Best MLB earned runs matchups — Saturday, June 20, 2026
Every starting pitcher on the Saturday, June 20, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by projected earned runs allowed. Run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Results show how each call played out.
PROJSome lineups aren't official yet — 1 starts use an opposing lineup projected from that team's last game. The strikeout projection updates automatically once the official lineup posts, ~2 hours before first pitch.
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#Pitcher · MatchupScore
Pitcher earned runs Rate11.4% Runs / BF
vs LHB14.6%
vs RHB8.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload12.6 BF
Expected batters faced12.6
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.8% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. James Wood (L)13.9%2.0
2. Curtis Mead (R)15.4%2.0
3. Andrés Chaparro (R)12.5%2.0
4. CJ Abrams (L)12.3%1.6
5. Dylan Crews (R)12.2%1.0
6. Daylen Lile (L)10.1%1.0
7. Jacob Young (R)13.0%1.0
8. Nasim Nuñez (R)14.6%1.0
9. Keibert Ruiz (R)11.5%1.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-175+125
BOVBovada-170+130
DKDraftKings-176+132
FANFanatics-180+125
We project 1.6 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate7.5% Runs / BF
vs LHB7.9%
vs RHB8.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.5 BF
Expected batters faced24.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.3 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.8% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Taylor Ward (R)13.1%3.0
2. Gunnar Henderson (L)13.5%3.0
3. Pete Alonso (R)14.3%3.0
4. Samuel Basallo (L)12.2%3.0
5. Leody Taveras (L)12.1%3.0
6. Colton Cowser (L)13.2%3.0
7. Coby Mayo (R)11.2%2.5
8. Jackson Holliday (L)13.4%2.0
9. Blaze Alexander (R)12.0%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-155+110
BOVBovada-170+130
DKDraftKings-149+112
FANFanatics-155+110
We project 2.3 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate9.4% Runs / BF
vs LHB6.4%
vs RHB12.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.6 BF
Expected batters faced23.6
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness10.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Travis Bazzana (L)10.4%3.0
2. Kyle Manzardo (L)11.1%3.0
3. Brayan Rocchio (L)9.8%3.0
4. Rhys Hoskins (R)10.1%3.0
5. Daniel Schneemann (L)10.4%3.0
6. Kahlil Watson (L)11.7%2.6
7. Steven Kwan (L)11.3%2.0
8. Patrick Bailey (L)9.7%2.0
9. Petey Halpin (L)11.4%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+115-160
DKDraftKings+103-137
We project 1.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate9.1% Runs / BF
vs LHB7.7%
vs RHB10.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload11.3 BF
Expected batters faced11.3
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.1 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.3% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Kevin McGonigle (L)11.9%2.0
2. Dillon Dingler (R)10.4%2.0
3. Matt Vierling (R)11.3%1.3
4. Riley Greene (L)10.2%1.0
5. Spencer Torkelson (R)10.9%1.0
6. Kerry Carpenter (L)11.9%1.0
7. Hao-Yu Lee (R)11.1%1.0
8. Jake Rogers (R)11.8%1.0
9. Zach McKinstry (L)11.8%1.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 0.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+145-210
We project 1.1 ER vs the 0.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate7.5% Runs / BF
vs LHB8.0%
vs RHB8.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.8 BF
Expected batters faced23.8
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.1 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Nick Kurtz (L)17.1%3.0
2. Shea Langeliers (R)12.1%3.0
3. Tyler Soderstrom (L)12.7%3.0
4. Jacob Wilson (R)12.1%3.0
5. Jonah Heim (L)9.6%3.0
6. Lawrence Butler (L)12.7%2.8
7. Henry Bolte (R)8.3%2.0
8. Max Muncy (R)11.0%2.0
9. Jeff McNeil (L)10.1%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 3.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+115-165
FANFanatics+115-165
We project 2.1 ER vs the 3.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate11.2% Runs / BF
vs LHB12.3%
vs RHB9.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.7 BF
Expected batters faced22.7
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.4 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness10.6% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Anthony Seigler (L)10.6%3.0
2. Masataka Yoshida (L)9.6%3.0
3. Wilyer Abreu (L)9.9%3.0
4. Willson Contreras (R)11.6%3.0
5. Jarren Duran (L)11.2%2.7
6. Caleb Durbin (R)11.2%2.0
7. Marcelo Mayer (L)9.2%2.0
8. Carlos Narváez (R)9.8%2.0
9. Nate Eaton (R)12.4%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
DKDraftKings+129-172
We project 2.4 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate8.4% Runs / BF
vs LHB9.0%
vs RHB8.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)22.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.8 BF
Expected batters faced23.8
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.3 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.3% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Jake McCarthy (L)12.6%3.0
2. Willi Castro (L)13.4%3.0
3. TJ Rumfield (L)13.0%3.0
4. Hunter Goodman (R)14.5%3.0
5. Troy Johnston (L)11.7%3.0
6. Cole Carrigg (L)11.7%2.8
7. Edouard Julien (L)11.2%2.0
8. Ezequiel Tovar (R)10.6%2.0
9. Sterlin Thompson (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
DKDraftKings+122-162
We project 2.3 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate11.0% Runs / BF
vs LHB11.3%
vs RHB10.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.1 BF
Expected batters faced24.1
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness10.8% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. J.P. Crawford (L)11.6%3.0
2. Cal Raleigh (R)10.3%3.0
3. Julio Rodríguez (R)12.6%3.0
4. Josh Naylor (L)10.8%3.0
5. Rob Refsnyder (R)10.7%3.0
6. Cole Young (L)9.4%3.0
7. Mitch Garver (R)11.9%2.1
8. Connor Joe (R)8.3%2.0
9. Colt Emerson (L)11.8%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+110-155
DKDraftKings+118-157
FANFanatics+110-155
We project 2.5 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate11.7% Runs / BF
vs LHB8.9%
vs RHB13.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.5 BF
Expected batters faced21.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.2% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Shohei Ohtani (L)14.0%3.0
2. Andy Pages (R)10.8%3.0
3. Freddie Freeman (L)11.3%3.0
4. Mookie Betts (R)11.7%2.5
5. Miguel Rojas (R)12.1%2.0
6. Tommy Edman (R)12.3%2.0
7. Kyle Tucker (L)10.9%2.0
8. Alex Call (R)13.7%2.0
9. Dalton Rushing (L)12.5%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 3.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+110-160
BOVBovada+115-155
DKDraftKings+121-160
We project 2.6 ER vs the 3.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.1% Runs / BF
vs LHB9.2%
vs RHB11.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.0 BF
Expected batters faced22.0
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.2 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness10.5% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Joc Pederson (L)11.4%3.0
2. Josh Jung (R)9.5%3.0
3. Wyatt Langford (R)12.1%3.0
4. Brandon Nimmo (L)9.9%3.0
5. Ezequiel Duran (R)12.5%2.0
6. Jarred Kelenic (L)9.2%2.0
7. Jake Burger (R)10.3%2.0
8. Nicky Lopez (L)9.4%2.0
9. Kyle Higashioka (R)10.3%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+100-145
DKDraftKings+120-160
FANFanatics+100-140
We project 2.2 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate9.1% Runs / BF
vs LHB8.5%
vs RHB10.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.8 BF
Expected batters faced23.8
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.4% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Zach Neto (R)14.1%3.0
2. Nolan Schanuel (L)10.7%3.0
3. Vaughn Grissom (R)11.5%3.0
4. Jo Adell (R)13.5%3.0
5. Wade Meckler (L)13.3%3.0
6. Denzer Guzman (R)11.2%2.8
7. Donovan Walton (L)11.7%2.0
8. Jose Siri (R)14.5%2.0
9. Tyler Heineman (L)11.6%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+100-140
DKDraftKings-109-122
We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate8.0% Runs / BF
vs LHB9.6%
vs RHB7.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.5%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload26.3 BF
Expected batters faced26.3
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.4 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.5% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Carson Benge (L)14.7%3.0
2. Bo Bichette (R)15.3%3.0
3. Juan Soto (L)14.2%3.0
4. Marcus Semien (R)11.7%3.0
5. Eric Wagaman (R)11.2%3.0
6. Francisco Alvarez (R)10.3%3.0
7. Mark Vientos (R)11.2%3.0
8. Luis Torrens (R)10.8%3.0
9. Zack Short (R)12.8%2.3
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-175+120
DKDraftKings-149+113
We project 2.4 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate7.9% Runs / BF
vs LHB7.2%
vs RHB8.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.8 BF
Expected batters faced24.8
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.4 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.6% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Jackson Chourio (R)14.8%3.0
2. Brice Turang (L)10.7%3.0
3. William Contreras (R)15.4%3.0
4. Gary Sánchez (R)14.2%3.0
5. Andrew Vaughn (R)14.2%3.0
6. Blake Perkins (R)12.8%3.0
7. Garrett Mitchell (L)9.8%2.8
8. Cooper Pratt (R)11.7%2.0
9. Joey Ortiz (R)9.8%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-135-105
DKDraftKings-138+104
FANFanatics-135-105
We project 2.4 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.7% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.9%
vs RHB10.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.8 BF
Expected batters faced21.8
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.2% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Mauricio Dubón (R)10.3%3.0
2. Drake Baldwin (L)14.2%3.0
3. Matt Olson (L)14.2%3.0
4. Ozzie Albies (R)10.3%2.8
5. Michael Harris II (L)11.6%2.0
6. Austin Riley (R)10.5%2.0
7. Eli White (R)11.6%2.0
8. Joey Bart (R)12.7%2.0
9. Jorge Mateo (R)14.0%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+120-165
DKDraftKings+127-170
We project 2.5 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate8.6% Runs / BF
vs LHB8.9%
vs RHB9.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.4 BF
Expected batters faced24.4
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.9% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Luis Arraez (L)13.9%3.0
2. Bryce Eldridge (L)14.1%3.0
3. Matt Chapman (R)11.6%3.0
4. Rafael Devers (L)12.2%3.0
5. Jung Hoo Lee (L)13.8%3.0
6. Willy Adames (R)12.6%3.0
7. Casey Schmitt (R)11.5%2.4
8. Drew Gilbert (L)12.6%2.0
9. Eric Haase (R)13.5%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+110-155
DKDraftKings+123-164
FANFanatics+110-155
We project 2.5 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.5% Runs / BF
vs LHB11.7%
vs RHB9.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.9 BF
Expected batters faced22.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.4 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.5% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Blake Dunn (R)11.3%3.0
2. JJ Bleday (L)14.2%3.0
3. Sal Stewart (R)12.2%3.0
4. Nathaniel Lowe (L)10.0%3.0
5. Spencer Steer (R)12.6%2.9
6. Noelvi Marte (R)10.0%2.0
7. Matt McLain (R)11.2%2.0
8. Jose Trevino (R)10.5%2.0
9. Edwin Arroyo (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
DKDraftKings+124-166
We project 2.4 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.7% Runs / BF
vs LHB11.4%
vs RHB9.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.8 BF
Expected batters faced23.8
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.8 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.0% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Trea Turner (R)12.2%3.0
2. Kyle Schwarber (L)12.8%3.0
3. Bryce Harper (L)16.9%3.0
4. Brandon Marsh (L)14.6%3.0
5. Alec Bohm (R)10.6%3.0
6. Bryson Stott (L)9.7%2.8
7. J.T. Realmuto (R)11.4%2.0
8. Gabriel Rincones Jr. (L)11.7%2.0
9. Justin Crawford (L)8.3%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-130-110
DKDraftKings-128-104
FANFanatics-130-110
We project 2.8 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate9.9% Runs / BF
vs LHB11.6%
vs RHB9.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)7.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.1 BF
Expected batters faced23.1
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.3% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Ben Rice (L)11.3%3.0
2. Amed Rosario (R)10.9%3.0
3. Paul Goldschmidt (R)13.3%3.0
4. Cody Bellinger (L)12.8%3.0
5. Jasson Domínguez (R)11.7%3.0
6. José Caballero (R)14.2%2.1
7. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)12.6%2.0
8. Anthony Volpe (R)14.4%2.0
9. Ali Sánchez (R)9.4%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 3.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+115-160
DKDraftKings+108-144
FANFanatics+115-165
We project 2.5 ER vs the 3.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate11.3% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.9%
vs RHB11.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.5 BF
Expected batters faced23.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.8 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.1% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Yandy Díaz (R)10.1%3.0
2. Jonathan Aranda (L)11.8%3.0
3. Cedric Mullins (L)11.8%3.0
4. Junior Caminero (R)12.6%3.0
5. Richie Palacios (L)11.7%3.0
6. Chandler Simpson (L)12.2%2.5
7. Victor Mesa Jr. (L)13.8%2.0
8. Hunter Feduccia (L)11.9%2.0
9. Taylor Walls (L)12.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+115-160
BOVBovada+115-155
We project 2.8 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate11.2% Runs / BF
vs LHB13.7%
vs RHB8.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.1 BF
Expected batters faced23.1
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.8 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.9% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Jakob Marsee (L)11.2%3.0
2. Otto Lopez (R)14.6%3.0
3. Kyle Stowers (L)11.7%3.0
4. Xavier Edwards (L)10.7%3.0
5. Heriberto Hernández (R)12.2%3.0
6. Owen Caissie (L)10.7%2.1
7. Leo Jiménez (R)10.5%2.0
8. Joe Mack (L)11.7%2.0
9. Esteury Ruiz (R)13.5%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-105-135
DKDraftKings-106-125
We project 2.8 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate12.0% Runs / BF
vs LHB8.3%
vs RHB13.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.5 BF
Expected batters faced21.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.8 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Jeremy Peña (R)10.9%3.0
2. Yordan Alvarez (L)12.0%3.0
3. Christian Walker (R)12.3%3.0
4. Isaac Paredes (R)11.0%2.5
5. Jose Altuve (R)14.5%2.0
6. Yainer Diaz (R)11.6%2.0
7. Cam Smith (R)10.7%2.0
8. Jake Meyers (R)11.8%2.0
9. Brice Matthews (R)10.3%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+105-150
DKDraftKings-106-125
FANFanatics+105-150
We project 2.8 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate12.2% Runs / BF
vs LHB13.8%
vs RHB9.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.8 BF
Expected batters faced23.8
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.1 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.5% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Ketel Marte (L)10.8%3.0
2. Geraldo Perdomo (L)11.7%3.0
3. Corbin Carroll (L)15.4%3.0
4. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (R)9.9%3.0
5. Pavin Smith (L)11.7%3.0
6. Nolan Arenado (R)9.8%2.8
7. Adrian Del Castillo (L)11.7%2.0
8. Jorge Barrosa (L)11.7%2.0
9. Tommy Troy (R)11.2%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-120-118
DKDraftKings-125-106
FANFanatics-120-120
We project 3.1 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate12.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB12.3%
vs RHB12.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.8 BF
Expected batters faced22.8
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.0 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.9% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Spencer Horwitz (L)12.2%3.0
2. Brandon Lowe (L)14.3%3.0
3. Bryan Reynolds (L)14.2%3.0
4. Ryan O'Hearn (L)11.2%3.0
5. Nick Gonzales (R)11.7%2.8
6. Tyler Callihan (L)12.8%2.0
7. Jake Mangum (L)10.4%2.0
8. Jared Triolo (R)10.2%2.0
9. Henry Davis (R)10.6%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 3.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-130-110
DKDraftKings-112-119
FANFanatics-130-110
We project 3.0 ER vs the 3.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate12.6% Runs / BF
vs LHB9.6%
vs RHB13.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.5 BF
Expected batters faced21.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.9 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.2% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)10.9%3.0
2. Nico Hoerner (R)12.1%3.0
3. Seiya Suzuki (R)12.8%3.0
4. Michael Busch (L)9.6%2.5
5. Alex Bregman (R)11.7%2.0
6. Ian Happ (R)12.6%2.0
7. Matt Shaw (R)12.6%2.0
8. Miguel Amaya (R)12.0%2.0
9. Dansby Swanson (R)15.5%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-135-105
BOVBovada-135-105
DKDraftKings-130-102
We project 2.9 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate11.2% Runs / BF
vs LHB11.4%
vs RHB10.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload25.9 BF
Expected batters faced25.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.8 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.5% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)10.7%3.0
2. Samad Taylor (R)14.6%3.0
3. Manny Machado (R)11.0%3.0
4. Xander Bogaerts (R)10.8%3.0
5. Jackson Merrill (L)11.6%3.0
6. Ty France (R)9.7%3.0
7. Nick Solak (R)11.1%3.0
8. Jase Bowen (R)11.7%2.9
9. Blake Hunt (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.1% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.5%
vs RHB9.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.4 BF
Expected batters faced24.4
From recent starts4
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.9 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness13.0% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Sam Antonacci (L)15.7%3.0
2. Miguel Vargas (R)14.2%3.0
3. Andrew Benintendi (L)12.9%3.0
4. Colson Montgomery (L)13.0%3.0
5. Randal Grichuk (R)13.7%3.0
6. Jacob Gonzalez (L)11.7%3.0
7. Braden Montgomery (L)11.7%2.4
8. Tristan Peters (L)13.3%2.0
9. Drew Romo (L)10.4%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-105-135
BOVBovada+125-165
DKDraftKings+100-133
FANFanatics-105-135
We project 2.9 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate12.6% Runs / BF
vs LHB12.3%
vs RHB12.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.1 BF
Expected batters faced24.1
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness13.0% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Trevor Larnach (L)14.8%3.0
2. Byron Buxton (R)16.9%3.0
3. Kody Clemens (L)15.1%3.0
4. Josh Bell (L)12.9%3.0
5. Royce Lewis (R)9.7%3.0
6. Brooks Lee (L)11.8%3.0
7. Victor Caratini (L)9.5%2.1
8. Luke Keaschall (R)12.6%2.0
9. Ryan Kreidler (R)13.6%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-130-110
DKDraftKings-138+104
We project 3.5 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate14.0% Runs / BF
vs LHB13.1%
vs RHB13.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.2 BF
Expected batters faced23.2
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.9% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. George Springer (R)12.5%3.0
2. Nathan Lukes (L)12.1%3.0
3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)12.2%3.0
4. Brandon Valenzuela (L)12.5%3.0
5. Kazuma Okamoto (R)12.5%3.0
6. Daulton Varsho (L)12.8%2.2
7. Davis Schneider (R)13.1%2.0
8. Andrés Giménez (L)9.3%2.0
9. Myles Straw (R)19.4%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-105-140
BOVBovada-105-135
DKDraftKings+101-134
FANFanatics-105-135
We project 3.5 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
22 with a ERLive count — updates as games play
1
Freddy PeraltaP
NYM@PHI· proj #17
10ERFinal
2
Zac GallenP
AZvsMIN· proj #27
9ERFinal
3
Spencer ArrighettiP
HOUvsCLE· proj #3
6ERFinal
4
Emerson HancockP
SEAvsBOS· proj #6
5ERFinal
5
J.T. GinnP
ATHvsLAA· proj #11
4ERFinal
6
Ian SeymourP
TBvsWSH· proj #1
3ERFinal
T6
Yoshinobu YamamotoP
LADvsBAL· proj #2
3ERFinal
T6
Trevor McDonaldP
SF@MIA· proj #20
3ERFinal
T6
Patrick CorbinP
TOR@CHC· proj #24
3ERFinal
10
Paul SkenesP
PIT@COL· proj #7
2ERFinal
T10
Kyle HarrisonP
MIL@ATL· proj #14
2ERFinal
T10
Max MeyerP
MIAvsSF· proj #15
2ERFinal
T10
Will WarrenP
NYYvsCIN· proj #16
2ERFinal
T10
Cade CavalliP
WSH@TB· proj #19
2ERFinal
T10
Taj BradleyP
MIN@AZ· proj #22
2ERFinal
16
Connelly EarlyP
BOS@SEA· proj #8
1ERFinal
T16
Walker BuehlerP
SD@TEX· proj #10
1ERFinal
T16
Cristopher SánchezP
PHIvsNYM· proj #12
1ERFinal
T16
Andrew AbbottP
CIN@NYY· proj #18
1ERFinal
T16
Joey CantilloP
CLE@HOU· proj #21
1ERFinal
T16
Tomoyuki SuganoP
COLvsPIT· proj #23
1ERFinal
T16
Troy MeltonP
DETvsCWS· proj #26
1ERFinal
How the board graded
Share of our top-ranked hitters that hit the mark, next to the season-to-date rate.
Top 5
3/560%
season 52%+8 pts-4% ROI
Top 10
6/1060%
season 52%+8 pts-6% ROI
Top 20
12/2060%
season building
Top 50
15/2756%
season building
Full slate
15/2756%
season 49%+7 pts-9% ROI
“Hit” is the green check on the card — the mark. Pools are our pre-game top-ranked matchups; only settled (final) outcomes count. Season-to-date is every graded day this season.
Best MLB Earned Runs Matchups — Saturday, June 20, 2026
Ian Seymour (TB) is the top earned runs spot on the Saturday, June 20, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 1.6 ER, with Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD) right behind. Every starter is ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. It's the read DFS and pitcher-prop players make before lock.
Top spot: Ian Seymour
Ian Seymour (TB) tops the Saturday, June 20, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 1.6 ER vs WSH. Run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes.
The rest of the top of the board
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD) (100) — about 2.3 ER vs BAL.
Spencer Arrighetti (HOU) (100) — about 1.6 ER vs CLE.
Sean Newcomb (CWS) (100) — about 1.1 ER vs DET.
Walbert Ureña (LAA) (100) — about 2.1 ER vs ATH.
Emerson Hancock (SEA) (91) — about 2.4 ER vs BOS.
How it played out
The top 10 starts averaged 2.1 ER. Ian Seymour finished with 3. Every projection is graded against the box score.
How to read the earned runs board
Each starter's score (0–100) ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. We project a earned runs count for the start and grade it against what actually happened.
Which pitcher has the best earned runs matchup today (Saturday, June 20, 2026)?
Ian Seymour (TB) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 1.6 ER against WSH.
What are the best pitcher earned runs props today?
The top projected starts on Saturday, June 20, 2026: Ian Seymour (~1.6 ER), Yoshinobu Yamamoto (~2.3 ER), Spencer Arrighetti (~1.6 ER), Sean Newcomb (~1.1 ER), Walbert Ureña (~2.1 ER). The full board ranks every starter.
How is the earned runs score calculated?
Ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected earned runs count alongside, and graded against the box score.
Can I use this for pitcher props or DFS?
Yes — the board surfaces the best earned runs spots and projects a number. Where there's a posted line we show the over/under and which side our projection leans. We show the data and grade it, not picks.
