MatchWiz

Freddy Fermin

Freddy Fermin — hitting .206 in our graded log with 4 home runs. The model's read on his matchups, and where it's been right.

Last scored board
47
Doubles · vs CHC · 2026-09-30
Our calls on him · hits
100%
record builds as games settle
Games graded
90
this season, box-score final
Freddy Fermin
CBats RThrows RSan Diego Padres
Doubles47/100proj 0.2Singles29.6/100proj 0.6Hits28.9/100proj 0.9Total Bases24.6/100proj 1.4Runs23.8/100proj 0.5H+R+RBI19.9/100proj 1.5RBIs18.6/100proj 0.4Walks16.4/100proj 0.3Fantasy Points9.3/100proj 5.6Triples5.7/100proj 0Stolen Bases4.4/100proj 0Home Runs3.4/100proj 0.1

Last scored matchup

Freddy isn't on today's slate. He was last scored 7 days ago, at home against Chicago Cubs on Wednesday, September 30, 2026, where he landed on doubles (47/100), singles (29.6/100), hits (28.9/100). This page refreshes with new projections as soon as he's back in a lineup.

He's a right-handed bat

Freddy hits from the right side, so the platoon math runs the other way from a lefty's. Right-handed bats face right-handed pitching most of the time, meaning his baseline is built against the harder side and a left-handed starter is the upgrade. That's why a righty's score can jump on a day nothing else about the matchup changed. The model weighs his rates against the specific handedness he's drawing rather than a blended season number, which is where a lot of the day-to-day movement in his score comes from.

Floor and ceiling

Freddy has recorded at least one hit in 35 of 71 games he's batted in — 49% — with 10 multi-hit games among them. That's a boom-or-bust profile. He'll carry a game outright and then go quiet for three, so his hits-board score tends to sit below hitters with worse power and better contact.

Home and away

Freddy is hitting .218 at home (22-for-101) and .197 on the road (23-for-117) across the season. There's not much in it, which is the normal case. Home-road splits get talked about far more than they hold up.

His best game in the log

Freddy's biggest night was Sunday, September 27, 2026 against AZ — 2-for-4 with 3 driven in. That's the ceiling, not the expectation. The projection you'll see on a board is closer to his typical game than his best one, which is the whole point of projecting rather than remembering.

No graded record on him yet

We haven't ranked Freddy a top-20 hitter matchup often enough this season to have a record worth publishing — 4 times so far. He's appeared in 90 graded games, so the log below is real; there just isn't a track record on our calls to show. It'll build here if the matchups start landing his way.

Where he lands across our boards

Freddy was scored on 12 boards in that matchup, and the spread is the interesting part: doubles graded 47/100 while home runs came in at 3.4/100. Same player, same game, same opposing arm — different questions. A spread that wide usually means the matchup favours one kind of outcome over another, and it's the clearest argument for reading the board that matches what you actually care about.

How the model reads him

Take the name off Freddy and the model still produces the same number, because it's scoring the matchup rather than the player. His splits against this handedness, what the opposing starter and bullpen actually allow, how many plate appearances he's likely to get, the park, the weather, how he's swinging lately. All of it lands on a 0–100 scale against everyone else playing today. We don't publish how it's weighted. We publish every result it produces.

What we'd flag

Three caveats worth carrying. Not every player gets a posted line — book coverage runs to about 87% for confirmed starters, so a blank line is the market's silence, not ours. Lineup changes land late enough to strand a projection published hours earlier. And judging any of this on a single night is meaningless; the model is tuned on hundreds of settled outcomes. For Freddy specifically, we don't have a meaningful graded record on him yet.

Recent game log

DateOppABHHRRRBI
Sunday, October 4@ —10000
Saturday, October 3@ —00000
Wednesday, September 30vs CHC00000
Sunday, September 27vs AZ42003
Saturday, September 19vs MIA40000
Thursday, September 17@ —00000
Monday, September 14@ COL31001
Sunday, September 13@ —20000
Saturday, September 12@ —00000
Friday, September 11@ SF42002
Tuesday, September 8vs WSH10010
Monday, September 7@ —00000

Freddy Fermin — FAQ

Is Freddy Fermin playing today?

Freddy Fermin isn't in a confirmed lineup on the current slate, and was last scored on Wednesday, September 30, 2026. This page updates with fresh projections as soon as he's back in one.

How has Freddy Fermin been hitting lately?

Freddy is 5-for-18 (.278) over his last 10 games, against .206 on the season across 218 at-bats in our log, with 4 home runs. The full game-by-game log is on this page.

Which MatchWiz boards does Freddy Fermin appear on?

Freddy was scored on 12 boards in his last matchup — doubles, singles, hits, total bases, runs. Each one asks a different question about the same game, so his score can be strong on one and weak on another.

Are Freddy Fermin's projections betting advice?

No. Every number on this page is a research signal from a statistical model, published alongside its graded record so you can judge it yourself. The model is re-tuned weekly and can be wrong on any given day. Nothing here is a guaranteed outcome. 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).

Projections are a research signal from our model, graded against real box-score results — not betting advice. 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).