for-5
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #61
T18
Jordan WalkerRF
STLvsMIL· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #63
T18
Cal RaleighC
SEA@MIA· 2-for-5
4TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #111
T18
Owen CaissieRF
MIAvsSEA· 1-for-2
4TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #146
T18
Ernie Clement2B
TOR@SF· 3-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #148
T18
Cole Young2B
SEA@MIA· 1-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #149
T18
Joshua Kuroda-Grauer3B
ATH@DET· 3-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #166
T18
Jake Bauers1B
MIL@STL· 2-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #176
T18
Jake Cronenworth2B
SDvsAZ· 1-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #190
T18
Rhys Hoskins1B
CLE@MIN· 1-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #208
T18
Kody Clemens1B
MINvsCLE· 2-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #214
T18
Hunter FeducciaC
TBvsNYY· 1-for-2
4TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #229
T18
Alejandro OsunaLF
TEXvsLAA· 1-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #243
T18
Joey OrtizSS
MIL@STL· 3-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #245
T18
Henry BolteCF
ATH@DET· 1-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #249
T18
Heriberto HernándezLF
MIAvsSEA· 1-for-2
4TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB
41
Michael Harris IICF
ATL@PIT· 2-for-5
3TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #17
T41
Salvador PerezDH
KC@NYM· 2-for-5
3TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #62
T41
Curtis Mead3B
WSHvsHOU· 2-for-5
3TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #81
T41
Cole CarriggCF
COL@LAD· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #92
T41
Chase DeLauterRF
CLE@MIN· 2-for-3
3TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #97
T41
Brandon Lowe2B
PITvsATL· 3-for-5
3TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #102
T41
Willson Contreras1B
BOS@CWS· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #108
T41
Luis Arraez2B
SFvsTOR· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #110
T41
Mauricio DubónLF
ATL@PIT· 2-for-3
3TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #159
T41
Alex Bregman3B
CHC@BAL· 2-for-5
3TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #169
T41
Alex Freeland2B
LADvsCOL· 3-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #170
T41
Derek HillCF
PHI@CIN· 2-for-3
3TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #179
T41
Michael Massey2B
KC@NYM· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #186
T41
Sam AntonacciLF
CWSvsBOS· 3-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #204
T41
Richie Palacios2B
TBvsNYY· 2-for-2
3TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #210
T41
Austin Riley3B
ATL@PIT· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #222
T41
Miguel AmayaC
CHC@BAL· 2-for-3
3TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #275
T41
Jarren DuranLF
BOS@CWS· 2-for-5
3TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #276
59
Luis García Jr.1B
WSHvsHOU· 2-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 2.1 TB, #1
T59
Fernando Tatis Jr.RF
SDvsAZ· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 2.0 TB, #2
T59
Freddie Freeman1B
LADvsCOL· 2-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #5
T59
Heliot RamosLF
SFvsTOR· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #10
T59
Ketel Marte2B
AZ@SD· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #13
T59
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF
CHC@BAL· 2-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #21
T59
Adley RutschmanC
BALvsCHC· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #23
T59
Matt Olson1B
ATL@PIT· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #25
T59
Carson BengeRF
NYMvsKC· 2-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #28
T59
Jordan WalkerRF
STLvsMIL· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #37
T59
Jac CaglianoneRF
KC@NYM· 1-for-6
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #44
T59
Trent GrishamCF
NYY@TB· 1-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #45
T59
Kevin McGonigleSS
DETvsATH· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #47
T59
Gabriel MorenoC
AZ@SD· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #94
T59
Jorge PolancoDH
NYMvsKC· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #103
T59
Romy GonzalezDH
BOS@CWS· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #105
T59
Josh BellDH
MINvsCLE· 2-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #119
T59
Luis CampusanoC
SDvsAZ· 2-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #124
T59
Randy ArozarenaLF
SEA@MIA· 2-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #130
T59
Jared Young1B
NYMvsKC· 2-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #133
T59
Zach McKinstry2B
DETvsATH· 2-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #154
T59
Luke RaleyRF
SEA@MIA· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #168
T59
Garrett MitchellCF
MIL@STL· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #177
T59
Matt VierlingCF
DETvsATH· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #178
T59
Nick Gonzales3B
PITvsATL· 2-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #180
T59
Jorge SolerDH
LAA@TEX· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #185
T59
Dansby SwansonSS
CHC@BAL· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #187
T59
Brett Baty3B
NYMvsKC· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #191
T59
Nasim Nuñez2B
WSHvsHOU· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #206
T59
Isaac CollinsLF
KC@NYM· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #209
T59
Justin CrawfordCF
PHI@CIN· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #212
T59
Jo AdellRF
LAA@TEX· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #238
T59
Tyler CallihanLF
PITvsATL· 2-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #242
T59
Brandon ValenzuelaC
TOR@SF· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #247
T59
Ryan KreidlerSS
MINvsCLE· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #248
T59
Jakob MarseeCF
MIAvsSEA· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #256
T59
Lars NootbaarLF
STLvsMIL· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #262
T59
Luke Keaschall2B
MINvsCLE· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #265
T59
Sean KeysDH
TOR@SF· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #267
T59
Ali SánchezC
NYY@TB· 2-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #278
T59
Elias DíazC
TEXvsLAA· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #281
T59
Mickey MoniakLF
COL@LAD· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #285
101
Sal Stewart1B
CINvsPHI· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #3
T101
Bo Bichette3B
NYMvsKC· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #6
T101
Carter JensenC
KC@NYM· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #12
T101
Josh Smith2B
TEXvsLAA· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #24
T101
Andy PagesCF
LADvsCOL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #27
T101
Trea TurnerSS
PHI@CIN· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #31
T101
Nolan Schanuel1B
LAA@TEX· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #33
T101
Rafael Devers1B
SFvsTOR· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #38
T101
Anthony Seigler2B
BOS@CWS· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #39
T101
Ozzie Albies2B
ATL@PIT· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #40
T101
Zack Gelof3B
ATH@DET· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #42
T101
Tommy Edman2B
LADvsCOL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #43
T101
Jackson MerrillCF
SDvsAZ· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #50
T101
Luis LaraRF
MIL@STL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #54
T101
Shea LangeliersC
ATH@DET· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #55
T101
Jonah HeimC
ATH@DET· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #57
T101
Josh LoweLF
LAA@TEX· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #65
T101
Bobby Witt Jr.SS
KC@NYM· 1-for-6
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #72
T101
J.P. CrawfordSS
SEA@MIA· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #73
T101
Pete Alonso1B
BALvsCHC· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #75
T101
Isaac Paredes3B
HOU@WSH· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #78
T101
Austin MartinRF
MINvsCLE· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #79
T101
Esmerlyn ValdezRF
PITvsATL· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #82
T101
CJ AbramsSS
WSHvsHOU· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #83
T101
Christian Walker1B
HOU@WSH· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #85
T101
Spencer Steer1B
CINvsPHI· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #87
T101
Willi Castro2B
COL@LAD· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #88
T101
Tyler StephensonC
CINvsPHI· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #89
T101
Casey SchmittLF
SFvsTOR· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #96
T101
Nathan LukesRF
TOR@SF· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #107
T101
Xavier Edwards2B
MIAvsSEA· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #115
T101
Victor BericotoLF
SFvsTOR· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #118
T101
Edmundo SosaLF
PHI@CIN· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #120
T101
Otto LopezSS
MIAvsSEA· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #122
T101
Brooks Lee3B
MINvsCLE· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #125
T101
Spencer Torkelson1B
DETvsATH· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #127
T101
Blaze Alexander3B
BALvsCHC· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #129
T101
Jake Burger1B
TEXvsLAA· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #132
T101
Willy AdamesSS
SFvsTOR· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #134
T101
Jake MangumCF
PITvsATL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #138
T101
Andrew Vaughn1B
MIL@STL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #139
T101
Josh Naylor1B
SEA@MIA· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #142
T101
Griffin ConineRF
MIAvsSEA· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #143
T101
Cody BellingerLF
NYY@TB· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #145
T101
Victor CaratiniC
MINvsCLE· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #153
T101
TJ Rumfield1B
COL@LAD· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #155
T101
Gunnar HendersonSS
BALvsCHC· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #158
T101
Michael ConfortoDH
CHC@BAL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #162
T101
Denzer Guzman3B
LAA@TEX· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #163
T101
Kazuma Okamoto3B
TOR@SF· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #172
T101
José FermínLF
STLvsMIL· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #173
T101
Ezequiel DuranSS
TEXvsLAA· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #175
T101
Tyler FreemanRF
COL@LAD· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #183
T101
Luis TorrensC
NYMvsKC· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #184
T101
Junior PerezCF
CWSvsBOS· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #188
T101
Jorbit Vivas3B
WSHvsHOU· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #189
T101
Wade MecklerLF
LAA@TEX· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #192
T101
Brice MatthewsCF
HOU@WSH· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #194
T101
Taylor WallsSS
TBvsNYY· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #195
T101
Samad TaylorLF
SDvsAZ· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #197
T101
Nick AllenSS
HOU@WSH· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #200
T101
James McCannC
AZ@SD· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #201
T101
Gary SánchezC
MIL@STL· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #202
T101
Jazz Chisholm Jr.2B
NYY@TB· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #205
T101
Jared TrioloSS
PITvsATL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #213
T101
JJ Wetherholt2B
STLvsMIL· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #217
T101
JJ BledayLF
CINvsPHI· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #219
T101
Mike YastrzemskiLF
ATL@PIT· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #220
T101
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.1B
TOR@SF· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #221
T101
Samuel BasalloC
BALvsCHC· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #224
T101
Jim JarvisSS
ATL@PIT· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #225
T101
Christian VázquezC
HOU@WSH· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #230
T101
Nico Hoerner2B
CHC@BAL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #239
T101
Connor WongC
BOS@CWS· 1-for-1
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #257
T101
Nicky Lopez2B
TEXvsLAA· 1-for-1
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #258
T101
Max SchuemannLF
NYY@TB· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #266
T101
Braxton FulfordDH
COL@LAD· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #277
T101
Javier Sanoja3B
MIAvsSEA· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #280
T101
Oswald Peraza2B
LAA@TEX· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #282
T101
Bryce EldridgeDH
SFvsTOR· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #283
T101
Andrés GiménezSS
TOR@SF· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #284
T101
Logan O'HoppeC
LAA@TEX· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.2 TB, #287
T101
Jackson ChourioLF
MIL@STL· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB
T101
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.LF
AZ@SD· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB
T101
Jasson DomínguezRF
NYY@TB· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB
T101
Ryan McMahon3B
NYY@TB· 1-for-1
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB
T101
Cam CauleyCF
TEXvsLAA· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB

Best MLB Total Bases Matchups — Tuesday, July 7, 2026

Luis García Jr. (WSH) is the top total bases matchup on the Tuesday, July 7, 2026 board at 100, with Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) and Sal Stewart (CIN) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by total-base upside — the best power and extra-base spots — raw power, the arm and bullpen they face, batting order, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top total bases spot: Luis García Jr.

Luis García Jr. (WSH) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Tatsuya Imai. The lefty is racking up bases at .549 TB/PA against righties this year — and 1.167 over the last two weeks, an elite bat that turns into a total base in about 61% of his trips. And Tatsuya Imai has been getting squared up by righties lately — .542 total bases per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Tatsuya Imai. It all sets up in a neutral park.

The rest of the top of the board

Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) (100) vs RHP Zac Gallen: a solid bat at .396 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.947).
Sal Stewart (CIN) (92) vs RHP Zack Wheeler: a strong bat at .438 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.688).
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (90) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: a solid bat at .395 into an arm tough on the same side (.286).
Freddie Freeman (LAD) (87) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: a strong bat at .445 into an arm tough on the same side (.286).
Bo Bichette (NYM) (87) vs RHP Seth Lugo: a solid bat at .413 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (1.000).
Juan Soto (NYM) (87) vs RHP Seth Lugo: a solid bat at .404 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.579).
Manny Machado (SD) (86) vs RHP Zac Gallen: a solid bat at .406 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.947).

Arms giving up extra bases today

RHP Zac Gallen has been getting squared up by righties — .467 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD), Manny Machado (SD), and Xander Bogaerts (SD).
RHP Seth Lugo has been getting squared up by righties — .431 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Bo Bichette (NYM), Juan Soto (NYM), and A.J. Ewing (NYM).
LHP Matthew Boyd has been vulnerable to lefties — .415 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Taylor Ward (BAL), Adley Rutschman (BAL), and Coby Mayo (BAL).
RHP Matt Svanson has been vulnerable to righties — .401 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Jackson Chourio (MIL), William Contreras (MIL), and Brice Turang (MIL).

Platoon edges to target

Luis García Jr. (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .549 against righties this year.
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .433 against righties this year.
Freddie Freeman (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .466 against righties this year.
Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .500 against righties this year.
Joc Pederson (TEX) — lefty bat vs RHP, .394 against righties this year.

How it played out

8 of the top 10 total bases matchups landed at least one total base. Top play Luis García Jr. finished with 2 total bases. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these total bases matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's total bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

What the total bases board is

The Total Bases board projects how many bases a hitter racks up vs the posted total-bases line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

His extra-base pop vs this arm.
The park.
Recent contact quality.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Total bases grades right at break-even even when we tune it to the hilt — the book prices the marginal leans efficiently. Transparency board.

How to use it

See who the model projects for extra-base damage; no systematic edge to bet.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best total bases matchup today (Tuesday, July 7, 2026)?: Luis García Jr. (WSH) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Tatsuya Imai. An elite bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB total bases matchups today (Tuesday, July 7, 2026)?: The top total bases matchups on Tuesday, July 7, 2026: Luis García Jr. (100), Fernando Tatis Jr. (100), Sal Stewart (92), Shohei Ohtani (90), Freddie Freeman (87). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by total bases upside.
Did the top total bases matchup get a total base on Tuesday, July 7, 2026?: Yes — Luis García Jr. got 2 total bases.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Luis García Jr. (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .549 against righties this year. Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .433 against righties this year. Freddie Freeman (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .466 against righties this year. Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .500 against righties this year. Joc Pederson (TEX) — lefty bat vs RHP, .394 against righties this year.
Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?: RHP Zac Gallen has been getting squared up by righties — .467 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD), Manny Machado (SD), and Xander Bogaerts (SD). RHP Seth Lugo has been getting squared up by righties — .431 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Bo Bichette (NYM), Juan Soto (NYM), and A.J. Ewing (NYM). LHP Matthew Boyd has been vulnerable to lefties — .415 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Taylor Ward (BAL), Adley Rutschman (BAL), and Coby Mayo (BAL). RHP Matt Svanson has been vulnerable to righties — .401 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Jackson Chourio (MIL), William Contreras (MIL), and Brice Turang (MIL).
How is the total bases matchup score calculated?: It's his bases-per-trip rate against that hand, recent form weighted heaviest, over a two-year baseline. Because this counts extra-base damage, slug matters as much as contact. Then the bullpen, order spot, and the yard. 0–100 across the slate.
What does TB/PA mean?: Total bases is 1 for a single, 2 for a double, 3 for a triple, 4 for a homer — so it rewards power, not just contact. Per plate appearance, around .37 is league average; .50+ is big-time slug. It's the cleanest power matchup we run: both the bat's slug and the arm's slug-against are real.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better. Total bases rewards the guys who do damage rather than just make contact, so this board leans slugger where the hits board leans average. It ranks today's spots, not the odds of any particular number.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a total base.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Total bases blends contact and power, so the platoon gap cuts twice: the opposite hand means both more balls in play and more of them driven. A hitter with a big split can swing a full base per game between the two matchups.
What are park factors?: Every extra foot of outfield is a base. Gaps and altitude turn singles into doubles and doubles into triples, while a small park trades the same batted ball for a home run. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a total base in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for total bases props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ total base" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against the box score. Total bases is one of the steadier props we publish — more ways to clear the line means less variance — and the top of the board beats the slate consistently. Every past date is auditable.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.