Best MLB RBIs Matchups — Wednesday, September 30, 2026
Top rbis spot: Fernando Tatis Jr.
Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Kevin Gausman. The righty is driving in runs at .118 RBI/PA against righties this year — and .091 over the last two weeks, a solid bat that turns into a RBI in about 11% of his trips. And Kevin Gausman has been mostly holding up against righties lately — .105 RBIs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Kevin Gausman too — .333 across 24 career trips. It all sets up in a park that leans hitter, though the weather fights it.
The rest of the top of the board
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (100) vs RHP Sean Burke: an excellent bat at .150 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.069), hot bat.
- Manny Machado (SD) (96) vs RHP Kevin Gausman: a strong bat at .140 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.105), hitter's park.
- Alex Bregman (CHC) (79) vs RHP Nick Pivetta: an excellent bat at .142 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.063), hitter's park.
- Ty France (SD) (76) vs RHP Kevin Gausman: a strong bat at .127 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.105), hitter's park.
- Ben Rice (NYY) (74) vs RHP Sonny Gray: a strong bat at .127 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.033).
- Jackson Merrill (SD) (71) vs RHP Kevin Gausman: a strong bat at .130 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.080), hitter's park.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (69) vs RHP Tyler Mahle: an excellent bat at .158 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.105).
Platoon edges to target
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .158 against righties this year.
- Ben Rice (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .148 against righties this year.
- Jackson Merrill (SD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .125 against righties this year.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .142 against righties this year.
- Willson Contreras (BOS) — righty bat vs LHP, .158 against lefties this year.
Best parks to drive in runs today
Petco Park is playing as hitter-friendly today (+3% run-scoring park). Top bat there: Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) at 100.
How it played out
1 of the top 10 rbis matchups landed at least one RBI. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these rbis matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's RBIs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the RBIs board is
The RBIs board projects the chance a hitter drives in a run, given his slot and the bats around him. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His run-driving rate.
- How often the hitters ahead of him are on base.
- The arm he faces and the park.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
RBIs is lumpy — runs cluster — and once you price the 1+ line with a clustering-aware model instead of a naive one, the apparent edge vanishes. It grades efficient. So this is a transparency board.
How to use it
Good for spotting the cleanup-spot smash setups; not a market we've found a bettable edge in.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays