Who has the best total bases matchup today (Wednesday, July 8, 2026)?

Luis García Jr. (WSH) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Spencer Arrighetti. An elite bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB total bases matchups today (Wednesday, July 8, 2026)?

The top total bases matchups on Wednesday, July 8, 2026: Luis García Jr. (100), Matt Vierling (88), Bryce Harper (88), Dillon Dingler (87), Junior Caminero (80). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by total bases upside.

Did the top total bases matchup get a total base on Wednesday, July 8, 2026?

Yes — Luis García Jr. got 6 total bases.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Luis García Jr. (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .553 against righties this year. Matt Vierling (DET) — righty bat vs LHP, .390 against lefties this year. Bryce Harper (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .530 against righties this year. Dillon Dingler (DET) — righty bat vs LHP, .381 against lefties this year. Brandon Marsh (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .502 against righties this year.

Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?

LHP Jeffrey Springs has been getting squared up by lefties — .428 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Matt Vierling (DET), Dillon Dingler (DET), and Spencer Torkelson (DET). RHP Tyler Phillips has been vulnerable to righties — .418 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Dominic Canzone (SEA), J.P. Crawford (SEA), and Cal Raleigh (SEA). RHP Roki Sasaki has been vulnerable to righties — .413 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Jake McCarthy (COL), Mickey Moniak (COL), and Cole Carrigg (COL). RHP Christian Scott has been vulnerable to righties — .397 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Carter Jensen (KC), Jac Caglianone (KC), and Bobby Witt Jr. (KC).

How is the total bases matchup score calculated?

It's his bases-per-trip rate against that hand, recent form weighted heaviest, over a two-year baseline. Because this counts extra-base damage, slug matters as much as contact. Then the bullpen, order spot, and the yard. 0–100 across the slate.

What does TB/PA mean?

Total bases is 1 for a single, 2 for a double, 3 for a triple, 4 for a homer — so it rewards power, not just contact. Per plate appearance, around .37 is league average; .50+ is big-time slug. It's the cleanest power matchup we run: both the bat's slug and the arm's slug-against are real.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better. Total bases rewards the guys who do damage rather than just make contact, so this board leans slugger where the hits board leans average. It ranks today's spots, not the odds of any particular number.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a total base.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Total bases blends contact and power, so the platoon gap cuts twice: the opposite hand means both more balls in play and more of them driven. A hitter with a big split can swing a full base per game between the two matchups.

What are park factors?

Every extra foot of outfield is a base. Gaps and altitude turn singles into doubles and doubles into triples, while a small park trades the same batted ball for a home run. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a total base in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for total bases props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ total base" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against the box score. Total bases is one of the steadier props we publish — more ways to clear the line means less variance — and the top of the board beats the slate consistently. Every past date is auditable.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB total bases matchups — Wednesday, July 8, 2026

Every hitter on the Wednesday, July 8, 2026 slate — ranked by total-base upside — the best power and extra-base spots. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Wednesday, July 8, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 1/5 (20%) on our total-bases over/under, against 47% on the season.

Top 5

1/520%

season 47%

Top 10

4/1040%

season 47%

Full slate

121/26446%

season 51%

Top call Luis García Jr. came through. Matt Vierling didn't.

Each hitter below carries a 0–100 matchup score — a read on the spot in front of him, not a ranking of how good he is, so a star in a brutal matchup can sit below an average hitter in a soft one. Confidence next to it is coverage: how much real data backs the number. Every call here was graded against the box score — wins and misses both, with the record on this page. How this board is built →

Final · 10–0

TORaway

SFhomeTop matchup77 Final · 9–7

CHCaway

BALhomeTop matchup75 Final · 1–6

ATHaway

DEThomeTop matchup88 Final · 3–0

ATLaway

PIThomeTop matchup78 Final · 0–2

SEAaway

MIAhomeTop matchup70 Final · 0–3

NYYaway

TBhomeTop matchup80 Final · 2–8

HOUaway

WSHhomeTop matchup100 Final · 2–6

KCaway

NYMhomeTop matchup78 Final · 5–11

PHIaway

CINhomeTop matchup88 Final · 5–6

CLEaway

MINhomeTop matchup69 Final · 5–0

BOSaway

CWShomeTop matchup60 Final · 1–5

MILaway

STLhomeTop matchup57 Final · 13–1

LAAaway

TEXhomeTop matchup60 Final · 3–4

COLaway

LADhomeTop matchup78 Final · 4–10

AZaway

SDhomeTop matchup69

Not starting59 not in the official lineup — moved to the bottom

PosSort

#Hitter · Matchup · 325 shownScore

161 with a TBLive count — updates as games play

1
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF
CHC@BAL· 2-for-4
8TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #14
T1
Sal Stewart1B
CINvsPHI· 2-for-4
8TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #44
T1
Jo AdellRF
LAA@TEX· 2-for-4
8TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #135
4
Luis García Jr.1B
WSHvsHOU· 3-for-4
6TBFinal
Proj 2.0 TB, #1
T4
A.J. EwingCF
NYMvsKC· 2-for-5
6TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #31
T4
Kyle Karros3B
COL@LAD· 2-for-4
6TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #59
T4
Elly De La CruzSS
CINvsPHI· 2-for-3
6TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #110
T4
Noelvi MarteRF
CINvsPHI· 2-for-5
6TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #201
T4
Alec Burleson1B
STLvsMIL· 2-for-4
6TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #257
10
Yandy DíazDH
TBvsNYY· 4-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #36
T10
Zach NetoSS
LAA@TEX· 3-for-5
5TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #52
T10
Vaughn Grissom2B
LAA@TEX· 4-for-5
5TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #129
T10
Kazuma Okamoto3B
TOR@SF· 2-for-5
5TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #148
T10
JJ BledayLF
CINvsPHI· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #149
T10
Jackson Holliday2B
BALvsCHC· 4-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #246
16
Spencer Torkelson1B
DETvsATH· 1-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #13
T16
Kyle SchwarberDH
PHI@CIN· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #18
T16
Kody Clemens1B
MINvsCLE· 3-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #25
T16
Kyle Stowers1B
MIAvsSEA· 1-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #43
T16
Pete Alonso1B
BALvsCHC· 1-for-5
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #62
T16
CJ AbramsSS
WSHvsHOU· 1-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #68
T16
Xavier Edwards2B
MIAvsSEA· 2-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #96
T16
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.1B
TOR@SF· 1-for-5
4TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #108
T16
Mike TroutCF
LAA@TEX· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #114
T16
George SpringerDH
TOR@SF· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #120
T16
Justin CrawfordCF
PHI@CIN· 2-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #128
T16
Seiya SuzukiRF
CHC@BAL· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #144
T16
José FermínLF
STLvsMIL· 1-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #150
T16
Michael ConfortoDH
CHC@BAL· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #152
T16
Brayan RocchioSS
CLE@MIN· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #173
T16
Rhys Hoskins1B
CLE@MIN· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #189
T16
Joey BartC
ATL@PIT· 1-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #192
T16
J.T. RealmutoC
PHI@CIN· 1-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #222
T16
Edouard Julien2B
COL@LAD· 1-for-2
4TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #227
T16
Tommy TroyLF
AZ@SD· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #254
T16
Carson KellyC
CHC@BAL· 1-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #258
T16
Coby Mayo3B
BALvsCHC· 1-for-1
4TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB
38
Jonathan Aranda1B
TBvsNYY· 2-for-3
3TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #15
T38
Freddie Freeman1B
LADvsCOL· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #19
T38
Otto LopezSS
MIAvsSEA· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #30
T38
Jordan WalkerRF
STLvsMIL· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #69
T38
Daylen LileLF
WSHvsHOU· 2-for-5
3TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #76
T38
Ceddanne RafaelaCF
BOS@CWS· 2-for-5
3TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #82
T38
Garrett MitchellCF
MIL@STL· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #103
T38
Isaac Paredes3B
HOU@WSH· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #105
T38
Spencer Steer1B
CINvsPHI· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #125
T38
Caleb Durbin3B
BOS@CWS· 2-for-3
3TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #142
T38
Gabriel MorenoC
AZ@SD· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #154
T38
Dylan BeaversRF
BALvsCHC· 2-for-3
3TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #168
T38
Nolan Arenado3B
AZ@SD· 3-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #176
T38
Denzer Guzman3B
LAA@TEX· 2-for-5
3TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #182
T38
Joshua Kuroda-Grauer3B
ATH@DET· 3-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #195
T38
Edwin Arroyo2B
CINvsPHI· 1-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #234
54
Carter JensenC
KC@NYM· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #7
T54
Michael Harris IICF
ATL@PIT· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #8
T54
Jake McCarthyLF
COL@LAD· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #9
T54
Fernando Tatis Jr.RF
SDvsAZ· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #24
T54
Chase DeLauterRF
CLE@MIN· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #29
T54
Jac CaglianoneRF
KC@NYM· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #37
T54
Brooks Lee3B
MINvsCLE· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #39
T54
Jake Cronenworth2B
SDvsAZ· 1-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #49
T54
Tommy Edman2B
LADvsCOL· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #50
T54
Masyn WinnSS
STLvsMIL· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #61
T54
Nathan LukesRF
TOR@SF· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #66
T54
Max Muncy3B
LADvsCOL· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #70
T54
Carson BengeRF
NYMvsKC· 2-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #86
T54
Gabriel Rincones Jr.RF
PHI@CIN· 1-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #95
T54
Christian Walker1B
HOU@WSH· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #107
T54
Taylor WardDH
BALvsCHC· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #111
T54
Tyler SoderstromLF
ATH@DET· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #130
T54
Riley GreeneLF
DETvsATH· 2-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #132
T54
Luke Keaschall2B
MINvsCLE· 1-for-2
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #136
T54
Jackson MerrillCF
SDvsAZ· 2-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #137
T54
Heriberto HernándezLF
MIAvsSEA· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #145
T54
Wilyer AbreuRF
BOS@CWS· 1-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #146
T54
Daulton VarshoCF
TOR@SF· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #153
T54
Yainer DiazC
HOU@WSH· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #155
T54
Lane ThomasLF
KC@NYM· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #158
T54
Jorbit Vivas3B
WSHvsHOU· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #172
T54
Jasson DomínguezRF
NYY@TB· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #178
T54
Mike YastrzemskiLF
ATL@PIT· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #180
T54
Max KeplerLF
AZ@SD· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #198
T54
Zach DezenzoLF
HOU@WSH· 2-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #205
T54
Nick Loftin3B
KC@NYM· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #208
T54
Lawrence ButlerRF
ATH@DET· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #213
T54
Jose SiriCF
LAA@TEX· 2-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #229
T54
Cooper PrattSS
MIL@STL· 2-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #236
T54
Javier Sanoja3B
MIAvsSEA· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #237
T54
Joey OrtizSS
MIL@STL· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #240
T54
Alan RodenRF
MINvsCLE· 2-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #241
T54
Austin HedgesC
CLE@MIN· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #249
T54
Tsung-Che ChengSS
BOS@CWS· 2-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #255
T54
Luisangel AcuñaSS
CWSvsBOS· 2-for-2
2TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #261
94
Dillon DinglerC
DETvsATH· 1-for-1
1TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #4
T94
Brandon MarshLF
PHI@CIN· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #6
T94
Heliot RamosLF
SFvsTOR· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #11
T94
Dominic CanzoneDH
SEA@MIA· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #21
T94
J.P. CrawfordSS
SEA@MIA· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #22
T94
Ben RiceDH
NYY@TB· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #23
T94
Mookie BettsSS
LADvsCOL· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #27
T94
Cal RaleighC
SEA@MIA· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #32
T94
Ozzie Albies2B
ATL@PIT· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #33
T94
Bo Bichette3B
NYMvsKC· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #38
T94
Brandon Lowe2B
PITvsATL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #41
T94
Adley RutschmanC
BALvsCHC· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #45
T94
Ryan O'HearnRF
PITvsATL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #46
T94
TJ Rumfield1B
COL@LAD· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #47
T94
Ernie Clement2B
TOR@SF· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #48
T94
Josh BellDH
MINvsCLE· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #57
T94
Ketel Marte2B
AZ@SD· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #60
T94
Michael Busch1B
CHC@BAL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #64
T94
Kevin McGonigleSS
DETvsATH· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #79
T94
Bobby Witt Jr.SS
KC@NYM· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #80
T94
Josh Naylor1B
SEA@MIA· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #84
T94
Francisco LindorSS
NYMvsKC· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #85
T94
Christian YelichDH
MIL@STL· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #94
T94
Michael Massey2B
KC@NYM· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #97
T94
Drake BaldwinC
ATL@PIT· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #99
T94
Bryan ReynoldsLF
PITvsATL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #100
T94
Ian HappLF
CHC@BAL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #104
T94
Chandler SimpsonLF
TBvsNYY· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #112
T94
Luke RaleyRF
SEA@MIA· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #115
T94
Jorge PolancoDH
NYMvsKC· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #117
T94
Amed Rosario3B
NYY@TB· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #124
T94
Kyle TuckerRF
LADvsCOL· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #126
T94
Alec Bohm3B
PHI@CIN· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #133
T94
Masataka YoshidaDH
BOS@CWS· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #134
T94
Josh Smith2B
TEXvsLAA· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #138
T94
Isaac CollinsLF
KC@NYM· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #140
T94
Travis Bazzana2B
CLE@MIN· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #141
T94
Chase Meidroth2B
CWSvsBOS· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #151
T94
Francisco AlvarezC
NYMvsKC· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #156
T94
Ildemaro Vargas1B
AZ@SD· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #162
T94
Sam AntonacciLF
CWSvsBOS· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #166
T94
Victor CaratiniC
MINvsCLE· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #167
T94
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.LF
AZ@SD· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #175
T94
Blaze Alexander3B
BALvsCHC· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #183
T94
Dansby SwansonSS
CHC@BAL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #184
T94
Salvador PerezDH
KC@NYM· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #185
T94
Brice MatthewsCF
HOU@WSH· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #187
T94
Brett Baty3B
NYMvsKC· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #188
T94
Luis LaraRF
MIL@STL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #190
T94
Sung-Mun Song2B
SDvsAZ· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #193
T94
Blaze Jordan3B
STLvsMIL· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #199
T94
Nick FortesC
TBvsNYY· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #200
T94
Keibert RuizC
WSHvsHOU· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #206
T94
Alejandro KirkC
TOR@SF· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #210
T94
Josh LoweLF
LAA@TEX· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #214
T94
Nick AllenSS
HOU@WSH· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #217
T94
Carlos CortesRF
ATH@DET· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #218
T94
Dylan CrewsRF
WSHvsHOU· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #225
T94
Marcell OzunaDH
PITvsATL· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #230
T94
Edmundo SosaLF
PHI@CIN· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #231
T94
Carlos NarváezC
BOS@CWS· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #239
T94
Anthony VolpeSS
NYY@TB· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #242
T94
Andrés GiménezSS
TOR@SF· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #248
T94
José CaballeroSS
NYY@TB· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #251
T94
Alejandro OsunaLF
TEXvsLAA· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #253
T94
Griffin ConineRF
MIAvsSEA· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB
T94
Romy GonzalezDH
BOS@CWS· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB
T94
Steven KwanLF
CLE@MIN· 1-for-1
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB

Best MLB Total Bases Matchups — Wednesday, July 8, 2026

Luis García Jr. (WSH) is the top total bases matchup on the Wednesday, July 8, 2026 board at 100, with Matt Vierling (DET) and Bryce Harper (PHI) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by total-base upside — the best power and extra-base spots — raw power, the arm and bullpen they face, batting order, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top total bases spot: Luis García Jr.

Luis García Jr. (WSH) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Spencer Arrighetti. The lefty is racking up bases at .553 TB/PA against righties this year — and 1.175 over the last two weeks, an elite bat that turns into a total base in about 60% of his trips. And Spencer Arrighetti has been getting squared up by righties lately — .619 total bases per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Spencer Arrighetti. It all sets up in a neutral park.

The rest of the top of the board

Matt Vierling (DET) (88) vs LHP Jeffrey Springs: a league-average bat at .365 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.586).
Bryce Harper (PHI) (88) vs RHP Chase Burns: a strong bat at .441 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.485), due to bounce back.
Dillon Dingler (DET) (87) vs LHP Jeffrey Springs: a solid bat at .385 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.586).
Junior Caminero (TB) (80) vs RHP Gerrit Cole: an excellent bat at .513 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.529), due to bounce back.
Brandon Marsh (PHI) (79) vs RHP Chase Burns: a strong bat at .450 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.485).
Carter Jensen (KC) (78) vs RHP Christian Scott: a solid bat at .382 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.538).
Michael Harris II (ATL) (78) vs RHP Jared Jones: a strong bat at .447 into an arm tough on the same side (.191), hot bat.

Arms giving up extra bases today

LHP Jeffrey Springs has been getting squared up by lefties — .428 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Matt Vierling (DET), Dillon Dingler (DET), and Spencer Torkelson (DET).
RHP Tyler Phillips has been vulnerable to righties — .418 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Dominic Canzone (SEA), J.P. Crawford (SEA), and Cal Raleigh (SEA).
RHP Roki Sasaki has been vulnerable to righties — .413 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Jake McCarthy (COL), Mickey Moniak (COL), and Cole Carrigg (COL).
RHP Christian Scott has been vulnerable to righties — .397 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Carter Jensen (KC), Jac Caglianone (KC), and Bobby Witt Jr. (KC).

Platoon edges to target

Luis García Jr. (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .553 against righties this year.
Matt Vierling (DET) — righty bat vs LHP, .390 against lefties this year.
Bryce Harper (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .530 against righties this year.
Dillon Dingler (DET) — righty bat vs LHP, .381 against lefties this year.
Brandon Marsh (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .502 against righties this year.

How it played out

6 of the top 10 total bases matchups landed at least one total base. Top play Luis García Jr. finished with 6 total bases. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these total bases matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's total bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

What the total bases board is

The Total Bases board projects how many bases a hitter racks up vs the posted total-bases line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

His extra-base pop vs this arm.
The park.
Recent contact quality.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Total bases grades right at break-even even when we tune it to the hilt — the book prices the marginal leans efficiently. Transparency board.

How to use it

See who the model projects for extra-base damage; no systematic edge to bet.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best total bases matchup today (Wednesday, July 8, 2026)?: Luis García Jr. (WSH) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Spencer Arrighetti. An elite bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB total bases matchups today (Wednesday, July 8, 2026)?: The top total bases matchups on Wednesday, July 8, 2026: Luis García Jr. (100), Matt Vierling (88), Bryce Harper (88), Dillon Dingler (87), Junior Caminero (80). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by total bases upside.
Did the top total bases matchup get a total base on Wednesday, July 8, 2026?: Yes — Luis García Jr. got 6 total bases.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Luis García Jr. (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .553 against righties this year. Matt Vierling (DET) — righty bat vs LHP, .390 against lefties this year. Bryce Harper (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .530 against righties this year. Dillon Dingler (DET) — righty bat vs LHP, .381 against lefties this year. Brandon Marsh (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .502 against righties this year.
Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?: LHP Jeffrey Springs has been getting squared up by lefties — .428 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Matt Vierling (DET), Dillon Dingler (DET), and Spencer Torkelson (DET). RHP Tyler Phillips has been vulnerable to righties — .418 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Dominic Canzone (SEA), J.P. Crawford (SEA), and Cal Raleigh (SEA). RHP Roki Sasaki has been vulnerable to righties — .413 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Jake McCarthy (COL), Mickey Moniak (COL), and Cole Carrigg (COL). RHP Christian Scott has been vulnerable to righties — .397 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Carter Jensen (KC), Jac Caglianone (KC), and Bobby Witt Jr. (KC).
How is the total bases matchup score calculated?: It's his bases-per-trip rate against that hand, recent form weighted heaviest, over a two-year baseline. Because this counts extra-base damage, slug matters as much as contact. Then the bullpen, order spot, and the yard. 0–100 across the slate.
What does TB/PA mean?: Total bases is 1 for a single, 2 for a double, 3 for a triple, 4 for a homer — so it rewards power, not just contact. Per plate appearance, around .37 is league average; .50+ is big-time slug. It's the cleanest power matchup we run: both the bat's slug and the arm's slug-against are real.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better. Total bases rewards the guys who do damage rather than just make contact, so this board leans slugger where the hits board leans average. It ranks today's spots, not the odds of any particular number.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a total base.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Total bases blends contact and power, so the platoon gap cuts twice: the opposite hand means both more balls in play and more of them driven. A hitter with a big split can swing a full base per game between the two matchups.
What are park factors?: Every extra foot of outfield is a base. Gaps and altitude turn singles into doubles and doubles into triples, while a small park trades the same batted ball for a home run. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a total base in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for total bases props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ total base" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against the box score. Total bases is one of the steadier props we publish — more ways to clear the line means less variance — and the top of the board beats the slate consistently. Every past date is auditable.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.