MatchWiz

Willi Castro

Willi Castro — our top-20 calls on him have hit 74% this season. His matchups, projections, and the full graded record.

Last scored board
71.9
Total Bases · vs BAL · 2026-09-01
Our calls on him · hits
74%
1+ hit in 17/23 top-20 calls
Games graded
116
this season, box-score final
Willi Castro
2BBats SThrows RColorado Rockies
Total Bases71.9/100proj 1.7Singles69.6/100proj 0.7Hits56.3/100proj 1.1Runs54.7/100proj 0.5Walks53.9/100proj 0.4Fantasy Points52.5/100proj 6.9H+R+RBI49.6/100proj 1.8Doubles33.6/100proj 0.2RBIs27.5/100proj 0.4Home Runs25/100proj 0.1Triples20.3/100proj 0Stolen Bases18.2/100proj 0.1

Not on the current slate

Willi hasn't been scored in 37 days — his last matchup was against Baltimore Orioles on Tuesday, September 1, 2026. A gap that long usually means an injury, a minor-league option, or a roster move rather than a rest day. Everything below is his most recent real production, not a projection.

Recent form

Willi is 8-for-37 (.216) over his last 10 games, in line with his .257 season line. No hot streak to fade, no slump to buy — the matchup is doing the work in his score, which is the normal case. The full game log is below.

What kind of hitter he is

Willi has 15 home runs and 34 extra-base hits in 417 at-bats this season. That profile is why he grades better on the total-bases and home-run boards than his batting average alone would suggest — those boards reward damage, not just contact. Park and weather matter more for a hitter like him too, and both feed the score.

He bats from both sides

Willi is a switch-hitter, which changes how the model reads every one of his matchups. Most hitters carry a real platoon penalty — a lefty bat facing a good lefty arm is a materially worse spot, and the score drops accordingly. Willi takes the favourable side almost every night, so he doesn't collect that penalty. What moves his number instead is the quality of the arm rather than its handedness, and how the two sides of his own swing actually compare, which is rarely as balanced as the switch-hitter label suggests.

Floor and ceiling

Willi has recorded at least one hit in 77 of 115 games he's batted in — 67% — with 25 multi-hit games among them. That's about average — most regulars land somewhere near it.

Home and away

Willi is hitting .310 at home (63-for-203) and .206 on the road (44-for-214) across the season. That's a real-looking split, and it's the kind of thing that's usually part park and part noise. The model doesn't apply a blanket home-road adjustment — it prices the actual ballpark he's standing in, which is the part that carries signal.

How our calls on Willi have graded

We've ranked Willi a top-20 hitter matchup 23 times this season. He got a hit in 17 of them — 74%. That's the model reading him well, and it's the number we'd point to if you asked why we keep ranking him. It's also a season-sized sample on one player, which is smaller than it sounds; don't extrapolate it into a promise about tonight.

Where he lands across our boards

Willi was scored on 12 boards in that matchup, and the spread is the interesting part: total bases graded 71.9/100 while stolen bases came in at 18.2/100. Same player, same game, same opposing arm — different questions. A spread that wide usually means the matchup favours one kind of outcome over another, and it's the clearest argument for reading the board that matches what you actually care about.

How the model reads him

Take the name off Willi and the model still produces the same number, because it's scoring the matchup rather than the player. His splits against this handedness, what the opposing starter and bullpen actually allow, how many plate appearances he's likely to get, the park, the weather, how he's swinging lately. All of it lands on a 0–100 scale against everyone else playing today. We don't publish how it's weighted. We publish every result it produces.

What we'd flag

Three caveats worth carrying. Not every player gets a posted line — book coverage runs to about 87% for confirmed starters, so a blank line is the market's silence, not ours. Lineup changes land late enough to strand a projection published hours earlier. And judging any of this on a single night is meaningless; the model is tuned on hundreds of settled outcomes.

Recent game log

DateOppABHHRRRBI
Monday, August 31vs BAL41000
Sunday, August 30@ ATL40000
Saturday, August 29@ ATL31001
Friday, August 28@ ATL41001
Thursday, August 27@ WSH41010
Wednesday, August 26@ WSH20010
Tuesday, August 25@ WSH41010
Monday, August 24@ WSH41111
Sunday, August 23vs CLE41000
Saturday, August 22vs CLE41010
Friday, August 21vs CLE41001
Wednesday, August 19vs LAD10000

Willi Castro — FAQ

Is Willi Castro playing today?

Willi Castro isn't in a confirmed lineup on the current slate, and was last scored on Tuesday, September 1, 2026. This page updates with fresh projections as soon as he's back in one.

How have MatchWiz's calls on Willi Castro graded?

In the 23 games where our model ranked Willi a top-20 hitter matchup, he got at least one hit 17 times — 74%. Every call is graded against the real result at the line the market offered, wins and losses both.

How has Willi Castro been hitting lately?

Willi is 8-for-37 (.216) over his last 10 games, against .257 on the season across 417 at-bats in our log, with 15 home runs. The full game-by-game log is on this page.

Which MatchWiz boards does Willi Castro appear on?

Willi was scored on 12 boards in his last matchup — total bases, singles, hits, runs, walks. Each one asks a different question about the same game, so his score can be strong on one and weak on another.

Are Willi Castro's projections betting advice?

No. Every number on this page is a research signal from a statistical model, published alongside its graded record so you can judge it yourself. The model is re-tuned weekly and can be wrong on any given day. Nothing here is a guaranteed outcome. 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).

Projections are a research signal from our model, graded against real box-score results — not betting advice. 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).