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Best MLB hits allowed matchups — Thursday, July 23, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Thursday, July 23, 2026 slate — ranked by the fewest hits they're projected to allow. Tap any card for the full breakdown.

12:15 PM ETSDSDawayATLATLhomeTop matchup521:10 PM ETMINMINawayCLECLEhomeTop matchup713:07 PM ETTBTBawayTORTORhomeTop matchup935:15 PM ETAZAZawaySTLSTLhomeTop matchup1006:40 PM ETKCKCawayDETDEThomeTop matchup99
PROJ10 on a projected lineup — updates ~2h before first pitch
#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher hits allowed Rate25.4% Hits / BF

vs LHB25.3%
vs RHB25.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.8%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload16.3 BF

Expected batters faced16.3
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.0 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness21.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. JJ Wetherholt (L)21.5%2.0
2. Iván Herrera (R)22.1%2.0
3. Alec Burleson (L)25.7%2.0
4. Jordan Walker (R)23.0%2.0
5. Lars Nootbaar (L)21.2%2.0
6. Masyn Winn (R)19.7%2.0
7. Nathan Church (L)17.9%2.0
8. Blaze Jordan (R)22.2%1.3
9. José Fermín (R)21.8%1.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Brandon Pfaadt's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate17.2% Hits / BF

vs LHB16.2%
vs RHB18.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)23.5%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.5 BF

Expected batters faced23.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.0 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Carter Jensen (L)21.3%3.0
2. Lane Thomas (R)20.0%3.0
3. Vinnie Pasquantino (L)24.1%3.0
4. Salvador Perez (R)20.8%3.0
5. Michael Massey (L)23.8%3.0
6. Isaac Collins (L)24.0%2.5
7. Starling Marte (R)23.4%2.0
8. Josh Rojas (L)20.1%2.0
9. Andrew Velazquez (L)22.5%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Troy Melton's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate20.3% Hits / BF

vs LHB23.0%
vs RHB18.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.9%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload19.8 BF

Expected batters faced19.8
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.0 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Ernie Clement (R)26.3%3.0
2. Nathan Lukes (L)16.7%2.8
3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)25.0%2.0
4. George Springer (R)20.1%2.0
5. Yohendrick Piñango (L)22.5%2.0
6. Alejandro Kirk (R)22.6%2.0
7. Daulton Varsho (L)24.4%2.0
8. Sean Keys (L)22.5%2.0
9. Andrés Giménez (L)18.3%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Ian Seymour's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate19.8% Hits / BF

vs LHB17.3%
vs RHB23.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.8%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.3 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Trevor Larnach (L)24.9%3.0
2. Brooks Lee (L)21.6%3.0
3. Kody Clemens (L)19.7%3.0
4. Josh Bell (L)23.3%3.0
5. Royce Lewis (R)20.5%2.8
6. Victor Caratini (L)22.8%2.0
7. Alan Roden (L)18.0%2.0
8. Luke Keaschall (R)25.5%2.0
9. Alex Jackson (R)23.8%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Gavin Williams's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate20.3% Hits / BF

vs LHB21.6%
vs RHB19.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)-0.1%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.8 BF

Expected batters faced21.8
From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.5 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness21.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Kevin McGonigle (L)22.8%3.0
2. Dillon Dingler (R)24.4%3.0
3. Colt Keith (L)24.0%3.0
4. Riley Greene (L)24.6%2.8
5. Spencer Torkelson (R)19.0%2.0
6. Kerry Carpenter (L)22.5%2.0
7. Zach McKinstry (L)22.5%2.0
8. Hao-Yu Lee (R)23.8%2.0
9. James Outman (L)13.3%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Randy Dobnak's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate19.6% Hits / BF

vs LHB18.4%
vs RHB20.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)25.1%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.5 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)22.0%3.0
2. Luis Rengifo (R)20.6%3.0
3. Manny Machado (R)21.1%3.0
4. Ty France (R)24.4%3.0
5. Jackson Merrill (L)26.1%3.0
6. Luis Campusano (R)18.7%2.1
7. Xander Bogaerts (R)23.2%2.0
8. Jake Cronenworth (L)20.9%2.0
9. Jase Bowen (R)22.5%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Chris Sale's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate23.0% Hits / BF

vs LHB16.6%
vs RHB29.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.1%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.1 BF

Expected batters faced22.1
From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.6 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Yandy Díaz (R)26.9%3.0
2. Jonathan Aranda (L)27.3%3.0
3. Junior Caminero (R)23.5%3.0
4. Cedric Mullins (L)18.6%3.0
5. Chandler Simpson (L)27.2%2.1
6. Victor Mesa Jr. (L)19.0%2.0
7. Taylor Walls (L)18.7%2.0
8. Richie Palacios (L)20.3%2.0
9. Hunter Feduccia (L)20.5%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Shane Bieber's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate23.8% Hits / BF

vs LHB25.0%
vs RHB21.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.4%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload19.5 BF

Expected batters faced19.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.8 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness23.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Drake Baldwin (L)25.7%3.0
2. Ozzie Albies (L)19.7%2.5
3. Matt Olson (L)22.6%2.0
4. Michael Harris II (L)25.5%2.0
5. Austin Riley (R)21.9%2.0
6. Mike Yastrzemski (L)21.4%2.0
7. Mauricio Dubón (R)22.9%2.0
8. Jim Jarvis (L)22.5%2.0
9. Brewer Hicklen (R)26.4%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Griffin Canning's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate21.7% Hits / BF

vs LHB20.6%
vs RHB23.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.2%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.0 BF

Expected batters faced24.0
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.1 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness23.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Steven Kwan (L)24.2%3.0
2. José Ramírez (L)22.5%3.0
3. Chase DeLauter (L)24.1%3.0
4. Brayan Rocchio (L)22.8%3.0
5. Travis Bazzana (L)23.5%3.0
6. Kyle Manzardo (L)22.5%3.0
7. Daniel Schneemann (L)22.5%2.0
8. Patrick Bailey (L)22.5%2.0
9. Petey Halpin (L)25.4%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Taj Bradley's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate22.9% Hits / BF

vs LHB24.7%
vs RHB20.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.4%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.2 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness20.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Ketel Marte (L)22.2%3.0
2. Geraldo Perdomo (L)20.5%3.0
3. Corbin Carroll (L)19.9%3.0
4. Adrian Del Castillo (L)23.1%3.0
5. Max Kepler (L)20.0%3.0
6. Pavin Smith (L)20.7%2.4
7. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (R)21.3%2.0
8. Ildemaro Vargas (L)21.7%2.0
9. Tommy Troy (R)15.8%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
BOVBovada+100-140
DKDraftKings+102-135
FANFanatics+115-165

We project 5.2 H vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Michael McGreevy's full player page →

What the hits allowed board is

The Hits Allowed board projects the contact a starter is likely to surrender. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

  • His hit-suppression vs this lineup.
  • The park.
  • Projected batters faced.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Graded transparency — the market prices it well. A sharp projection, no posted edge.

How to use it

Context on a starter's contact profile; research, not a lean.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays