Best MLB earned runs matchups — Tuesday, May 26, 2026
Every starting pitcher on the Tuesday, May 26, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by projected earned runs allowed. Run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Results show how each call played out.
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload9.5 BF
Expected batters faced9.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.1 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Graham Pauley (L)11.7%1.4
2. Liam Hicks (L)11.7%1.0
3. Otto Lopez (R)11.7%1.0
4. Kyle Stowers (L)11.7%1.0
5. Connor Norby (R)11.7%1.0
6. Jakob Marsee (L)11.7%1.0
7. Heriberto Hernández (R)11.7%1.0
8. Joe Mack (L)11.7%1.0
9. Javier Sanoja (R)11.7%1.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 0.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+200-300
We project 1.1 ER vs the 0.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload14.1 BF
Expected batters faced14.1
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Taylor Ward (R)11.7%2.0
2. Gunnar Henderson (L)11.7%2.0
3. Pete Alonso (R)11.7%2.0
4. Samuel Basallo (L)11.7%2.0
5. Leody Taveras (L)11.7%2.0
6. Jeremiah Jackson (R)11.7%1.1
7. Colton Cowser (L)11.7%1.0
8. Blaze Alexander (R)11.7%1.0
9. Jackson Holliday (L)11.7%1.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-145+100
BOVBovada-125-115
DKDraftKings-120-110
FANFanatics-125-115
We project 1.6 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload15.7 BF
Expected batters faced15.7
From recent starts4
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.8 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Trent Grisham (L)11.7%2.0
2. Max Schuemann (R)11.7%2.0
3. José Caballero (R)11.7%2.0
4. Paul Goldschmidt (R)11.7%2.0
5. Ben Rice (L)11.7%2.0
6. Amed Rosario (R)11.7%2.0
7. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)11.7%1.7
8. Anthony Volpe (R)11.7%1.0
9. Austin Wells (L)11.7%1.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-105-135
We project 1.8 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)6.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload20.2 BF
Expected batters faced20.2
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.3 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Blake Dunn (R)11.7%3.0
2. Elly De La Cruz (R)11.7%3.0
3. Sal Stewart (R)11.7%2.2
4. Spencer Steer (R)11.7%2.0
5. Eugenio Suárez (R)11.7%2.0
6. Dane Myers (R)11.7%2.0
7. JJ Bleday (L)11.7%2.0
8. Tyler Stephenson (R)11.7%2.0
9. Matt McLain (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+100-140
DKDraftKings+104-138
We project 2.3 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload20.7 BF
Expected batters faced20.7
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.3 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Max Muncy (L)11.7%3.0
2. Andy Pages (R)11.7%3.0
3. Freddie Freeman (L)11.7%2.7
4. Mookie Betts (R)11.7%2.0
5. Kyle Tucker (L)11.7%2.0
6. Alex Call (R)11.7%2.0
7. Will Smith (R)11.7%2.0
8. Miguel Rojas (R)11.7%2.0
9. Hyeseong Kim (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 3.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-118-118
DKDraftKings+104-138
FANFanatics-120-120
We project 2.3 ER vs the 3.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.0 BF
Expected batters faced21.0
From recent starts3
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.4 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Joc Pederson (L)11.7%3.0
2. Alejandro Osuna (L)11.7%3.0
3. Brandon Nimmo (L)11.7%3.0
4. Josh Jung (R)11.7%2.0
5. Jake Burger (R)11.7%2.0
6. Evan Carter (L)11.7%2.0
7. Ezequiel Duran (R)11.7%2.0
8. Justin Foscue (R)11.7%2.0
9. Kyle Higashioka (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-125-115
DKDraftKings-102-130
FANFanatics-125-115
We project 2.4 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.0 BF
Expected batters faced21.0
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.4 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Sterlin Thompson (L)11.7%3.0
2. Tyler Freeman (R)11.7%3.0
3. Ezequiel Tovar (R)11.7%3.0
4. Brett Sullivan (L)11.7%2.0
5. Braxton Fulford (R)11.7%2.0
6. Jake McCarthy (L)11.7%2.0
7. Kyle Karros (R)11.7%2.0
8. Troy Johnston (L)11.7%2.0
9. Chad Stevens (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)22.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.1 BF
Expected batters faced21.1
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.4 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. JJ Wetherholt (L)11.7%3.0
2. Iván Herrera (R)11.7%3.0
3. Jordan Walker (R)11.7%3.0
4. Alec Burleson (L)11.7%2.1
5. José Fermín (R)11.7%2.0
6. Masyn Winn (R)11.7%2.0
7. Bryan Torres (L)11.7%2.0
8. Nolan Gorman (L)11.7%2.0
9. Victor Scott II (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-150+105
DKDraftKings-140+105
FANFanatics-150+105
We project 2.4 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)23.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.2 BF
Expected batters faced21.2
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.4 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Edgar Quero (L)11.7%3.0
2. Munetaka Murakami (L)11.7%3.0
3. Miguel Vargas (R)11.7%3.0
4. Colson Montgomery (L)11.7%2.2
5. Chase Meidroth (R)11.7%2.0
6. Randal Grichuk (R)11.7%2.0
7. Derek Hill (R)11.7%2.0
8. Luisangel Acuña (R)11.7%2.0
9. Rikuu Nishida (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-175+120
BOVBovada-175+135
DKDraftKings-178+133
We project 2.4 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.5 BF
Expected batters faced21.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.4 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Ronald Acuña Jr. (R)11.7%3.0
2. Mauricio Dubón (R)11.7%3.0
3. Matt Olson (L)11.7%3.0
4. Ozzie Albies (R)11.7%2.5
5. Austin Riley (R)11.7%2.0
6. Mike Yastrzemski (L)11.7%2.0
7. Michael Harris II (L)11.7%2.0
8. Ha-Seong Kim (R)11.7%2.0
9. Chadwick Tromp (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+105-150
DKDraftKings+115-153
We project 2.4 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.5%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.6 BF
Expected batters faced21.6
From recent starts4
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.4 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Jarren Duran (L)11.7%3.0
2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)11.7%3.0
3. Wilyer Abreu (L)11.7%3.0
4. Willson Contreras (R)11.7%2.6
5. Masataka Yoshida (L)11.7%2.0
6. Mickey Gasper (L)11.7%2.0
7. Nick Sogard (L)11.7%2.0
8. Andruw Monasterio (R)11.7%2.0
9. Isiah Kiner-Falefa (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+100-140
DKDraftKings+104-137
FANFanatics+100-140
We project 2.4 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.0 BF
Expected batters faced22.0
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. James Wood (L)11.7%3.0
2. Curtis Mead (R)11.7%3.0
3. Andrés Chaparro (R)11.7%3.0
4. CJ Abrams (L)11.7%3.0
5. Dylan Crews (R)11.7%2.0
6. Daylen Lile (L)11.7%2.0
7. Jacob Young (R)11.7%2.0
8. Nasim Nuñez (R)11.7%2.0
9. Keibert Ruiz (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-160+115
DKDraftKings-154+116
We project 2.5 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.3 BF
Expected batters faced22.3
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Christian Yelich (L)11.7%3.0
2. Jackson Chourio (R)11.7%3.0
3. Brice Turang (L)11.7%3.0
4. William Contreras (R)11.7%3.0
5. Jake Bauers (L)11.7%2.3
6. Garrett Mitchell (L)11.7%2.0
7. Luis Rengifo (L)11.7%2.0
8. Sal Frelick (L)11.7%2.0
9. David Hamilton (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-115-125
DKDraftKings-120-111
We project 2.5 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.5%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.4 BF
Expected batters faced22.4
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)11.7%3.0
2. Xander Bogaerts (R)11.7%3.0
3. Bryce Johnson (L)11.7%3.0
4. Manny Machado (R)11.7%3.0
5. Miguel Andujar (R)11.7%2.4
6. Jackson Merrill (L)11.7%2.0
7. Ty France (R)11.7%2.0
8. Ramón Laureano (R)11.7%2.0
9. Rodolfo Durán (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-105-135
BOVBovada-105-135
DKDraftKings+114-151
FANFanatics-105-135
We project 2.5 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.5 BF
Expected batters faced22.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Kyle Schwarber (L)11.7%3.0
2. Trea Turner (R)11.7%3.0
3. Bryce Harper (L)11.7%3.0
4. Adolis García (R)11.7%3.0
5. Alec Bohm (R)11.7%2.5
6. Bryson Stott (L)11.7%2.0
7. J.T. Realmuto (R)11.7%2.0
8. Justin Crawford (L)11.7%2.0
9. Edmundo Sosa (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-110-130
DKDraftKings+108-144
We project 2.5 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.5%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.5 BF
Expected batters faced22.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Zach Neto (R)11.7%3.0
2. Mike Trout (R)11.7%3.0
3. Vaughn Grissom (R)11.7%3.0
4. Jorge Soler (R)11.7%3.0
5. Jose Siri (R)11.7%2.5
6. Jo Adell (R)11.7%2.0
7. Oswald Peraza (R)11.7%2.0
8. Donovan Walton (L)11.7%2.0
9. Logan O'Hoppe (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+110-155
DKDraftKings+104-138
FANFanatics+110-155
We project 2.5 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.7 BF
Expected batters faced22.7
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Travis Bazzana (L)11.7%3.0
2. José Ramírez (L)11.7%3.0
3. Chase DeLauter (L)11.7%3.0
4. Kyle Manzardo (L)11.7%3.0
5. Petey Halpin (L)11.7%2.7
6. Angel Martínez (L)11.7%2.0
7. Steven Kwan (L)11.7%2.0
8. David Fry (R)11.7%2.0
9. Brayan Rocchio (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-175+125
DKDraftKings-164+123
FANFanatics-180+125
We project 2.6 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.8 BF
Expected batters faced22.8
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Byron Buxton (R)11.7%3.0
2. Brooks Lee (L)11.7%3.0
3. Josh Bell (L)11.7%3.0
4. Kody Clemens (L)11.7%3.0
5. Austin Martin (R)11.7%2.8
6. Victor Caratini (L)11.7%2.0
7. Ryan Kreidler (R)11.7%2.0
8. Luke Keaschall (R)11.7%2.0
9. James Outman (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+105-150
BOVBovada+110-150
DKDraftKings+127-170
FANFanatics+105-150
We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.0 BF
Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts0
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Konnor Griffin (R)11.7%3.0
2. Jared Triolo (R)11.7%3.0
3. Jhostynxon Garcia (R)11.7%3.0
4. Nick Gonzales (R)11.7%3.0
5. Jake Mangum (R)11.7%3.0
6. Marcell Ozuna (R)11.7%2.0
7. Esmerlyn Valdez (R)11.7%2.0
8. Spencer Horwitz (L)11.7%2.0
9. Henry Davis (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-175+125
DKDraftKings-173+130
FANFanatics-180+125
We project 2.6 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)21.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.0 BF
Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Carson Benge (L)11.7%3.0
2. Bo Bichette (R)11.7%3.0
3. Juan Soto (L)11.7%3.0
4. A.J. Ewing (L)11.7%3.0
5. Mark Vientos (R)11.7%3.0
6. Eric Wagaman (R)11.7%2.0
7. Marcus Semien (R)11.7%2.0
8. MJ Melendez (L)11.7%2.0
9. Luis Torrens (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-155+110
BOVBovada-145+105
DKDraftKings-155+116
FANFanatics-155+110
We project 2.6 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.0 BF
Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts0
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. J.P. Crawford (L)11.7%3.0
2. Julio Rodríguez (R)11.7%3.0
3. Randy Arozarena (R)11.7%3.0
4. Josh Naylor (L)11.7%3.0
5. Rob Refsnyder (R)11.7%3.0
6. Mitch Garver (R)11.7%2.0
7. Cole Young (L)11.7%2.0
8. Luke Raley (L)11.7%2.0
9. Colt Emerson (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.2 BF
Expected batters faced23.2
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Henry Bolte (R)11.7%3.0
2. Nick Kurtz (L)11.7%3.0
3. Shea Langeliers (R)11.7%3.0
4. Brent Rooker (R)11.7%3.0
5. Tyler Soderstrom (L)11.7%3.0
6. Alika Williams (R)11.7%2.2
7. Zack Gelof (R)11.7%2.0
8. Lawrence Butler (L)11.7%2.0
9. Darell Hernaiz (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-165+115
DKDraftKings-157+118
FANFanatics-165+115
We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.4 BF
Expected batters faced23.4
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Kevin Alcántara (R)11.7%3.0
2. Nico Hoerner (R)11.7%3.0
3. Michael Busch (L)11.7%3.0
4. Pedro Ramírez (L)11.7%3.0
5. Ian Happ (L)11.7%3.0
6. Seiya Suzuki (R)11.7%2.4
7. Moisés Ballesteros (L)11.7%2.0
8. Carson Kelly (R)11.7%2.0
9. Dansby Swanson (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.5 BF
Expected batters faced23.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Ketel Marte (L)11.7%3.0
2. Corbin Carroll (L)11.7%3.0
3. Geraldo Perdomo (L)11.7%3.0
4. Jose Fernandez (R)11.7%3.0
5. Ryan Waldschmidt (R)11.7%3.0
6. Ildemaro Vargas (L)11.7%2.5
7. Gabriel Moreno (R)11.7%2.0
8. Tim Tawa (R)11.7%2.0
9. Jorge Barrosa (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+115-165
BOVBovada+125-165
DKDraftKings+117-155
We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.9 BF
Expected batters faced23.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Jeremy Peña (R)11.7%3.0
2. Isaac Paredes (R)11.7%3.0
3. Yordan Alvarez (L)11.7%3.0
4. Christian Walker (R)11.7%3.0
5. Jake Meyers (R)11.7%3.0
6. Cam Smith (R)11.7%2.9
7. Zach Dezenzo (R)11.7%2.0
8. Brice Matthews (R)11.7%2.0
9. Nick Allen (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+110-155
BOVBovada+115-155
We project 2.7 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.0 BF
Expected batters faced24.0
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Starling Marte (R)11.7%3.0
2. Tyler Tolbert (R)11.7%3.0
3. Michael Massey (L)11.7%3.0
4. Isaac Collins (L)11.7%3.0
5. Carter Jensen (L)11.7%3.0
6. Lane Thomas (R)11.7%3.0
7. Jac Caglianone (L)11.7%2.0
8. Nick Loftin (R)11.7%2.0
9. Kyle Isbel (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-185+130
DKDraftKings-156+117
FANFanatics-185+130
We project 2.7 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.5 BF
Expected batters faced24.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.8 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Willy Adames (R)11.7%3.0
2. Casey Schmitt (R)11.7%3.0
3. Matt Chapman (R)11.7%3.0
4. Rafael Devers (L)11.7%3.0
5. Harrison Bader (R)11.7%3.0
6. Will Brennan (L)11.7%3.0
7. Bryce Eldridge (L)11.7%2.5
8. Luis Arraez (L)11.7%2.0
9. Drew Gilbert (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-110-135
DKDraftKings-121-110
FANFanatics-125-115
We project 2.8 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.8 BF
Expected batters faced24.8
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.8 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Chandler Simpson (L)11.7%3.0
2. Junior Caminero (R)11.7%3.0
3. Jonathan Aranda (L)11.7%3.0
4. Yandy Díaz (R)11.7%3.0
5. Ryan Vilade (R)11.7%3.0
6. Cedric Mullins (L)11.7%3.0
7. Victor Mesa Jr. (L)11.7%2.8
8. Hunter Feduccia (L)11.7%2.0
9. Oliver Dunn (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-105-135
BOVBovada+100-140
DKDraftKings-106-125
We project 2.8 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload25.0 BF
Expected batters faced25.0
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.8 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. George Springer (R)11.7%3.0
2. Daulton Varsho (L)11.7%3.0
3. Jesús Sánchez (L)11.7%3.0
4. Kazuma Okamoto (R)11.7%3.0
5. Yohendrick Piñango (L)11.7%3.0
6. Ernie Clement (R)11.7%3.0
7. Andrés Giménez (L)11.7%3.0
8. Brandon Valenzuela (L)11.7%2.0
9. Lenyn Sosa (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-140+100
DKDraftKings-134+101
FANFanatics-140+100
We project 2.8 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload25.1 BF
Expected batters faced25.1
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.8 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Kevin McGonigle (L)11.7%3.0
2. Dillon Dingler (R)11.7%3.0
3. Riley Greene (L)11.7%3.0
4. Jahmai Jones (R)11.7%3.0
5. Spencer Torkelson (R)11.7%3.0
6. Zach McKinstry (L)11.7%3.0
7. Hao-Yu Lee (R)11.7%3.0
8. Matt Vierling (R)11.7%2.1
9. Wenceel Pérez (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-160+110
DKDraftKings-147+111
We project 2.8 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
26 with a ERLive count — updates as games play
1
Jason AlexanderP
HOU@TEX· proj #6
9ERFinal
2
Kyle FreelandP
COL@LAD· proj #5
8ERFinal
T2
Jordan WicksP
CHC@PIT· proj #19
8ERFinal
T2
Sandy AlcantaraP
MIA@TOR· proj #29
8ERFinal
5
Bailey FalterP
KCvsNYY· proj #3
7ERFinal
6
David PetersonP
NYMvsCIN· proj #4
6ERFinal
7
Ranger SuarezP
BOSvsATL· proj #10
5ERFinal
T7
Michael McGreevyP
STL@MIL· proj #13
5ERFinal
T7
Jack KochanowiczP
LAA@DET· proj #30
5ERFinal
10
Joey CantilloP
CLEvsWSH· proj #12
4ERFinal
T10
Randy VásquezP
SDvsPHI· proj #15
4ERFinal
T10
Keider MonteroP
DETvsLAA· proj #16
4ERFinal
T10
Gage JumpP
ATHvsSEA· proj #21
4ERFinal
T10
Jack LeiterP
TEXvsHOU· proj #25
4ERFinal
15
Spencer StriderP
ATL@BOS· proj #11
3ERFinal
T15
Tyler MahleP
SFvsAZ· proj #24
3ERFinal
17
Joe RyanP
MIN@CWS· proj #9
2ERFinal
T17
Aaron NolaP
PHI@SD· proj #14
2ERFinal
T17
Sean BurkeP
CWSvsMIN· proj #18
2ERFinal
T17
Chase BurnsP
CIN@NYM· proj #20
2ERFinal
T17
Eduardo RodriguezP
AZ@SF· proj #27
2ERFinal
22
Griffin JaxP
TB@BAL· proj #2
1ERFinal
T22
Eric LauerP
LADvsCOL· proj #7
1ERFinal
T22
Cade CavalliP
WSH@CLE· proj #17
1ERFinal
T22
Cam SchlittlerP
NYY@KC· proj #26
1ERFinal
T22
Shane BazP
BALvsTB· proj #28
1ERFinal
How the board graded
Share of our top-ranked hitters that hit the mark, next to the season-to-date rate.
Top 5
1/520%
season 52%-32 pts-4% ROI
Top 10
2/922%
season 52%-30 pts-6% ROI
Top 20
8/1942%
season building
Top 50
12/2744%
season building
Full slate
12/2744%
season 49%-5 pts-9% ROI
“Hit” is the green check on the card — the mark. Pools are our pre-game top-ranked matchups; only settled (final) outcomes count. Season-to-date is every graded day this season.
Best MLB Earned Runs Matchups — Tuesday, May 26, 2026
Braydon Fisher (TOR) is the top earned runs spot on the Tuesday, May 26, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 1.1 ER, with Griffin Jax (TB) right behind. Every starter is ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. It's the read DFS and pitcher-prop players make before lock.
Top spot: Braydon Fisher
Braydon Fisher (TOR) tops the Tuesday, May 26, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 1.1 ER vs MIA. Run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes.
The rest of the top of the board
Griffin Jax (TB) (70) — about 1.6 ER vs BAL.
Bailey Falter (KC) (60) — about 1.8 ER vs NYY.
David Peterson (NYM) (31) — about 2.3 ER vs CIN.
Kyle Freeland (COL) (28) — about 2.3 ER vs LAD.
Jason Alexander (HOU) (26) — about 2.4 ER vs TEX.
How it played out
The top 10 starts averaged 3.9 ER. Braydon Fisher finished with 0. Every projection is graded against the box score.
How to read the earned runs board
Each starter's score (0–100) ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. We project a earned runs count for the start and grade it against what actually happened.
Which pitcher has the best earned runs matchup today (Tuesday, May 26, 2026)?
Braydon Fisher (TOR) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 1.1 ER against MIA.
What are the best pitcher earned runs props today?
The top projected starts on Tuesday, May 26, 2026: Braydon Fisher (~1.1 ER), Griffin Jax (~1.6 ER), Bailey Falter (~1.8 ER), David Peterson (~2.3 ER), Kyle Freeland (~2.3 ER). The full board ranks every starter.
How is the earned runs score calculated?
Ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected earned runs count alongside, and graded against the box score.
Can I use this for pitcher props or DFS?
Yes — the board surfaces the best earned runs spots and projects a number. Where there's a posted line we show the over/under and which side our projection leans. We show the data and grade it, not picks.
