Best MLB earned runs matchups — Wednesday, June 24, 2026
Every starting pitcher on the Wednesday, June 24, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by projected earned runs allowed. Run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Results show how each call played out.
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.4 BF
Expected batters faced23.4
From recent starts5
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.1 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.6% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Matt Chapman (R)13.4%3.0
2. Bryce Eldridge (L)12.1%3.0
3. Casey Schmitt (R)10.5%3.0
4. Rafael Devers (L)10.1%3.0
5. Willy Adames (R)11.5%3.0
6. Jung Hoo Lee (L)11.8%2.4
7. Victor Bericoto (R)11.7%2.0
8. Eric Haase (R)11.7%2.0
9. Jonah Cox (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+115-155
DKDraftKings+115-152
FANFanatics+110-155
We project 2.1 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate8.4% Runs / BF
vs LHB8.9%
vs RHB8.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.5%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload18.6 BF
Expected batters faced18.6
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.1% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)11.6%2.6
2. Samad Taylor (R)13.9%2.0
3. Manny Machado (R)12.1%2.0
4. Xander Bogaerts (R)10.2%2.0
5. Jackson Merrill (L)9.9%2.0
6. Miguel Andujar (R)9.1%2.0
7. Ty France (R)9.9%2.0
8. Freddy Fermin (R)11.7%2.0
9. Jase Bowen (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+115-155
DKDraftKings+113-151
FANFanatics+110-155
We project 1.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.0% Runs / BF
vs LHB12.0%
vs RHB8.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload16.0 BF
Expected batters faced16.0
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.2% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Carson Benge (L)13.7%2.0
2. A.J. Ewing (L)11.9%2.0
3. Bo Bichette (R)11.8%2.0
4. Jared Young (L)11.3%2.0
5. Francisco Alvarez (R)10.4%2.0
6. Brett Baty (L)9.8%2.0
7. Marcus Semien (R)9.9%2.0
8. MJ Melendez (L)11.0%1.0
9. Luis Torrens (R)10.6%1.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+100-135
DKDraftKings+110-146
We project 1.7 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate8.4% Runs / BF
vs LHB9.2%
vs RHB8.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.5 BF
Expected batters faced22.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.0 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.3% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Willi Castro (R)10.6%3.0
2. Tyler Freeman (R)13.2%3.0
3. TJ Rumfield (L)9.6%3.0
4. Hunter Goodman (R)13.9%3.0
5. Cole Carrigg (R)11.7%2.5
6. Jake McCarthy (L)8.7%2.0
7. Braxton Fulford (R)11.8%2.0
8. Ezequiel Tovar (R)9.4%2.0
9. Kyle Karros (R)12.8%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-110-120
DKDraftKings-122-109
FANFanatics-115-125
We project 2.0 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.3% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.1%
vs RHB11.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload20.2 BF
Expected batters faced20.2
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.1 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.2% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Travis Bazzana (L)14.2%3.0
2. Brayan Rocchio (L)9.7%3.0
3. David Fry (R)12.0%2.2
4. Kyle Manzardo (L)11.0%2.0
5. Rhys Hoskins (R)10.1%2.0
6. Kahlil Watson (L)10.9%2.0
7. Daniel Schneemann (L)10.7%2.0
8. Patrick Bailey (L)10.8%2.0
9. Steven Kwan (L)11.5%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-155+115
We project 2.1 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate9.4% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.5%
vs RHB8.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload19.0 BF
Expected batters faced19.0
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.2 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness13.1% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Carter Jensen (L)14.0%3.0
2. Nick Loftin (R)14.0%2.0
3. Jac Caglianone (L)15.5%2.0
4. Salvador Perez (R)9.3%2.0
5. Michael Massey (L)11.4%2.0
6. Isaac Collins (L)11.7%2.0
7. John Rave (L)12.6%2.0
8. Kameron Misner (L)10.4%2.0
9. Tyler Tolbert (R)18.9%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-120-110
DKDraftKings-125-106
We project 2.2 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload17.8 BF
Expected batters faced17.8
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.2 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.6% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Blake Dunn (R)14.1%2.0
2. Elly De La Cruz (R)12.0%2.0
3. Dane Myers (R)11.9%2.0
4. Sal Stewart (R)11.7%2.0
5. Spencer Steer (R)13.9%2.0
6. Eugenio Suárez (R)11.0%2.0
7. Noelvi Marte (R)13.1%2.0
8. Tyler Stephenson (R)11.7%2.0
9. Matt McLain (R)13.5%1.8
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+120-160
DKDraftKings+101-133
We project 2.2 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate9.0% Runs / BF
vs LHB9.5%
vs RHB9.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.6 BF
Expected batters faced23.6
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.4% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)16.0%3.0
2. Michael Conforto (L)10.3%3.0
3. Michael Busch (L)10.6%3.0
4. Seiya Suzuki (R)12.5%3.0
5. Ian Happ (L)15.6%3.0
6. Nico Hoerner (R)9.1%2.6
7. Pedro Ramírez (L)11.7%2.0
8. Miguel Amaya (R)11.9%2.0
9. Dansby Swanson (R)14.3%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+105-145
DKDraftKings+123-164
We project 2.5 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate9.2% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.5%
vs RHB8.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.5 BF
Expected batters faced23.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.4 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.2% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Paul Goldschmidt (R)13.6%3.0
2. Ben Rice (L)10.6%3.0
3. Jasson Domínguez (R)10.3%3.0
4. Cody Bellinger (L)12.7%3.0
5. Anthony Volpe (R)12.7%3.0
6. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)11.4%2.5
7. José Caballero (R)15.1%2.0
8. Austin Wells (L)9.3%2.0
9. Max Schuemann (R)14.0%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
DKDraftKings-106-125
FANFanatics-120-120
We project 2.4 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate11.0% Runs / BF
vs LHB11.1%
vs RHB10.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.8 BF
Expected batters faced22.8
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.8% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Xavier Edwards (L)10.7%3.0
2. Otto Lopez (R)15.0%3.0
3. Kyle Stowers (L)12.0%3.0
4. Heriberto Hernández (R)12.7%3.0
5. Griffin Conine (L)12.5%2.8
6. Jakob Marsee (L)10.2%2.0
7. Owen Caissie (L)11.8%2.0
8. Leo Jiménez (R)9.6%2.0
9. Brian Navarreto (R)11.8%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-160+120
DKDraftKings-155+116
FANFanatics-165+115
We project 2.6 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate8.7% Runs / BF
vs LHB9.0%
vs RHB9.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.8 BF
Expected batters faced24.8
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.3% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. J.P. Crawford (L)11.1%3.0
2. Cal Raleigh (L)11.9%3.0
3. Julio Rodríguez (R)12.0%3.0
4. Josh Naylor (L)10.6%3.0
5. Randy Arozarena (R)14.2%3.0
6. Dominic Canzone (L)13.9%3.0
7. Luke Raley (L)12.2%2.8
8. Cole Young (L)12.3%2.0
9. Colt Emerson (L)12.2%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+125-165
DKDraftKings+123-164
We project 2.5 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.9% Runs / BF
vs LHB9.2%
vs RHB12.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload18.0 BF
Expected batters faced18.0
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.3 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.4% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)10.7%2.0
2. Matt Shaw (R)13.2%2.0
3. Seiya Suzuki (R)13.3%2.0
4. Alex Bregman (R)12.5%2.0
5. Michael Busch (L)9.4%2.0
6. Nico Hoerner (R)11.7%2.0
7. Carson Kelly (R)15.0%2.0
8. Pedro Ramírez (R)11.7%2.0
9. Dansby Swanson (R)14.5%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-105-130
DKDraftKings+128-170
FANFanatics-105-135
We project 2.3 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB9.6%
vs RHB12.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.7 BF
Expected batters faced23.7
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.5% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Sam Antonacci (L)16.0%3.0
2. Miguel Vargas (R)13.5%3.0
3. Andrew Benintendi (L)12.2%3.0
4. Kyle Teel (L)11.4%3.0
5. Colson Montgomery (L)11.8%3.0
6. Chase Meidroth (R)10.9%2.7
7. Braden Montgomery (L)11.7%2.0
8. Tristan Peters (L)13.5%2.0
9. Jacob Gonzalez (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-105-130
DKDraftKings+108-144
FANFanatics-110-130
We project 2.7 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate11.2% Runs / BF
vs LHB12.1%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.5 BF
Expected batters faced22.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.2% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Yandy Díaz (R)12.3%3.0
2. Jonny DeLuca (R)11.9%3.0
3. Junior Caminero (R)12.3%3.0
4. Ryan Vilade (R)10.7%3.0
5. Jonathan Aranda (L)9.8%2.5
6. Ben Williamson (R)11.7%2.0
7. Taylor Walls (R)10.4%2.0
8. Chandler Simpson (L)9.6%2.0
9. Nick Fortes (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-105-135
DKDraftKings+100-133
FANFanatics-105-135
We project 2.5 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate11.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB9.8%
vs RHB14.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.1 BF
Expected batters faced22.1
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.8 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.5% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Joc Pederson (L)11.5%3.0
2. Wyatt Langford (R)12.7%3.0
3. Josh Jung (R)10.4%3.0
4. Brandon Nimmo (L)11.2%3.0
5. Jake Burger (R)11.5%2.1
6. Ezequiel Duran (R)12.5%2.0
7. Alejandro Osuna (L)10.7%2.0
8. Elias Díaz (R)13.0%2.0
9. Nicky Lopez (L)10.1%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+105-145
BOVBovada+105-145
DKDraftKings+110-146
We project 2.8 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.0 BF
Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts0
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.5% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Trea Turner (R)15.0%3.0
2. Brandon Marsh (L)11.2%3.0
3. Bryce Harper (L)9.6%3.0
4. Alec Bohm (R)8.3%3.0
5. Bryson Stott (L)11.5%3.0
6. J.T. Realmuto (R)8.5%2.0
7. Gabriel Rincones Jr. (L)11.7%2.0
8. Edmundo Sosa (R)11.7%2.0
9. Justin Crawford (L)16.3%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate9.7% Runs / BF
vs LHB12.2%
vs RHB9.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.5 BF
Expected batters faced23.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.4 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.5% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Carson Benge (L)13.6%3.0
2. Francisco Lindor (R)12.0%3.0
3. Bo Bichette (R)14.4%3.0
4. Mark Vientos (R)12.1%3.0
5. Marcus Semien (R)11.2%3.0
6. Francisco Alvarez (R)9.8%2.5
7. Eric Wagaman (R)10.4%2.0
8. A.J. Ewing (L)7.6%2.0
9. Brett Baty (L)12.5%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+100-135
DKDraftKings+104-137
We project 2.4 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate9.3% Runs / BF
vs LHB9.4%
vs RHB9.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.3 BF
Expected batters faced24.3
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.5% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Taylor Ward (R)12.8%3.0
2. Gunnar Henderson (L)13.7%3.0
3. Leody Taveras (L)12.8%3.0
4. Pete Alonso (R)14.1%3.0
5. Samuel Basallo (L)10.8%3.0
6. Colton Cowser (L)13.7%3.0
7. Coby Mayo (R)9.8%2.3
8. Jeremiah Jackson (R)12.0%2.0
9. Blaze Alexander (R)12.3%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-110-120
DKDraftKings+101-134
FANFanatics-115-125
We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate11.9% Runs / BF
vs LHB11.0%
vs RHB12.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.5 BF
Expected batters faced23.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.2% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Kevin McGonigle (L)10.7%3.0
2. Dillon Dingler (R)11.8%3.0
3. Matt Vierling (R)11.3%3.0
4. Riley Greene (L)9.6%3.0
5. Spencer Torkelson (R)11.2%3.0
6. Hao-Yu Lee (R)10.0%2.5
7. Ben Malgeri (R)11.7%2.0
8. Zach McKinstry (L)13.1%2.0
9. Jake Rogers (R)11.1%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+115-155
DKDraftKings+118-158
We project 2.7 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.0 BF
Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts0
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.6% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. JJ Wetherholt (L)10.3%3.0
2. Iván Herrera (R)14.1%3.0
3. Jordan Walker (R)13.5%3.0
4. Nelson Velázquez (R)11.1%3.0
5. José Fermín (R)11.1%3.0
6. Masyn Winn (R)12.4%2.0
7. Lars Nootbaar (L)11.3%2.0
8. Blaze Jordan (R)11.7%2.0
9. Pedro Pagés (R)9.1%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate13.6% Runs / BF
vs LHB11.0%
vs RHB14.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)7.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.2 BF
Expected batters faced21.2
From recent starts6
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.1% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Nolan Schanuel (L)10.6%3.0
2. Denzer Guzman (R)11.9%3.0
3. Wade Meckler (L)12.4%3.0
4. Jorge Soler (R)11.8%2.2
5. Christian Moore (R)10.2%2.0
6. Donovan Walton (L)12.7%2.0
7. Oswald Peraza (R)8.3%2.0
8. Josh Lowe (L)9.5%2.0
9. Tyler Heineman (L)12.3%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-105-130
DKDraftKings+100-132
We project 2.7 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate11.2% Runs / BF
vs LHB11.0%
vs RHB11.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.4 BF
Expected batters faced23.4
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.8 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.2% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Spencer Horwitz (L)13.2%3.0
2. Brandon Lowe (L)14.1%3.0
3. Bryan Reynolds (L)14.2%3.0
4. Nick Gonzales (R)12.1%3.0
5. Ryan O'Hearn (L)10.5%3.0
6. Endy Rodríguez (L)12.8%2.4
7. Tyler Callihan (L)12.8%2.0
8. Jake Mangum (L)10.6%2.0
9. Jared Triolo (R)9.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+100-135
DKDraftKings+105-139
FANFanatics-105-135
We project 2.8 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate11.9% Runs / BF
vs LHB8.9%
vs RHB12.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.0 BF
Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts0
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.6% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Mauricio Dubón (R)11.3%3.0
2. Michael Harris II (L)12.4%3.0
3. Ozzie Albies (R)11.1%3.0
4. Matt Olson (L)13.8%3.0
5. Austin Riley (R)9.9%3.0
6. Eli White (R)11.0%2.0
7. Joey Bart (R)11.7%2.0
8. Jorge Mateo (R)13.2%2.0
9. Ha-Seong Kim (R)9.6%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-135-105
DKDraftKings-133+100
We project 2.7 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate8.9% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.1%
vs RHB8.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.0 BF
Expected batters faced24.0
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.8 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness13.5% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Shohei Ohtani (L)16.8%3.0
2. Andy Pages (R)13.4%3.0
3. Freddie Freeman (L)14.2%3.0
4. Mookie Betts (R)14.1%3.0
5. Max Muncy (L)14.5%3.0
6. Alex Call (R)13.6%3.0
7. Ryan Ward (L)12.4%2.0
8. Dalton Rushing (L)12.0%2.0
9. Alex Freeland (L)10.8%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+100-140
DKDraftKings-107-124
FANFanatics+100-140
We project 2.8 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate11.3% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.9%
vs RHB11.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.0 BF
Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.8 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.9% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Jose Altuve (R)13.0%3.0
2. Yordan Alvarez (L)16.4%3.0
3. Jeremy Peña (R)14.7%3.0
4. Isaac Paredes (R)9.9%3.0
5. Joey Loperfido (L)12.6%3.0
6. Yainer Diaz (R)9.8%2.0
7. Cam Smith (R)10.8%2.0
8. Brice Matthews (R)10.3%2.0
9. Raynel Delgado (L)9.3%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+115-160
DKDraftKings+102-136
FANFanatics+115-165
We project 2.8 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate12.9% Runs / BF
vs LHB15.2%
vs RHB9.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.5%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.1 BF
Expected batters faced23.1
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.9 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.0% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. George Springer (R)13.9%3.0
2. Nathan Lukes (L)11.3%3.0
3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)13.2%3.0
4. Kazuma Okamoto (R)13.5%3.0
5. Daulton Varsho (L)14.0%3.0
6. Alejandro Kirk (R)8.3%2.1
7. Davis Schneider (R)12.1%2.0
8. Andrés Giménez (L)9.9%2.0
9. Luis Urías (R)12.3%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-130-105
DKDraftKings-138+104
We project 2.9 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB11.4%
vs RHB10.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.1 BF
Expected batters faced21.1
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.9 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness13.8% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Christian Yelich (L)16.4%3.0
2. Jackson Chourio (R)13.2%3.0
3. Brice Turang (L)15.3%3.0
4. William Contreras (R)12.7%2.1
5. Jake Bauers (L)15.3%2.0
6. Garrett Mitchell (L)15.2%2.0
7. Sal Frelick (L)11.3%2.0
8. Cooper Pratt (R)11.7%2.0
9. David Hamilton (L)12.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-155+115
DKDraftKings-146+110
FANFanatics-140+100
We project 2.9 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate14.3% Runs / BF
vs LHB15.9%
vs RHB12.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.0 BF
Expected batters faced21.0
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.1 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.9% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Ketel Marte (R)14.3%3.0
2. Geraldo Perdomo (R)11.7%3.0
3. Corbin Carroll (L)12.1%3.0
4. Gabriel Moreno (R)12.9%2.0
5. Nolan Arenado (R)12.6%2.0
6. Tommy Troy (R)16.3%2.0
7. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (R)10.8%2.0
8. Ildemaro Vargas (R)13.3%2.0
9. LuJames Groover (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-120-115
DKDraftKings-119-111
We project 3.1 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate13.2% Runs / BF
vs LHB12.3%
vs RHB13.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)7.5%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.1 BF
Expected batters faced23.1
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.1 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.6% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Henry Bolte (R)8.1%3.0
2. Nick Kurtz (L)16.1%3.0
3. Shea Langeliers (R)12.4%3.0
4. Tyler Soderstrom (L)13.9%3.0
5. Jacob Wilson (R)11.3%3.0
6. Joey Meneses (R)7.2%2.1
7. Lawrence Butler (L)13.7%2.0
8. Max Muncy (R)11.5%2.0
9. Jeff McNeil (L)10.5%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
DKDraftKings-159+119
We project 3.1 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.2 BF
Expected batters faced24.2
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.1 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness13.2% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Trevor Larnach (L)14.6%3.0
2. Byron Buxton (R)16.6%3.0
3. Kody Clemens (L)12.9%3.0
4. Josh Bell (L)13.9%3.0
5. Royce Lewis (R)10.2%3.0
6. Brooks Lee (L)13.9%3.0
7. Victor Caratini (L)11.5%2.2
8. Tristan Gray (L)9.1%2.0
9. Ryan Kreidler (R)16.3%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-155+110
DKDraftKings-148+111
We project 3.1 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate12.6% Runs / BF
vs LHB13.2%
vs RHB11.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.9 BF
Expected batters faced21.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.4 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness13.1% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. James Wood (L)17.9%3.0
2. Luis García Jr. (L)14.5%3.0
3. José Tena (L)11.3%3.0
4. CJ Abrams (L)15.5%2.9
5. Daylen Lile (L)11.7%2.0
6. Dylan Crews (R)11.7%2.0
7. Jorbit Vivas (L)11.5%2.0
8. Drew Millas (L)11.7%2.0
9. Nasim Nuñez (L)11.9%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-130-105
DKDraftKings-127-105
FANFanatics-130-110
We project 3.4 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate14.7% Runs / BF
vs LHB12.9%
vs RHB14.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.9 BF
Expected batters faced23.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.9 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.9% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Nate Eaton (R)12.6%3.0
2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)13.7%3.0
3. Wilyer Abreu (L)14.1%3.0
4. Willson Contreras (R)13.7%3.0
5. Caleb Durbin (R)10.4%3.0
6. Anthony Seigler (R)11.1%2.9
7. Andruw Monasterio (R)13.3%2.0
8. Connor Wong (R)11.9%2.0
9. Carlos Narváez (R)15.2%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-110-125
DKDraftKings+104-137
We project 3.9 ER vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
27 with a ERLive count — updates as games play
1
Nolan McLeanP
NYMvsCHC· proj #8
6ERFinal
T1
Matthew LiberatoreP
STLvsAZ· proj #28
6ERFinal
T1
Kyle FreelandP
COLvsBOS· proj #32
6ERFinal
4
Noah CameronP
KC@TB· proj #14
5ERFinal
T4
José SorianoP
LAAvsBAL· proj #18
5ERFinal
T4
Bryan WooP
SEA@PIT· proj #22
5ERFinal
7
Tarik SkubalP
DETvsNYY· proj #9
4ERFinal
T7
Shota ImanagaP
CHC@NYM· proj #17
4ERFinal
T7
Joe RyanP
MINvsLAD· proj #24
4ERFinal
10
Martín PérezP
ATL@SD· proj #2
3ERFinal
T10
Javier AssadP
CHC@NYM· proj #3
3ERFinal
T10
Sean ManaeaP
NYMvsCHC· proj #12
3ERFinal
T10
Rhett LowderP
CINvsMIL· proj #27
3ERFinal
14
Jacob deGromP
TEX@MIA· proj #10
2ERFinal
T14
Trey GibsonP
BAL@LAA· proj #21
2ERFinal
T14
JP SearsP
SDvsATL· proj #23
2ERFinal
T14
Shohei OhtaniTWP
LAD@MIN· 2-for-5· proj #30
2ERFinal
T14
Aaron NolaP
PHI@WSH· proj #31
2ERFinal
19
Ranger SuarezP
BOS@COL· proj #4
1ERFinal
T19
Erick FeddeP
CWSvsCLE· proj #5
1ERFinal
T19
Braxton AshcraftP
PITvsSEA· proj #11
1ERFinal
T19
Eury PérezP
MIAvsTEX· proj #15
1ERFinal
T19
Carson PalmquistP
WSHvsPHI· proj #16
1ERFinal
T19
Ryan WeathersP
NYY@DET· proj #19
1ERFinal
T19
Mitch BrattP
AZ@STL· proj #20
1ERFinal
T19
Trey YesavageP
TORvsHOU· proj #25
1ERFinal
T19
Mike BurrowsP
HOU@TOR· proj #26
1ERFinal
How the board graded
Share of our top-ranked hitters that hit the mark, next to the season-to-date rate.
Top 5
2/540%
season 52%-12 pts-4% ROI
Top 10
6/1060%
season 52%+8 pts-6% ROI
Top 20
8/1844%
season building
Top 50
14/3047%
season building
Full slate
14/3047%
season 49%-2 pts-9% ROI
“Hit” is the green check on the card — the mark. Pools are our pre-game top-ranked matchups; only settled (final) outcomes count. Season-to-date is every graded day this season.
Best MLB Earned Runs Matchups — Wednesday, June 24, 2026
Gage Jump (ATH) is the top earned runs spot on the Wednesday, June 24, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 2.1 ER, with Martín Pérez (ATL) right behind. Every starter is ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. It's the read DFS and pitcher-prop players make before lock.
Top spot: Gage Jump
Gage Jump (ATH) tops the Wednesday, June 24, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 2.1 ER vs SF. Run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes.
The rest of the top of the board
Martín Pérez (ATL) (100) — about 1.6 ER vs SD.
Javier Assad (CHC) (96) — about 1.7 ER vs NYM.
Ranger Suarez (BOS) (81) — about 2.0 ER vs COL.
Erick Fedde (CWS) (78) — about 2.1 ER vs CLE.
Griffin Jax (TB) (67) — about 2.2 ER vs KC.
How it played out
The top 10 starts averaged 2.0 ER. Gage Jump finished with 0. Every projection is graded against the box score.
How to read the earned runs board
Each starter's score (0–100) ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. We project a earned runs count for the start and grade it against what actually happened.
Which pitcher has the best earned runs matchup today (Wednesday, June 24, 2026)?
Gage Jump (ATH) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 2.1 ER against SF.
What are the best pitcher earned runs props today?
The top projected starts on Wednesday, June 24, 2026: Gage Jump (~2.1 ER), Martín Pérez (~1.6 ER), Javier Assad (~1.7 ER), Ranger Suarez (~2.0 ER), Erick Fedde (~2.1 ER). The full board ranks every starter.
How is the earned runs score calculated?
Ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected earned runs count alongside, and graded against the box score.
Can I use this for pitcher props or DFS?
Yes — the board surfaces the best earned runs spots and projects a number. Where there's a posted line we show the over/under and which side our projection leans. We show the data and grade it, not picks.
