MatchWiz

Ceddanne Rafaela

Ceddanne Rafaela — our top-20 calls on him have hit 65% this season. His matchups, projections, and the full graded record.

Last scored board
54.8
Singles · @ NYY · 2026-09-30
Our calls on him · hits
65%
1+ hit in 31/48 top-20 calls
Games graded
141
this season, box-score final
Ceddanne Rafaela
CFBats RThrows RBoston Red Sox
Singles54.8/100proj 0.7#9Hits51/100proj 1#20Doubles49.7/100proj 0.2#13H+R+RBI44.7/100proj 1.6#17RBIs43.5/100proj 0.4#21Runs41.6/100proj 0.5#20Triples36.1/100proj 0#8Total Bases35.8/100proj 1.4#19Fantasy Points32.3/100proj 5.9#25Home Runs25.8/100proj 0.1#22Walks20.3/100proj 0.3#30Stolen Bases9.3/100proj 0#26

Last scored matchup

Ceddanne isn't on today's slate. He was last scored 8 days ago, away at New York Yankees on Wednesday, September 30, 2026, where he landed on singles (54.8/100), hits (51/100), doubles (49.7/100). This page refreshes with new projections as soon as he's back in a lineup.

He's in a cold stretch

Ceddanne is 5-for-31 (.161) across his last 10 games, down from .278 on the season. Slumps this size are mostly noise at this sample — 31 at-bats is a fortnight, not a trend — and the model treats it that way, discounting the cold run rather than writing him off. If the matchup underneath is good, he'll still grade well here. That's a feature, and sometimes it's wrong.

What kind of hitter he is

Ceddanne has 16 home runs and 51 extra-base hits in 550 at-bats this season. That profile is why he grades better on the total-bases and home-run boards than his batting average alone would suggest — those boards reward damage, not just contact. Park and weather matter more for a hitter like him too, and both feed the score.

He's a right-handed bat

Ceddanne hits from the right side, so the platoon math runs the other way from a lefty's. Right-handed bats face right-handed pitching most of the time, meaning his baseline is built against the harder side and a left-handed starter is the upgrade. That's why a righty's score can jump on a day nothing else about the matchup changed. The model weighs his rates against the specific handedness he's drawing rather than a blended season number, which is where a lot of the day-to-day movement in his score comes from.

Floor and ceiling

Ceddanne has recorded at least one hit in 102 of 139 games he's batted in — 73% — with 41 multi-hit games among them. That's about average — most regulars land somewhere near it.

Home and away

Ceddanne is hitting .289 at home (80-for-277) and .267 on the road (73-for-273) across the season. There's not much in it, which is the normal case. Home-road splits get talked about far more than they hold up.

Against New York Yankees

Ceddanne is 3-for-24 (.125) against New York Yankees in our log, over 6 games. Worth knowing, worth not over-reading. 24 at-bats against one club is a tiny sample, and the model treats it as a minor input next to what that pitching staff actually allows to his handedness. Batter-versus-pitcher history is the most quoted number in baseball and one of the least predictive.

His best game in the log

Ceddanne's biggest night was Monday, August 31, 2026 against SEA — 2-for-4 with 3 driven in. That's the ceiling, not the expectation. The projection you'll see on a board is closer to his typical game than his best one, which is the whole point of projecting rather than remembering.

How our calls on Ceddanne have graded

We've ranked Ceddanne a top-20 hitter matchup 48 times this season. He got a hit in 31 of them — 65%. That's the model reading him well, and it's the number we'd point to if you asked why we keep ranking him. It's also a season-sized sample on one player, which is smaller than it sounds; don't extrapolate it into a promise about tonight.

Where he lands across our boards

Ceddanne was scored on 12 boards in that matchup, and the spread is the interesting part: singles graded 54.8/100 while stolen bases came in at 9.3/100. Same player, same game, same opposing arm — different questions. A spread that wide usually means the matchup favours one kind of outcome over another, and it's the clearest argument for reading the board that matches what you actually care about.

How the model reads him

Ceddanne gets scored the same way a backup infielder does — same inputs, same scale, no thumb on it. What he's done against arms of this handedness, what this particular pitcher and bullpen give up, his likely plate appearances, the ballpark, the conditions, his recent form. The weighting behind those is ours and gets re-tuned weekly against what actually happened. The output is public and graded, which is the only claim worth making.

What we'd flag

Read this page knowing what it can't do. It can't show you a line no book posted — coverage peaks around 87% for confirmed starters. It can't see a lineup change that happens after the projection publishes. And it can't tell you anything useful from one game, because the model is only measurable across a season-sized sample.

Recent game log

DateOppABHHRRRBI
Wednesday, September 30@ NYY40000
Tuesday, September 29@ NYY30000
Sunday, September 27vs CHC21000
Thursday, September 24vs CLE30000
Wednesday, September 23vs CLE11000
Wednesday, September 2vs SEA31000
Tuesday, September 1vs SEA30000
Monday, August 31vs SEA42003
Sunday, August 30@ NYY40000
Saturday, August 29@ NYY40000
Saturday, August 29@ NYY51001
Friday, August 28@ NYY42000

Ceddanne Rafaela — FAQ

Is Ceddanne Rafaela playing today?

Ceddanne Rafaela isn't in a confirmed lineup on the current slate, and was last scored on Wednesday, September 30, 2026. This page updates with fresh projections as soon as he's back in one.

How have MatchWiz's calls on Ceddanne Rafaela graded?

In the 48 games where our model ranked Ceddanne a top-20 hitter matchup, he got at least one hit 31 times — 65%. Every call is graded against the real result at the line the market offered, wins and losses both.

How has Ceddanne Rafaela been hitting lately?

Ceddanne is 5-for-31 (.161) over his last 10 games, against .278 on the season across 550 at-bats in our log, with 16 home runs. The full game-by-game log is on this page.

Which MatchWiz boards does Ceddanne Rafaela appear on?

Ceddanne was scored on 12 boards in his last matchup — singles, hits, doubles, h+r+rbi, rbis. Each one asks a different question about the same game, so his score can be strong on one and weak on another.

Are Ceddanne Rafaela's projections betting advice?

No. Every number on this page is a research signal from a statistical model, published alongside its graded record so you can judge it yourself. The model is re-tuned weekly and can be wrong on any given day. Nothing here is a guaranteed outcome. 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).

Projections are a research signal from our model, graded against real box-score results — not betting advice. 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).