Best MLB Total Bases Matchups — Tuesday, July 7, 2026
Top total bases spot: Luis García Jr.
Luis García Jr. (WSH) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Tatsuya Imai. The lefty is racking up bases at .552 TB/PA against righties this year — and 1.146 over the last two weeks, an elite bat that turns into a total base in about 60% of his trips. And Tatsuya Imai has been getting squared up by righties lately — .542 total bases per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Tatsuya Imai. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) (94) vs RHP Zac Gallen: a solid bat at .407 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.947).
- Manny Machado (SD) (84) vs RHP Zac Gallen: a solid bat at .410 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.947).
- Junior Caminero (TB) (82) vs RHP Will Warren: an excellent bat at .522 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.579), due to bounce back.
- Mookie Betts (LAD) (81) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: a strong bat at .443 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.778), due to bounce back.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (78) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: a solid bat at .392 into an arm tough on the same side (.278).
- Freddie Freeman (LAD) (76) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: a strong bat at .446 into an arm tough on the same side (.278).
- Andy Pages (LAD) (76) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: a league-average bat at .352 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.778), due to bounce back.
Arms giving up extra bases today
- RHP Zac Gallen has been getting squared up by righties — .467 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD), Manny Machado (SD), and Ty France (SD).
- RHP Seth Lugo has been getting squared up by righties — .431 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Bo Bichette (NYM), Juan Soto (NYM), and A.J. Ewing (NYM).
- RHP Michael Lorenzen has been getting squared up by righties — .425 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Mookie Betts (LAD), Shohei Ohtani (LAD), and Freddie Freeman (LAD).
- LHP Matthew Boyd has been vulnerable to lefties — .415 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Adley Rutschman (BAL), Taylor Ward (BAL), and Pete Alonso (BAL).
Platoon edges to target
- Luis García Jr. (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .552 against righties this year.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .432 against righties this year.
- Freddie Freeman (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .468 against righties this year.
- Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .490 against righties this year.
- A.J. Ewing (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .345 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
288 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these total bases matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's total bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.