MatchWiz

Trevor Story

Trevor Story — today's matchup, what the model projects, and how our calls on him have graded. Top board: stolen bases at 33.4/100.

Today's top board
33.4
Stolen Bases · @ NYY
Our calls on him · hits
record builds as games settle
Games graded
39
this season, box-score final
Trevor Story
SSBats RThrows RBoston Red Sox
Stolen Bases33.4/100proj 0.1#42RBIs32.3/100proj 0.4#145Hits26.4/100proj 0.9#171Doubles25.8/100proj 0.2#200Fantasy Points24.3/100proj 6#169Total Bases23.8/100proj 1.4#211Home Runs22.8/100proj 0.1#127H+R+RBI22.7/100proj 1.5#180Singles20.6/100proj 0.5#205Runs14.7/100proj 0.4#213Walks9.2/100proj 0.3#229Triples7/100proj 0#196

Today's matchup

Trevor draws New York Yankees on the road today. He shows up on 12 boards — stolen bases (33.4/100, #42), rbis (32.3/100, #145), hits (26.4/100, #171), doubles (25.8/100, #200). We've got him at 0.1 on the stolen bases board. The model doesn't love the spot — the numbers are below. Open any board row for the full breakdown of what's driving it.

Recent form

Trevor is 8-for-39 (.205) over his last 10 games, in line with his .205 season line. No hot streak to fade, no slump to buy — the matchup is doing the work in his score, which is the normal case. The full game log is below.

What kind of hitter he is

Trevor strikes out a lot — 54 strikeouts in 156 at-bats, roughly 35%. That cuts both ways in our numbers. It drags his floor on the hits board, since he needs contact to get there. But it barely dents the power boards, where one swing settles it — he's got 3 homers. Against a high-strikeout arm his score will fall further than a contact hitter's would.

He's a right-handed bat

Trevor hits from the right side, so the platoon math runs the other way from a lefty's. Right-handed bats face right-handed pitching most of the time, meaning his baseline is built against the harder side and a left-handed starter is the upgrade. That's why a righty's score can jump on a day nothing else about the matchup changed. The model weighs his rates against the specific handedness he's drawing rather than a blended season number, which is where a lot of the day-to-day movement in his score comes from.

Floor and ceiling

Trevor has recorded at least one hit in 25 of 39 games he's batted in — 64% — with 5 multi-hit games among them. That's about average — most regulars land somewhere near it.

Home and away

Trevor is hitting .190 at home (15-for-79) and .221 on the road (17-for-77) across the season. There's not much in it, which is the normal case. Home-road splits get talked about far more than they hold up.

His best game in the log

Trevor's biggest night was Wednesday, May 13, 2026 against PHI — 2-for-3 with 1 homer, 1 driven in. That's the ceiling, not the expectation. The projection you'll see on a board is closer to his typical game than his best one, which is the whole point of projecting rather than remembering.

No graded record on him yet

We haven't ranked Trevor a top-20 hitter matchup often enough this season to have a record worth publishing — not once so far. He's appeared in 39 graded games, so the log below is real; there just isn't a track record on our calls to show. It'll build here if the matchups start landing his way.

Where he lands across our boards

Trevor was scored on 12 boards in that matchup, and the spread is the interesting part: stolen bases graded 33.4/100 while triples came in at 7/100. Same player, same game, same opposing arm — different questions. A spread that wide usually means the matchup favours one kind of outcome over another, and it's the clearest argument for reading the board that matches what you actually care about.

How the model reads him

Trevor gets scored the same way a backup infielder does — same inputs, same scale, no thumb on it. What he's done against arms of this handedness, what this particular pitcher and bullpen give up, his likely plate appearances, the ballpark, the conditions, his recent form. The weighting behind those is ours and gets re-tuned weekly against what actually happened. The output is public and graded, which is the only claim worth making.

What we'd flag

Read this page knowing what it can't do. It can't show you a line no book posted — coverage peaks around 87% for confirmed starters. It can't see a lineup change that happens after the projection publishes. And it can't tell you anything useful from one game, because the model is only measurable across a season-sized sample. For Trevor specifically, we don't have a meaningful graded record on him yet.

Recent game log

DateOppABHHRRRBI
Thursday, May 14vs PHI40000
Wednesday, May 13vs PHI32111
Tuesday, May 12vs PHI31000
Sunday, May 10vs TB41010
Friday, May 8vs TB40000
Thursday, May 7vs TB41010
Wednesday, May 6@ DET40000
Tuesday, May 5@ DET41020
Monday, May 4@ DET51000
Saturday, May 2vs HOU41001
Friday, May 1vs HOU42000
Wednesday, April 29@ TOR31000

Trevor Story — FAQ

Who is Trevor Story facing today?

Trevor Story is facing New York Yankees on Sunday, August 30, 2026. His strongest matchup grades 33.4/100 on our stolen bases board, ranked #42.

What is Trevor Story's projection today?

We project Trevor for 0.1 on the stolen bases board. That's the model's number for this specific matchup — the opposing arm, the park, the weather, and his expected playing time all feed it. It's graded against the real box score tonight.

How has Trevor Story been hitting lately?

Trevor is 8-for-39 (.205) over his last 10 games, against .205 on the season across 156 at-bats in our log, with 3 home runs. The full game-by-game log is on this page.

Which MatchWiz boards does Trevor Story appear on?

Trevor was scored on 12 boards in his last matchup — stolen bases, rbis, hits, doubles, fantasy points. Each one asks a different question about the same game, so his score can be strong on one and weak on another.

Are Trevor Story's projections betting advice?

No. Every number on this page is a research signal from a statistical model, published alongside its graded record so you can judge it yourself. The model is re-tuned weekly and can be wrong on any given day. Nothing here is a guaranteed outcome. 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).

Projections are a research signal from our model, graded against real box-score results — not betting advice. 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).