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Best MLB earned runs matchups — Tuesday, July 21, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Tuesday, July 21, 2026 slate — ranked by projected earned runs allowed. Tap any card for the full breakdown.

6:40 PM ETMINMINawayCLECLEhomeTop matchup1006:40 PM ETLADLADawayPHIPHIhomeTop matchup857:05 PM ETPITPITawayNYYNYYhomeTop matchup307:07 PM ETTBTBawayTORTORhomeTop matchup607:10 PM ETBALBALawayBOSBOShomeTop matchup647:15 PM ETSDSDawayATLATLhomeTop matchup967:40 PM ETSFSFawayKCKChomeTop matchup767:40 PM ETNYMNYMawayMILMILhomeTop matchup658:05 PM ETDETDETawayCHCCHChomeTop matchup698:05 PM ETCWSCWSawayTEXTEXhomeTop matchup568:10 PM ETMIAMIAawayHOUHOUhomeTop matchup728:40 PM ETWSHWSHawayCOLCOLhomeTop matchup429:38 PM ETSTLSTLawayLAALAAhomeTop matchup769:40 PM ETATHATHawayAZAZhomeTop matchup629:40 PM ETCINCINawaySEASEAhomeTop matchup64
PROJ30 on a projected lineup — updates ~2h before first pitch
#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher earned runs Rate11.1% Runs / BF

vs LHB9.6%
vs RHB11.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.5%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload14.1 BF

Expected batters faced14.1
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection1.6 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Steven Kwan (L)13.3%2.0
2. Travis Bazzana (L)10.4%2.0
3. Chase DeLauter (L)13.8%2.0
4. Brayan Rocchio (R)12.5%2.0
5. Rhys Hoskins (R)12.4%2.0
6. Daniel Schneemann (L)11.3%1.1
7. David Fry (R)10.1%1.0
8. Patrick Bailey (R)11.2%1.0
9. Petey Halpin (L)11.7%1.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Kendry Rojas's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.3% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.7%
vs RHB9.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.6%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload15.4 BF

Expected batters faced15.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection1.7 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)14.2%2.0
2. Jackson Merrill (L)13.3%2.0
3. Manny Machado (R)12.2%2.0
4. Ty France (R)12.6%2.0
5. Gavin Sheets (L)11.5%2.0
6. Xander Bogaerts (R)9.9%2.0
7. Jake Cronenworth (L)11.4%1.4
8. Freddy Fermin (R)10.6%1.0
9. Sung-Mun Song (L)16.1%1.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Reynaldo López's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate6.8% Runs / BF

vs LHB7.3%
vs RHB8.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)25.7%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.6 BF

Expected batters faced23.6
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.0 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Shohei Ohtani (L)14.4%3.0
2. Andy Pages (R)10.4%3.0
3. Tommy Edman (L)16.3%3.0
4. Freddie Freeman (L)10.8%3.0
5. Mookie Betts (R)12.8%3.0
6. Miguel Rojas (R)9.9%2.6
7. Teoscar Hernández (R)11.7%2.0
8. Alex Call (R)10.6%2.0
9. Dalton Rushing (L)10.8%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Zack Wheeler's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate8.5% Runs / BF

vs LHB9.0%
vs RHB9.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.2%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.3 BF

Expected batters faced22.3
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.1 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Trevor Larnach (L)10.3%3.0
2. Byron Buxton (R)13.6%3.0
3. Kody Clemens (L)12.3%3.0
4. Josh Bell (R)11.7%3.0
5. Royce Lewis (R)12.8%2.3
6. Victor Caratini (R)10.1%2.0
7. Brooks Lee (R)8.3%2.0
8. Alan Roden (L)11.6%2.0
9. Ryan Kreidler (R)12.1%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Parker Messick's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate8.0% Runs / BF

vs LHB8.0%
vs RHB9.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.0%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.5 BF

Expected batters faced22.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.2 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. JJ Wetherholt (L)16.4%3.0
2. Iván Herrera (R)11.7%3.0
3. Jordan Walker (R)12.2%3.0
4. Nelson Velázquez (R)12.3%3.0
5. Alec Burleson (L)13.9%2.5
6. Masyn Winn (R)9.5%2.0
7. José Fermín (R)8.8%2.0
8. Lars Nootbaar (L)11.7%2.0
9. Blaze Jordan (R)10.0%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Walbert Ureña's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.6% Runs / BF

vs LHB11.6%
vs RHB9.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)7.5%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload20.2 BF

Expected batters faced20.2
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.2 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Luis Arraez (L)9.7%3.0
2. Bryce Eldridge (L)11.5%3.0
3. Casey Schmitt (R)11.5%2.2
4. Rafael Devers (L)15.3%2.0
5. Heliot Ramos (R)11.4%2.0
6. Jung Hoo Lee (L)10.9%2.0
7. Willy Adames (R)13.1%2.0
8. Drew Gilbert (L)10.7%2.0
9. Daniel Susac (R)9.3%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Luinder Avila's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate9.8% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.6%
vs RHB9.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.6%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload20.7 BF

Expected batters faced20.7
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.3 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Jeremy Peña (R)13.9%3.0
2. Yordan Alvarez (L)11.9%3.0
3. Isaac Paredes (R)11.7%2.7
4. Jose Altuve (R)13.1%2.0
5. LaMonte Wade Jr. (L)11.7%2.0
6. Yainer Diaz (R)12.6%2.0
7. Taylor Trammell (L)10.7%2.0
8. Zach Dezenzo (R)14.9%2.0
9. Lucas Spence (L)11.7%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Tyler Phillips's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate9.7% Runs / BF

vs LHB9.7%
vs RHB10.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.3%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.3 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Carter Jensen (L)10.7%3.0
2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)11.9%3.0
3. Jac Caglianone (L)12.8%3.0
4. Lane Thomas (R)11.7%3.0
5. Vinnie Pasquantino (L)10.9%2.7
6. Salvador Perez (R)8.9%2.0
7. Michael Massey (L)13.6%2.0
8. Josh Rojas (L)10.6%2.0
9. Isaac Collins (L)12.1%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Tyler Mahle's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate8.9% Runs / BF

vs LHB11.1%
vs RHB8.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.4%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.5 BF

Expected batters faced22.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.3 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Trea Turner (R)14.5%3.0
2. Kyle Schwarber (L)13.0%3.0
3. Bryce Harper (L)9.4%3.0
4. Alec Bohm (R)10.5%3.0
5. Brandon Marsh (L)9.7%2.5
6. Bryson Stott (L)8.8%2.0
7. J.T. Realmuto (R)11.1%2.0
8. Gabriel Rincones Jr. (L)11.7%2.0
9. Justin Crawford (L)14.6%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Justin Wrobleski's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.0% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.7%
vs RHB10.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)5.8%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload20.5 BF

Expected batters faced20.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.4 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Kevin McGonigle (L)11.5%3.0
2. Dillon Dingler (R)12.9%3.0
3. Colt Keith (L)12.0%2.5
4. Riley Greene (L)9.8%2.0
5. Spencer Torkelson (R)12.8%2.0
6. Kerry Carpenter (L)13.8%2.0
7. Hao-Yu Lee (R)9.6%2.0
8. James Outman (L)14.9%2.0
9. Jake Rogers (R)13.6%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

David Peterson's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate12.2% Runs / BF

vs LHB12.9%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.4%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload19.9 BF

Expected batters faced19.9
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.5 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Kyle Stowers (L)10.8%3.0
2. Heriberto Hernández (R)10.8%2.9
3. Xavier Edwards (L)10.4%2.0
4. Liam Hicks (L)11.7%2.0
5. Griffin Conine (L)15.3%2.0
6. Jakob Marsee (L)11.1%2.0
7. Joe Mack (L)11.4%2.0
8. Graham Pauley (L)9.3%2.0
9. Javier Sanoja (R)10.2%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Tatsuya Imai's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate8.7% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.5%
vs RHB8.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.7%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.5 BF

Expected batters faced24.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.5 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)12.3%3.0
2. Seiya Suzuki (R)12.0%3.0
3. Michael Busch (L)12.3%3.0
4. Alex Bregman (R)12.1%3.0
5. Ian Happ (R)10.6%3.0
6. Nico Hoerner (R)11.5%3.0
7. Pedro Ramírez (R)11.7%2.5
8. Carson Kelly (R)13.6%2.0
9. Dansby Swanson (R)15.0%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Framber Valdez's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate11.1% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.3%
vs RHB12.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.0%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload20.5 BF

Expected batters faced20.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.5 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. A.J. Ewing (L)12.8%3.0
2. Juan Soto (L)15.6%3.0
3. Bo Bichette (R)11.5%2.5
4. Francisco Lindor (L)14.0%2.0
5. Jorge Polanco (L)10.4%2.0
6. Jared Young (L)11.3%2.0
7. Luis Robert Jr. (R)10.3%2.0
8. Brett Baty (L)14.2%2.0
9. Francisco Alvarez (R)10.6%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Brandon Sproat's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7
From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.5 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Christian Yelich (L)10.0%3.0
2. Jackson Chourio (R)11.3%3.0
3. Brice Turang (L)11.5%3.0
4. William Contreras (R)11.1%3.0
5. Garrett Mitchell (L)10.7%2.7
6. Andrew Vaughn (R)11.6%2.0
7. Jake Bauers (L)11.6%2.0
8. Cooper Pratt (R)13.0%2.0
9. Joey Ortiz (R)12.8%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Zac Thornton's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.4% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.9%
vs RHB9.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.2%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.5 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. J.P. Crawford (L)11.0%3.0
2. Julio Rodríguez (R)12.8%3.0
3. Cole Young (L)14.2%3.0
4. Randy Arozarena (R)13.3%3.0
5. Cal Raleigh (L)10.3%3.0
6. Josh Naylor (L)11.7%2.2
7. Mitch Garver (R)11.1%2.0
8. Weston Wilson (R)11.2%2.0
9. Colt Emerson (L)8.9%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Chase Burns's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.0% Runs / BF

vs LHB9.3%
vs RHB11.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.9%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.2 BF

Expected batters faced21.2
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.5 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Zach Neto (R)16.0%3.0
2. Mike Trout (R)13.5%3.0
3. Nolan Schanuel (L)11.8%3.0
4. Jorge Soler (R)11.3%2.2
5. Vaughn Grissom (R)11.9%2.0
6. Josh Lowe (L)11.9%2.0
7. Jo Adell (R)13.2%2.0
8. Oswald Peraza (R)10.9%2.0
9. Tyler Heineman (R)9.3%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Matthew Liberatore's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate9.1% Runs / BF

vs LHB7.4%
vs RHB11.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.5%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.5 BF

Expected batters faced24.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.5 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Anthony Seigler (L)11.4%3.0
2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)12.0%3.0
3. Wilyer Abreu (L)12.3%3.0
4. Willson Contreras (R)12.1%3.0
5. Masataka Yoshida (L)13.1%3.0
6. Caleb Durbin (R)13.9%3.0
7. Jarren Duran (L)12.9%2.5
8. Connor Wong (R)9.4%2.0
9. Tsung-Che Cheng (L)13.4%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Kyle Bradish's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.5 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Jacob Wilson (R)12.1%3.0
2. Tyler Soderstrom (L)11.2%3.0
3. Shea Langeliers (R)11.7%3.0
4. Jonah Heim (R)10.3%3.0
5. Joshua Kuroda-Grauer (R)11.7%3.0
6. Colby Thomas (R)11.7%2.0
7. Tommy White (R)11.7%2.0
8. Henry Bolte (R)11.6%2.0
9. Alika Williams (R)11.7%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Kohl Drake's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate11.4% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.7%
vs RHB11.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.8%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.5 BF

Expected batters faced23.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.6 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Yandy Díaz (R)10.8%3.0
2. Jonathan Aranda (L)10.0%3.0
3. Junior Caminero (R)10.6%3.0
4. Cedric Mullins (L)10.2%3.0
5. Chandler Simpson (L)11.7%3.0
6. Victor Mesa Jr. (L)13.3%2.5
7. Richie Palacios (L)12.7%2.0
8. Nick Fortes (R)11.6%2.0
9. Taylor Walls (L)11.9%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Kevin Gausman's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate14.1% Runs / BF

vs LHB13.9%
vs RHB10.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.2%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload20.7 BF

Expected batters faced20.7
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.6 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Ernie Clement (R)11.8%3.0
2. Nathan Lukes (L)12.1%3.0
3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)12.9%2.7
4. George Springer (R)14.4%2.0
5. Kazuma Okamoto (R)13.4%2.0
6. Daulton Varsho (L)12.3%2.0
7. Alejandro Kirk (R)9.2%2.0
8. Andrés Giménez (L)9.9%2.0
9. Myles Straw (R)15.6%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Drew Rasmussen's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate11.7% Runs / BF

vs LHB12.7%
vs RHB9.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.3%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.4 BF

Expected batters faced22.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.7 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Elly De La Cruz (L)15.2%3.0
2. Sal Stewart (R)11.1%3.0
3. JJ Bleday (L)12.2%3.0
4. Spencer Steer (R)12.2%3.0
5. Nathaniel Lowe (L)12.1%2.4
6. Eugenio Suárez (R)13.7%2.0
7. Tyler Stephenson (R)11.3%2.0
8. TJ Friedl (L)9.3%2.0
9. Dane Myers (R)10.4%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Luis Castillo's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate12.0% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.5%
vs RHB12.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.6%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.5 BF

Expected batters faced21.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.7 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Joc Pederson (L)12.4%3.0
2. Wyatt Langford (R)14.3%3.0
3. Josh Jung (R)13.6%3.0
4. Brandon Nimmo (L)13.4%2.5
5. Jake Burger (R)11.4%2.0
6. Ezequiel Duran (R)9.5%2.0
7. Evan Carter (L)11.4%2.0
8. Elias Díaz (R)10.2%2.0
9. Nicky Lopez (L)10.0%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Noah Schultz's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate13.7% Runs / BF

vs LHB13.1%
vs RHB12.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.8%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload19.5 BF

Expected batters faced19.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.9 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Ketel Marte (L)11.4%3.0
2. Geraldo Perdomo (L)15.8%2.5
3. Corbin Carroll (L)13.6%2.0
4. Gabriel Moreno (R)13.5%2.0
5. Max Kepler (L)11.4%2.0
6. Tyler Locklear (R)11.7%2.0
7. Nolan Arenado (R)13.4%2.0
8. Adrian Del Castillo (L)12.6%2.0
9. Ryan Waldschmidt (R)11.4%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Jack Perkins's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate11.5% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.0%
vs RHB11.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.6%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.0 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Taylor Ward (R)14.7%3.0
2. Pete Alonso (R)14.0%3.0
3. Gunnar Henderson (L)9.3%3.0
4. Tyler O'Neill (R)15.4%3.0
5. Coby Mayo (R)13.6%3.0
6. Leody Taveras (R)10.7%2.4
7. Jeremiah Jackson (R)11.5%2.0
8. Christian Encarnacion-Strand (R)9.7%2.0
9. Sam Huff (R)11.8%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Ranger Suarez's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.0% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.0%
vs RHB11.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.1%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.1 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness14.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. James Wood (L)18.6%3.0
2. Curtis Mead (R)14.5%3.0
3. Andrés Chaparro (R)12.7%3.0
4. CJ Abrams (L)14.0%3.0
5. Dylan Crews (R)13.0%3.0
6. Jacob Young (R)12.1%2.0
7. Harry Ford (R)13.0%2.0
8. Luis García Jr. (L)13.3%2.0
9. Nasim Nuñez (L)14.4%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Michael Lorenzen's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate13.5% Runs / BF

vs LHB11.0%
vs RHB14.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.5%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.5 BF

Expected batters faced22.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.3 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Jake McCarthy (L)13.6%3.0
2. Kyle Karros (R)14.3%3.0
3. Cole Carrigg (L)15.4%3.0
4. Hunter Goodman (R)12.6%3.0
5. TJ Rumfield (L)11.2%2.5
6. Willi Castro (L)12.2%2.0
7. Braxton Fulford (R)13.6%2.0
8. Tyler Freeman (R)9.9%2.0
9. Ezequiel Tovar (R)10.4%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Miles Mikolas's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate13.1% Runs / BF

vs LHB12.4%
vs RHB12.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.8%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.3 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Nick Gonzales (R)12.9%3.0
2. Brandon Lowe (L)12.8%3.0
3. Bryan Reynolds (L)15.8%3.0
4. Esmerlyn Valdez (R)15.1%3.0
5. Ryan O'Hearn (L)13.8%3.0
6. Marcell Ozuna (R)10.6%2.1
7. Jared Triolo (R)10.7%2.0
8. Henry Davis (R)10.9%2.0
9. Billy Cook (R)12.9%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Will Warren's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate12.1% Runs / BF

vs LHB15.0%
vs RHB8.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.8%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.5 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Trent Grisham (L)13.8%3.0
2. Ben Rice (L)13.4%3.0
3. Paul Goldschmidt (R)11.4%3.0
4. Cody Bellinger (L)11.0%3.0
5. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)14.7%3.0
6. Jasson Domínguez (L)12.4%2.1
7. Ryan McMahon (L)11.1%2.0
8. Austin Wells (L)10.8%2.0
9. José Caballero (R)11.5%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Bubba Chandler's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate16.4% Runs / BF

vs LHB17.1%
vs RHB12.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.5%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.5 BF

Expected batters faced21.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.8 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Drake Baldwin (L)15.2%3.0
2. Ozzie Albies (L)12.7%3.0
3. Matt Olson (L)16.0%3.0
4. Austin Riley (R)13.2%2.5
5. Michael Harris II (L)11.7%2.0
6. Mauricio Dubón (R)10.2%2.0
7. Joey Bart (R)10.8%2.0
8. Jim Jarvis (L)11.7%2.0
9. Eli White (R)14.8%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Walker Buehler's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate14.5% Runs / BF

vs LHB17.0%
vs RHB9.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.8%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.1 BF

Expected batters faced22.1
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.1 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness13.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Sam Antonacci (L)13.7%3.0
2. Munetaka Murakami (L)14.1%3.0
3. Miguel Vargas (R)14.9%3.0
4. Colson Montgomery (L)13.4%3.0
5. Andrew Benintendi (L)14.3%2.1
6. Kyle Teel (L)14.0%2.0
7. Braden Montgomery (L)13.5%2.0
8. Tristan Peters (L)12.2%2.0
9. Chase Meidroth (R)12.4%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Kumar Rocker's full player page →

What the earned runs allowed board is

The Earned Runs board projects how many earned runs a starter gives up vs his line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

  • His run-prevention rate vs the lineup's hand.
  • The park.
  • Projected length of outing.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Efficiently priced — transparency board. It's also a core input to our team run model (moneyline + team totals), where the edge actually lives.

How to use it

Read it for who's in line for a clean or rough outing; the bettable version is the team-total board it feeds.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays