Best MLB Walks Matchups — Wednesday, September 30, 2026
Top walks spot: Michael Busch
Michael Busch (CHC) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Nick Pivetta. The lefty is working counts at .134 BB/PA against righties this year — and .182 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a walk in about 11% of his trips. And Nick Pivetta has been tough to walk against righties lately — .042 walks per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 5 career PA against Nick Pivetta, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (100) vs RHP Sean Burke: an excellent bat at .137 into an arm tough to walk against the same side (.069), hot bat.
- Ben Rice (NYY) (100) vs RHP Sonny Gray: an excellent bat at .124 into an arm tough to walk against the same side (.033).
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) (86) vs RHP Nick Pivetta: a solid bat at .098 into an arm tough to walk against the same side (.042).
- Ian Happ (CHC) (86) vs RHP Nick Pivetta: a strong bat at .112 into an arm tough to walk against the same side (.042), due to bounce back.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (86) vs RHP Tyler Mahle: an excellent bat at .142 into an arm tough to walk against the same side (.053).
- Kyle Teel (CWS) (79) vs RHP Hunter Brown: a strong bat at .104 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.184).
- Alex Bregman (CHC) (75) vs RHP Nick Pivetta: a solid bat at .087 into an arm tough to walk against the same side (.063).
Platoon edges to target
- Michael Busch (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .134 against righties this year.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .185 against righties this year.
- Ben Rice (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .150 against righties this year.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .121 against righties this year.
- Ian Happ (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .146 against righties this year.
How it played out
0 of the top 10 walks matchups landed at least one walk. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these walks matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's walks per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the walks board is
The Walks board projects the chance a hitter draws a walk. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His plate discipline.
- The pitcher's control.
- The count leverage in the matchup.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
An over-only market with heavy juice; our overs grade anti-predictive and lose to the vig. No edge — transparency board.
How to use it
Spot the patient-hitter-vs-wild-arm setups; not a bettable edge.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays