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NHL First Goal

Who opens the scoring. Almost entirely noise once you subtract it — the flattest board here, and honestly so.

Fri, Oct 23 · 2 games

99 skaters priced for the slate, 74 with a book line. The WizLine is the chance it happens tonight, from his shrunk rate at his projected minutes. Beside it: the line most books hang, the best price on each side and who has it. WizEdge is our chance minus the books' with the hold taken out. This one is quoted Yes-only, so its WizEdge is against the best Yes price with the hold still in it: conservative, not no-vig.

Games2
Position
Book
SkaterMatchupWizLine
1MTL @ CHI8:00 PMCole CaufieldRW19:51 projected TOIYesMGM+850−3.1%WizEdgeMTLMTL @ CHI8:00 PM7.4%+1244
2COL vs TBL9:00 PMNathan MacKinnonC21:17 projected TOIYesMGM+875−3.9%WizEdgeCOLCOL vs TBL9:00 PM6.3%+1482
3TBL @ COL9:00 PMBrandon HagelLW21:25 projected TOIYesFD+1200−2.0%WizEdgeTBLTBL @ COL9:00 PM5.7%+1657
4TBL @ COL9:00 PMNikita KucherovRW21:18 projected TOIYesMGM+1200−2.2%WizEdgeTBLTBL @ COL9:00 PM5.5%+1725
5COL vs TBL9:00 PMMartin NecasC20:24 projected TOIYesFD+1500−1.3%WizEdgeCOLCOL vs TBL9:00 PM4.9%+1933
6MTL @ CHI8:00 PMJuraj SlafkovskýLW19:14 projected TOIYesDK+1300−2.5%WizEdgeMTLMTL @ CHI8:00 PM4.7%+2032
7TBL @ COL9:00 PMJake GuentzelC20:08 projected TOIYesMGM+1300−2.5%WizEdgeTBLTBL @ COL9:00 PM4.7%+2037
8CHI vs MTL8:00 PMConnor BedardC20:23 projected TOIYesMGM+1200−3.2%WizEdgeCHICHI vs MTL8:00 PM4.5%+2122
9COL vs TBL9:00 PMArtturi LehkonenLW19:00 projected TOIYesFD+1600−1.5%WizEdgeCOLCOL vs TBL9:00 PM4.4%+2168
10COL vs TBL9:00 PMBrock NelsonC18:30 projected TOIYesDK+1900−1.0%WizEdgeCOLCOL vs TBL9:00 PM4.0%+2369
11CHI vs MTL8:00 PMTyler BertuzziLW17:19 projected TOIYesFD+1700−1.7%WizEdgeCHICHI vs MTL8:00 PM3.8%+2504
12MTL @ CHI8:00 PMAlex NewhookC16:12 projected TOIYesCZR+2100−1.0%WizEdgeMTLMTL @ CHI8:00 PM3.5%+2725
13CHI vs MTL8:00 PMRoman KantserovRW18:29 projected TOIYesMGM+1700−2.1%WizEdgeCHICHI vs MTL8:00 PM3.5%+2799
14TBL @ COL9:00 PMAnthony CirelliC17:04 projected TOIYesDK+2200−1.0%WizEdgeTBLTBL @ COL9:00 PM3.4%+2876
15MTL @ CHI8:00 PMChris KreiderLW15:11 projected TOIYesFD+1600−2.6%WizEdgeMTLMTL @ CHI8:00 PM3.3%+2940
16MTL @ CHI8:00 PMJosh AndersonRW14:08 projected TOIYesDK+2200−1.1%WizEdgeMTLMTL @ CHI8:00 PM3.2%+2996
17COL vs TBL9:00 PMGabriel LandeskogLW15:57 projected TOIYesFD+2200−1.2%WizEdgeCOLCOL vs TBL9:00 PM3.1%+3105
18CHI vs MTL8:00 PMPatrick KaneRW19:19 projected TOIYesFD+1800−2.2%WizEdgeCHICHI vs MTL8:00 PM3.1%+3115
19TBL @ COL9:00 PMBrayden PointC18:39 projected TOIYesFD+1500−3.2%WizEdgeTBLTBL @ COL9:00 PM3.1%+3136
20CHI vs MTL8:00 PMFrank NazarC17:02 projected TOIYesDK+2200−1.3%WizEdgeCHICHI vs MTL8:00 PM3.1%+3147
21MTL @ CHI8:00 PMZachary BolducRW13:51 projected TOIYesDK+2200−1.4%WizEdgeMTLMTL @ CHI8:00 PM2.9%+3290
22COL vs TBL9:00 PMNazem KadriC20:21 projected TOIYesDK+1900−2.2%WizEdgeCOLCOL vs TBL9:00 PM2.8%+3446
23MTL @ CHI8:00 PMSamuel PoulinRW13:49 projected TOINo line yetMTLMTL @ CHI8:00 PM2.8%+3446
24MTL @ CHI8:00 PMOliver KapanenC12:11 projected TOIYesDK+1900−2.2%WizEdgeMTLMTL @ CHI8:00 PM2.8%+3459
25CHI vs MTL8:00 PMAnton FrondellC16:59 projected TOIYesDK+2000−2.0%WizEdgeCHICHI vs MTL8:00 PM2.8%+3523
26COL vs TBL9:00 PMT.J. HughesRW14:51 projected TOIYesFD+2500−1.2%WizEdgeCOLCOL vs TBL9:00 PM2.6%+3702
27COL vs TBL9:00 PMJaden SchwartzLW14:03 projected TOIYesMGM+2200−1.8%WizEdgeCOLCOL vs TBL9:00 PM2.6%+3776
28COL vs TBL9:00 PMParker KellyC12:49 projected TOIYesDK+4000+0.1%WizEdgeCOLCOL vs TBL9:00 PM2.5%+3884
29TBL @ COL9:00 PMIlya MikheyevRW15:11 projected TOIYesDK+3000−0.7%WizEdgeTBLTBL @ COL9:00 PM2.5%+3932
30MTL @ CHI8:00 PMAlexandre TexierLW13:22 projected TOIYesFD+2700−1.1%WizEdgeMTLMTL @ CHI8:00 PM2.5%+3949

Not a play. Every one of these is graded against the closing line the morning after, and nothing is posted until a market beats the book on a full season, out of sample. We're still tuning this market, so its record isn't shown here yet — the grading runs every morning all the same.

2026-27 · the rate behind it

715 skaters over 2026-27, 1,634 hours of ice time. Per-game odds, shrunk toward the league base by 200 games of prior — solved from this season, not a checked-in number.

SkaterTeamPer game
1SJSMason MarchmentLW11 GP · 15:46 TOI · 3 timesLeague 2.8%SJSSJS4.0%per game
2OTTTim StützleC11 GP · 22:00 TOI · 3 timesLeague 2.8%OTTOTT4.0%per game
3VGKVictor OlofssonLW4 GP · 13:08 TOI · 2 timesLeague 2.8%VGKVGK3.7%per game
4LAKAlex LaferriereRW8 GP · 18:47 TOI · 2 timesLeague 2.8%LAKLAK3.6%per game
5CBJKent JohnsonC8 GP · 17:26 TOI · 2 timesLeague 2.8%CBJCBJ3.6%per game
6EDMLeon DraisaitlC10 GP · 21:42 TOI · 2 timesLeague 2.8%EDMEDM3.6%per game
7NJDEvan RodriguesC10 GP · 15:27 TOI · 2 timesLeague 2.8%NJDNJD3.6%per game
8DALJason RobertsonLW10 GP · 20:16 TOI · 2 timesLeague 2.8%DALDAL3.6%per game
9DALMiro HeiskanenD10 GP · 26:02 TOI · 2 timesLeague 2.8%DALDAL3.6%per game
10NJDArseny GritsyukRW10 GP · 15:21 TOI · 2 timesLeague 2.8%NJDNJD3.6%per game
11WPGCole PerfettiC10 GP · 18:38 TOI · 2 timesLeague 2.8%WPGWPG3.6%per game
12STLMason McTavishC10 GP · 15:42 TOI · 2 timesLeague 2.8%STLSTL3.6%per game
13ANABeckett SenneckeRW10 GP · 20:55 TOI · 2 timesLeague 2.8%ANAANA3.6%per game
14SEAJordan EberleRW11 GP · 16:27 TOI · 2 timesLeague 2.8%SEASEA3.6%per game
15BOSCasey MittelstadtC11 GP · 13:47 TOI · 2 timesLeague 2.8%BOSBOS3.6%per game
16MINMatt BoldyLW11 GP · 22:02 TOI · 2 timesLeague 2.8%MINMIN3.6%per game
17PITNick RobertsonLW11 GP · 12:29 TOI · 2 timesLeague 2.8%PITPIT3.6%per game
18BOSFraser MintenC11 GP · 16:28 TOI · 2 timesLeague 2.8%BOSBOS3.6%per game
19MINDanila YurovRW11 GP · 14:11 TOI · 2 timesLeague 2.8%MINMIN3.6%per game
20NYRSean DurziD12 GP · 20:09 TOI · 2 timesLeague 2.8%NYRNYR3.5%per game
21VANLinus KarlssonC12 GP · 14:14 TOI · 2 timesLeague 2.8%VANVAN3.5%per game
22VANPaul CotterLW12 GP · 15:01 TOI · 2 timesLeague 2.8%VANVAN3.5%per game
23NYRAlexis LafrenièreLW12 GP · 19:01 TOI · 2 timesLeague 2.8%NYRNYR3.5%per game
24PHIMatvei MichkovRW12 GP · 15:07 TOI · 2 timesLeague 2.8%PHIPHI3.5%per game
25PHICole KnubleRW2 GP · 12:04 TOI · 1 timeLeague 2.8%PHIPHI3.2%per game
26MINNick FolignoLW3 GP · 9:57 TOI · 1 timeLeague 2.8%MINMIN3.2%per game
27PHIRasmus RistolainenD3 GP · 18:17 TOI · 1 timeLeague 2.8%PHIPHI3.2%per game
28CHIConnor BedardC3 GP · 20:18 TOI · 1 timeLeague 2.8%CHICHI3.2%per game
29CBJDamon SeversonD6 GP · 23:35 TOI · 1 timeLeague 2.8%CBJCBJ3.2%per game
30TORNick BlankenburgD6 GP · 13:05 TOI · 1 timeLeague 2.8%TORTOR3.2%per game

This is a measured rate, not a model. The number is real — it's what he did, shrunk so a short sample doesn't masquerade as a hot one — but nothing here has been fitted and scored against a season it hadn't seen. Shots on goal is the only board that has.

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