Best MLB earned runs matchups — Saturday, May 30, 2026
Every starting pitcher on the Saturday, May 30, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by projected earned runs allowed. Run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Results show how each call played out.
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload12.6 BF
Expected batters faced12.6
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.4 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Carson Benge (L)11.7%2.0
2. Bo Bichette (R)11.7%2.0
3. Juan Soto (L)11.7%2.0
4. Jared Young (L)11.7%1.6
5. Mark Vientos (R)11.7%1.0
6. A.J. Ewing (L)11.7%1.0
7. Marcus Semien (R)11.7%1.0
8. Vidal Bruján (L)11.7%1.0
9. Hayden Senger (R)11.7%1.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-140+100
DKDraftKings-118-112
We project 1.4 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload15.5 BF
Expected batters faced15.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. JJ Wetherholt (L)11.7%2.0
2. Iván Herrera (R)11.7%2.0
3. Alec Burleson (L)11.7%2.0
4. Jordan Walker (R)11.7%2.0
5. Nolan Gorman (L)11.7%2.0
6. Masyn Winn (R)11.7%2.0
7. Jimmy Crooks (L)11.7%1.4
8. Bryan Torres (L)11.7%1.0
9. Victor Scott II (L)11.7%1.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-160+115
BOVBovada-155+115
DKDraftKings-133+100
FANFanatics-165+115
We project 1.7 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload18.3 BF
Expected batters faced18.3
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.1 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Blake Dunn (R)11.7%2.3
2. Elly De La Cruz (R)11.7%2.0
3. Sal Stewart (R)11.7%2.0
4. Eugenio Suárez (R)11.7%2.0
5. Spencer Steer (R)11.7%2.0
6. JJ Bleday (L)11.7%2.0
7. Tyler Stephenson (R)11.7%2.0
8. Matt McLain (R)11.7%2.0
9. TJ Friedl (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-120-118
DKDraftKings-114-116
We project 2.1 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload19.6 BF
Expected batters faced19.6
From recent starts5
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.2 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Willy Adames (R)11.7%3.0
2. Luis Arraez (L)11.7%2.6
3. Casey Schmitt (R)11.7%2.0
4. Rafael Devers (L)11.7%2.0
5. Jung Hoo Lee (L)11.7%2.0
6. Matt Chapman (R)11.7%2.0
7. Bryce Eldridge (L)11.7%2.0
8. Eric Haase (R)11.7%2.0
9. Drew Gilbert (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-115-120
DKDraftKings-127-105
FANFanatics-115-125
We project 2.2 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload20.3 BF
Expected batters faced20.3
From recent starts6
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.3 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Xavier Edwards (L)11.7%3.0
2. Liam Hicks (L)11.7%3.0
3. Otto Lopez (R)11.7%2.3
4. Kyle Stowers (L)11.7%2.0
5. Jakob Marsee (L)11.7%2.0
6. Leo Jiménez (R)11.7%2.0
7. Owen Caissie (L)11.7%2.0
8. Christopher Morel (R)11.7%2.0
9. Joe Mack (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-140+100
DKDraftKings-147+110
FANFanatics-140+100
We project 2.3 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload20.9 BF
Expected batters faced20.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.4 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Jeremy Peña (R)11.7%3.0
2. Yordan Alvarez (L)11.7%3.0
3. Christian Walker (R)11.7%2.9
4. Taylor Trammell (L)11.7%2.0
5. Isaac Paredes (R)11.7%2.0
6. Cam Smith (R)11.7%2.0
7. Nick Allen (R)11.7%2.0
8. Jake Meyers (R)11.7%2.0
9. Christian Vázquez (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+120-175
DKDraftKings+111-147
FANFanatics+120-170
We project 2.4 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.0 BF
Expected batters faced21.0
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.4 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Travis Bazzana (L)11.7%3.0
2. José Ramírez (L)11.7%3.0
3. Chase DeLauter (L)11.7%3.0
4. Rhys Hoskins (R)11.7%2.0
5. Stuart Fairchild (R)11.7%2.0
6. David Fry (R)11.7%2.0
7. Petey Halpin (L)11.7%2.0
8. Austin Hedges (R)11.7%2.0
9. Brayan Rocchio (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-185+125
BOVBovada-170+130
DKDraftKings-143+108
FANFanatics-180+125
We project 2.4 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.9 BF
Expected batters faced21.9
From recent starts6
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Taylor Ward (R)11.7%3.0
2. Gunnar Henderson (L)11.7%3.0
3. Adley Rutschman (L)11.7%3.0
4. Pete Alonso (R)11.7%2.9
5. Samuel Basallo (L)11.7%2.0
6. Coby Mayo (R)11.7%2.0
7. Leody Taveras (L)11.7%2.0
8. Jackson Holliday (L)11.7%2.0
9. Colton Cowser (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+105-150
FANFanatics+110-155
We project 2.5 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)7.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.9 BF
Expected batters faced21.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Kevin McGonigle (L)11.7%3.0
2. Dillon Dingler (R)11.7%3.0
3. Gage Workman (L)11.7%3.0
4. Riley Greene (L)11.7%2.9
5. Spencer Torkelson (R)11.7%2.0
6. Colt Keith (L)11.7%2.0
7. Wenceel Pérez (R)11.7%2.0
8. Hao-Yu Lee (R)11.7%2.0
9. Zach McKinstry (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+105-150
BOVBovada+110-150
DKDraftKings+116-154
FANFanatics+105-150
We project 2.5 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.9 BF
Expected batters faced21.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Carter Jensen (L)11.7%3.0
2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)11.7%3.0
3. Tyler Tolbert (R)11.7%3.0
4. Vinnie Pasquantino (L)11.7%2.9
5. Salvador Perez (R)11.7%2.0
6. Jac Caglianone (L)11.7%2.0
7. Isaac Collins (L)11.7%2.0
8. Lane Thomas (R)11.7%2.0
9. Nick Loftin (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+105-150
DKDraftKings+116-155
We project 2.5 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.1 BF
Expected batters faced22.1
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Ronald Acuña Jr. (R)11.7%3.0
2. Michael Harris II (L)11.7%3.0
3. Matt Olson (L)11.7%3.0
4. Ozzie Albies (L)11.7%3.0
5. Dominic Smith (L)11.7%2.1
6. Mauricio Dubón (R)11.7%2.0
7. Mike Yastrzemski (L)11.7%2.0
8. Jorge Mateo (R)11.7%2.0
9. Chadwick Tromp (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-140+100
DKDraftKings-127-104
FANFanatics-140+100
We project 2.5 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.2 BF
Expected batters faced22.2
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Trent Grisham (L)11.7%3.0
2. Ben Rice (L)11.7%3.0
3. Aaron Judge (R)11.7%3.0
4. Cody Bellinger (L)11.7%3.0
5. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)11.7%2.2
6. Paul Goldschmidt (R)11.7%2.0
7. Ryan McMahon (L)11.7%2.0
8. J.C. Escarra (L)11.7%2.0
9. Anthony Volpe (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-140-105
BOVBovada-140+100
DKDraftKings-148+112
FANFanatics-165+115
We project 2.5 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.5 BF
Expected batters faced22.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Adam Frazier (L)11.7%3.0
2. Mike Trout (R)11.7%3.0
3. Vaughn Grissom (R)11.7%3.0
4. Jorge Soler (R)11.7%3.0
5. Jose Siri (R)11.7%2.5
6. Jo Adell (R)11.7%2.0
7. Oswald Peraza (R)11.7%2.0
8. Donovan Walton (L)11.7%2.0
9. Sebastián Rivero (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-140+100
DKDraftKings-134+101
We project 2.5 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.6 BF
Expected batters faced22.6
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Clayton Beeter (R)11.7%3.0
2. Luis García Jr. (L)11.7%3.0
3. Daylen Lile (L)11.7%3.0
4. CJ Abrams (L)11.7%3.0
5. Jacob Young (R)11.7%2.6
6. Jorbit Vivas (L)11.7%2.0
7. Dylan Crews (R)11.7%2.0
8. Drew Millas (L)11.7%2.0
9. Curtis Mead (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+120-165
DKDraftKings+123-164
FANFanatics+120-170
We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.8 BF
Expected batters faced22.8
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)11.7%3.0
2. Nico Hoerner (R)11.7%3.0
3. Michael Busch (L)11.7%3.0
4. Alex Bregman (R)11.7%3.0
5. Ian Happ (L)11.7%2.8
6. Seiya Suzuki (R)11.7%2.0
7. Moisés Ballesteros (L)11.7%2.0
8. Miguel Amaya (R)11.7%2.0
9. Dansby Swanson (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-118-118
BOVBovada-110-130
DKDraftKings-106-126
We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.8 BF
Expected batters faced22.8
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Jake McCarthy (L)11.7%3.0
2. TJ Rumfield (L)11.7%3.0
3. Hunter Goodman (R)11.7%3.0
4. Willi Castro (L)11.7%3.0
5. Troy Johnston (L)11.7%2.8
6. Ezequiel Tovar (R)11.7%2.0
7. Kyle Karros (R)11.7%2.0
8. Tyler Freeman (R)11.7%2.0
9. Brett Sullivan (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 3.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+105-150
DKDraftKings+106-141
We project 2.6 ER vs the 3.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.0 BF
Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Jarren Duran (L)11.7%3.0
2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)11.7%3.0
3. Wilyer Abreu (L)11.7%3.0
4. Willson Contreras (R)11.7%3.0
5. Marcelo Mayer (L)11.7%3.0
6. Masataka Yoshida (L)11.7%2.0
7. Isiah Kiner-Falefa (R)11.7%2.0
8. Connor Wong (R)11.7%2.0
9. Caleb Durbin (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-155+110
DKDraftKings-137+103
We project 2.6 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.0 BF
Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Kyle Schwarber (L)11.7%3.0
2. Trea Turner (R)11.7%3.0
3. Bryce Harper (L)11.7%3.0
4. Steward Berroa (L)11.7%3.0
5. Alec Bohm (R)11.7%3.0
6. Bryson Stott (L)11.7%2.0
7. J.T. Realmuto (R)11.7%2.0
8. Adolis García (R)11.7%2.0
9. Justin Crawford (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-110-125
BOVBovada-105-135
DKDraftKings-116-114
We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.1 BF
Expected batters faced23.1
From recent starts7
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. George Springer (R)11.7%3.0
2. Nathan Lukes (L)11.7%3.0
3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)11.7%3.0
4. Daulton Varsho (L)11.7%3.0
5. Kazuma Okamoto (R)11.7%3.0
6. Myles Straw (R)11.7%2.1
7. Ernie Clement (R)11.7%2.0
8. Andrés Giménez (L)11.7%2.0
9. Tyler Heineman (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+115-165
DKDraftKings+112-149
We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.4 BF
Expected batters faced23.4
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Byron Buxton (R)11.7%3.0
2. Brooks Lee (L)11.7%3.0
3. Josh Bell (L)11.7%3.0
4. Kody Clemens (L)11.7%3.0
5. Austin Martin (R)11.7%3.0
6. James Outman (L)11.7%2.4
7. Orlando Arcia (R)11.7%2.0
8. Luke Keaschall (R)11.7%2.0
9. Ryan Kreidler (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+110-155
DKDraftKings+103-136
We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.4 BF
Expected batters faced23.4
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Ketel Marte (L)11.7%3.0
2. Corbin Carroll (L)11.7%3.0
3. Geraldo Perdomo (L)11.7%3.0
4. Gabriel Moreno (R)11.7%3.0
5. Adrian Del Castillo (L)11.7%3.0
6. Ryan Waldschmidt (R)11.7%2.4
7. Ildemaro Vargas (L)11.7%2.0
8. Jose Fernandez (R)11.7%2.0
9. Tommy Troy (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-165+115
BOVBovada-165+125
DKDraftKings-154+116
FANFanatics-165+115
We project 2.6 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.5 BF
Expected batters faced23.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Shohei Ohtani (L)11.7%3.0
2. Andy Pages (R)11.7%3.0
3. Freddie Freeman (L)11.7%3.0
4. Mookie Betts (R)11.7%3.0
5. Kyle Tucker (L)11.7%3.0
6. Will Smith (R)11.7%2.5
7. Max Muncy (L)11.7%2.0
8. Alex Call (R)11.7%2.0
9. Dalton Rushing (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-110-130
DKDraftKings-104-128
FANFanatics-110-130
We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.5 BF
Expected batters faced23.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Chase Meidroth (R)11.7%3.0
2. Miguel Vargas (R)11.7%3.0
3. Colson Montgomery (L)11.7%3.0
4. Tristan Peters (L)11.7%3.0
5. Edgar Quero (R)11.7%3.0
6. Andrew Benintendi (L)11.7%2.5
7. Luisangel Acuña (R)11.7%2.0
8. Sam Antonacci (L)11.7%2.0
9. Rikuu Nishida (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-165+120
DKDraftKings-169+127
We project 2.7 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.5 BF
Expected batters faced23.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. J.P. Crawford (L)11.7%3.0
2. Julio Rodríguez (R)11.7%3.0
3. Josh Naylor (L)11.7%3.0
4. Randy Arozarena (R)11.7%3.0
5. Luke Raley (L)11.7%3.0
6. Cole Young (L)11.7%2.5
7. Dominic Canzone (L)11.7%2.0
8. Mitch Garver (R)11.7%2.0
9. Colt Emerson (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+105-150
BOVBovada+110-150
DKDraftKings+104-138
We project 2.7 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.7 BF
Expected batters faced23.7
From recent starts7
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Christian Yelich (L)11.7%3.0
2. Jackson Chourio (R)11.7%3.0
3. Brice Turang (L)11.7%3.0
4. William Contreras (R)11.7%3.0
5. Jake Bauers (L)11.7%3.0
6. Andrew Vaughn (R)11.7%2.7
7. Garrett Mitchell (L)11.7%2.0
8. Gary Sánchez (R)11.7%2.0
9. David Hamilton (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-110-130
DKDraftKings-127-104
We project 2.7 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.7 BF
Expected batters faced23.7
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Lawrence Butler (L)11.7%3.0
2. Nick Kurtz (L)11.7%3.0
3. Shea Langeliers (R)11.7%3.0
4. Brent Rooker (R)11.7%3.0
5. Tyler Soderstrom (L)11.7%3.0
6. Henry Bolte (R)11.7%2.7
7. Zack Gelof (R)11.7%2.0
8. Darell Hernaiz (R)11.7%2.0
9. Alika Williams (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-118-120
DKDraftKings-116-114
We project 2.7 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.5%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.0 BF
Expected batters faced24.0
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Spencer Horwitz (L)11.7%3.0
2. Tyler Callihan (L)11.7%3.0
3. Bryan Reynolds (L)11.7%3.0
4. Nick Gonzales (R)11.7%3.0
5. Oneil Cruz (L)11.7%3.0
6. Konnor Griffin (R)11.7%3.0
7. Endy Rodríguez (L)11.7%2.0
8. Jake Mangum (L)11.7%2.0
9. Jared Triolo (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-118-120
BOVBovada-120-120
DKDraftKings-115-115
FANFanatics-120-120
We project 2.7 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.1 BF
Expected batters faced24.1
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)11.7%3.0
2. Gavin Sheets (L)11.7%3.0
3. Miguel Andujar (R)11.7%3.0
4. Manny Machado (R)11.7%3.0
5. Jackson Merrill (L)11.7%3.0
6. Xander Bogaerts (R)11.7%3.0
7. Ty France (R)11.7%2.1
8. Ramón Laureano (R)11.7%2.0
9. Rodolfo Durán (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-110-130
DKDraftKings-105-126
We project 2.7 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)22.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.1 BF
Expected batters faced24.1
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Yandy Díaz (R)11.7%3.0
2. Jonathan Aranda (L)11.7%3.0
3. Junior Caminero (R)11.7%3.0
4. Victor Mesa Jr. (L)11.7%3.0
5. Chandler Simpson (L)11.7%3.0
6. Ben Williamson (R)11.7%3.0
7. Nick Fortes (R)11.7%2.1
8. Cedric Mullins (L)11.7%2.0
9. Taylor Walls (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-110-130
DKDraftKings+104-138
FANFanatics-110-130
We project 2.7 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.8 BF
Expected batters faced24.8
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.8 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Joc Pederson (L)11.7%3.0
2. Josh Jung (R)11.7%3.0
3. Brandon Nimmo (L)11.7%3.0
4. Jake Burger (R)11.7%3.0
5. Ezequiel Duran (R)11.7%3.0
6. Sam Haggerty (L)11.7%3.0
7. Danny Jansen (R)11.7%2.8
8. Justin Foscue (R)11.7%2.0
9. Michael Helman (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-118-120
BOVBovada-120-120
DKDraftKings-115-115
FANFanatics-120-120
We project 2.8 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
26 with a ERLive count — updates as games play
1
Mitch KellerP
PITvsMIN· proj #20
7ERFinal
T1
Bailey OberP
MIN@PIT· proj #27
7ERFinal
3
Brandon SproatP
MIL@HOU· proj #6
5ERFinal
T3
Drew RasmussenP
TBvsLAA· proj #13
5ERFinal
T3
Michael KingP
SD@WSH· proj #14
5ERFinal
T3
Ryan WeathersP
NYY@ATH· proj #26
5ERFinal
7
Adrian HouserP
SF@COL· proj #16
4ERFinal
T7
Framber ValdezP
DET@CWS· proj #23
4ERFinal
T7
Ryne NelsonP
AZ@SEA· proj #24
4ERFinal
10
Tyler PhillipsP
MIA@NYM· proj #1
3ERFinal
T10
Brady SingerP
CINvsATL· proj #11
3ERFinal
T10
Foster GriffinP
WSHvsSD· proj #28
3ERFinal
T10
Reid DetmersP
LAA@TB· proj #29
3ERFinal
14
Martín PérezP
ATL@CIN· proj #3
2ERFinal
T14
Brandon YoungP
BALvsTOR· proj #19
2ERFinal
T14
Jesús LuzardoP
PHI@LAD· proj #22
2ERFinal
T14
Peter LambertP
HOUvsMIL· proj #25
2ERFinal
18
Ben BrownP
CHC@STL· proj #2
1ERFinal
T18
Christian ScottP
NYMvsMIA· proj #5
1ERFinal
T18
Sonny GrayP
BOS@CLE· proj #7
1ERFinal
T18
Trey YesavageP
TOR@BAL· proj #8
1ERFinal
T18
Anthony KayP
CWSvsDET· proj #9
1ERFinal
T18
Kyle LeahyP
STLvsCHC· proj #15
1ERFinal
T18
Parker MessickP
CLEvsBOS· proj #17
1ERFinal
T18
Roki SasakiP
LADvsPHI· proj #18
1ERFinal
T18
Seth LugoP
KC@TEX· proj #30
1ERFinal
How the board graded
Share of our top-ranked hitters that hit the mark, next to the season-to-date rate.
Top 5
2/540%
season 52%-12 pts-4% ROI
Top 10
5/1050%
season 52%-2 pts-6% ROI
Top 20
8/2040%
season building
Top 50
14/3047%
season building
Full slate
14/3047%
season 49%-2 pts-9% ROI
“Hit” is the green check on the card — the mark. Pools are our pre-game top-ranked matchups; only settled (final) outcomes count. Season-to-date is every graded day this season.
Best MLB Earned Runs Matchups — Saturday, May 30, 2026
Tyler Phillips (MIA) is the top earned runs spot on the Saturday, May 30, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 1.4 ER, with Ben Brown (CHC) right behind. Every starter is ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. It's the read DFS and pitcher-prop players make before lock.
Top spot: Tyler Phillips
Tyler Phillips (MIA) tops the Saturday, May 30, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 1.4 ER vs NYM. Run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes.
The rest of the top of the board
Ben Brown (CHC) (77) — about 1.7 ER vs STL.
Martín Pérez (ATL) (54) — about 2.1 ER vs CIN.
Ryan Feltner (COL) (43) — about 2.2 ER vs SF.
Christian Scott (NYM) (37) — about 2.3 ER vs MIA.
Brandon Sproat (MIL) (32) — about 2.4 ER vs HOU.
How it played out
The top 10 starts averaged 1.5 ER. Tyler Phillips finished with 3. Every projection is graded against the box score.
How to read the earned runs board
Each starter's score (0–100) ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. We project a earned runs count for the start and grade it against what actually happened.
Which pitcher has the best earned runs matchup today (Saturday, May 30, 2026)?
Tyler Phillips (MIA) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 1.4 ER against NYM.
What are the best pitcher earned runs props today?
The top projected starts on Saturday, May 30, 2026: Tyler Phillips (~1.4 ER), Ben Brown (~1.7 ER), Martín Pérez (~2.1 ER), Ryan Feltner (~2.2 ER), Christian Scott (~2.3 ER). The full board ranks every starter.
How is the earned runs score calculated?
Ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected earned runs count alongside, and graded against the box score.
Can I use this for pitcher props or DFS?
Yes — the board surfaces the best earned runs spots and projects a number. Where there's a posted line we show the over/under and which side our projection leans. We show the data and grade it, not picks.
