MatchWiz

Ceddanne Rafaela

Ceddanne Rafaela — today's matchup, what the model projects, and how our calls on him have graded. Top board: h+r+rbi at 82.6/100.

Today's top board
82.6
H+R+RBI · vs SF
Our calls on him · hits
70%
1+ hit in 30/43 top-20 calls
Games graded
125
this season, box-score final
Ceddanne Rafaela
CFBats RThrows RBoston Red Sox
H+R+RBI82.6/100proj 1.9#20RBIs78.3/100proj 0.5#14Runs71.5/100proj 0.6#14Hits67.3/100proj 1.1#28Singles65.2/100proj 0.7#20Total Bases63.9/100proj 1.7#33Fantasy Points53.3/100proj 7#33Doubles47.3/100proj 0.2#19Triples46.5/100proj 0#7Walks39.1/100proj 0.4#67Home Runs22.2/100proj 0.1#56Stolen Bases21.5/100proj 0.1#62

Today's matchup

Ceddanne draws San Francisco Giants at home today. He shows up on 12 boards — h+r+rbi (82.6/100, #20), rbis (78.3/100, #14), runs (71.5/100, #14), hits (67.3/100, #28). We've got him at 1.9 on the h+r+rbi board. That's one of the stronger spots on the board today. Open any board row for the full breakdown of what's driving it.

Recent form

Ceddanne is 12-for-44 (.273) over his last 10 games, in line with his .285 season line. No hot streak to fade, no slump to buy — the matchup is doing the work in his score, which is the normal case. The full game log is below.

What kind of hitter he is

Ceddanne has 16 home runs and 51 extra-base hits in 492 at-bats this season. That profile is why he grades better on the total-bases and home-run boards than his batting average alone would suggest — those boards reward damage, not just contact. Park and weather matter more for a hitter like him too, and both feed the score.

He's a right-handed bat

Ceddanne hits from the right side, so the platoon math runs the other way from a lefty's. Right-handed bats face right-handed pitching most of the time, meaning his baseline is built against the harder side and a left-handed starter is the upgrade. That's why a righty's score can jump on a day nothing else about the matchup changed. The model weighs his rates against the specific handedness he's drawing rather than a blended season number, which is where a lot of the day-to-day movement in his score comes from.

Floor and ceiling

Ceddanne has recorded at least one hit in 93 of 123 games he's batted in — 76% — with 38 multi-hit games among them. A floor that steady is worth more than it looks on the hits board, where the question is simply whether he gets one.

Home and away

Ceddanne is hitting .280 at home (72-for-257) and .289 on the road (68-for-235) across the season. There's not much in it, which is the normal case. Home-road splits get talked about far more than they hold up.

His best game in the log

Ceddanne's biggest night was Monday, August 17, 2026 against AZ — 3-for-5 with 1 driven in. That's the ceiling, not the expectation. The projection you'll see on a board is closer to his typical game than his best one, which is the whole point of projecting rather than remembering.

How our calls on Ceddanne have graded

We've ranked Ceddanne a top-20 hitter matchup 43 times this season. He got a hit in 30 of them — 70%. That's the model reading him well, and it's the number we'd point to if you asked why we keep ranking him. It's also a season-sized sample on one player, which is smaller than it sounds; don't extrapolate it into a promise about tonight.

Where he lands across our boards

Ceddanne was scored on 12 boards in that matchup, and the spread is the interesting part: h+r+rbi graded 82.6/100 while stolen bases came in at 21.5/100. Same player, same game, same opposing arm — different questions. A spread that wide usually means the matchup favours one kind of outcome over another, and it's the clearest argument for reading the board that matches what you actually care about.

How the model reads him

Ceddanne gets scored the same way a backup infielder does — same inputs, same scale, no thumb on it. What he's done against arms of this handedness, what this particular pitcher and bullpen give up, his likely plate appearances, the ballpark, the conditions, his recent form. The weighting behind those is ours and gets re-tuned weekly against what actually happened. The output is public and graded, which is the only claim worth making.

What we'd flag

Read this page knowing what it can't do. It can't show you a line no book posted — coverage peaks around 87% for confirmed starters. It can't see a lineup change that happens after the projection publishes. And it can't tell you anything useful from one game, because the model is only measurable across a season-sized sample.

Recent game log

DateOppABHHRRRBI
Saturday, August 22vs SF31000
Friday, August 21vs SF52000
Wednesday, August 19vs AZ50010
Tuesday, August 18vs AZ51010
Monday, August 17vs AZ53021
Sunday, August 16@ PIT40000
Saturday, August 15@ PIT51000
Thursday, August 13@ TOR42020
Wednesday, August 12@ TOR41000
Tuesday, August 11@ TOR41112
Monday, August 10@ TOR32001
Sunday, August 9vs ATH50000

Ceddanne Rafaela — FAQ

Who is Ceddanne Rafaela facing today?

Ceddanne Rafaela is hosting San Francisco Giants on Sunday, August 23, 2026. His strongest matchup grades 82.6/100 on our h+r+rbi board, ranked #20.

What is Ceddanne Rafaela's projection today?

We project Ceddanne for 1.9 on the h+r+rbi board. That's the model's number for this specific matchup — the opposing arm, the park, the weather, and his expected playing time all feed it. It's graded against the real box score tonight.

How have MatchWiz's calls on Ceddanne Rafaela graded?

In the 43 games where our model ranked Ceddanne a top-20 hitter matchup, he got at least one hit 30 times — 70%. Every call is graded against the real result at the line the market offered, wins and losses both.

How has Ceddanne Rafaela been hitting lately?

Ceddanne is 12-for-44 (.273) over his last 10 games, against .285 on the season across 492 at-bats in our log, with 16 home runs. The full game-by-game log is on this page.

Which MatchWiz boards does Ceddanne Rafaela appear on?

Ceddanne was scored on 12 boards in his last matchup — h+r+rbi, rbis, runs, hits, singles. Each one asks a different question about the same game, so his score can be strong on one and weak on another.

Are Ceddanne Rafaela's projections betting advice?

No. Every number on this page is a research signal from a statistical model, published alongside its graded record so you can judge it yourself. The model is re-tuned weekly and can be wrong on any given day. Nothing here is a guaranteed outcome. 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).

Projections are a research signal from our model, graded against real box-score results — not betting advice. 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).