Best MLB Runs Matchups — Wednesday, September 30, 2026
Top runs spot: Pete Crow-Armstrong
Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Nick Pivetta. The lefty is scoring at .177 R/PA against righties this year — and .176 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a run in about 16% of his trips. And Nick Pivetta has been stingy with runs against righties lately — .000 runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's a fine .250 in 4 career PA against Nick Pivetta. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Jeremy Peña (HOU) (100) vs RHP Sean Burke: an excellent bat at .164 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.000).
- Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) (100) vs RHP Kevin Gausman: a solid bat at .124 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.105).
- Ben Rice (NYY) (86) vs RHP Sonny Gray: an excellent bat at .150 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.033).
- Sam Antonacci (CWS) (85) vs RHP Hunter Brown: a strong bat at .144 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.026), hot bat.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (85) vs RHP Sean Burke: an excellent bat at .150 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.069), hot bat.
- Dustin Harris (SD) (83) vs RHP Kevin Gausman: a strong bat at .138 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.080).
- Manny Machado (SD) (83) vs RHP Kevin Gausman: a solid bat at .120 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.105).
Platoon edges to target
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .177 against righties this year.
- Ben Rice (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .166 against righties this year.
- Sam Antonacci (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .156 against righties this year.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .165 against righties this year.
- Dustin Harris (SD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .171 against righties this year.
How it played out
4 of the top 10 runs matchups landed at least one run. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the runs board is
The Runs board projects the chance a hitter scores a run. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His on-base ability at the top of the order.
- The bats due up behind him.
- The opposing run-prevention.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Like RBIs, runs is a lumpy market that grades efficient once you model the clustering honestly. Transparency board — the WizLine set beside the line, graded.
How to use it
Useful context for top-of-the-order run creation, not a lean.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
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