MatchWiz

Freddy Fermin

Freddy Fermin — today's matchup, what the model projects, and how our calls on him have graded. Top board: singles at 45.6/100.

Today's top board
45.6
Singles · vs MIN
Our calls on him · hits
100%
record builds as games settle
Games graded
72
this season, box-score final
Freddy Fermin
CBats RThrows RSan Diego Padres
Singles45.6/100proj 0.6Runs37.3/100proj 0.5Total Bases28/100proj 1.4Doubles24.8/100proj 0.2Hits22.3/100proj 0.9H+R+RBI17.2/100proj 1.5Fantasy Points11.6/100proj 5.4Walks10.5/100proj 0.3Stolen Bases6.7/100proj 0Triples4.2/100proj 0RBIs3.7/100proj 0.4Home Runs1.2/100proj 0

Today's matchup

Freddy is hosting Minnesota Twins on the Sunday, August 23, 2026 slate. He shows up on 12 boards — singles (45.6/100), runs (37.3/100), total bases (28/100), doubles (24.8/100). We've got him at 0.6 on the singles board. Open any board row for the full breakdown of what's driving it.

Recent form

Freddy is 7-for-30 (.233) over his last 10 games, in line with his .202 season line. No hot streak to fade, no slump to buy — the matchup is doing the work in his score, which is the normal case. The full game log is below.

He's a right-handed bat

Freddy hits from the right side, so the platoon math runs the other way from a lefty's. Right-handed bats face right-handed pitching most of the time, meaning his baseline is built against the harder side and a left-handed starter is the upgrade. That's why a righty's score can jump on a day nothing else about the matchup changed. The model weighs his rates against the specific handedness he's drawing rather than a blended season number, which is where a lot of the day-to-day movement in his score comes from.

Floor and ceiling

Freddy has recorded at least one hit in 30 of 58 games he's batted in — 52% — with 7 multi-hit games among them. That's a boom-or-bust profile. He'll carry a game outright and then go quiet for three, so his hits-board score tends to sit below hitters with worse power and better contact.

Home and away

Freddy is hitting .198 at home (17-for-86) and .206 on the road (20-for-97) across the season. There's not much in it, which is the normal case. Home-road splits get talked about far more than they hold up.

His best game in the log

Freddy's biggest night was Saturday, August 1, 2026 against SF — 2-for-3 with 1 homer, 3 driven in. That's the ceiling, not the expectation. The projection you'll see on a board is closer to his typical game than his best one, which is the whole point of projecting rather than remembering.

No graded record on him yet

We haven't ranked Freddy a top-20 hitter matchup often enough this season to have a record worth publishing — 3 times so far. He's appeared in 72 graded games, so the log below is real; there just isn't a track record on our calls to show. It'll build here if the matchups start landing his way.

Where he lands across our boards

Freddy was scored on 12 boards in that matchup, and the spread is the interesting part: singles graded 45.6/100 while home runs came in at 1.2/100. Same player, same game, same opposing arm — different questions. A spread that wide usually means the matchup favours one kind of outcome over another, and it's the clearest argument for reading the board that matches what you actually care about.

How the model reads him

Take the name off Freddy and the model still produces the same number, because it's scoring the matchup rather than the player. His splits against this handedness, what the opposing starter and bullpen actually allow, how many plate appearances he's likely to get, the park, the weather, how he's swinging lately. All of it lands on a 0–100 scale against everyone else playing today. We don't publish how it's weighted. We publish every result it produces.

What we'd flag

Three caveats worth carrying. Not every player gets a posted line — book coverage runs to about 87% for confirmed starters, so a blank line is the market's silence, not ours. Lineup changes land late enough to strand a projection published hours earlier. And judging any of this on a single night is meaningless; the model is tuned on hundreds of settled outcomes. For Freddy specifically, we don't have a meaningful graded record on him yet.

Recent game log

DateOppABHHRRRBI
Saturday, August 22vs MIN31010
Friday, August 21vs MIN30000
Tuesday, August 18@ NYM41000
Sunday, August 16@ CLE41000
Saturday, August 15@ CLE30000
Friday, August 14@ CLE00000
Wednesday, August 12vs MIL20000
Monday, August 10vs MIL31000
Sunday, August 9vs HOU42010
Thursday, August 6@ AZ41001
Tuesday, August 4@ AZ52001
Saturday, August 1vs SF32113

Freddy Fermin — FAQ

Who is Freddy Fermin facing today?

Freddy Fermin is hosting Minnesota Twins on Sunday, August 23, 2026. His strongest matchup grades 45.6/100 on our singles board.

What is Freddy Fermin's projection today?

We project Freddy for 0.6 on the singles board. That's the model's number for this specific matchup — the opposing arm, the park, the weather, and his expected playing time all feed it. It's graded against the real box score tonight.

How has Freddy Fermin been hitting lately?

Freddy is 7-for-30 (.233) over his last 10 games, against .202 on the season across 183 at-bats in our log, with 4 home runs. The full game-by-game log is on this page.

Which MatchWiz boards does Freddy Fermin appear on?

Freddy was scored on 12 boards in his last matchup — singles, runs, total bases, doubles, hits. Each one asks a different question about the same game, so his score can be strong on one and weak on another.

Are Freddy Fermin's projections betting advice?

No. Every number on this page is a research signal from a statistical model, published alongside its graded record so you can judge it yourself. The model is re-tuned weekly and can be wrong on any given day. Nothing here is a guaranteed outcome. 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).

Projections are a research signal from our model, graded against real box-score results — not betting advice. 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).