Today's matchup
Willi is hosting Cleveland Guardians on the Sunday, August 23, 2026 slate. He shows up on 12 boards — hits (73.8/100, #16), singles (64.8/100, #23), h+r+rbi (64.6/100, #41), total bases (57.9/100, #45). We've got him at 1.1 on the hits board. Open any board row for the full breakdown of what's driving it.
Recent form
Willi is 9-for-34 (.265) over his last 10 games, in line with his .260 season line. No hot streak to fade, no slump to buy — the matchup is doing the work in his score, which is the normal case. The full game log is below.
What kind of hitter he is
Willi has 14 home runs and 31 extra-base hits in 384 at-bats this season. That profile is why he grades better on the total-bases and home-run boards than his batting average alone would suggest — those boards reward damage, not just contact. Park and weather matter more for a hitter like him too, and both feed the score.
He bats from both sides
Willi is a switch-hitter, which changes how the model reads every one of his matchups. Most hitters carry a real platoon penalty — a lefty bat facing a good lefty arm is a materially worse spot, and the score drops accordingly. Willi takes the favourable side almost every night, so he doesn't collect that penalty. What moves his number instead is the quality of the arm rather than its handedness, and how the two sides of his own swing actually compare, which is rarely as balanced as the switch-hitter label suggests.
Floor and ceiling
Willi has recorded at least one hit in 70 of 106 games he's batted in — 66% — with 25 multi-hit games among them. That's about average — most regulars land somewhere near it.
Home and away
Willi is hitting .313 at home (61-for-195) and .206 on the road (39-for-189) across the season. That's a real-looking split, and it's the kind of thing that's usually part park and part noise. The model doesn't apply a blanket home-road adjustment — it prices the actual ballpark he's standing in, which is the part that carries signal.
His best game in the log
Willi's biggest night was Tuesday, August 18, 2026 against LAD — 2-for-3 with 1 homer, 2 driven in. That's the ceiling, not the expectation. The projection you'll see on a board is closer to his typical game than his best one, which is the whole point of projecting rather than remembering.
How our calls on Willi have graded
We've ranked Willi a top-20 hitter matchup 21 times this season. He got a hit in 15 of them — 71%. That's the model reading him well, and it's the number we'd point to if you asked why we keep ranking him. It's also a season-sized sample on one player, which is smaller than it sounds; don't extrapolate it into a promise about tonight.
Where he lands across our boards
Willi was scored on 12 boards in that matchup, and the spread is the interesting part: hits graded 73.8/100 while home runs came in at 13.6/100. Same player, same game, same opposing arm — different questions. A spread that wide usually means the matchup favours one kind of outcome over another, and it's the clearest argument for reading the board that matches what you actually care about.
How the model reads him
Take the name off Willi and the model still produces the same number, because it's scoring the matchup rather than the player. His splits against this handedness, what the opposing starter and bullpen actually allow, how many plate appearances he's likely to get, the park, the weather, how he's swinging lately. All of it lands on a 0–100 scale against everyone else playing today. We don't publish how it's weighted. We publish every result it produces.
What we'd flag
Three caveats worth carrying. Not every player gets a posted line — book coverage runs to about 87% for confirmed starters, so a blank line is the market's silence, not ours. Lineup changes land late enough to strand a projection published hours earlier. And judging any of this on a single night is meaningless; the model is tuned on hundreds of settled outcomes.