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Best MLB hits allowed matchups — Wednesday, July 22, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Wednesday, July 22, 2026 slate — ranked by the fewest hits they're projected to allow. Tap any card for the full breakdown.

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PROJ33 on a projected lineup — updates ~2h before first pitch
#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher hits allowed Rate19.4% Hits / BF

vs LHB17.4%
vs RHB20.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.8%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload9.5 BF

Expected batters faced9.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.0 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness23.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Yandy Díaz (R)26.6%1.6
2. Jonathan Aranda (L)27.0%1.0
3. Junior Caminero (R)23.3%1.0
4. Cedric Mullins (L)17.8%1.0
5. Jonny DeLuca (R)25.1%1.0
6. Chandler Simpson (L)26.3%1.0
7. Ben Williamson (R)25.1%1.0
8. Taylor Walls (L)18.7%1.0
9. Nick Fortes (R)23.6%1.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Braydon Fisher's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate25.0% Hits / BF

vs LHB26.9%
vs RHB23.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.9%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload8.8 BF

Expected batters faced8.8
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.0 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness20.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Sam Antonacci (L)20.4%1.0
2. Munetaka Murakami (L)15.9%1.0
3. Miguel Vargas (R)20.1%1.0
4. Braden Montgomery (R)20.7%1.0
5. Andrew Benintendi (L)24.0%1.0
6. Tristan Peters (L)16.8%1.0
7. Chase Meidroth (R)26.3%1.0
8. Luisangel Acuña (R)25.3%1.0
9. Drew Romo (R)17.5%0.8

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Tyler Alexander's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate22.3% Hits / BF

vs LHB22.4%
vs RHB22.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.9%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload16.4 BF

Expected batters faced16.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.6 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)23.6%2.0
2. Seiya Suzuki (R)23.1%2.0
3. Alex Bregman (R)22.8%2.0
4. Carson Kelly (R)20.1%2.0
5. Michael Busch (L)21.9%2.0
6. Nico Hoerner (R)24.2%2.0
7. Ian Happ (L)20.9%2.0
8. Dansby Swanson (R)20.5%1.4
9. Kevin Alcántara (R)22.2%1.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Keider Montero's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate18.4% Hits / BF

vs LHB17.4%
vs RHB21.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)25.4%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload19.7 BF

Expected batters faced19.7
From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.8 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. A.J. Ewing (L)24.7%3.0
2. Juan Soto (L)21.8%2.7
3. Bo Bichette (R)25.9%2.0
4. Francisco Lindor (L)24.6%2.0
5. Carson Benge (L)24.5%2.0
6. Luis Robert Jr. (R)20.1%2.0
7. Jared Young (L)21.8%2.0
8. Marcus Semien (R)19.6%2.0
9. Luis Torrens (R)21.1%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Logan Henderson's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate19.4% Hits / BF

vs LHB19.3%
vs RHB19.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)7.5%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.2 BF

Expected batters faced21.2
From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.0 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness21.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)22.0%3.0
2. Jake Cronenworth (L)20.9%3.0
3. Manny Machado (R)21.1%3.0
4. Ty France (R)24.3%2.2
5. Jackson Merrill (L)26.1%2.0
6. Luis Campusano (R)18.5%2.0
7. Gavin Sheets (L)20.6%2.0
8. Xander Bogaerts (R)23.2%2.0
9. Luis Rengifo (R)20.6%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Martín Pérez's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate19.5% Hits / BF

vs LHB20.8%
vs RHB18.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.4%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.3 BF

Expected batters faced21.3
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.1 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Jackson Chourio (R)23.3%3.0
2. Brice Turang (L)23.0%3.0
3. William Contreras (R)22.4%3.0
4. Andrew Vaughn (R)22.3%2.3
5. Garrett Mitchell (L)25.1%2.0
6. Gary Sánchez (R)18.0%2.0
7. Luis Lara (L)22.5%2.0
8. Cooper Pratt (R)26.3%2.0
9. Joey Ortiz (R)20.1%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Christian Scott's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate22.7% Hits / BF

vs LHB23.2%
vs RHB22.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.3%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload20.5 BF

Expected batters faced20.5
From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.4 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness21.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Zach Neto (R)22.0%3.0
2. Mike Trout (R)19.1%3.0
3. Nolan Schanuel (L)25.8%2.5
4. Jorge Soler (R)19.1%2.0
5. Vaughn Grissom (R)24.0%2.0
6. Josh Lowe (L)20.2%2.0
7. Jo Adell (R)19.6%2.0
8. Denzer Guzman (R)24.0%2.0
9. Logan O'Hoppe (R)17.7%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hunter Dobbins's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate20.9% Hits / BF

vs LHB21.1%
vs RHB21.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.9%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.0 BF

Expected batters faced21.0
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.4 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Elly De La Cruz (L)25.2%3.0
2. Sal Stewart (R)21.0%3.0
3. JJ Bleday (L)20.2%3.0
4. Spencer Steer (R)20.6%2.0
5. Eugenio Suárez (R)23.4%2.0
6. Tyler Stephenson (R)23.9%2.0
7. Dane Myers (R)20.9%2.0
8. Edwin Arroyo (L)22.5%2.0
9. Ke'Bryan Hayes (R)19.9%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Emerson Hancock's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate19.5% Hits / BF

vs LHB13.9%
vs RHB27.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.1%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.5 BF

Expected batters faced23.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.5 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness23.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Otto Lopez (R)25.8%3.0
2. Kyle Stowers (L)21.4%3.0
3. Heriberto Hernández (R)21.0%3.0
4. Xavier Edwards (L)26.3%3.0
5. Liam Hicks (L)24.9%3.0
6. Griffin Conine (L)25.0%2.5
7. Jakob Marsee (L)19.9%2.0
8. Javier Sanoja (R)22.5%2.0
9. Joe Mack (L)22.8%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Peter Lambert's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate20.5% Hits / BF

vs LHB17.9%
vs RHB21.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)6.4%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.2 BF

Expected batters faced21.2
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.5 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Wyatt Langford (R)21.2%3.0
2. Justin Foscue (R)21.9%3.0
3. Josh Jung (R)26.1%3.0
4. Brandon Nimmo (L)26.5%2.2
5. Jake Burger (R)22.8%2.0
6. Ezequiel Duran (R)21.4%2.0
7. Cam Cauley (R)22.5%2.0
8. Elias Díaz (R)21.1%2.0
9. Alejandro Osuna (L)20.7%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Anthony Kay's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate21.5% Hits / BF

vs LHB23.3%
vs RHB19.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.6%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.3 BF

Expected batters faced21.3
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.7 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness23.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Nathan Lukes (L)25.9%3.0
2. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)24.7%3.0
3. Ernie Clement (R)26.6%3.0
4. George Springer (R)24.0%2.3
5. Daulton Varsho (L)20.0%2.0
6. Kazuma Okamoto (R)19.7%2.0
7. Brandon Valenzuela (L)23.8%2.0
8. Andrés Giménez (L)21.5%2.0
9. Myles Straw (R)21.4%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Griffin Jax's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate20.4% Hits / BF

vs LHB20.8%
vs RHB20.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.8%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.5 BF

Expected batters faced23.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.7 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness21.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Trent Grisham (L)19.8%3.0
2. Ben Rice (L)23.1%3.0
3. Paul Goldschmidt (R)22.0%3.0
4. Cody Bellinger (L)23.4%3.0
5. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)22.4%3.0
6. Jasson Domínguez (L)23.6%2.5
7. Ryan McMahon (L)20.3%2.0
8. Austin Wells (L)19.1%2.0
9. José Caballero (R)22.3%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
BOVBovada+105-145
DKDraftKings+107-141

We project 4.7 H vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Bubba Chandler's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate19.3% Hits / BF

vs LHB18.8%
vs RHB20.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.6%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.6 BF

Expected batters faced23.6
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.8 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness23.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Drake Baldwin (L)26.2%3.0
2. Ozzie Albies (L)20.5%3.0
3. Matt Olson (L)22.8%3.0
4. Austin Riley (R)22.1%3.0
5. Michael Harris II (L)26.0%3.0
6. Mauricio Dubón (R)22.8%2.6
7. Mike Yastrzemski (L)21.3%2.0
8. Brewer Hicklen (R)28.6%2.0
9. Jim Jarvis (L)22.5%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Michael King's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate22.5% Hits / BF

vs LHB22.5%
vs RHB22.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload20.8 BF

Expected batters faced20.8
From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.8 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness23.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. James Wood (L)22.1%3.0
2. Luis García Jr. (L)25.5%3.0
3. José Tena (L)22.9%2.8
4. CJ Abrams (L)24.3%2.0
5. Curtis Mead (R)23.4%2.0
6. Daylen Lile (L)24.1%2.0
7. Keibert Ruiz (L)22.8%2.0
8. Nasim Nuñez (L)22.9%2.0
9. Jacob Young (R)21.2%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Gabriel Hughes's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate19.8% Hits / BF

vs LHB18.8%
vs RHB21.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.7%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.7 BF

Expected batters faced23.7
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.9 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Carter Jensen (L)21.2%3.0
2. Lane Thomas (R)20.6%3.0
3. Jac Caglianone (L)21.3%3.0
4. Salvador Perez (R)21.2%3.0
5. Vinnie Pasquantino (L)23.9%3.0
6. Starling Marte (R)22.7%2.7
7. Michael Massey (L)23.9%2.0
8. Nick Loftin (R)20.2%2.0
9. Tyler Tolbert (R)29.5%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Landen Roupp's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate21.6% Hits / BF

vs LHB23.9%
vs RHB19.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.5%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.5 BF

Expected batters faced23.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.9 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness21.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Randy Arozarena (R)21.1%3.0
2. Julio Rodríguez (R)24.3%3.0
3. Dominic Canzone (L)23.8%3.0
4. Cal Raleigh (L)18.1%3.0
5. Josh Naylor (L)22.7%3.0
6. Cole Young (L)22.3%2.5
7. Victor Robles (R)23.2%2.0
8. Buddy Kennedy (R)16.0%2.0
9. Colt Emerson (L)18.6%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Brady Singer's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate22.5% Hits / BF

vs LHB22.5%
vs RHB22.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.9 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness21.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Taylor Ward (R)23.2%3.0
2. Pete Alonso (R)20.9%3.0
3. Gunnar Henderson (L)21.7%3.0
4. Tyler O'Neill (R)21.5%3.0
5. Coby Mayo (R)22.5%2.9
6. Leody Taveras (R)19.1%2.0
7. Christian Encarnacion-Strand (R)19.6%2.0
8. Jackson Holliday (L)18.2%2.0
9. Chadwick Tromp (R)25.6%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Jake Bennett's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate19.2% Hits / BF

vs LHB20.2%
vs RHB19.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.7%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.6 BF

Expected batters faced24.6
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.9 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Anthony Seigler (L)19.0%3.0
2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)25.8%3.0
3. Wilyer Abreu (L)22.3%3.0
4. Willson Contreras (R)23.6%3.0
5. Masataka Yoshida (L)25.6%3.0
6. Caleb Durbin (R)23.8%3.0
7. Jarren Duran (L)21.6%2.6
8. Connor Wong (R)19.6%2.0
9. Tsung-Che Cheng (L)22.3%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Kyle Bradish's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate20.6% Hits / BF

vs LHB18.5%
vs RHB23.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.0%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.9 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness21.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Nick Gonzales (R)26.0%3.0
2. Brandon Lowe (L)23.7%3.0
3. Bryan Reynolds (L)21.6%3.0
4. Esmerlyn Valdez (R)23.4%3.0
5. Ryan O'Hearn (L)23.9%3.0
6. Marcell Ozuna (R)21.3%2.1
7. Jared Triolo (R)19.2%2.0
8. Henry Davis (R)15.7%2.0
9. Billy Cook (R)21.8%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Gerrit Cole's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate21.7% Hits / BF

vs LHB21.6%
vs RHB22.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.1%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.1 BF

Expected batters faced22.1
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.9 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Trea Turner (R)26.0%3.0
2. Kyle Schwarber (L)23.0%3.0
3. Bryce Harper (L)20.9%3.0
4. Alec Bohm (R)24.2%3.0
5. Edmundo Sosa (R)25.4%2.1
6. J.T. Realmuto (R)22.3%2.0
7. Brandon Marsh (L)20.0%2.0
8. Derek Hill (R)22.4%2.0
9. Bryson Stott (L)21.6%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Eric Lauer's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate22.9% Hits / BF

vs LHB24.6%
vs RHB21.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.7%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.6 BF

Expected batters faced21.6
From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.0 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Anthony Seigler (L)19.0%3.0
2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)25.8%3.0
3. Wilyer Abreu (L)22.3%3.0
4. Willson Contreras (R)23.6%2.6
5. Masataka Yoshida (L)25.6%2.0
6. Caleb Durbin (R)23.8%2.0
7. Jarren Duran (L)21.6%2.0
8. Andruw Monasterio (R)23.0%2.0
9. Carlos Narváez (R)21.4%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Dean Kremer's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate20.0% Hits / BF

vs LHB19.2%
vs RHB20.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.0%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.3 BF

Expected batters faced24.3
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.0 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness23.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Nick Gonzales (R)24.6%3.0
2. Brandon Lowe (L)20.3%3.0
3. Bryan Reynolds (R)24.0%3.0
4. Esmerlyn Valdez (R)28.5%3.0
5. Ryan O'Hearn (L)23.1%3.0
6. Marcell Ozuna (R)20.6%3.0
7. Jared Triolo (R)24.6%2.3
8. Henry Davis (R)17.0%2.0
9. Billy Cook (R)25.8%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Max Fried's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate22.2% Hits / BF

vs LHB21.4%
vs RHB23.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.5%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.0 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Steven Kwan (L)24.4%3.0
2. Brayan Rocchio (L)22.1%3.0
3. Chase DeLauter (L)23.8%3.0
4. Rhys Hoskins (R)19.7%3.0
5. David Fry (R)18.1%3.0
6. Travis Bazzana (L)23.8%2.4
7. Gabriel Arias (R)22.5%2.0
8. Austin Hedges (R)17.3%2.0
9. Petey Halpin (L)26.2%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Bailey Ober's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate22.2% Hits / BF

vs LHB22.2%
vs RHB22.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)21.8%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.1 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. JJ Wetherholt (L)21.8%3.0
2. Iván Herrera (R)22.2%3.0
3. Alec Burleson (L)22.7%3.0
4. Jordan Walker (R)24.1%3.0
5. Lars Nootbaar (L)19.0%2.9
6. Masyn Winn (R)23.9%2.0
7. Nathan Church (L)24.1%2.0
8. Blaze Jordan (R)25.1%2.0
9. Jimmy Crooks (L)23.2%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Reid Detmers's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate23.3% Hits / BF

vs LHB24.2%
vs RHB21.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.0%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.2 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Heliot Ramos (R)23.6%3.0
2. Bryce Eldridge (L)21.3%3.0
3. Casey Schmitt (R)23.4%3.0
4. Rafael Devers (L)21.6%3.0
5. Willy Adames (R)21.5%2.7
6. Jung Hoo Lee (L)25.4%2.0
7. Jesus Rodriguez (R)22.5%2.0
8. Drew Gilbert (L)20.8%2.0
9. Christian Koss (R)22.5%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Seth Lugo's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate23.3% Hits / BF

vs LHB22.9%
vs RHB23.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.5%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.5 BF

Expected batters faced21.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.2 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness23.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Jake McCarthy (L)25.2%3.0
2. Cole Carrigg (L)22.8%3.0
3. Hunter Goodman (R)23.9%3.0
4. Willi Castro (L)21.5%2.5
5. TJ Rumfield (L)26.3%2.0
6. Kyle Karros (R)22.0%2.0
7. Mickey Moniak (L)24.6%2.0
8. Troy Johnston (L)25.1%2.0
9. Ezequiel Tovar (R)20.4%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Cade Cavalli's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate23.4% Hits / BF

vs LHB25.0%
vs RHB21.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.2%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.4 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness21.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Trent Grisham (L)19.8%3.0
2. Ben Rice (L)23.1%3.0
3. Paul Goldschmidt (R)22.0%3.0
4. Cody Bellinger (L)23.4%3.0
5. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)22.4%3.0
6. Jasson Domínguez (L)23.6%2.0
7. Ryan McMahon (L)20.3%2.0
8. Austin Wells (L)19.1%2.0
9. José Caballero (R)22.3%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Mitch Keller's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate24.4% Hits / BF

vs LHB25.1%
vs RHB23.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.5%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.5 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness21.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Gleyber Torres (R)23.8%3.0
2. Kevin McGonigle (L)22.8%3.0
3. Hao-Yu Lee (R)22.7%3.0
4. Dillon Dingler (R)23.9%3.0
5. Riley Greene (L)24.6%3.0
6. Spencer Torkelson (R)19.1%2.1
7. Matt Vierling (R)19.0%2.0
8. Ben Malgeri (R)22.5%2.0
9. Jake Rogers (R)18.0%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Colin Rea's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate21.5% Hits / BF

vs LHB20.8%
vs RHB22.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.9%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload25.7 BF

Expected batters faced25.7
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.5 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness21.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Jeremy Peña (R)26.0%3.0
2. Yordan Alvarez (L)27.0%3.0
3. Isaac Paredes (R)20.5%3.0
4. Jose Altuve (R)22.2%3.0
5. LaMonte Wade Jr. (L)16.6%3.0
6. Christian Walker (R)21.0%3.0
7. Taylor Trammell (L)19.8%3.0
8. Lucas Spence (L)22.5%2.7
9. Christian Vázquez (R)21.5%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Sandy Alcantara's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate25.3% Hits / BF

vs LHB24.7%
vs RHB24.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.8%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.3 BF

Expected batters faced22.3
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.5 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Austin Martin (R)22.0%3.0
2. Byron Buxton (R)24.7%3.0
3. Ryan Jeffers (R)21.4%3.0
4. Josh Bell (L)23.4%3.0
5. Royce Lewis (R)20.8%2.3
6. Victor Caratini (L)23.2%2.0
7. Kody Clemens (L)19.4%2.0
8. Luke Keaschall (R)25.9%2.0
9. Ryan Kreidler (R)20.5%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Slade Cecconi's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate21.6% Hits / BF

vs LHB20.6%
vs RHB23.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.3%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload25.2 BF

Expected batters faced25.2
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.5 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness21.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Jacob Wilson (R)28.1%3.0
2. Tyler Soderstrom (L)24.4%3.0
3. Shea Langeliers (R)20.9%3.0
4. Colby Thomas (R)17.9%3.0
5. Joshua Kuroda-Grauer (R)22.5%3.0
6. Jonah Heim (L)17.3%3.0
7. Tommy White (R)22.5%3.0
8. Alika Williams (R)20.4%2.2
9. Henry Bolte (R)20.4%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Merrill Kelly's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate23.3% Hits / BF

vs LHB21.6%
vs RHB24.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.2%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6
From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.6 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness23.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Ketel Marte (R)24.8%3.0
2. Geraldo Perdomo (R)25.9%3.0
3. Tim Tawa (R)20.1%3.0
4. Gabriel Moreno (R)24.6%3.0
5. Ildemaro Vargas (R)26.9%2.6
6. Nolan Arenado (R)24.3%2.0
7. Tyler Locklear (R)16.0%2.0
8. Ryan Waldschmidt (R)25.0%2.0
9. Jorge Barrosa (R)18.9%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Gage Jump's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate24.3% Hits / BF

vs LHB23.0%
vs RHB26.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.9%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.7 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Shohei Ohtani (L)23.3%3.0
2. Andy Pages (R)23.0%3.0
3. Freddie Freeman (L)25.4%3.0
4. Max Muncy (L)21.9%3.0
5. Mookie Betts (R)22.6%3.0
6. Kyle Tucker (L)21.1%2.4
7. Tommy Edman (L)23.0%2.0
8. Alex Call (R)21.5%2.0
9. Eliezer Alfonzo (L)22.5%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Aaron Nola's full player page →

What the hits allowed board is

The Hits Allowed board projects the contact a starter is likely to surrender. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

  • His hit-suppression vs this lineup.
  • The park.
  • Projected batters faced.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Graded transparency — the market prices it well. A sharp projection, no posted edge.

How to use it

Context on a starter's contact profile; research, not a lean.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays