MatchWiz

Caleb Durbin

Caleb Durbin — today's matchup, what the model projects, and how our calls on him have graded. Top board: singles at 65/100.

Today's top board
65
Singles · vs SF
Our calls on him · hits
88%
1+ hit in 7/8 top-20 calls
Games graded
114
this season, box-score final
Caleb Durbin
3BBats RThrows RBoston Red Sox
Singles65/100proj 0.7#22H+R+RBI58.5/100proj 1.7#53Stolen Bases56.3/100proj 0.2#12Runs54.9/100proj 0.5#39RBIs51.9/100proj 0.5#50Hits49.2/100proj 1#61Fantasy Points49.1/100proj 6.8#39Total Bases44.1/100proj 1.5#70Walks39.6/100proj 0.4#64Doubles28.1/100proj 0.2#65Home Runs13.7/100proj 0.1#88Triples8.2/100proj 0#84

Today's matchup

Caleb is hosting San Francisco Giants on the Sunday, August 23, 2026 slate. He shows up on 12 boards — singles (65/100, #22), h+r+rbi (58.5/100, #53), stolen bases (56.3/100, #12), runs (54.9/100, #39). We've got him at 0.7 on the singles board. Open any board row for the full breakdown of what's driving it.

He's swinging a hot bat

Caleb is 14-for-38 (.368) over his last 10 games — well clear of his .260 season mark. Our model does lean on recent form, but it weights it against the matchup rather than chasing it: a hot bat facing a tough arm in a bad park still grades as a tough spot. Streaks like this one also end without warning, which is why the score moves on the matchup and not on the streak.

What kind of hitter he is

Caleb has 12 home runs and 33 extra-base hits in 393 at-bats this season. That profile is why he grades better on the total-bases and home-run boards than his batting average alone would suggest — those boards reward damage, not just contact. Park and weather matter more for a hitter like him too, and both feed the score.

He's a right-handed bat

Caleb hits from the right side, so the platoon math runs the other way from a lefty's. Right-handed bats face right-handed pitching most of the time, meaning his baseline is built against the harder side and a left-handed starter is the upgrade. That's why a righty's score can jump on a day nothing else about the matchup changed. The model weighs his rates against the specific handedness he's drawing rather than a blended season number, which is where a lot of the day-to-day movement in his score comes from.

Floor and ceiling

Caleb has recorded at least one hit in 66 of 111 games he's batted in — 59% — with 29 multi-hit games among them. That's a boom-or-bust profile. He'll carry a game outright and then go quiet for three, so his hits-board score tends to sit below hitters with worse power and better contact.

Home and away

Caleb is hitting .255 at home (49-for-192) and .264 on the road (53-for-201) across the season. There's not much in it, which is the normal case. Home-road splits get talked about far more than they hold up.

His best game in the log

Caleb's biggest night was Thursday, August 13, 2026 at TOR — 3-for-5 with 1 homer, 5 driven in. That's the ceiling, not the expectation. The projection you'll see on a board is closer to his typical game than his best one, which is the whole point of projecting rather than remembering.

How our calls on Caleb have graded

In the 8 games where we ranked Caleb a top-20 hitter matchup, he recorded a hit 7 times — 88%. That's a thin sample and we'd treat it as such. Every one of those calls was graded against the real box score, misses included.

Where he lands across our boards

Caleb was scored on 12 boards in that matchup, and the spread is the interesting part: singles graded 65/100 while triples came in at 8.2/100. Same player, same game, same opposing arm — different questions. A spread that wide usually means the matchup favours one kind of outcome over another, and it's the clearest argument for reading the board that matches what you actually care about.

How the model reads him

Take the name off Caleb and the model still produces the same number, because it's scoring the matchup rather than the player. His splits against this handedness, what the opposing starter and bullpen actually allow, how many plate appearances he's likely to get, the park, the weather, how he's swinging lately. All of it lands on a 0–100 scale against everyone else playing today. We don't publish how it's weighted. We publish every result it produces.

What we'd flag

Three caveats worth carrying. Not every player gets a posted line — book coverage runs to about 87% for confirmed starters, so a blank line is the market's silence, not ours. Lineup changes land late enough to strand a projection published hours earlier. And judging any of this on a single night is meaningless; the model is tuned on hundreds of settled outcomes.

Recent game log

DateOppABHHRRRBI
Saturday, August 22vs SF32010
Friday, August 21vs SF41010
Wednesday, August 19vs AZ50000
Tuesday, August 18vs AZ31011
Monday, August 17vs AZ43021
Sunday, August 16@ PIT41000
Saturday, August 15@ PIT31010
Friday, August 14@ PIT30010
Thursday, August 13@ TOR53115
Wednesday, August 12@ TOR42011
Tuesday, August 11@ TOR40000
Monday, August 10@ TOR40000

Caleb Durbin — FAQ

Who is Caleb Durbin facing today?

Caleb Durbin is hosting San Francisco Giants on Sunday, August 23, 2026. His strongest matchup grades 65/100 on our singles board, ranked #22.

What is Caleb Durbin's projection today?

We project Caleb for 0.7 on the singles board. That's the model's number for this specific matchup — the opposing arm, the park, the weather, and his expected playing time all feed it. It's graded against the real box score tonight.

How have MatchWiz's calls on Caleb Durbin graded?

In the 8 games where our model ranked Caleb a top-20 hitter matchup, he got at least one hit 7 times — 88%. Every call is graded against the real result at the line the market offered, wins and losses both.

How has Caleb Durbin been hitting lately?

Caleb is 14-for-38 (.368) over his last 10 games, against .260 on the season across 393 at-bats in our log, with 12 home runs. The full game-by-game log is on this page.

Which MatchWiz boards does Caleb Durbin appear on?

Caleb was scored on 12 boards in his last matchup — singles, h+r+rbi, stolen bases, runs, rbis. Each one asks a different question about the same game, so his score can be strong on one and weak on another.

Are Caleb Durbin's projections betting advice?

No. Every number on this page is a research signal from a statistical model, published alongside its graded record so you can judge it yourself. The model is re-tuned weekly and can be wrong on any given day. Nothing here is a guaranteed outcome. 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).

Projections are a research signal from our model, graded against real box-score results — not betting advice. 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).