Best MLB Total Bases Matchups — Wednesday, July 8, 2026
Top total bases spot: Luis García Jr.
Luis García Jr. (WSH) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Spencer Arrighetti. The lefty is racking up bases at .553 TB/PA against righties this year — and 1.175 over the last two weeks, an elite bat that turns into a total base in about 60% of his trips. And Spencer Arrighetti has been getting squared up by righties lately — .619 total bases per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Spencer Arrighetti. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Matt Vierling (DET) (88) vs LHP Jeffrey Springs: a league-average bat at .365 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.586).
- Bryce Harper (PHI) (88) vs RHP Chase Burns: a strong bat at .441 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.485), due to bounce back.
- Dillon Dingler (DET) (87) vs LHP Jeffrey Springs: a solid bat at .385 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.586).
- Junior Caminero (TB) (80) vs RHP Gerrit Cole: an excellent bat at .513 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.529), due to bounce back.
- Brandon Marsh (PHI) (79) vs RHP Chase Burns: a strong bat at .450 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.485).
- Carter Jensen (KC) (78) vs RHP Christian Scott: a solid bat at .382 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.538).
- Michael Harris II (ATL) (78) vs RHP Jared Jones: a strong bat at .447 into an arm tough on the same side (.191), hot bat.
Arms giving up extra bases today
- LHP Jeffrey Springs has been getting squared up by lefties — .428 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Matt Vierling (DET), Dillon Dingler (DET), and Spencer Torkelson (DET).
- RHP Tyler Phillips has been vulnerable to righties — .418 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Dominic Canzone (SEA), J.P. Crawford (SEA), and Cal Raleigh (SEA).
- RHP Roki Sasaki has been vulnerable to righties — .413 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Jake McCarthy (COL), Mickey Moniak (COL), and Cole Carrigg (COL).
- RHP Christian Scott has been vulnerable to righties — .397 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Carter Jensen (KC), Jac Caglianone (KC), and Bobby Witt Jr. (KC).
Platoon edges to target
- Luis García Jr. (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .553 against righties this year.
- Matt Vierling (DET) — righty bat vs LHP, .390 against lefties this year.
- Bryce Harper (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .530 against righties this year.
- Dillon Dingler (DET) — righty bat vs LHP, .381 against lefties this year.
- Brandon Marsh (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .502 against righties this year.
How it played out
6 of the top 10 total bases matchups landed at least one total base. Top play Luis García Jr. finished with 6 total bases. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these total bases matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's total bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.