Best MLB Total Bases Matchups — Wednesday, July 8, 2026
Top total bases spot: Luis García Jr.
Luis García Jr. (WSH) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Spencer Arrighetti. The lefty is racking up bases at .549 TB/PA against righties this year — and 1.167 over the last two weeks, an elite bat that turns into a total base in about 61% of his trips. And Spencer Arrighetti has been getting squared up by righties lately — .619 total bases per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Spencer Arrighetti. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Hunter Goodman (COL) (83) vs RHP Roki Sasaki: a strong bat at .456 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.692).
- Kyle Karros (COL) (83) vs RHP Roki Sasaki: a strong bat at .428 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.692).
- Jonathan Aranda (TB) (81) vs RHP Gerrit Cole: a solid bat at .390 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.651), due to bounce back.
- Junior Caminero (TB) (80) vs RHP Gerrit Cole: an excellent bat at .514 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.520), due to bounce back.
- Carter Jensen (KC) (79) vs RHP Christian Scott: a solid bat at .385 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.538).
- Dillon Dingler (DET) (77) vs LHP Jeffrey Springs: a solid bat at .392 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.586).
- Michael Harris II (ATL) (77) vs RHP Jared Jones: a strong bat at .436 into an arm tough on the same side (.191), hot bat.
Arms giving up extra bases today
- RHP Gerrit Cole has been getting squared up by righties — .442 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Jonathan Aranda (TB), Junior Caminero (TB), and Cedric Mullins (TB).
- RHP Roki Sasaki has been getting squared up by righties — .441 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Hunter Goodman (COL), Kyle Karros (COL), and TJ Rumfield (COL).
- LHP Jeffrey Springs has been getting squared up by lefties — .428 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Dillon Dingler (DET), Kevin McGonigle (DET), and Spencer Torkelson (DET).
- RHP Slade Cecconi has been vulnerable to righties — .409 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Austin Martin (MIN), Brooks Lee (MIN), and Royce Lewis (MIN).
Platoon edges to target
- Luis García Jr. (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .549 against righties this year.
- Jonathan Aranda (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .423 against righties this year.
- Carter Jensen (KC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .386 against righties this year.
- Dillon Dingler (DET) — righty bat vs LHP, .388 against lefties this year.
- Michael Harris II (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .517 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
270 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these total bases matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's total bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.