Best MLB earned runs matchups — Sunday, May 31, 2026
Every starting pitcher on the Sunday, May 31, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by projected earned runs allowed. Run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Results show how each call played out.
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload8.8 BF
Expected batters faced8.8
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.0 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Carson Benge (L)11.7%1.0
2. MJ Melendez (L)11.7%1.0
3. Vidal Bruján (R)11.7%1.0
4. Jared Young (L)11.7%1.0
5. Mark Vientos (R)11.7%1.0
6. A.J. Ewing (L)11.7%1.0
7. Brett Baty (L)11.7%1.0
8. Marcus Semien (R)11.7%1.0
9. Luis Torrens (R)11.7%0.8
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload13.9 BF
Expected batters faced13.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Taylor Ward (R)11.7%2.0
2. Gunnar Henderson (L)11.7%2.0
3. Adley Rutschman (L)11.7%2.0
4. Pete Alonso (R)11.7%2.0
5. Samuel Basallo (L)11.7%1.9
6. Leody Taveras (L)11.7%1.0
7. Colton Cowser (L)11.7%1.0
8. Blaze Alexander (R)11.7%1.0
9. Jackson Holliday (L)11.7%1.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-165+115
DKDraftKings-143+107
FANFanatics-165+115
We project 1.6 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload19.1 BF
Expected batters faced19.1
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.2 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Jonah Cox (R)11.7%3.0
2. Rafael Devers (L)11.7%2.1
3. Luis Arraez (L)11.7%2.0
4. Willy Adames (R)11.7%2.0
5. Victor Bericoto (R)11.7%2.0
6. Matt Chapman (R)11.7%2.0
7. Bryce Eldridge (L)11.7%2.0
8. Jesus Rodriguez (R)11.7%2.0
9. Drew Gilbert (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 3.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-115-125
DKDraftKings+102-136
FANFanatics-110-130
We project 2.2 ER vs the 3.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload19.1 BF
Expected batters faced19.1
From recent starts6
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.2 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Christian Yelich (L)11.7%3.0
2. Garrett Mitchell (L)11.7%2.1
3. Brice Turang (L)11.7%2.0
4. Blake Perkins (L)11.7%2.0
5. Jake Bauers (L)11.7%2.0
6. Gary Sánchez (R)11.7%2.0
7. Sal Frelick (L)11.7%2.0
8. David Hamilton (L)11.7%2.0
9. Joey Ortiz (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+105-155
DKDraftKings+117-155
We project 2.2 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.0 BF
Expected batters faced21.0
From recent starts5
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.4 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. James Wood (L)11.7%3.0
2. Andrés Chaparro (R)11.7%3.0
3. Curtis Mead (R)11.7%3.0
4. CJ Abrams (L)11.7%2.0
5. Daylen Lile (L)11.7%2.0
6. Jacob Young (R)11.7%2.0
7. José Tena (L)11.7%2.0
8. Nasim Nuñez (L)11.7%2.0
9. Keibert Ruiz (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-110-130
DKDraftKings-116-115
We project 2.4 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.0 BF
Expected batters faced21.0
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.4 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Paul Goldschmidt (R)11.7%3.0
2. Ben Rice (L)11.7%3.0
3. Ryan McMahon (L)11.7%3.0
4. Cody Bellinger (L)11.7%2.0
5. José Caballero (R)11.7%2.0
6. Trent Grisham (L)11.7%2.0
7. Anthony Volpe (R)11.7%2.0
8. Max Schuemann (R)11.7%2.0
9. Austin Wells (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-165+120
BOVBovada-165+125
FANFanatics-165+115
We project 2.4 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.5 BF
Expected batters faced21.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.4 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Zach Neto (R)11.7%3.0
2. Mike Trout (R)11.7%3.0
3. Vaughn Grissom (R)11.7%3.0
4. Jorge Soler (R)11.7%2.5
5. Jo Adell (R)11.7%2.0
6. Oswald Peraza (R)11.7%2.0
7. Wade Meckler (L)11.7%2.0
8. Logan O'Hoppe (R)11.7%2.0
9. Donovan Walton (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-155+110
DKDraftKings-120-111
FANFanatics-155+110
We project 2.4 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.5 BF
Expected batters faced21.5
From recent starts5
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.4 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Blake Dunn (R)11.7%3.0
2. Matt McLain (R)11.7%3.0
3. JJ Bleday (L)11.7%3.0
4. Sal Stewart (R)11.7%2.5
5. Eugenio Suárez (R)11.7%2.0
6. Nathaniel Lowe (L)11.7%2.0
7. Spencer Steer (R)11.7%2.0
8. Will Benson (L)11.7%2.0
9. P.J. Higgins (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-118-120
DKDraftKings-103-129
FANFanatics-120-120
We project 2.4 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.6 BF
Expected batters faced21.6
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.4 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)11.7%3.0
2. Gavin Sheets (L)11.7%3.0
3. Manny Machado (R)11.7%3.0
4. Xander Bogaerts (R)11.7%2.6
5. Jackson Merrill (L)11.7%2.0
6. Ty France (R)11.7%2.0
7. Nick Castellanos (R)11.7%2.0
8. Sung-Mun Song (L)11.7%2.0
9. Rodolfo Durán (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-145+100
DKDraftKings-148+111
FANFanatics-140+100
We project 2.4 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.8 BF
Expected batters faced21.8
From recent starts3
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Ketel Marte (L)11.7%3.0
2. Corbin Carroll (L)11.7%3.0
3. Geraldo Perdomo (L)11.7%3.0
4. Nolan Arenado (R)11.7%2.8
5. Ryan Waldschmidt (R)11.7%2.0
6. Ildemaro Vargas (L)11.7%2.0
7. Jose Fernandez (R)11.7%2.0
8. Gabriel Moreno (R)11.7%2.0
9. Tommy Troy (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-118-120
DKDraftKings-125-106
FANFanatics-120-120
We project 2.5 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.2 BF
Expected batters faced22.2
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Travis Bazzana (L)11.7%3.0
2. José Ramírez (R)11.7%3.0
3. Chase DeLauter (L)11.7%3.0
4. Rhys Hoskins (R)11.7%3.0
5. David Fry (R)11.7%2.2
6. Kyle Manzardo (L)11.7%2.0
7. Petey Halpin (L)11.7%2.0
8. Austin Hedges (R)11.7%2.0
9. Brayan Rocchio (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-165+120
DKDraftKings-172+129
FANFanatics-170+120
We project 2.5 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.5%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.3 BF
Expected batters faced22.3
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Shohei Ohtani (L)11.7%3.0
2. Andy Pages (R)11.7%3.0
3. Santiago Espinal (R)11.7%3.0
4. Mookie Betts (R)11.7%3.0
5. Kyle Tucker (L)11.7%2.3
6. Max Muncy (L)11.7%2.0
7. Alex Call (R)11.7%2.0
8. Dalton Rushing (L)11.7%2.0
9. Alex Freeland (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
DKDraftKings-161+121
We project 2.5 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.4 BF
Expected batters faced22.4
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Nico Hoerner (R)11.7%3.0
2. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)11.7%3.0
3. Alex Bregman (R)11.7%3.0
4. Seiya Suzuki (R)11.7%3.0
5. Ian Happ (R)11.7%2.4
6. Carson Kelly (R)11.7%2.0
7. Michael Busch (L)11.7%2.0
8. Michael Conforto (L)11.7%2.0
9. Dansby Swanson (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-105-135
DKDraftKings-102-129
We project 2.5 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.7 BF
Expected batters faced22.7
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Jeremy Peña (R)11.7%3.0
2. Yordan Alvarez (L)11.7%3.0
3. Christian Walker (R)11.7%3.0
4. Taylor Trammell (L)11.7%3.0
5. Isaac Paredes (R)11.7%2.7
6. Cam Smith (R)11.7%2.0
7. Jake Meyers (R)11.7%2.0
8. Nick Allen (R)11.7%2.0
9. César Salazar (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+100-145
DKDraftKings+115-153
FANFanatics+100-140
We project 2.6 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.7 BF
Expected batters faced22.7
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Willi Castro (R)11.7%3.0
2. Tyler Freeman (R)11.7%3.0
3. Troy Johnston (L)11.7%3.0
4. Brett Sullivan (L)11.7%3.0
5. Edouard Julien (L)11.7%2.7
6. Kyle Karros (R)11.7%2.0
7. Sterlin Thompson (L)11.7%2.0
8. Braxton Fulford (R)11.7%2.0
9. Chad Stevens (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 3.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+100-145
BOVBovada+105-145
DKDraftKings+100-133
We project 2.6 ER vs the 3.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.7 BF
Expected batters faced22.7
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Carlos Cortes (L)11.7%3.0
2. Brent Rooker (R)11.7%3.0
3. Nick Kurtz (L)11.7%3.0
4. Henry Bolte (R)11.7%3.0
5. Jonah Heim (L)11.7%2.7
6. Lawrence Butler (L)11.7%2.0
7. Zack Gelof (R)11.7%2.0
8. Jeff McNeil (L)11.7%2.0
9. Darell Hernaiz (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-105-135
BOVBovada+100-140
DKDraftKings-120-110
We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.0 BF
Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Jarren Duran (L)11.7%3.0
2. Willson Contreras (R)11.7%3.0
3. Wilyer Abreu (L)11.7%3.0
4. Masataka Yoshida (L)11.7%3.0
5. Isiah Kiner-Falefa (R)11.7%3.0
6. Caleb Durbin (R)11.7%2.0
7. Marcelo Mayer (L)11.7%2.0
8. Connor Wong (R)11.7%2.0
9. Carlos Narváez (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
DKDraftKings-175+131
We project 2.6 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.0 BF
Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts4
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Ronald Acuña Jr. (R)11.7%3.0
2. Michael Harris II (L)11.7%3.0
3. Matt Olson (L)11.7%3.0
4. Ozzie Albies (R)11.7%3.0
5. Mauricio Dubón (R)11.7%3.0
6. Austin Riley (R)11.7%2.0
7. Dominic Smith (L)11.7%2.0
8. Mike Yastrzemski (L)11.7%2.0
9. Sandy León (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-105-140
BOVBovada+100-140
DKDraftKings+100-132
We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.0 BF
Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Sam Antonacci (L)11.7%3.0
2. Miguel Vargas (R)11.7%3.0
3. Andrew Benintendi (L)11.7%3.0
4. Colson Montgomery (L)11.7%3.0
5. Chase Meidroth (R)11.7%3.0
6. Jacob Gonzalez (L)11.7%2.0
7. Tristan Peters (L)11.7%2.0
8. Drew Romo (L)11.7%2.0
9. Luisangel Acuña (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-110-130
DKDraftKings+114-151
We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.2 BF
Expected batters faced23.2
From recent starts1
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. JJ Wetherholt (L)11.7%3.0
2. Iván Herrera (R)11.7%3.0
3. Jordan Walker (R)11.7%3.0
4. Nelson Velázquez (R)11.7%3.0
5. Alec Burleson (L)11.7%3.0
6. Masyn Winn (R)11.7%2.3
7. Victor Scott II (L)11.7%2.0
8. Nolan Gorman (L)11.7%2.0
9. Pedro Pagés (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+100-145
DKDraftKings+108-144
FANFanatics+100-140
We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.3 BF
Expected batters faced23.3
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Hao-Yu Lee (R)11.7%3.0
2. Kevin McGonigle (L)11.7%3.0
3. Spencer Torkelson (R)11.7%3.0
4. Jahmai Jones (R)11.7%3.0
5. Riley Greene (L)11.7%3.0
6. Matt Vierling (R)11.7%2.3
7. Wenceel Pérez (L)11.7%2.0
8. Zach McKinstry (L)11.7%2.0
9. Jake Rogers (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+115-165
BOVBovada+125-165
FANFanatics+115-165
We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.5 BF
Expected batters faced23.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Xavier Edwards (L)11.7%3.0
2. Liam Hicks (L)11.7%3.0
3. Otto Lopez (R)11.7%3.0
4. Leo Jiménez (R)11.7%3.0
5. Javier Sanoja (R)11.7%3.0
6. Jakob Marsee (L)11.7%2.5
7. Connor Norby (R)11.7%2.0
8. Heriberto Hernández (R)11.7%2.0
9. Esteury Ruiz (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-175+125
FANFanatics-180+125
We project 2.6 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.7 BF
Expected batters faced23.7
From recent starts3
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Spencer Horwitz (L)11.7%3.0
2. Brandon Lowe (L)11.7%3.0
3. Jhostynxon Garcia (R)11.7%3.0
4. Ryan O'Hearn (L)11.7%3.0
5. Nick Gonzales (R)11.7%3.0
6. Oneil Cruz (L)11.7%2.7
7. Jake Mangum (L)11.7%2.0
8. Jared Triolo (R)11.7%2.0
9. Henry Davis (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-105-135
DKDraftKings+105-139
FANFanatics-105-135
We project 2.7 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.5%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.8 BF
Expected batters faced23.8
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Nathan Lukes (L)11.7%3.0
2. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)11.7%3.0
3. Myles Straw (R)11.7%3.0
4. Kazuma Okamoto (R)11.7%3.0
5. Ernie Clement (R)11.7%3.0
6. Yohendrick Piñango (L)11.7%2.8
7. Charles McAdoo (R)11.7%2.0
8. Andrés Giménez (L)11.7%2.0
9. Brandon Valenzuela (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+125-175
DKDraftKings+120-160
We project 2.7 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.5 BF
Expected batters faced24.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.8 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Yandy Díaz (R)11.7%3.0
2. Jonathan Aranda (L)11.7%3.0
3. Richie Palacios (L)11.7%3.0
4. Junior Caminero (R)11.7%3.0
5. Chandler Simpson (L)11.7%3.0
6. Victor Mesa Jr. (L)11.7%3.0
7. Cedric Mullins (L)11.7%2.5
8. Nick Fortes (R)11.7%2.0
9. Taylor Walls (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-140+100
DKDraftKings-137+103
We project 2.8 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.5 BF
Expected batters faced24.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.8 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Starling Marte (R)11.7%3.0
2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)11.7%3.0
3. Vinnie Pasquantino (L)11.7%3.0
4. Salvador Perez (R)11.7%3.0
5. Jac Caglianone (L)11.7%3.0
6. Isaac Collins (L)11.7%3.0
7. Michael Massey (L)11.7%2.5
8. Nick Loftin (R)11.7%2.0
9. Lane Thomas (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+100-140
BOVBovada+100-140
DKDraftKings+106-140
FANFanatics+100-140
We project 2.8 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.6 BF
Expected batters faced24.6
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.8 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Joc Pederson (L)11.7%3.0
2. Josh Jung (R)11.7%3.0
3. Brandon Nimmo (L)11.7%3.0
4. Jake Burger (R)11.7%3.0
5. Ezequiel Duran (R)11.7%3.0
6. Alejandro Osuna (L)11.7%3.0
7. Kyle Higashioka (R)11.7%2.6
8. Nicky Lopez (L)11.7%2.0
9. Michael Helman (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+100-140
DKDraftKings+115-153
We project 2.8 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.9 BF
Expected batters faced24.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.8 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Kyle Schwarber (L)11.7%3.0
2. Garrett Stubbs (L)11.7%3.0
3. Edmundo Sosa (R)11.7%3.0
4. Brandon Marsh (L)11.7%3.0
5. Alec Bohm (R)11.7%3.0
6. Bryson Stott (L)11.7%3.0
7. Rafael Marchán (L)11.7%2.9
8. Steward Berroa (L)11.7%2.0
9. Justin Crawford (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+125-175
DKDraftKings+123-164
FANFanatics+125-180
We project 2.8 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload25.1 BF
Expected batters faced25.1
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.8 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. J.P. Crawford (L)11.7%3.0
2. Julio Rodríguez (R)11.7%3.0
3. Josh Naylor (L)11.7%3.0
4. Randy Arozarena (R)11.7%3.0
5. Luke Raley (L)11.7%3.0
6. Cole Young (L)11.7%3.0
7. Victor Robles (R)11.7%3.0
8. Jhonny Pereda (R)11.7%2.1
9. Colt Emerson (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+100-145
DKDraftKings-108-122
We project 2.8 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload25.3 BF
Expected batters faced25.3
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.9 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Austin Martin (R)11.7%3.0
2. Brooks Lee (L)11.7%3.0
3. Kody Clemens (L)11.7%3.0
4. James Outman (L)11.7%3.0
5. Trevor Larnach (L)11.7%3.0
6. Orlando Arcia (R)11.7%3.0
7. Luke Keaschall (R)11.7%3.0
8. Tristan Gray (L)11.7%2.3
9. Alex Jackson (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-105-140
DKDraftKings+106-141
We project 2.9 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
22 with a ERLive count — updates as games play
1
Jacob LopezP
ATHvsNYY· proj #6
7ERFinal
T1
Zebby MatthewsP
MIN@PIT· proj #23
7ERFinal
3
Spencer MilesP
TOR@BAL· proj #2
6ERFinal
T3
Michael WachaP
KC@TEX· proj #27
6ERFinal
5
Tanner GordonP
COLvsSF· proj #3
4ERFinal
T5
Ranger SuarezP
BOS@CLE· proj #11
4ERFinal
T5
Andrew PainterP
PHI@LAD· proj #12
4ERFinal
8
Griffin CanningP
SD@WSH· proj #5
3ERFinal
T8
Spencer StriderP
ATL@CIN· proj #8
3ERFinal
T8
Tanner BibeeP
CLEvsBOS· proj #17
3ERFinal
T8
Nick LodoloP
CINvsATL· proj #18
3ERFinal
T8
Jordan WicksP
CHC@STL· proj #20
3ERFinal
T8
Jack KochanowiczP
LAA@TB· proj #25
3ERFinal
14
John KingP
MIA@NYM· proj #1
2ERFinal
T14
Tatsuya ImaiP
HOUvsMIL· proj #4
2ERFinal
T14
Zack LittellP
WSHvsSD· proj #9
2ERFinal
T14
Merrill KellyP
AZ@SEA· proj #29
2ERFinal
T14
Braxton AshcraftP
PITvsMIN· proj #30
2ERFinal
19
Shane McClanahanP
TBvsLAA· proj #7
1ERFinal
T19
Robbie RayP
SF@COL· proj #15
1ERFinal
T19
Sean BurkeP
CWSvsDET· proj #21
1ERFinal
T19
Nolan McLeanP
NYMvsMIA· proj #22
1ERFinal
How the board graded
Share of our top-ranked hitters that hit the mark, next to the season-to-date rate.
Top 5
2/450%
season 52%-2 pts-4% ROI
Top 10
3/933%
season 52%-19 pts-6% ROI
Top 20
9/1947%
season building
Top 50
13/2945%
season building
Full slate
13/2945%
season 49%-4 pts-9% ROI
“Hit” is the green check on the card — the mark. Pools are our pre-game top-ranked matchups; only settled (final) outcomes count. Season-to-date is every graded day this season.
Best MLB Earned Runs Matchups — Sunday, May 31, 2026
John King (MIA) is the top earned runs spot on the Sunday, May 31, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 1.0 ER, with Spencer Miles (TOR) right behind. Every starter is ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. It's the read DFS and pitcher-prop players make before lock.
Top spot: John King
John King (MIA) tops the Sunday, May 31, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 1.0 ER vs NYM. Run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes.
The rest of the top of the board
Spencer Miles (TOR) (69) — about 1.6 ER vs BAL.
Tanner Gordon (COL) (38) — about 2.2 ER vs SF.
Tatsuya Imai (HOU) (37) — about 2.2 ER vs MIL.
Griffin Canning (SD) (26) — about 2.4 ER vs WSH.
Jacob Lopez (ATH) (26) — about 2.4 ER vs NYY.
How it played out
The top 10 starts averaged 3.0 ER. John King finished with 2. Every projection is graded against the box score.
How to read the earned runs board
Each starter's score (0–100) ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. We project a earned runs count for the start and grade it against what actually happened.
Which pitcher has the best earned runs matchup today (Sunday, May 31, 2026)?
John King (MIA) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 1.0 ER against NYM.
What are the best pitcher earned runs props today?
The top projected starts on Sunday, May 31, 2026: John King (~1.0 ER), Spencer Miles (~1.6 ER), Tanner Gordon (~2.2 ER), Tatsuya Imai (~2.2 ER), Griffin Canning (~2.4 ER). The full board ranks every starter.
How is the earned runs score calculated?
Ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected earned runs count alongside, and graded against the box score.
Can I use this for pitcher props or DFS?
Yes — the board surfaces the best earned runs spots and projects a number. Where there's a posted line we show the over/under and which side our projection leans. We show the data and grade it, not picks.
