MatchWiz

Caleb Durbin

Caleb Durbin — hitting .246 in our graded log with 13 home runs. The model's read on his matchups, and where it's been right.

Last scored board
38.2
Singles · @ NYY · 2026-09-30
Our calls on him · hits
88%
1+ hit in 7/8 top-20 calls
Games graded
147
this season, box-score final
Caleb Durbin
3BBats RThrows RBoston Red Sox
Singles38.2/100proj 0.6#22Stolen Bases34.1/100proj 0.1#9Hits29.1/100proj 0.9#28Walks25/100proj 0.3#27RBIs22.5/100proj 0.3#34H+R+RBI21.8/100proj 1.4#30Fantasy Points20.5/100proj 5.5#31Doubles19.2/100proj 0.1#26Runs17.8/100proj 0.4#28Total Bases14.4/100proj 1.3#33Home Runs13.4/100proj 0.1#30Triples8.6/100proj 0#23

Last scored matchup

Caleb isn't on today's slate. He was last scored 8 days ago, away at New York Yankees on Wednesday, September 30, 2026, where he landed on singles (38.2/100), stolen bases (34.1/100), hits (29.1/100). This page refreshes with new projections as soon as he's back in a lineup.

Recent form

Caleb is 7-for-35 (.200) over his last 10 games, in line with his .246 season line. No hot streak to fade, no slump to buy — the matchup is doing the work in his score, which is the normal case. The full game log is below.

What kind of hitter he is

Caleb has 13 home runs and 37 extra-base hits in 496 at-bats this season. That profile is why he grades better on the total-bases and home-run boards than his batting average alone would suggest — those boards reward damage, not just contact. Park and weather matter more for a hitter like him too, and both feed the score.

He's a right-handed bat

Caleb hits from the right side, so the platoon math runs the other way from a lefty's. Right-handed bats face right-handed pitching most of the time, meaning his baseline is built against the harder side and a left-handed starter is the upgrade. That's why a righty's score can jump on a day nothing else about the matchup changed. The model weighs his rates against the specific handedness he's drawing rather than a blended season number, which is where a lot of the day-to-day movement in his score comes from.

Floor and ceiling

Caleb has recorded at least one hit in 81 of 144 games he's batted in — 56% — with 34 multi-hit games among them. That's a boom-or-bust profile. He'll carry a game outright and then go quiet for three, so his hits-board score tends to sit below hitters with worse power and better contact.

Home and away

Caleb is hitting .242 at home (58-for-240) and .250 on the road (64-for-256) across the season. There's not much in it, which is the normal case. Home-road splits get talked about far more than they hold up.

His best game in the log

Caleb's biggest night was Sunday, September 20, 2026 at TB — 2-for-4. That's the ceiling, not the expectation. The projection you'll see on a board is closer to his typical game than his best one, which is the whole point of projecting rather than remembering.

How our calls on Caleb have graded

In the 8 games where we ranked Caleb a top-20 hitter matchup, he recorded a hit 7 times — 88%. That's a thin sample and we'd treat it as such. Every one of those calls was graded against the real box score, misses included.

Where he lands across our boards

Caleb was scored on 12 boards in that matchup, and the spread is the interesting part: singles graded 38.2/100 while triples came in at 8.6/100. Same player, same game, same opposing arm — different questions. A spread that wide usually means the matchup favours one kind of outcome over another, and it's the clearest argument for reading the board that matches what you actually care about.

How the model reads him

Take the name off Caleb and the model still produces the same number, because it's scoring the matchup rather than the player. His splits against this handedness, what the opposing starter and bullpen actually allow, how many plate appearances he's likely to get, the park, the weather, how he's swinging lately. All of it lands on a 0–100 scale against everyone else playing today. We don't publish how it's weighted. We publish every result it produces.

What we'd flag

Three caveats worth carrying. Not every player gets a posted line — book coverage runs to about 87% for confirmed starters, so a blank line is the market's silence, not ours. Lineup changes land late enough to strand a projection published hours earlier. And judging any of this on a single night is meaningless; the model is tuned on hundreds of settled outcomes.

Recent game log

DateOppABHHRRRBI
Wednesday, September 30@ NYY40000
Tuesday, September 29@ NYY30000
Sunday, September 27vs CHC41000
Friday, September 25vs CHC40000
Thursday, September 24vs CLE30000
Wednesday, September 23vs CLE40000
Tuesday, September 22vs CLE20000
Sunday, September 20@ TB42000
Saturday, September 19@ TB42010
Friday, September 18@ TB32010
Thursday, September 17@ TEX30000
Wednesday, September 16@ TEX20010

Caleb Durbin — FAQ

Is Caleb Durbin playing today?

Caleb Durbin isn't in a confirmed lineup on the current slate, and was last scored on Wednesday, September 30, 2026. This page updates with fresh projections as soon as he's back in one.

How have MatchWiz's calls on Caleb Durbin graded?

In the 8 games where our model ranked Caleb a top-20 hitter matchup, he got at least one hit 7 times — 88%. Every call is graded against the real result at the line the market offered, wins and losses both.

How has Caleb Durbin been hitting lately?

Caleb is 7-for-35 (.200) over his last 10 games, against .246 on the season across 496 at-bats in our log, with 13 home runs. The full game-by-game log is on this page.

Which MatchWiz boards does Caleb Durbin appear on?

Caleb was scored on 12 boards in his last matchup — singles, stolen bases, hits, walks, rbis. Each one asks a different question about the same game, so his score can be strong on one and weak on another.

Are Caleb Durbin's projections betting advice?

No. Every number on this page is a research signal from a statistical model, published alongside its graded record so you can judge it yourself. The model is re-tuned weekly and can be wrong on any given day. Nothing here is a guaranteed outcome. 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).

Projections are a research signal from our model, graded against real box-score results — not betting advice. 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).