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Best MLB hits allowed matchups — Friday, July 24, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Friday, July 24, 2026 slate — ranked by the fewest hits they're projected to allow. Tap any card for the full breakdown.

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PROJ28 on a projected lineup — updates ~2h before first pitch
#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher hits allowed Rate22.5% Hits / BF

vs LHB22.5%
vs RHB22.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload9.6 BF

Expected batters faced9.6
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.1 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness21.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Kevin McGonigle (L)23.3%1.6
2. Gleyber Torres (R)23.7%1.0
3. Colt Keith (L)23.3%1.0
4. Riley Greene (L)25.2%1.0
5. Dillon Dingler (R)24.2%1.0
6. Kerry Carpenter (L)20.9%1.0
7. Spencer Torkelson (R)20.0%1.0
8. Zach McKinstry (L)21.0%1.0
9. James Outman (L)13.7%1.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Beck Way's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate26.5% Hits / BF

vs LHB27.2%
vs RHB25.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)5.8%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload12.3 BF

Expected batters faced12.3
From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.3 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Corbin Carroll (L)23.8%2.0
2. Geraldo Perdomo (R)24.8%2.0
3. Gabriel Moreno (R)24.2%2.0
4. Max Kepler (L)23.7%1.3
5. Adrian Del Castillo (L)20.7%1.0
6. Tim Tawa (R)19.3%1.0
7. Ildemaro Vargas (R)27.7%1.0
8. Tyler Locklear (R)16.0%1.0
9. Ryan Waldschmidt (R)23.9%1.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Carson Palmquist's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate20.0% Hits / BF

vs LHB21.8%
vs RHB18.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.1%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload19.2 BF

Expected batters faced19.2
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.7 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness21.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)23.0%3.0
2. Seiya Suzuki (R)23.0%2.2
3. Michael Busch (L)22.1%2.0
4. Alex Bregman (R)22.1%2.0
5. Ian Happ (L)21.5%2.0
6. Nico Hoerner (R)23.4%2.0
7. Michael Conforto (L)18.4%2.0
8. Carson Kelly (R)19.3%2.0
9. Dansby Swanson (R)20.5%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Jared Jones's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate19.9% Hits / BF

vs LHB13.4%
vs RHB22.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.1%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.2 BF

Expected batters faced22.2
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.7 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness20.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Steven Kwan (L)20.8%3.0
2. José Ramírez (R)28.0%3.0
3. Chase DeLauter (L)31.3%3.0
4. Brayan Rocchio (R)20.6%3.0
5. Travis Bazzana (L)17.5%2.2
6. Rhys Hoskins (R)17.4%2.0
7. Kyle Manzardo (L)17.8%2.0
8. Patrick Bailey (R)17.4%2.0
9. Petey Halpin (L)15.6%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Shane McClanahan's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate20.1% Hits / BF

vs LHB18.0%
vs RHB21.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.1%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload18.5 BF

Expected batters faced18.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.8 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness21.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Brooks Lee (R)23.1%2.5
2. Byron Buxton (R)25.2%2.0
3. Ryan Jeffers (R)23.9%2.0
4. Josh Bell (R)21.6%2.0
5. Kody Clemens (L)21.0%2.0
6. Royce Lewis (R)21.1%2.0
7. Austin Martin (R)21.2%2.0
8. Luke Keaschall (R)20.2%2.0
9. Ryan Kreidler (R)16.6%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Jacob Lopez's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate17.2% Hits / BF

vs LHB17.8%
vs RHB17.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.4%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.1 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Masataka Yoshida (L)22.5%3.0
2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)25.6%3.0
3. Wilyer Abreu (L)22.5%3.0
4. Willson Contreras (R)24.1%3.0
5. Caleb Durbin (R)23.8%3.0
6. Romy Gonzalez (R)22.5%2.2
7. Jarren Duran (L)21.0%2.0
8. Connor Wong (R)19.5%2.0
9. Tsung-Che Cheng (L)22.5%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Trey Yesavage's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate19.0% Hits / BF

vs LHB19.1%
vs RHB19.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.8%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.5 BF

Expected batters faced22.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.2 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Sam Antonacci (L)24.4%3.0
2. Munetaka Murakami (L)20.7%3.0
3. Miguel Vargas (R)19.9%3.0
4. Colson Montgomery (L)19.4%3.0
5. Braden Montgomery (L)23.1%2.5
6. Chase Meidroth (R)23.5%2.0
7. Andrew Benintendi (L)22.5%2.0
8. Edgar Quero (L)19.7%2.0
9. Tristan Peters (L)25.8%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Spencer Arrighetti's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate21.6% Hits / BF

vs LHB21.7%
vs RHB21.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.4%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload20.5 BF

Expected batters faced20.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.3 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness21.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Taylor Ward (R)22.5%3.0
2. Pete Alonso (R)22.5%3.0
3. Gunnar Henderson (L)22.8%2.5
4. Tyler O'Neill (R)22.5%2.0
5. Coby Mayo (R)17.6%2.0
6. Leody Taveras (L)22.5%2.0
7. Christian Encarnacion-Strand (R)21.3%2.0
8. Jackson Holliday (L)22.5%2.0
9. Sam Huff (R)22.5%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Grant Holmes's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate19.9% Hits / BF

vs LHB18.2%
vs RHB21.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.3%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.1 BF

Expected batters faced22.1
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.3 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Trent Grisham (L)22.5%3.0
2. Ben Rice (L)22.8%3.0
3. Paul Goldschmidt (R)22.5%3.0
4. Cody Bellinger (L)25.3%3.0
5. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)22.5%2.1
6. Jasson Domínguez (R)22.5%2.0
7. Anthony Volpe (R)22.6%2.0
8. Ryan McMahon (L)22.5%2.0
9. Ali Sánchez (R)21.6%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Jesús Luzardo's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate19.9% Hits / BF

vs LHB23.2%
vs RHB18.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)26.9%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.5 BF

Expected batters faced22.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.5 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness21.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Carter Jensen (L)24.1%3.0
2. Lane Thomas (R)21.4%3.0
3. Vinnie Pasquantino (L)19.9%3.0
4. Salvador Perez (R)23.0%3.0
5. Michael Massey (L)25.9%2.5
6. Isaac Collins (R)18.5%2.0
7. Josh Rojas (L)16.2%2.0
8. Nick Loftin (R)21.0%2.0
9. Andrew Velazquez (R)22.5%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Tarik Skubal's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate21.8% Hits / BF

vs LHB21.9%
vs RHB21.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.7%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.5 BF

Expected batters faced22.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.6 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness21.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Wyatt Langford (R)23.6%3.0
2. Justin Foscue (R)18.3%3.0
3. Jake Burger (R)21.5%3.0
4. Brandon Nimmo (L)20.6%3.0
5. Ezequiel Duran (R)22.5%2.5
6. Cam Cauley (R)22.5%2.0
7. Elias Díaz (R)19.4%2.0
8. Alejandro Osuna (L)20.9%2.0
9. Nicky Lopez (L)23.2%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Bryce Miller's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate22.8% Hits / BF

vs LHB22.0%
vs RHB23.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.9%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload20.7 BF

Expected batters faced20.7
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.6 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Elly De La Cruz (L)22.5%3.0
2. Sal Stewart (R)20.7%3.0
3. JJ Bleday (L)19.8%2.7
4. Spencer Steer (R)22.5%2.0
5. Nathaniel Lowe (L)22.5%2.0
6. Tyler Stephenson (R)23.9%2.0
7. Dane Myers (R)21.8%2.0
8. Edwin Arroyo (L)22.5%2.0
9. Ke'Bryan Hayes (R)22.5%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Dustin May's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate25.2% Hits / BF

vs LHB24.9%
vs RHB24.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.1%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload20.2 BF

Expected batters faced20.2
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.7 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness21.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. JJ Wetherholt (L)21.8%3.0
2. Jordan Walker (R)22.9%3.0
3. Alec Burleson (L)25.9%2.2
4. Lars Nootbaar (L)21.1%2.0
5. Masyn Winn (R)19.7%2.0
6. José Fermín (R)22.0%2.0
7. Nathan Church (L)18.0%2.0
8. Blaze Jordan (R)22.2%2.0
9. Jimmy Crooks (L)15.8%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Rhett Lowder's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate23.1% Hits / BF

vs LHB23.2%
vs RHB23.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.4%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.0 BF

Expected batters faced21.0
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.8 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Trea Turner (R)22.5%3.0
2. Kyle Schwarber (L)22.5%3.0
3. Bryce Harper (L)22.0%3.0
4. Alec Bohm (R)21.9%2.0
5. Edmundo Sosa (R)22.5%2.0
6. Derek Hill (R)22.8%2.0
7. Bryan De La Cruz (R)18.9%2.0
8. Bryson Stott (L)23.4%2.0
9. Rafael Marchán (L)22.5%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Will Warren's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate21.0% Hits / BF

vs LHB20.7%
vs RHB21.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.9%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.8 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Nick Gonzales (R)22.5%3.0
2. Jared Triolo (R)22.5%3.0
3. Bryan Reynolds (R)23.6%3.0
4. Esmerlyn Valdez (R)22.5%3.0
5. Ryan O'Hearn (L)22.5%2.6
6. Marcell Ozuna (R)22.5%2.0
7. Brandon Lowe (L)19.2%2.0
8. Rafael Flores Jr. (R)22.5%2.0
9. Billy Cook (R)25.3%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Matthew Boyd's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate21.6% Hits / BF

vs LHB21.0%
vs RHB22.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.7%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.4 BF

Expected batters faced22.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.8 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Shohei Ohtani (L)24.5%3.0
2. Andy Pages (R)28.2%3.0
3. Freddie Freeman (L)22.5%3.0
4. Max Muncy (L)18.2%3.0
5. Mookie Betts (R)22.5%2.4
6. Kyle Tucker (L)22.2%2.0
7. Teoscar Hernández (R)22.1%2.0
8. Tommy Edman (R)23.8%2.0
9. Dalton Rushing (L)18.8%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Sean Manaea's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate20.9% Hits / BF

vs LHB20.3%
vs RHB22.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.7%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.9 BF

Expected batters faced21.9
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.9 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness23.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. A.J. Ewing (L)24.6%3.0
2. Francisco Lindor (L)26.3%3.0
3. Bo Bichette (R)25.6%3.0
4. Carson Benge (L)24.9%2.9
5. Jorge Polanco (L)22.5%2.0
6. Jared Young (L)21.9%2.0
7. Marcus Semien (R)22.5%2.0
8. Brett Baty (L)23.2%2.0
9. Francisco Alvarez (R)22.5%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Roki Sasaki's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate22.5% Hits / BF

vs LHB22.5%
vs RHB22.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.7 BF

Expected batters faced23.7
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.0 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness21.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Cole Young (L)19.6%3.0
2. Julio Rodríguez (R)22.5%3.0
3. Dominic Canzone (L)20.8%3.0
4. Randy Arozarena (R)22.5%3.0
5. Josh Naylor (L)22.5%3.0
6. Cal Raleigh (R)20.5%2.7
7. Luke Raley (L)22.5%2.0
8. Weston Wilson (R)22.5%2.0
9. Colt Emerson (L)17.3%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

MacKenzie Gore's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate25.3% Hits / BF

vs LHB24.6%
vs RHB25.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.4%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload20.8 BF

Expected batters faced20.8
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.1 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. James Wood (L)22.5%3.0
2. Luis García Jr. (L)22.5%3.0
3. José Tena (L)22.5%2.8
4. CJ Abrams (L)21.8%2.0
5. Dylan Crews (R)21.4%2.0
6. Daylen Lile (L)22.0%2.0
7. Keibert Ruiz (R)22.5%2.0
8. Jorbit Vivas (L)22.5%2.0
9. Nasim Nuñez (R)22.5%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Eduardo Rodriguez's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate22.9% Hits / BF

vs LHB22.2%
vs RHB23.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.7%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.4 BF

Expected batters faced22.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.2 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Jeremy Peña (R)27.1%3.0
2. Yordan Alvarez (L)28.0%3.0
3. Isaac Paredes (R)22.0%3.0
4. LaMonte Wade Jr. (L)16.1%3.0
5. Yainer Diaz (R)24.4%2.4
6. Christian Walker (R)20.9%2.0
7. Lucas Spence (L)22.5%2.0
8. Nick Allen (R)21.2%2.0
9. Christian Vázquez (R)20.7%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Davis Martin's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate21.5% Hits / BF

vs LHB23.6%
vs RHB19.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.5%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload25.4 BF

Expected batters faced25.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.2 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness21.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Zach Neto (R)22.5%3.0
2. Mike Trout (R)19.1%3.0
3. Nolan Schanuel (L)25.2%3.0
4. Vaughn Grissom (R)23.0%3.0
5. Jo Adell (R)18.9%3.0
6. Wade Meckler (L)22.5%3.0
7. Oswald Peraza (R)22.5%3.0
8. Josh Lowe (L)20.7%2.4
9. Tyler Heineman (L)19.5%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Logan Webb's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate21.9% Hits / BF

vs LHB22.1%
vs RHB21.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.8%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.5 BF

Expected batters faced23.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.3 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Yandy Díaz (R)25.6%3.0
2. Jonathan Aranda (L)21.8%3.0
3. Junior Caminero (R)25.8%3.0
4. Victor Mesa Jr. (L)23.9%3.0
5. Jonny DeLuca (R)23.2%3.0
6. Chandler Simpson (L)27.7%2.5
7. Ben Williamson (R)22.1%2.0
8. Richie Palacios (L)19.8%2.0
9. Hunter Feduccia (L)14.7%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Joey Cantillo's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate22.5% Hits / BF

vs LHB22.5%
vs RHB22.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.3 BF

Expected batters faced23.3
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.4 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness23.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Jake McCarthy (L)25.7%3.0
2. Mickey Moniak (L)22.2%3.0
3. Hunter Goodman (R)24.8%3.0
4. TJ Rumfield (L)22.4%3.0
5. Cole Carrigg (R)25.5%3.0
6. Kyle Karros (R)21.3%2.3
7. Willi Castro (R)21.4%2.0
8. Edouard Julien (L)22.5%2.0
9. Brett Sullivan (L)22.3%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Shane Drohan's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate29.8% Hits / BF

vs LHB33.9%
vs RHB24.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.9%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.2 BF

Expected batters faced22.2
From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.6 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness21.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Yohendrick Piñango (L)22.5%3.0
2. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)25.0%3.0
3. Ernie Clement (R)26.3%3.0
4. George Springer (R)20.1%3.0
5. Alejandro Kirk (R)23.4%2.2
6. Kazuma Okamoto (R)21.3%2.0
7. Davis Schneider (R)14.1%2.0
8. Luis Urías (R)20.0%2.0
9. Myles Straw (R)21.3%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Patrick Sandoval's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate27.0% Hits / BF

vs LHB27.2%
vs RHB26.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)6.6%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload20.8 BF

Expected batters faced20.8
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.8 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness23.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Otto Lopez (R)25.5%3.0
2. Kyle Stowers (L)22.0%3.0
3. Heriberto Hernández (R)22.6%2.8
4. Xavier Edwards (L)25.5%2.0
5. Liam Hicks (L)23.7%2.0
6. Griffin Conine (L)24.5%2.0
7. Javier Sanoja (R)22.6%2.0
8. Joe Mack (L)23.4%2.0
9. Esteury Ruiz (R)22.2%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Germán Márquez's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate24.9% Hits / BF

vs LHB25.6%
vs RHB24.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.1%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.3 BF

Expected batters faced23.3
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.8 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Christian Yelich (L)22.4%3.0
2. Jackson Chourio (R)22.5%3.0
3. Brice Turang (L)22.6%3.0
4. William Contreras (R)22.4%3.0
5. Garrett Mitchell (L)24.7%3.0
6. Andrew Vaughn (R)22.3%2.3
7. Jake Bauers (L)19.1%2.0
8. Cooper Pratt (R)25.0%2.0
9. Joey Ortiz (R)22.5%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Tomoyuki Sugano's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate26.6% Hits / BF

vs LHB28.2%
vs RHB23.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.3%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.5 BF

Expected batters faced21.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.0 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness23.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Luis Arraez (L)27.9%3.0
2. Bryce Eldridge (L)21.0%3.0
3. Heliot Ramos (R)22.5%3.0
4. Rafael Devers (L)22.5%2.5
5. Casey Schmitt (R)23.1%2.0
6. Jung Hoo Lee (L)25.6%2.0
7. Willy Adames (R)22.5%2.0
8. Drew Gilbert (L)22.5%2.0
9. Drew Cavanaugh (L)22.5%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Grayson Rodriguez's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate27.6% Hits / BF

vs LHB28.2%
vs RHB25.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.2%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.6 BF

Expected batters faced24.6
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection7.1 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness23.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Jacob Wilson (R)28.5%3.0
2. Tyler Soderstrom (L)24.3%3.0
3. Shea Langeliers (R)22.5%3.0
4. Carlos Cortes (L)24.0%3.0
5. Donovan Walton (L)22.4%3.0
6. Tommy White (R)22.5%3.0
7. Jeff McNeil (L)24.5%2.6
8. Lawrence Butler (L)20.8%2.0
9. Jonah Heim (L)22.5%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Zebby Matthews's full player page →

What the hits allowed board is

The Hits Allowed board projects the contact a starter is likely to surrender. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

  • His hit-suppression vs this lineup.
  • The park.
  • Projected batters faced.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Graded transparency — the market prices it well. A sharp projection, no posted edge.

How to use it

Context on a starter's contact profile; research, not a lean.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays