NFL Matchups
Projected score, spread and win probability for every NFL game in Week 5 — plus the quarterback and skill-player numbers behind each one.
Every game gets a moneyline pick. Spread, total and team total are graded only where the WizLine and the book's disagree enough to be saying something, so those counts run lower on purpose. Read them with their sample sizes: an NFL season is 272 games, and the moneyline takes the favourite most weeks — a healthy W-L there is what a favourite-heavy card looks like, not evidence on its own. Units at −110, one unit a pick, priced pre-kick. None of this is posted as a play.
Thursday, October 8
Tampa Bay BuccaneersBuccaneers033%+206WizLine21%market+360line+11.8%
Dallas CowboysCowboys0WizPick67%−206WizLine79%market−470line−11.8%Sunday, October 11
Philadelphia EaglesEagles022%+356WizLine25%market+290line−2.6%
Jacksonville JaguarsJaguars0WizPick78%−356WizLine75%market−370line+2.6%
Las Vegas RaidersRaiders038%+167WizLine36%market+164line+1.1%
New England PatriotsPatriots0WizPick62%−167WizLine64%market−196line−1.1%
Minnesota VikingsVikings0WizPick60%−152WizLine55%market−134line+5.2%
New Orleans SaintsSaints040%+152WizLine45%market+114line−5.2%
Houston TexansTexans0WizPick56%−127WizLine77%market−395line−20.7%
Tennessee TitansTitans044%+127WizLine23%market+310line+20.7%
Cincinnati BengalsBengals0WizPick63%−169WizLine73%market−325line−10.5%
Miami DolphinsDolphins037%+169WizLine27%market+260line+10.5%
Chicago BearsBears0WizPick51%−105WizLine54%market−130line−3.0%
Green Bay PackersPackers049%+105WizLine46%market+110line+3.0%
Cleveland BrownsBrowns0WizPick51%−103WizLine46%market+108line+4.5%
New York JetsJets049%+103WizLine54%market−126line−4.5%
Indianapolis ColtsColts044%+126WizLine43%market+120line+0.8%
Pittsburgh SteelersSteelers0WizPick56%−126WizLine57%market−145line−0.8%
New York GiantsGiants032%+208WizLine37%market+160line−4.3%
Washington CommandersCommanders0WizPick68%−208WizLine63%market−195line+4.3%
Denver BroncosBroncos049%+104WizLine62%market−180line−12.9%
Los Angeles ChargersChargers0WizPick51%−104WizLine38%market+152line+12.9%
Detroit LionsLions0WizPick52%−110WizLine69%market−250line−16.1%
Arizona CardinalsCardinals048%+110WizLine31%market+205line+16.1%
San Francisco 49ers49ers042%+138WizLine41%market+136line+1.4%
Seattle SeahawksSeahawks0WizPick58%−138WizLine59%market−162line−1.4%
Baltimore RavensRavens0WizPick50%−100WizLine39%market+144line+10.7%
Atlanta FalconsFalcons050%+100WizLine61%market−172line−10.7%Monday, October 12
Buffalo BillsBills038%+163WizLine41%market+136line−2.5%
Los Angeles RamsRams0WizPick62%−163WizLine59%market−164line+2.5%Projected points, spread and win probability come from a drive-level Monte Carlo built on play-by-play, snap counts and depth charts. Player lines are the same simulation read a different way — open a card to see them, with every market and the live box score. Every pick is graded at the book's line and the record is on this page. Model nfl-sim-1/19of20. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).